Kyle Marquardt
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kailmarkvart.bsky.social
Kyle Marquardt
@kailmarkvart.bsky.social
930 followers 900 following 120 posts
Professor, @sampol.bsky.social; Project Manager, @vdeminstitute.bsky.social; Iowan; klmarquardt.com
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kailmarkvart.bsky.social
Kyle Marquardt @kailmarkvart.bsky.social · Aug 26
Excited to introduce a new working paper with @danpemstein.com, @chknutsen.bsky.social and other colleagues not on Bluesky! We use experimental and observational data to investigate the degree to which general biases affect expert perceptions of specific cases. 🧵 1/17 v-dem.net/media/public...
Title: Global Trends and Expert Perceptions: Pessimism and the Assessment of Democratic Backsliding. Abstract There are longstanding concerns about biases in expert-coded data. Here we attempt to causally identify the effect of these biases, specifically evaluating the claim that pessimism about global democracy affects expert coding of democracy locally in specific countries. Observational analyses of data from an original survey of experts demonstrate that perceptions of global and local democratic trends are indeed correlated. However, an embedded experiment yields no evidence of a causal effect of perceptions of global democracy trends on perceptions of local trends. Moreover, we find little evidence that pessimism about global trends substantially affects actual coding behavior with regard to specific countries. Together, these results alleviate some concerns about expert biases both in widely-used measures of democracy and more broadly.
kailmarkvart.bsky.social
Turkey, 26.10-06.11.25
Lion carving on On Gözlü Bridge, Diyarbakir Yoros Castle, Istanbul Mardin panorama Sunset in Mardin
November 9, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
gonultol.bsky.social
while turning a blind eye to his assault on Turkish democracy— has only emboldened his crackdown on opponents at home. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/o...
Opinion | The Indispensable Erdogan
www.nytimes.com
November 6, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
skaaning.bsky.social
New article out on the relationship between different dimensions of state capacity and modes of democratic breakdown.
polstudies.bsky.social Political Studies @polstudies.bsky.social · Oct 10
How do different forms of state capacity protect democracy? D Andersen, @chknutsen.bsky.social & @skaaning.bsky.social argue coercive & administrative capacity affect stability in distinct ways depending on threat: buff.ly/2yUrCqu

@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
October 23, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
adambonica.bsky.social
My response to the NYT’s “moderate to win” argument: The data shows the strategy is tapped out. Being seen as moderate by voters doesn’t boost votes, replacing every progressive with moderates would net 0 seats, and the graveyard of defeated D incumbents if full of moderates, not progressives.
The New York Times Argues “Moving to the Center Is the Way to Win.” But the Data Shows the Strategy Is Tapped Out.
Democrats already run moderates in nearly every swing district. It's not enough. A data-driven response to the case for centrism as a core electoral strategy.
data4democracy.substack.com
October 20, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
jacobnyrup.bsky.social
We are hiring PhDs and postdocs to work on the ERC project GETGOV, where I am the PI.

We will investigate governing elites since 1789. I am sure that it will be a lot of fun and result in great research!

Postdocs: www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...

PhDs: www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...
Postdoctoral Fellow in Political Science (3-4 years) (288628) | University of Oslo
Job title: Postdoctoral Fellow in Political Science (3-4 years) (288628), Employer: University of Oslo, Deadline: Monday, November 17, 2025
www.jobbnorge.no
October 20, 2025 at 3:27 PM
kailmarkvart.bsky.social
Faroe Islands, late September 2025
View of Kunoy from Klakkur Black sheep eating grass near Kirkjubøur View from Slættaratindur Rainbow over Nólsoy
October 14, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
en.zona.media
@penguinrandomhouse.bsky.social advertises the new book by Yascha Mounk as explaining “why the noble goals of identity politics are doomed to fail.”

In Russia, a slight twist: some passages had to be censored because LGBTQ+ is deemed “extremist”

en.zona.media/article/2025...
Burned identity. How a book on identity politics was censored in Russia due to laws banning LGBTQ+ as “extremist”
The Russian publisher Individuum has removed all references to LGBTQ+ people from its translation of “The Identity Trap”, a new book by the political scientist Yascha Mounk. The mo...
en.zona.media
October 14, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
priyadarshi-amar.bsky.social
I'm thrilled to announce my first publication, as well as my first APSR and RCT paper. I am thankful to everyone who contributed to improving this project. 🙏🙏
October 10, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
louisabo.bsky.social
New WP! We find: Overall male and female cabinet members have the same backgrounds, but women in high ranking positions, and women in contexts with few women in politics have backgrounds that align more with the archetypal politician. With @jacobnyrup.bsky.social

tinyurl.com/s4hy3htk
October 9, 2025 at 10:52 AM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
isadesisto.bsky.social
Check out my new piece on Moldovan 🇲🇩 elections with @grigopop.bsky.social
October 5, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
dlknowles.bsky.social
I visited the apartment building ICE raided on Tuesday today. Story to come, but you can walk right in. Half of the apartments have no doors on them. Children's stuff abandoned in some flats. *Citizen* residents told me they were arrested and held for hours in zipties. This is America
October 4, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
sampol.bsky.social
Klart for Sampolkonferansen 2025 og geopolitisk spenning i en usikker tid. Organisert av våre dyktige masterstudenter 🙌

Konferansen fyller 40 år i år! Slik bygges akademiske tradisjoner og positivt omdømme 👏👏👏
October 2, 2025 at 6:59 AM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
brendannyhan.bsky.social
🚨 New Bright Line Watch report on state of US democracy
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...

-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017

Full thread of results below
October 1, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
grigopop.bsky.social
Moldovan voters have given the pro-EU PAS (of President Maia Sandu) a narrow but clear parliamentary majority, despite Russia hybrid warfare tactics. Let's hope that the planned opposition protests are not a foil for even more aggressive Russian tactics.
September 29, 2025 at 1:04 AM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
tompepinsky.com
Przeworski says it cleanly, clearly, and convincingly.

What then must we do?

www.dissentmagazine.org/article/how-...
The Democratic establishment is clearly betting that Republicans will offer them an electoral victory while they attend the wedding parties of billionaires. The only vision for the Democratic Party originates from its left wing, which is vigorously censured by its mainstream. It may well be that the Democratic leadership is correct in thinking that the best strategy is to do nothing and waiting for MAGA to fail. But this, like MAGA, is a “back again” ideology, one of “restoring” democracy rather than transforming the conditions that generated the present disaster. To restore democracy, it needs to be reformed. This is the project we need.
September 27, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
gldinstitute.bsky.social
CALL FOR PROPOSALS | Open Worldwide 🌍

9th Annual GLD Conference

📍 Aspenäs Herrgård, Gothenburg, Sweden
📅 June 10-12, 2026
🎯 Theme: "Participation and Decision-Making: Studies on Citizen Engagement and Mobilization in Local Governance"

Apply Here: bit.ly/4gxyjdO
September 24, 2025 at 10:31 PM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
jpaulgoode.bsky.social
Important section of the latest CPCS, dedicated to the challenges of “emergency response research” by Ukrainian and Polish researchers following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
cpcs.bsky.social Communist and Post-Communist Studies @cpcs.bsky.social · Sep 22
The September issue is now online! Featuring a special section on "Emergency Response Research and Documentation in Comparative Perspective," with guest ed.s Natalia Otrishchenko and Anna Wylegała

The section draws on the experience of Polish and Ukrainian research teams following Feb 2022.
(1/2)
Table of Contents for September issue of Communist and Post-Communist Studies
September 23, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
nicholasgrossman.bsky.social
I push back against doomsaying and defeatism because, first, it’s misleadingly false, and second, the false belief makes it more likely to come true.

That doesn’t mean there’s nothing to worry about. It means don’t deny successful societal resistance and grant him power he doesn’t have.
September 22, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
jeremymberg.bsky.social
Now with comments... Lots of comments

(A long thread)

1/n
September 22, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
bcburden.bsky.social
My department @uwmadison.bsky.social is hiring an assistant professor with expertise in environmental politics. Send us your application. jobs.wisc.edu/jobs/assista...
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science - Madison, Wisconsin, United States
Current Employees: If you are currently employed at any of the Universities of Wisconsin, log in to Workday to apply through the internal application process.Job Category:FacultyEmployment Type:Regula...
jobs.wisc.edu
September 13, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
jacobmontgomery.bsky.social
I'm looking for some good example articles that sort of announce or release datasets. Specifically this in the area of comparative politics. Any suggestions?
September 16, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
aehudson.bsky.social
You can find the report here: interactive.idea.int/gsod-2025
I'd be glad to hear what you think about it.
The Global State of Democracy 2025
The Global State of Democracy 2025 report from International IDEA
interactive.idea.int
September 15, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
aehudson.bsky.social
As you've likely heard, today is the International Day of Democracy. A good day to read a report about the Global State of Democracy? I know that can seem like a herculean labour one would rather walk past.
September 15, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
professormpersson.bsky.social
New paper with Anders Sundell published in West European Politics: Ideological bias in policy implementation: public opinion and policy outcomes in 43 democracies www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Ideological bias in policy implementation: public opinion and policy outcomes in 43 democracies
Previous research has documented a conservative bias in politicians’ perceptions of public opinion. Do similar biases also exist in policy implementation, relative to public opinion? In this articl...
www.tandfonline.com
September 3, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Reposted by Kyle Marquardt
rmkubinec.bsky.social
OK Sunday 8 am is not the best panel time. I get it.

BUT tomorrow I'm presenting idealstan alongside 3 other banger papers on ideal points & measurement modeling.

You want to know the latest & greatest in quantitative measurement, this is it.

West 120 @ 8 am 🫡

#apsa2025
papers for panel
September 13, 2025 at 8:21 PM