Pinned
At +50% passive, it's crazy, but if it ever reaches 85%, it'll be interesting to see what that means.
Right now, value investing still works for stocks not included in major indices. For those in the top 100, the P/E ratio has become useless.
janklosowski.substack.com/p/index-inv...
Right now, value investing still works for stocks not included in major indices. For those in the top 100, the P/E ratio has become useless.
janklosowski.substack.com/p/index-inv...
46.5% of S&P 500 companies have at least one warning sign.
56 companies have 3+ warning signs.
The idea of index Investing is to outsource analysis to others. The problem starts when the majority of investors outsource, without realizing they’re now those who create the market.
56 companies have 3+ warning signs.
The idea of index Investing is to outsource analysis to others. The problem starts when the majority of investors outsource, without realizing they’re now those who create the market.
December 22, 2025 at 8:16 PM
46.5% of S&P 500 companies have at least one warning sign.
56 companies have 3+ warning signs.
The idea of index Investing is to outsource analysis to others. The problem starts when the majority of investors outsource, without realizing they’re now those who create the market.
56 companies have 3+ warning signs.
The idea of index Investing is to outsource analysis to others. The problem starts when the majority of investors outsource, without realizing they’re now those who create the market.
The key concept here is "risk/reward ratio."
How likely is it that silver will never be lower?
At this point, what is more likely: 2x up or 2x down?
Silver is not Bitcoin, and supply is not finite.
How likely is it that silver will never be lower?
At this point, what is more likely: 2x up or 2x down?
Silver is not Bitcoin, and supply is not finite.
December 22, 2025 at 2:45 PM
The key concept here is "risk/reward ratio."
How likely is it that silver will never be lower?
At this point, what is more likely: 2x up or 2x down?
Silver is not Bitcoin, and supply is not finite.
How likely is it that silver will never be lower?
At this point, what is more likely: 2x up or 2x down?
Silver is not Bitcoin, and supply is not finite.
The current global fertility rate is 2.25. This is how many kids the average woman has. As long as this rate is no smaller than 2.1—the replacement level—the population will be growing, and that’s the demand side of the real estate market. janklosowski.substack.com/p/the-50-ye...
December 20, 2025 at 7:18 PM
The current global fertility rate is 2.25. This is how many kids the average woman has. As long as this rate is no smaller than 2.1—the replacement level—the population will be growing, and that’s the demand side of the real estate market. janklosowski.substack.com/p/the-50-ye...
You'll be amazing at predicting $MSTR price if you understand what it is:
It's a leveraged Bitcoin without margin calls.
It's a leveraged Bitcoin without margin calls.
December 19, 2025 at 4:15 PM
You'll be amazing at predicting $MSTR price if you understand what it is:
It's a leveraged Bitcoin without margin calls.
It's a leveraged Bitcoin without margin calls.
🇪🇺 EU bans US ETFs.
Why?
EU wants ETFs to project future performance (KID) using language that, according to US law, would expose them to litigation risk.
Yes, the US gets the market and the EU doesn't.
Result:
You can't buy a safe ETF, but you can buy risky CFDs on it.
Why?
EU wants ETFs to project future performance (KID) using language that, according to US law, would expose them to litigation risk.
Yes, the US gets the market and the EU doesn't.
Result:
You can't buy a safe ETF, but you can buy risky CFDs on it.
December 19, 2025 at 2:48 PM
🇪🇺 EU bans US ETFs.
Why?
EU wants ETFs to project future performance (KID) using language that, according to US law, would expose them to litigation risk.
Yes, the US gets the market and the EU doesn't.
Result:
You can't buy a safe ETF, but you can buy risky CFDs on it.
Why?
EU wants ETFs to project future performance (KID) using language that, according to US law, would expose them to litigation risk.
Yes, the US gets the market and the EU doesn't.
Result:
You can't buy a safe ETF, but you can buy risky CFDs on it.
Even 30-year mortgage makes you asking question about how the real estate market may look like in 30 years.
The current prediction is that by the year 2050, even the global average will already be below 2.1: janklosowski.substack.com/p/the-50-ye...
The current prediction is that by the year 2050, even the global average will already be below 2.1: janklosowski.substack.com/p/the-50-ye...
December 17, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Even 30-year mortgage makes you asking question about how the real estate market may look like in 30 years.
The current prediction is that by the year 2050, even the global average will already be below 2.1: janklosowski.substack.com/p/the-50-ye...
The current prediction is that by the year 2050, even the global average will already be below 2.1: janklosowski.substack.com/p/the-50-ye...
Chart Generator got some cool updates:
- Stocks can now also show: P/E, P/B, and Mcap
- Shortcuts for popular market indexes
- Labels are not overlapping anymore
- You can set chart colors
More on the way. Request features!
$BTC $NDX $GSPC $AMZN $RUT
- Stocks can now also show: P/E, P/B, and Mcap
- Shortcuts for popular market indexes
- Labels are not overlapping anymore
- You can set chart colors
More on the way. Request features!
$BTC $NDX $GSPC $AMZN $RUT
December 17, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Chart Generator got some cool updates:
- Stocks can now also show: P/E, P/B, and Mcap
- Shortcuts for popular market indexes
- Labels are not overlapping anymore
- You can set chart colors
More on the way. Request features!
$BTC $NDX $GSPC $AMZN $RUT
- Stocks can now also show: P/E, P/B, and Mcap
- Shortcuts for popular market indexes
- Labels are not overlapping anymore
- You can set chart colors
More on the way. Request features!
$BTC $NDX $GSPC $AMZN $RUT
December 17, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Zuck cooks. $META $GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT
December 16, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Zuck cooks. $META $GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT
Substack has reached 100 subscribers. Thank you.
First monthly research is coming soon. janklosowski.substack.com
First monthly research is coming soon. janklosowski.substack.com
December 16, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Substack has reached 100 subscribers. Thank you.
First monthly research is coming soon. janklosowski.substack.com
First monthly research is coming soon. janklosowski.substack.com
There are 4 robotics ETFs: $ROBO, $BOTZ, $ARTY, $IBOT
Currently underperforming the S&P, but trending up. I plan to dive deeper into their holdings. I'm likely not aware of most of those companies, especially from Asian markets. For now, the tiny $IBOT has my attention.
Currently underperforming the S&P, but trending up. I plan to dive deeper into their holdings. I'm likely not aware of most of those companies, especially from Asian markets. For now, the tiny $IBOT has my attention.
December 14, 2025 at 12:30 PM
There are 4 robotics ETFs: $ROBO, $BOTZ, $ARTY, $IBOT
Currently underperforming the S&P, but trending up. I plan to dive deeper into their holdings. I'm likely not aware of most of those companies, especially from Asian markets. For now, the tiny $IBOT has my attention.
Currently underperforming the S&P, but trending up. I plan to dive deeper into their holdings. I'm likely not aware of most of those companies, especially from Asian markets. For now, the tiny $IBOT has my attention.
Bitcoin ETFs stole some volume, but don't compete with $MSTR directly. Most people get the "exposure to Bitcoin" part, but they miss the main value proposition:
Leverage without a margin call.
janklosowski.substack.com/i/179412331...
Leverage without a margin call.
janklosowski.substack.com/i/179412331...
December 13, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Bitcoin ETFs stole some volume, but don't compete with $MSTR directly. Most people get the "exposure to Bitcoin" part, but they miss the main value proposition:
Leverage without a margin call.
janklosowski.substack.com/i/179412331...
Leverage without a margin call.
janklosowski.substack.com/i/179412331...
Is insider trading on prediction markets a good thing?
If the goal is accuracy, this is exactly what you want.
The gambling vs information framing likely misses the nuance that not all markets are the same: a meteorologist betting on the weather is not the same as a guy betting on his own divorce.
If the goal is accuracy, this is exactly what you want.
The gambling vs information framing likely misses the nuance that not all markets are the same: a meteorologist betting on the weather is not the same as a guy betting on his own divorce.
December 13, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Is insider trading on prediction markets a good thing?
If the goal is accuracy, this is exactly what you want.
The gambling vs information framing likely misses the nuance that not all markets are the same: a meteorologist betting on the weather is not the same as a guy betting on his own divorce.
If the goal is accuracy, this is exactly what you want.
The gambling vs information framing likely misses the nuance that not all markets are the same: a meteorologist betting on the weather is not the same as a guy betting on his own divorce.
There was no COVID vaccine for cinema theaters.
Apparently, going to the cinema was just a social habit that, once forcefully stopped, never found its way back in the digital economy.
Apparently, going to the cinema was just a social habit that, once forcefully stopped, never found its way back in the digital economy.
December 12, 2025 at 8:17 PM
There was no COVID vaccine for cinema theaters.
Apparently, going to the cinema was just a social habit that, once forcefully stopped, never found its way back in the digital economy.
Apparently, going to the cinema was just a social habit that, once forcefully stopped, never found its way back in the digital economy.
According to this chart, investors shouldn't expect any returns from the S&P 500 in the next decade. Bitcoin in every portfolio.
janklosowski.substack.com/p/the-windo...
janklosowski.substack.com/p/the-windo...
December 12, 2025 at 2:48 PM
According to this chart, investors shouldn't expect any returns from the S&P 500 in the next decade. Bitcoin in every portfolio.
janklosowski.substack.com/p/the-windo...
janklosowski.substack.com/p/the-windo...
"Flight to assets" makes traditional fundamental techniques like relying on P/B ratios useless.
Buffett-era readings:
- <1.0 → Undervalued or distressed
- 1.0-3.0 → Normal (banks, industrials)
- 3.0-5.0 → Premium quality businesses
- 5.0+ → Extremely expensive
$TSLA $NFLX $COST $IBM $META $AMZN
Buffett-era readings:
- <1.0 → Undervalued or distressed
- 1.0-3.0 → Normal (banks, industrials)
- 3.0-5.0 → Premium quality businesses
- 5.0+ → Extremely expensive
$TSLA $NFLX $COST $IBM $META $AMZN
December 11, 2025 at 2:27 PM
"Flight to assets" makes traditional fundamental techniques like relying on P/B ratios useless.
Buffett-era readings:
- <1.0 → Undervalued or distressed
- 1.0-3.0 → Normal (banks, industrials)
- 3.0-5.0 → Premium quality businesses
- 5.0+ → Extremely expensive
$TSLA $NFLX $COST $IBM $META $AMZN
Buffett-era readings:
- <1.0 → Undervalued or distressed
- 1.0-3.0 → Normal (banks, industrials)
- 3.0-5.0 → Premium quality businesses
- 5.0+ → Extremely expensive
$TSLA $NFLX $COST $IBM $META $AMZN
The biggest misunderstanding about $MSTR is how it fails. It's NOT insolvency. The debt could be fully paid back with just 24% of the Bitcoin holdings.
Bonds and preferreds are risk-off.
The entire risk is carried by common stockholders. janklosowski.substack.com/i/179412331...
Bonds and preferreds are risk-off.
The entire risk is carried by common stockholders. janklosowski.substack.com/i/179412331...
December 10, 2025 at 8:13 PM
The biggest misunderstanding about $MSTR is how it fails. It's NOT insolvency. The debt could be fully paid back with just 24% of the Bitcoin holdings.
Bonds and preferreds are risk-off.
The entire risk is carried by common stockholders. janklosowski.substack.com/i/179412331...
Bonds and preferreds are risk-off.
The entire risk is carried by common stockholders. janklosowski.substack.com/i/179412331...
Market trades $MSTR preferreds at premium or discount directly representing their seniority: $STRF > $STRC > $STRK > $STRD
janklosowski.substack.com/i/179412331...
janklosowski.substack.com/i/179412331...
December 10, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Market trades $MSTR preferreds at premium or discount directly representing their seniority: $STRF > $STRC > $STRK > $STRD
janklosowski.substack.com/i/179412331...
janklosowski.substack.com/i/179412331...
Each trade is an independent event. The market doesn’t owe you a win just because you’ve lost a few in a row.
December 9, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Each trade is an independent event. The market doesn’t owe you a win just because you’ve lost a few in a row.
There is a lot of talk about $MSTR these days, but do you really understand what Saylor is doing, and what the risks of his layered capital structure are?
I didn’t, so I dove to the very bottom.
Understand the math behind, and enjoy the show:
janklosowski.substack.com/p/what-is-s...
I didn’t, so I dove to the very bottom.
Understand the math behind, and enjoy the show:
janklosowski.substack.com/p/what-is-s...
December 9, 2025 at 2:04 PM
There is a lot of talk about $MSTR these days, but do you really understand what Saylor is doing, and what the risks of his layered capital structure are?
I didn’t, so I dove to the very bottom.
Understand the math behind, and enjoy the show:
janklosowski.substack.com/p/what-is-s...
I didn’t, so I dove to the very bottom.
Understand the math behind, and enjoy the show:
janklosowski.substack.com/p/what-is-s...
Capital in different assets for the last year:
$GOOGL $GLD $NVDA $BTC $MSTR
This beautiful chart has been generated with chartgenerator.org
I built it for my articles, but let me know what features it misses, and I'll see what I can do.
$GOOGL $GLD $NVDA $BTC $MSTR
This beautiful chart has been generated with chartgenerator.org
I built it for my articles, but let me know what features it misses, and I'll see what I can do.
December 8, 2025 at 8:11 PM
Capital in different assets for the last year:
$GOOGL $GLD $NVDA $BTC $MSTR
This beautiful chart has been generated with chartgenerator.org
I built it for my articles, but let me know what features it misses, and I'll see what I can do.
$GOOGL $GLD $NVDA $BTC $MSTR
This beautiful chart has been generated with chartgenerator.org
I built it for my articles, but let me know what features it misses, and I'll see what I can do.
In 5 years, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF $VOO has doubled the invested capital.
If you measure S&P 500 against hard assets like gold or even housing, the picture is less impressive.
If you measure S&P 500 against hard assets like gold or even housing, the picture is less impressive.
December 7, 2025 at 1:26 PM
In 5 years, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF $VOO has doubled the invested capital.
If you measure S&P 500 against hard assets like gold or even housing, the picture is less impressive.
If you measure S&P 500 against hard assets like gold or even housing, the picture is less impressive.
At +50% passive, it's crazy, but if it ever reaches 85%, it'll be interesting to see what that means.
Right now, value investing still works for stocks not included in major indices. For those in the top 100, the P/E ratio has become useless.
janklosowski.substack.com/p/index-inv...
Right now, value investing still works for stocks not included in major indices. For those in the top 100, the P/E ratio has become useless.
janklosowski.substack.com/p/index-inv...
December 6, 2025 at 8:08 PM
At +50% passive, it's crazy, but if it ever reaches 85%, it'll be interesting to see what that means.
Right now, value investing still works for stocks not included in major indices. For those in the top 100, the P/E ratio has become useless.
janklosowski.substack.com/p/index-inv...
Right now, value investing still works for stocks not included in major indices. For those in the top 100, the P/E ratio has become useless.
janklosowski.substack.com/p/index-inv...
"When fiat is inflated it slowly goes to zero.
When it is frozen it temporarily goes to zero.
And when it is seized it instantly goes to zero.
But hard money cannot be inflated, frozen, or seized." @balajis
When it is frozen it temporarily goes to zero.
And when it is seized it instantly goes to zero.
But hard money cannot be inflated, frozen, or seized." @balajis
December 6, 2025 at 2:44 PM
"When fiat is inflated it slowly goes to zero.
When it is frozen it temporarily goes to zero.
And when it is seized it instantly goes to zero.
But hard money cannot be inflated, frozen, or seized." @balajis
When it is frozen it temporarily goes to zero.
And when it is seized it instantly goes to zero.
But hard money cannot be inflated, frozen, or seized." @balajis
1/ Benjamin Graham's value investing assumed investors do research, make bets, allocate capital to companies they believe will succeed. But index funds don't do any of that. They buy $TSLA because it's big. Market cap becomes the only metric that matters.
December 5, 2025 at 8:16 PM
1/ Benjamin Graham's value investing assumed investors do research, make bets, allocate capital to companies they believe will succeed. But index funds don't do any of that. They buy $TSLA because it's big. Market cap becomes the only metric that matters.