Jurgen Appelo
@jurgenappelo.bsky.social
Redesigning the future of work—no hype, no hierarchies, no hegemonies. Aiming for open systems, responsible autonomy, and decentralized power.
https://substack.jurgenappelo.com/
https://substack.jurgenappelo.com/
There is no simple left or right in politics and there is definitely no left or right in organizational design. There are only systems that must balance four essential tensions to remain viable.
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/four-tensi...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/four-tensi...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/four-tensi...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/four-tensi...
The Four Tensions of Sociotechnical Systems
From Political Compass to Viable System Model: Autonomy, Control, Adaptation, and Purpose
substack.jurgenappelo.com
November 4, 2025 at 1:32 PM
There is no simple left or right in politics and there is definitely no left or right in organizational design. There are only systems that must balance four essential tensions to remain viable.
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/four-tensi...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/four-tensi...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/four-tensi...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/four-tensi...
Algorithms confidently extrapolate from historical patterns, while humans confidently apply their pet frameworks. Sometimes the best expertise is knowing when to ignore all experts.
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/my-18-mont...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/my-18-mont...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/my-18-mont...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/my-18-mont...
My 18-Month Battle With Expert Hallucinations
A cautionary tale of how both AI and human experts can be completely wrong
substack.jurgenappelo.com
October 28, 2025 at 9:33 AM
Algorithms confidently extrapolate from historical patterns, while humans confidently apply their pet frameworks. Sometimes the best expertise is knowing when to ignore all experts.
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/my-18-mont...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/my-18-mont...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/my-18-mont...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/my-18-mont...
Is stopping to ask "why" a luxury, or our only path forward?
thehumanplaybook.substack.com/p/is-it-time...
thehumanplaybook.substack.com/p/is-it-time...
Is It Time for a New AI?
A Call to Stop the Slop
thehumanplaybook.substack.com
October 27, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Is stopping to ask "why" a luxury, or our only path forward?
thehumanplaybook.substack.com/p/is-it-time...
thehumanplaybook.substack.com/p/is-it-time...
Infrastructure (chips, data centers) is booming while investments in foundation models face a potential bubble due to unclear ROI.
theagentarchitect.substack.com/p/ai-infrast...
theagentarchitect.substack.com/p/ai-infrast...
Beyond the AI Bubble: The Infrastructure Layer Everyone's Missing
Why enterprise platforms deploying 50,000+ agents matter more than AGI speculation
theagentarchitect.substack.com
October 25, 2025 at 6:30 AM
Infrastructure (chips, data centers) is booming while investments in foundation models face a potential bubble due to unclear ROI.
theagentarchitect.substack.com/p/ai-infrast...
theagentarchitect.substack.com/p/ai-infrast...
Appelo's Law:
read.fluxcollective.org/p/212
read.fluxcollective.org/p/212
🌀🗞 The FLUX Review, Ep. 212
October 23rd, 2025
read.fluxcollective.org
October 24, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Appelo's Law:
read.fluxcollective.org/p/212
read.fluxcollective.org/p/212
The outrage over AI-assisted writing is nothing more than performative nonsense that exposes people as the snobbish critics nobody asked for.
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/you-cannot...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/you-cannot...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/you-cannot...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/you-cannot...
You Cannot Please Everyone
Those who criticize AI-assisted writing are snobbish fools failing to grasp the idea of a target audience.
substack.jurgenappelo.com
October 24, 2025 at 2:31 PM
The outrage over AI-assisted writing is nothing more than performative nonsense that exposes people as the snobbish critics nobody asked for.
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/you-cannot...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/you-cannot...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/you-cannot...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/you-cannot...
After seven months of going all-in on Substack, I've officially reached bestseller status with over 100 paying subscribers supporting my writing journey. MVP = ✅
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/from-zero-...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/from-zero-...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/from-zero-...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/from-zero-...
From Zero to Substack Bestseller
My Seven-Month Journey to 100 Paying Subscribers
substack.jurgenappelo.com
October 23, 2025 at 12:31 PM
After seven months of going all-in on Substack, I've officially reached bestseller status with over 100 paying subscribers supporting my writing journey. MVP = ✅
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/from-zero-...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/from-zero-...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/from-zero-...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/from-zero-...
Brilliant strategic advice.
First Law of Value in the Agentic Era: Proximity to User Intent
Part 1 explores how competitive advantage shifts from owning systems of record to capturing where intent begins and orchestrating work from there. At Dreamforce, Salesforce moved the moat upstream.
www.decodingdiscontinuity.com
October 22, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Brilliant strategic advice.
It's us humans who will have to deal with the wicked problems.
thestillwandering.substack.com/p/5-question...
thestillwandering.substack.com/p/5-question...
5 Questions to Reintegrate Your Individuality
Factories needed consistent output, so their workers needed to be predictable, reliable, and remarkably interchangeable.
thestillwandering.substack.com
October 22, 2025 at 10:31 AM
It's us humans who will have to deal with the wicked problems.
thestillwandering.substack.com/p/5-question...
thestillwandering.substack.com/p/5-question...
It's often not the AI tech failing, but poor business integration and implementation that cause projects to stumble.
www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/why-everyo...
www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/why-everyo...
Why Everyone Misread MIT’s 95% AI “Failure” Statistic?
The study doesn’t reveal a crisis—it documents AI’s normal learning curve, the same adoption bottlenecks that shaped PCs and the internet.
www.2ndorderthinkers.com
October 21, 2025 at 2:31 PM
It's often not the AI tech failing, but poor business integration and implementation that cause projects to stumble.
www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/why-everyo...
www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/why-everyo...
The "year of AI agents" is turning into a decade.
unhypedai.substack.com/p/the-decade...
unhypedai.substack.com/p/the-decade...
The Decade of Agents
From brain to body. Coherence over autonomy.
unhypedai.substack.com
October 21, 2025 at 12:31 PM
The "year of AI agents" is turning into a decade.
unhypedai.substack.com/p/the-decade...
unhypedai.substack.com/p/the-decade...
AI systems already outperform the average person in logic, humility, and basic coherence—yet our technophobia prevents us from acknowledging this.
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/the-stocha...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/the-stocha...
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substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/the-stocha...
The Stochastic Parrot vs. the Sophistic Monkey: Why I Trust AI More Than Most Humans
In a world drowning in human bias and misinformation, artificial intelligence offers surprisingly reasonable answers.
substack.jurgenappelo.com
October 20, 2025 at 4:30 PM
AI systems already outperform the average person in logic, humility, and basic coherence—yet our technophobia prevents us from acknowledging this.
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/the-stocha...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/the-stocha...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/the-stocha...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/the-stocha...
AI tech explanations are everywhere. But culture, processes, and context are the real challenge.
#AILeadership #OrgChange #DigitalTransformation
www.fullstackhr.io/p/making-ai-...
#AILeadership #OrgChange #DigitalTransformation
www.fullstackhr.io/p/making-ai-...
Making AI Adoption Work: A Practical Series - part 1
The 5 Critical Foundations (That Most Organizations Skip)
www.fullstackhr.io
October 15, 2025 at 10:32 AM
AI tech explanations are everywhere. But culture, processes, and context are the real challenge.
#AILeadership #OrgChange #DigitalTransformation
www.fullstackhr.io/p/making-ai-...
#AILeadership #OrgChange #DigitalTransformation
www.fullstackhr.io/p/making-ai-...
Are algorithms increasingly shaping your reality?
diamantinoalmeida.substack.com/p/a-reflecti...
diamantinoalmeida.substack.com/p/a-reflecti...
A reflection on AI, power, and the path of least resistance
... the way we’re being shaped, not by the tools we use, but by the hands that control them.
diamantinoalmeida.substack.com
October 15, 2025 at 8:32 AM
Are algorithms increasingly shaping your reality?
diamantinoalmeida.substack.com/p/a-reflecti...
diamantinoalmeida.substack.com/p/a-reflecti...
OpenAI is the AI ecosystem's keystone. But if capital or infrastructure fails, the entire network instantly collapses. A single point of failure for our future. #AIVulnerability #TechRisk #OpenAICrisis
www.decodingdiscontinuity.com/p/king-sam-a...
www.decodingdiscontinuity.com/p/king-sam-a...
King Sam and AI Circularity: How Concentrated Bets on OpenAI Create Systemic Risk
Vendor financing in infrastructure is normal. The scale and concentration in AI are unprecedented. So is the dependence on one actor’s durable growth moat.
www.decodingdiscontinuity.com
October 15, 2025 at 6:31 AM
OpenAI is the AI ecosystem's keystone. But if capital or infrastructure fails, the entire network instantly collapses. A single point of failure for our future. #AIVulnerability #TechRisk #OpenAICrisis
www.decodingdiscontinuity.com/p/king-sam-a...
www.decodingdiscontinuity.com/p/king-sam-a...
AGI: The goalposts keep shrinking. Soon, 'victory' will just mean 'fools those consuming AI slop.' Are we really aiming for intelligence?
#AGI #AIReality #MovingGoalposts
www.alilybit.com/p/the-seven-...
#AGI #AIReality #MovingGoalposts
www.alilybit.com/p/the-seven-...
The Seven Trillion Dollar Scam
Why I Refuse to Call Degeneration Progress
www.alilybit.com
October 14, 2025 at 2:35 PM
AGI: The goalposts keep shrinking. Soon, 'victory' will just mean 'fools those consuming AI slop.' Are we really aiming for intelligence?
#AGI #AIReality #MovingGoalposts
www.alilybit.com/p/the-seven-...
#AGI #AIReality #MovingGoalposts
www.alilybit.com/p/the-seven-...
AI isn't just new tech; it's reframing work. Jobs become capabilities, blending human & AI agents. Orchestration is the new superpower. #FutureOfWork #AIImpact #WorkRevolution
wrk3.substack.com/p/the-impact...
wrk3.substack.com/p/the-impact...
The Impact of AI on Work (Isn't About Jobs)
Why industries reshape first - and what that means for you. Join our free Work 3 Webinar on Thursday 16 October to explore this shift.
wrk3.substack.com
October 14, 2025 at 6:31 AM
AI isn't just new tech; it's reframing work. Jobs become capabilities, blending human & AI agents. Orchestration is the new superpower. #FutureOfWork #AIImpact #WorkRevolution
wrk3.substack.com/p/the-impact...
wrk3.substack.com/p/the-impact...
Autonomy without understanding is abdication. Giving AI power to decide without capacity to care leads to decisions without responsibility. We risk delegation without accountability. #AIethics #TechResponsibility #FutureOfAI
When Autonomy Becomes Abdication
A new paper from TUM exposes the paradox at the heart of AI autonomy.
unhypedai.substack.com
October 13, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Autonomy without understanding is abdication. Giving AI power to decide without capacity to care leads to decisions without responsibility. We risk delegation without accountability. #AIethics #TechResponsibility #FutureOfAI
The danger is not AI. It's certain humans with AI.
www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/superintel...
www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/superintel...
Superintelligence and the Decline of Human Interdependence
What happens to humanity when we no longer need each other?
www.conspicuouscognition.com
October 11, 2025 at 4:20 PM
The danger is not AI. It's certain humans with AI.
www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/superintel...
www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/superintel...
Reframing the learning journey.
aimaker.substack.com/p/learn-ai-a...
aimaker.substack.com/p/learn-ai-a...
NotebookLM Got Crazy Powerful: Here's How I Used It to Learn Something Really Hard
And some useful prompts to customize my learning.
aimaker.substack.com
October 11, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Reframing the learning journey.
aimaker.substack.com/p/learn-ai-a...
aimaker.substack.com/p/learn-ai-a...
I talked about organizations as shapeshifters years ago. Nice to see the metaphor still holds.
decision.substack.com/p/chimeric-t...
decision.substack.com/p/chimeric-t...
Chimeric Talent: The Workforce AI Is Quietly Creating
Leading when your employees become role shapeshifters
decision.substack.com
October 10, 2025 at 8:36 AM
I talked about organizations as shapeshifters years ago. Nice to see the metaphor still holds.
decision.substack.com/p/chimeric-t...
decision.substack.com/p/chimeric-t...
As usual, Kevin Kelly's thinking is years ahead of everyone else.
kevinkelly.substack.com/p/paying-ais...
kevinkelly.substack.com/p/paying-ais...
Paying AIs to Read My Books
Some authors have it backwards.
kevinkelly.substack.com
October 10, 2025 at 6:31 AM
As usual, Kevin Kelly's thinking is years ahead of everyone else.
kevinkelly.substack.com/p/paying-ais...
kevinkelly.substack.com/p/paying-ais...
Scrum was the bullet train of work management—fast, revolutionary, and unstoppable. Now it's the family minivan blocking the left lane.
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/scrum-is-d...
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substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/scrum-is-d...
Scrum Is Done. Finished. History.
We're going to need dual-track business agility.
substack.jurgenappelo.com
October 9, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Scrum was the bullet train of work management—fast, revolutionary, and unstoppable. Now it's the family minivan blocking the left lane.
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/scrum-is-d...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/scrum-is-d...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/scrum-is-d...
substack.jurgenappelo.com/p/scrum-is-d...
Your software skills matter more than ever. #VibeCoding #SoftwareEngineering #TechSkills
simonw.substack.com/p/vibe-engin...
simonw.substack.com/p/vibe-engin...
Vibe engineering
Plus news from OpenAI DevDay, GPT-5 Pro, gpt-image-1-mini, and Python 3.14
simonw.substack.com
October 9, 2025 at 10:32 AM
Your software skills matter more than ever. #VibeCoding #SoftwareEngineering #TechSkills
simonw.substack.com/p/vibe-engin...
simonw.substack.com/p/vibe-engin...
We move ever higher and higher up the stack. Where's the end?
engineeringharmony.substack.com/p/the-map-an...
engineeringharmony.substack.com/p/the-map-an...
The map and the territory
“…In that Empire, the Art of Cartography attained such Perfection that the map of a single Province occupied the entirety of a City, and the map of the Empire itself an entire Province.
engineeringharmony.substack.com
October 9, 2025 at 8:32 AM
We move ever higher and higher up the stack. Where's the end?
engineeringharmony.substack.com/p/the-map-an...
engineeringharmony.substack.com/p/the-map-an...