Jonathan Panikoff
@jpanikoff.bsky.social
Dir, Scowcroft ME Security Initiative @AtlanticCouncil; fmr @ODNI Dep NIO ME & Dir, ISG; ME, CFIUS, trade, US FP/natsec; Mets fan. Views my own; RT≠endorsement.
Sincere thanks to @foreignaffairs.com for publishing my latest, “How to Solve Gaza’s Hamas Problem” @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social
www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
How to Solve Gaza’s Hamas Problem
Disarming the group will require Arab and Muslim forces—and strong American leadership.
www.foreignaffairs.com
October 30, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Sincere thanks to @foreignaffairs.com for publishing my latest, “How to Solve Gaza’s Hamas Problem” @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social
www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
My latest for the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social, “Israel’s Gaza City operation will leave it more isolated. It’s time for a course correction.”
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
Israel’s Gaza City operation will leave it more isolated. It’s time for a course correction.
An operation to take Gaza City would mark a dramatic escalation in the conflict—and one with potentially irreversible costs to Israel’s alliances and reputation.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
August 21, 2025 at 4:46 PM
My latest for the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social, “Israel’s Gaza City operation will leave it more isolated. It’s time for a course correction.”
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
Thanks to @bloomberg.com for having me on today to discuss the Israeli decision to expand operations to Gaza City. m.youtube.com/watch?v=85CP... @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social
Israel to Seize Gaza City
YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts
m.youtube.com
August 9, 2025 at 1:55 AM
Thanks to @bloomberg.com for having me on today to discuss the Israeli decision to expand operations to Gaza City. m.youtube.com/watch?v=85CP... @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social
Great to join @msnbc.com yesterday afternoon for a chance to talk about the latest on Iran. www.msnbc.com/weekends-wit... @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social
Analyst says it will take weeks, if not months, to know real damage to Iran's nuclear program from U.S. airstrikes
Analysts say until IAEA inspectors are on the ground, it won't be possible to know the extent of damage done in Iran by U.S. airstrikes. This comes as The Washington Post reports the U.S. intercepted ...
www.msnbc.com
June 30, 2025 at 10:59 AM
Great to join @msnbc.com yesterday afternoon for a chance to talk about the latest on Iran. www.msnbc.com/weekends-wit... @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social
I appreciated the opportunity to join @npr.org Morning Edition and @michelmartinnpr.bsky.social to discuss the Israel-Iran ceasefire, what comes next, and long-term challenges. www.npr.org/2025/06/24/n... @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social
Will a ceasefire between Israel and Iran hold?
NPR's Michel Martin asks the Atlantic Council's Jonathan Panikoff whether a ceasefire agreement will stick between two countries that have spent decades antagonizing each other, Israel and Iran.
www.npr.org
June 24, 2025 at 3:41 PM
I appreciated the opportunity to join @npr.org Morning Edition and @michelmartinnpr.bsky.social to discuss the Israel-Iran ceasefire, what comes next, and long-term challenges. www.npr.org/2025/06/24/n... @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social
Thanks to the @bostonglobe.com for publishing my latest piece, “After US strikes on Iran, a narrow path to diplomacy” www.bostonglobe.com/2025/06/23/o...
After US strikes on Iran, a narrow path to diplomacy - The Boston Globe
Just as the United States should use its leverage with Israel to end its war with Iran, it should also use the credible military threat as leverage with Iran.
www.bostonglobe.com
June 23, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Thanks to the @bostonglobe.com for publishing my latest piece, “After US strikes on Iran, a narrow path to diplomacy” www.bostonglobe.com/2025/06/23/o...
My, and my @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social colleagues’, early reaction to Trump’s strike on Iran and what comes next….
An important note not in my piece: anyone who tells you they *know* what happens next or how this ends is someone you should promptly ignore.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
An important note not in my piece: anyone who tells you they *know* what happens next or how this ends is someone you should promptly ignore.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
Experts react: The United States just bombed Iran’s nuclear sites. Here’s what to expect next.
Early on Sunday morning in the Middle East, US forces targeted Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Atlantic Council experts survey the fallout for Iran and for the region.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
June 22, 2025 at 4:31 AM
My, and my @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social colleagues’, early reaction to Trump’s strike on Iran and what comes next….
An important note not in my piece: anyone who tells you they *know* what happens next or how this ends is someone you should promptly ignore.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
An important note not in my piece: anyone who tells you they *know* what happens next or how this ends is someone you should promptly ignore.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
My latest for the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social “If diplomacy and Israel’s efforts fall short, Trump should bomb Fordow to end the war”
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
If diplomacy and Israel’s efforts fall short, Trump should bomb Fordow to end the war
At the end of the current war, Iran will have a viable nuclear program, or it won’t. The future of the Middle East will be driven by the answer.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
June 19, 2025 at 6:15 PM
My latest for the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social “If diplomacy and Israel’s efforts fall short, Trump should bomb Fordow to end the war”
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
Thanks to @politico.com for asking me to join their expert commentary on what happens if the US bombs Iran. @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social www.politico.com/news/magazin...
8 Experts on What Happens If the United States Bombs Iran
As the U.S. weighs the option of heading back into a war in the Middle East, here are some ways the attack could play out.
www.politico.com
June 19, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Thanks to @politico.com for asking me to join their expert commentary on what happens if the US bombs Iran. @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Appreciated the opportunity to join @ctvnews-rss.bsky.social again to talk about the latest re Israel, Iran, and possible US involvement. www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkm1...
‘It’s unlikely’ Trump would order assassination of Iran’s supreme leader | Analyst
YouTube video by CTV News
www.youtube.com
June 18, 2025 at 10:50 PM
Appreciated the opportunity to join @ctvnews-rss.bsky.social again to talk about the latest re Israel, Iran, and possible US involvement. www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkm1...
“For many Iranian leaders an Iran without a nuclear weapon… is an existential threat to the survival of the regime itself. Many Iranian leaders believe that a nuclear weapon ultimately provides them stability and protection, just as it has for North Korea….”
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
After Israel’s strikes on Iran, these four questions could determine the Middle East’s future
The trajectory of the Middle East could be determined by how just a few critical questions are answered the coming days and weeks.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
June 13, 2025 at 3:51 PM
“For many Iranian leaders an Iran without a nuclear weapon… is an existential threat to the survival of the regime itself. Many Iranian leaders believe that a nuclear weapon ultimately provides them stability and protection, just as it has for North Korea….”
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
Initial thoughts on 🇮🇱’s strikes on 🇮🇷 from myself and friends and colleagues at the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
Experts react: Israel just attacked Iran's military and nuclear sites. What’s next?
Our experts shed light on Israel’s major attack against Iran targeting its nuclear facilities and its implications for the region.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
June 13, 2025 at 5:44 AM
Initial thoughts on 🇮🇱’s strikes on 🇮🇷 from myself and friends and colleagues at the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
Thanks to CNA for having me on to discuss Israel’s strikes on Iran tonight, what it means, and what comes next. @ACMideast @AtlanticCouncil www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fmv5...
What does Israel want to achieve by striking Iran?
YouTube video by CNA
www.youtube.com
June 13, 2025 at 3:03 AM
Thanks to CNA for having me on to discuss Israel’s strikes on Iran tonight, what it means, and what comes next. @ACMideast @AtlanticCouncil www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fmv5...
The potential of an 🇮🇱 strike is first about increasing pressure on 🇮🇷 (mirrored diplomatically by today's IAEA vote). But don't expect it until after POTUS decides diplomacy can't succeed. I.e. the threat needs to be real but 🇮🇱 is unlikely to strike w/o 🇺🇸 acquiescence. www.nytimes.com/article/isra...
Why Israel May Be Considering an Attack on Iran
www.nytimes.com
June 12, 2025 at 4:57 PM
The potential of an 🇮🇱 strike is first about increasing pressure on 🇮🇷 (mirrored diplomatically by today's IAEA vote). But don't expect it until after POTUS decides diplomacy can't succeed. I.e. the threat needs to be real but 🇮🇱 is unlikely to strike w/o 🇺🇸 acquiescence. www.nytimes.com/article/isra...
Bottom line from the 5th round of talks today: both the U.S. and Iran view there’s a potential for success and thus enough reason to continue talking. Ahead of the talks I spoke with @cnn.com about where we are in the negotiations.
video.snapstream.net/Play/7Xdo2jo...
video.snapstream.net/Play/7Xdo2jo...
CNN Newsroom - panikoff
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May 23, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Bottom line from the 5th round of talks today: both the U.S. and Iran view there’s a potential for success and thus enough reason to continue talking. Ahead of the talks I spoke with @cnn.com about where we are in the negotiations.
video.snapstream.net/Play/7Xdo2jo...
video.snapstream.net/Play/7Xdo2jo...
The latest from me: “Trump can’t afford to simply revive Obama‘s nuclear deal” @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
Trump can’t afford to simply revive Obama’s nuclear deal
Trump is right to try to seek a deal before okaying military action against Iran. But unlike in 2015, time is almost up.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
April 17, 2025 at 5:51 PM
The latest from me: “Trump can’t afford to simply revive Obama‘s nuclear deal” @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
Thanks to @washingtonpost.com for the chance to provide some thoughts on the resumption of the war in Gaza and what comes next. “The default is going to be an Israeli military occupation of Gaza. There’s nothing that says Hamas is ready for a new deal immediately, or that the Israelis are ready…/1
https://washingtonpost.com/world/2025/03/…
March 21, 2025 at 3:45 AM
Thanks to @washingtonpost.com for the chance to provide some thoughts on the resumption of the war in Gaza and what comes next. “The default is going to be an Israeli military occupation of Gaza. There’s nothing that says Hamas is ready for a new deal immediately, or that the Israelis are ready…/1
Whether you support diplomacy with Iran or not, it’s hard to imagine a worse idea than Russia being a mediator between the U.S. and Iran. Russia has been among Iran’s best allies. It’s like asking your bully to mediate between you and his close friend. 🤦♂️ t.co/1nAClDbCyd
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-04/iran-putin-to-help-trump-broker-nuclear-talks-with-tehran
t.co
March 5, 2025 at 3:04 AM
Whether you support diplomacy with Iran or not, it’s hard to imagine a worse idea than Russia being a mediator between the U.S. and Iran. Russia has been among Iran’s best allies. It’s like asking your bully to mediate between you and his close friend. 🤦♂️ t.co/1nAClDbCyd
Following POTUS & KING Abdullah mtg, I spoke w/ @nytimes.com. Part of my reaction, “But now you have a U.S. president who has threatened actions that would add kerosene to an already burning fire.” My full comments & the story here www.nytimes.com/2025/02/11/u...
Jordanian King Rebuffs Trump Proposal to Displace Palestinians in Gaza
His pushback came after President Trump insisted Tuesday that the United States has the authority to “take” Gaza.
www.nytimes.com
February 12, 2025 at 1:18 AM
Following POTUS & KING Abdullah mtg, I spoke w/ @nytimes.com. Part of my reaction, “But now you have a U.S. president who has threatened actions that would add kerosene to an already burning fire.” My full comments & the story here www.nytimes.com/2025/02/11/u...
This comes after Hamas announced it was suspending releases. That said, there’s reason for concern that “all hell” could endanger hostages lives and forcing 🇪🇬 & 🇯🇴 to take Gazans (which he reiterated) could lead to more violence & threats to 🇮🇱… from last week… www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
February 11, 2025 at 12:17 AM
This comes after Hamas announced it was suspending releases. That said, there’s reason for concern that “all hell” could endanger hostages lives and forcing 🇪🇬 & 🇯🇴 to take Gazans (which he reiterated) could lead to more violence & threats to 🇮🇱… from last week… www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
“Trump is serious about shaking up the Middle East, even if his Gaza plan isn’t”…. My latest on how to think about the plan President Trump launched for Gaza last night. www.atlanticcouncil.org?p=823728&pre... @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social
Trump is serious about shaking up the Middle East, even if his Gaza plan isn’t
It’s almost impossible to imagine Trump’s plan for Gaza coming to fruition. But it would be a mistake to think that he was anything but serious.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
February 5, 2025 at 10:45 PM
“Trump is serious about shaking up the Middle East, even if his Gaza plan isn’t”…. My latest on how to think about the plan President Trump launched for Gaza last night. www.atlanticcouncil.org?p=823728&pre... @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social
Admittedly I didn’t have “the US will take over the Gaza Strip on my bingo card last night. Thanks to the @financialtimes.com for asking me to provide a few thoughts on @potus’s comments.
t.co/sqyelLehMK
t.co/sqyelLehMK
https://www.ft.com/content/21579349-163f-4337-8e47-1ca8e1bb9741
t.co
February 5, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Admittedly I didn’t have “the US will take over the Gaza Strip on my bingo card last night. Thanks to the @financialtimes.com for asking me to provide a few thoughts on @potus’s comments.
t.co/sqyelLehMK
t.co/sqyelLehMK
Some thoughts from me on today’s meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Netanyahu, Trump to Hold Talks on Gaza Cease-Fire and Wider Middle East Strategy
The meeting could provide an early signal about the state of their sometimes wary relationship.
www.wsj.com
February 4, 2025 at 9:36 PM
Some thoughts from me on today’s meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu. www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Israel and Hamas are poised to finalize a ceasefire and hostage deal. Read about my and my @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social colleagues’ analysis on the implications, opportunities, and challenges ahead in our latest Experts React. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
Experts react: Everything you need to know about the Israel-Hamas cease-fire and hostage deal
Atlantic Council experts weigh in on what’s next for the conflict, Gaza’s reconstruction, Israel’s security, Saudi normalization, and more.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
January 16, 2025 at 2:22 AM
Israel and Hamas are poised to finalize a ceasefire and hostage deal. Read about my and my @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social colleagues’ analysis on the implications, opportunities, and challenges ahead in our latest Experts React. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...