In longitudinal studies, dropout leads to a monotone missing data pattern. We show in a new article that monotonicity sometimes enables and sometimes prevents the identification of  the full law, i.e., the joint distribution of actual variables and response indicators. openreview.net/pdf?id=kVthd...

In a new preprint, we study causal effect identification with multiple data sources. We show that certain clustering and pruning operations of the causal graph are identification invariant. This means that we may use the smaller graph to make conclusions on the larger graph.
arxiv.org/abs/2505.15215

Our paper on the value of information for a risk-averse decision maker was published. Koski, V., Karvanen, J. Risk aversion in the value of information analysis: application to lake management. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2025) doi.org/10.1007/s004...

ELLIS Institute Finland is hiring Principal Investigators in AI + machine learning. World-class resources for research incl. LUMI supercomputer, generous starting package & professorship affiliation with a university in the world’s happiest country! Apply by March 9: ellisinstitute.fi/PI-recruit

Reminder about these positions - DL tomorrow (8 Jan).

The SBEDE model is released!
It is a statistical model for debiasing systematic biases in expert predictions and ignoring experts who have not proven their competence
#BayesianStats
The article includes a real data portfolio optimization application with stock analysts' target prices
rdcu.be/d3n69

University of Jyväskylä has opened calls for a tenure-track professor and a senior lecturer in statistics:
ats.talentadore.com/apply/assist...
ats.talentadore.com/apply/senior...

In addition, applications are invited for the JYU Visiting Fellow Programme:
ats.talentadore.com/apply/jyu-vi...

Scholar Goggler summarized my research topics.
scholargoggler.com

Santtu Tikka and I wrote two preprints on identification in missing data problems. The results have interesting implications for multiple imputation.

Multiple imputation and full law identifiability, arxiv.org/abs/2410.18688

Monotone missing data: a blessing and a curse, arxiv.org/abs/2411.03848

Forestry is important for the economies of Finland and Sweden and provides interesting problems also for statisticians. In a recent work done in collaboration with Skogforsk, we optimized the inventory decisions in operational forestry. doi.org/10.1093/biom...

Simulating values from a known distribution is a basic task in statistics. But how to simulate from a counterfactual distribution? We consider this question in a recently published paper.

jair.org/index.php/ja...

The proposed algorithm is applied to fairness analysis in credit-scoring.