John Arnold
@johnarnoldfndtn.bsky.social
Co-Chair, Arnold Ventures
For all the headlines, nothing changed with overall spending trends.
July 15, 2025 at 12:15 AM
For all the headlines, nothing changed with overall spending trends.
Good illustration of how much the Texas grid has changed in just 6 years.
yellow = solar; purple = batteries; dark green = wind; blue = gas; brown = coal; light green = nuke
via @gridstatus.io
yellow = solar; purple = batteries; dark green = wind; blue = gas; brown = coal; light green = nuke
via @gridstatus.io
July 12, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Good illustration of how much the Texas grid has changed in just 6 years.
yellow = solar; purple = batteries; dark green = wind; blue = gas; brown = coal; light green = nuke
via @gridstatus.io
yellow = solar; purple = batteries; dark green = wind; blue = gas; brown = coal; light green = nuke
via @gridstatus.io
Interesting dynamic in power sector is that cost of building solar gen keeps declining, but the value of an electron during sunny hours in sunny regions is also falling. The cost of gas-fired gen is rising quickly, but so is value of dispatchable power. Batteries will determine how this plays out.
June 8, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Interesting dynamic in power sector is that cost of building solar gen keeps declining, but the value of an electron during sunny hours in sunny regions is also falling. The cost of gas-fired gen is rising quickly, but so is value of dispatchable power. Batteries will determine how this plays out.
43 million Americans have left college with no credential. That’s the higher-ed crisis. Just as important as getting students to college is connecting them with institutions that have a track record of success, offer credentials of value, and provide adequate student support.
June 4, 2025 at 5:58 PM
43 million Americans have left college with no credential. That’s the higher-ed crisis. Just as important as getting students to college is connecting them with institutions that have a track record of success, offer credentials of value, and provide adequate student support.
Kudos to Texas Legislature for passing an energy abundance agenda while sidelining populist anti-electron bills that had momentum.
Passed: large load screening and management, nuclear fund, energy waste reduction
Failed: firming requirements, 50% gas gen mandate, wind/solar permitting hurdles
Passed: large load screening and management, nuclear fund, energy waste reduction
Failed: firming requirements, 50% gas gen mandate, wind/solar permitting hurdles
June 4, 2025 at 3:19 PM
Kudos to Texas Legislature for passing an energy abundance agenda while sidelining populist anti-electron bills that had momentum.
Passed: large load screening and management, nuclear fund, energy waste reduction
Failed: firming requirements, 50% gas gen mandate, wind/solar permitting hurdles
Passed: large load screening and management, nuclear fund, energy waste reduction
Failed: firming requirements, 50% gas gen mandate, wind/solar permitting hurdles
There’s an ongoing debate about whether able-bodied adults should be required to engage in productive work to qualify for the social safety net. Most Americans support some level of personal responsibility for at least some programs. Reasonable people disagree where that line should be drawn. 1/8
June 3, 2025 at 7:55 PM
There’s an ongoing debate about whether able-bodied adults should be required to engage in productive work to qualify for the social safety net. Most Americans support some level of personal responsibility for at least some programs. Reasonable people disagree where that line should be drawn. 1/8
The Shoe Bomber caused every shoe thereafter to be searched by TSA causing significant delays and friction. I fear Operation Spiderweb is going to cause the same with shipping containers.
June 3, 2025 at 2:20 PM
The Shoe Bomber caused every shoe thereafter to be searched by TSA causing significant delays and friction. I fear Operation Spiderweb is going to cause the same with shipping containers.
India’s fertility rate has fallen from 6 to 4 to 2 in successive generations. The world isn’t just undergoing its greatest tech transformation, it’s also living through its most dramatic demographic shift, two trends that are of course deeply related.
June 2, 2025 at 2:05 PM
India’s fertility rate has fallen from 6 to 4 to 2 in successive generations. The world isn’t just undergoing its greatest tech transformation, it’s also living through its most dramatic demographic shift, two trends that are of course deeply related.
Cities like Tampa used to be affordable.
May 28, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Cities like Tampa used to be affordable.
The recent price cuts for GLP-1s are a great case study in how the third-party payor system contributes to high drug costs.
Drugmakers typically launch new products at a “modestly high” price, desiring to avoid insurer resistance and encourage broad patient uptake.
1/4
Drugmakers typically launch new products at a “modestly high” price, desiring to avoid insurer resistance and encourage broad patient uptake.
1/4
May 27, 2025 at 7:58 PM
The recent price cuts for GLP-1s are a great case study in how the third-party payor system contributes to high drug costs.
Drugmakers typically launch new products at a “modestly high” price, desiring to avoid insurer resistance and encourage broad patient uptake.
1/4
Drugmakers typically launch new products at a “modestly high” price, desiring to avoid insurer resistance and encourage broad patient uptake.
1/4
I’ve seen a lot of dumb stuff in my investing career but the “arb” that exists in publicly tradeds buying BTC when ETFs already exist is as dumb as anything.
That it’s levered vs unlevered doesn’t justify the premium. The leverage is low. You can lever an ETF yourself. There's no barrier to entry.
That it’s levered vs unlevered doesn’t justify the premium. The leverage is low. You can lever an ETF yourself. There's no barrier to entry.
May 27, 2025 at 6:30 PM
I’ve seen a lot of dumb stuff in my investing career but the “arb” that exists in publicly tradeds buying BTC when ETFs already exist is as dumb as anything.
That it’s levered vs unlevered doesn’t justify the premium. The leverage is low. You can lever an ETF yourself. There's no barrier to entry.
That it’s levered vs unlevered doesn’t justify the premium. The leverage is low. You can lever an ETF yourself. There's no barrier to entry.
There's an A/B test on the future of the Democratic Party with Brandon Johnson in Chicago and Daniel Lurie in SF.
May 25, 2025 at 5:36 PM
There's an A/B test on the future of the Democratic Party with Brandon Johnson in Chicago and Daniel Lurie in SF.
Remember the PIGS? They got their deficits under control.
10 year bond yield:
Portugal: 3.10%
Italy: 3.61%
Greece: 3.34%
Spain: 3.21%
US: 4.51%
10 year bond yield:
Portugal: 3.10%
Italy: 3.61%
Greece: 3.34%
Spain: 3.21%
US: 4.51%
May 25, 2025 at 2:53 PM
Remember the PIGS? They got their deficits under control.
10 year bond yield:
Portugal: 3.10%
Italy: 3.61%
Greece: 3.34%
Spain: 3.21%
US: 4.51%
10 year bond yield:
Portugal: 3.10%
Italy: 3.61%
Greece: 3.34%
Spain: 3.21%
US: 4.51%
This is a positive step, but the nuclear industry’s biggest hurdles are technical and economic, not regulatory. Government policy must address those if we're to have a nuclear rebirth.
May 24, 2025 at 3:25 PM
This is a positive step, but the nuclear industry’s biggest hurdles are technical and economic, not regulatory. Government policy must address those if we're to have a nuclear rebirth.
"Instead, we have the worst of both worlds. Congress is afraid to go against the President’s wish list, and can be held hostage by a handful of House members representing special interests. The budget becomes the GOP version of an everything bagel." --Scott Sumner
May 24, 2025 at 1:02 PM
"Instead, we have the worst of both worlds. Congress is afraid to go against the President’s wish list, and can be held hostage by a handful of House members representing special interests. The budget becomes the GOP version of an everything bagel." --Scott Sumner
One way to think about the US funding pharma R&D for the whole world through the enormous premium we pay for pills is that it is foreign aid for high- and middle-income countries paid for by American patients.
May 12, 2025 at 5:17 PM
One way to think about the US funding pharma R&D for the whole world through the enormous premium we pay for pills is that it is foreign aid for high- and middle-income countries paid for by American patients.
How many times have I heard a GOP member of Congress say something along the lines of "the US doesn't have a revenue problem; it has a spending problem" or "the current level of spending is unsustainable" or "out-of-control deficit spending is the greatest threat to the country."
May 3, 2025 at 9:48 PM
How many times have I heard a GOP member of Congress say something along the lines of "the US doesn't have a revenue problem; it has a spending problem" or "the current level of spending is unsustainable" or "out-of-control deficit spending is the greatest threat to the country."
Imagining the counterfactual had DOGE done the job like a turnaround CEO would have: spend the first 100 days on a listening tour and rapid assessment and then come out with a comprehensive plan of reforms, cuts, and vision for the future.
May 2, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Imagining the counterfactual had DOGE done the job like a turnaround CEO would have: spend the first 100 days on a listening tour and rapid assessment and then come out with a comprehensive plan of reforms, cuts, and vision for the future.
Kudos to Rice University for using its resources to boost undergraduate enrollment by 30% this decade. Sadly, it's the only top 25 school currently pursuing a significant expansion in access.
April 23, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Kudos to Rice University for using its resources to boost undergraduate enrollment by 30% this decade. Sadly, it's the only top 25 school currently pursuing a significant expansion in access.
I have zero ties to the city but the rebound of SF seems an underreported story, especially given the amount of attention the decline got.
April 13, 2025 at 4:52 PM
I have zero ties to the city but the rebound of SF seems an underreported story, especially given the amount of attention the decline got.
This is the fuel mix in ERCOT (Texas) for the past week (top) vs same week 4 years ago (bottom). Solar generation is in yellow. Solar barely registered in 2021; today it accounts for roughly 50% of generation during the day in the shoulder months.
data via @gridstatus.io
data via @gridstatus.io
April 13, 2025 at 1:29 PM
This is the fuel mix in ERCOT (Texas) for the past week (top) vs same week 4 years ago (bottom). Solar generation is in yellow. Solar barely registered in 2021; today it accounts for roughly 50% of generation during the day in the shoulder months.
data via @gridstatus.io
data via @gridstatus.io
If the purpose of tariffs is to reshore industry, companies need very high confidence in the permanence of the policy.
If the purpose is to raise revenue, they must stay enacted.
If the purpose is to negotiate policy, there must be a specific ask.
If the purpose is to raise revenue, they must stay enacted.
If the purpose is to negotiate policy, there must be a specific ask.
March 7, 2025 at 2:50 PM
If the purpose of tariffs is to reshore industry, companies need very high confidence in the permanence of the policy.
If the purpose is to raise revenue, they must stay enacted.
If the purpose is to negotiate policy, there must be a specific ask.
If the purpose is to raise revenue, they must stay enacted.
If the purpose is to negotiate policy, there must be a specific ask.
Today the Senate passed a resolution against the methane emission fee. This is a mistake. Many large NG producers quietly support methane regs because they know the industry is stronger in the long term if viewed as responsible stewards of the environment.
1/4
1/4
February 27, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Today the Senate passed a resolution against the methane emission fee. This is a mistake. Many large NG producers quietly support methane regs because they know the industry is stronger in the long term if viewed as responsible stewards of the environment.
1/4
1/4
This is A+ philanthropy:
Find a field neglected by other funders (nursing ed) that has broad benefits (economic mobility & health outcomes), identify the constraint (shortage of faculty and space), do strong due diligence, fund it at scale, and give while living.
www.philanthropy.com/article/bill...
Find a field neglected by other funders (nursing ed) that has broad benefits (economic mobility & health outcomes), identify the constraint (shortage of faculty and space), do strong due diligence, fund it at scale, and give while living.
www.philanthropy.com/article/bill...
February 27, 2025 at 4:55 PM
This is A+ philanthropy:
Find a field neglected by other funders (nursing ed) that has broad benefits (economic mobility & health outcomes), identify the constraint (shortage of faculty and space), do strong due diligence, fund it at scale, and give while living.
www.philanthropy.com/article/bill...
Find a field neglected by other funders (nursing ed) that has broad benefits (economic mobility & health outcomes), identify the constraint (shortage of faculty and space), do strong due diligence, fund it at scale, and give while living.
www.philanthropy.com/article/bill...