Jason Nicholls
@jnmet.bsky.social
Lead International Forecaster/Senior Meteorologist/International forecasting manager @AccuWeather. Long range/global forecaster. NVU-Lyndon grad; proud dad
Tropical depression 10 is NNE of #Mauritius & can strength to a moderate tropical storm this weekend, then is expected to become a severe TS or tropical cyclone before making landfall in #Madagascar late Tuesday or Wednesday.
February 6, 2026 at 3:06 PM
Tropical depression 10 is NNE of #Mauritius & can strength to a moderate tropical storm this weekend, then is expected to become a severe TS or tropical cyclone before making landfall in #Madagascar late Tuesday or Wednesday.
A trough (WD) will spread rain & mountain snow from #Turkey, #Syria & #Lebanon to #Iraq, #Iran, #Kuwait & N #SaudiArabia over the next couple of days. This system can bring rain & mountain snow to #Afghanistan, N #Pakistan & NW #India early next week.
February 6, 2026 at 11:45 AM
A trough (WD) will spread rain & mountain snow from #Turkey, #Syria & #Lebanon to #Iraq, #Iran, #Kuwait & N #SaudiArabia over the next couple of days. This system can bring rain & mountain snow to #Afghanistan, N #Pakistan & NW #India early next week.
#Penha/#Basyang is now a tropical depression over #Visayas in the #Philippines. Areas of heavy rain will continue over the region into Saturday.
February 6, 2026 at 9:44 AM
#Penha/#Basyang is now a tropical depression over #Visayas in the #Philippines. Areas of heavy rain will continue over the region into Saturday.
TL 21U is off the coast from #Broome and likely becomes a TC off the #Pilbara coast this weekend. The storm can make landfall in northwest #WesternAustralia near #Onslow or #Exmouth late Sunday or early Monday, AWST.
February 6, 2026 at 8:38 AM
TL 21U is off the coast from #Broome and likely becomes a TC off the #Pilbara coast this weekend. The storm can make landfall in northwest #WesternAustralia near #Onslow or #Exmouth late Sunday or early Monday, AWST.
30-day average of the Southern Oscillation Index is up to +10.99, but that does not mean a strengthening #LaNina. The elevated SOI is due to an active monsoon & tropical activity around N #Australia, including the current TL 21U, which lowered pressure around #Darwin.
February 5, 2026 at 9:26 PM
30-day average of the Southern Oscillation Index is up to +10.99, but that does not mean a strengthening #LaNina. The elevated SOI is due to an active monsoon & tropical activity around N #Australia, including the current TL 21U, which lowered pressure around #Darwin.
Happy National Weatherperson's Day to my fellow meteorologists!
February 5, 2026 at 3:09 PM
Happy National Weatherperson's Day to my fellow meteorologists!
Negative Arctic Oscillation will continue to favor a storm track across the Iberian Peninsula to the Mediterranean Sea into next week. The next round of heavy rain will spread from S #Portugal & S #Spain Sat to #Corsica & #Sardinia Sun, then S #Italy & the #Balkans Monday.
February 5, 2026 at 2:29 PM
Zone of Disturbed Weather 10 will strengthen as it tracks SW over the next few days & can become a TC before possibly making landfall in #Madagascar around midweek. Outer bands of the storm will bring some rain & wind to #Mauritius & #Reunion Island this weekend.
February 5, 2026 at 1:04 PM
Zone of Disturbed Weather 10 will strengthen as it tracks SW over the next few days & can become a TC before possibly making landfall in #Madagascar around midweek. Outer bands of the storm will bring some rain & wind to #Mauritius & #Reunion Island this weekend.
A trough (WD) will produce rain & mountain snow from #Turkey, #Syria & #Lebanon to #Iraq, #Iran, #Kuwait & N #SaudiArabia Friday through Sunday. This system can bring rain & mountain snow to #Afghanistan, N #Pakistan & NW #India early next week.
February 5, 2026 at 11:57 AM
A trough (WD) will produce rain & mountain snow from #Turkey, #Syria & #Lebanon to #Iraq, #Iran, #Kuwait & N #SaudiArabia Friday through Sunday. This system can bring rain & mountain snow to #Afghanistan, N #Pakistan & NW #India early next week.
Tropical low 21U will move off the #Kimberley coast near #Broome late Thursday night or early Friday, AWST. The low can reach tropical cyclone intensity off the #Pilbara coast this weekend. Squally rains are likely along the Kimberley & Pilbara coasts as it tracks WSW.
February 5, 2026 at 10:53 AM
Tropical low 21U will move off the #Kimberley coast near #Broome late Thursday night or early Friday, AWST. The low can reach tropical cyclone intensity off the #Pilbara coast this weekend. Squally rains are likely along the Kimberley & Pilbara coasts as it tracks WSW.
Tropical Storm #Penha/#Basyang will make landfall in #Minadano, #Philippines Thursday evening, local time. Heavy rain & gusty winds across Mindanao & #Visayas into Saturday, then heavy rain in #Palawan this weekend.
February 5, 2026 at 8:25 AM
Tropical Storm #Penha/#Basyang will make landfall in #Minadano, #Philippines Thursday evening, local time. Heavy rain & gusty winds across Mindanao & #Visayas into Saturday, then heavy rain in #Palawan this weekend.
A trough (WD) over #Iran & the Caspian Sea will bring rain & mountain snow to #Afghanistan, northern #Pakistan & NW #India Wednesday night into Friday. Another trough will bring more rain & snow to these areas early next week, after impacting the #MiddleEast this weekend.
February 4, 2026 at 2:50 PM
A trough (WD) over #Iran & the Caspian Sea will bring rain & mountain snow to #Afghanistan, northern #Pakistan & NW #India Wednesday night into Friday. Another trough will bring more rain & snow to these areas early next week, after impacting the #MiddleEast this weekend.
Zone of disturbed weather NNE of #Mauritius will strengthen as it tracks SW over the next few days. This system can become a TC before impacting Mauritius, #Reunion Island & perhaps #Madagascar early next week.
February 4, 2026 at 1:31 PM
Zone of disturbed weather NNE of #Mauritius will strengthen as it tracks SW over the next few days. This system can become a TC before impacting Mauritius, #Reunion Island & perhaps #Madagascar early next week.
TL 21U in the far NE #Kimberley region will drift west & can move off the coast near #Broome Friday. The low can strengthen once over water off NW #Australia this weekend & early next week. Potential to become a cyclone off the #Pilbara coast.
February 4, 2026 at 10:52 AM
TL 21U in the far NE #Kimberley region will drift west & can move off the coast near #Broome Friday. The low can strengthen once over water off NW #Australia this weekend & early next week. Potential to become a cyclone off the #Pilbara coast.
TD #Basyang has formed in the Philippine Sea & can strengthen to a tropical storm before reaching #Mindanao in the southern #Philippines late Thursday or Thursday night, local time.
February 4, 2026 at 8:18 AM
TD #Basyang has formed in the Philippine Sea & can strengthen to a tropical storm before reaching #Mindanao in the southern #Philippines late Thursday or Thursday night, local time.
Today marks the anniversary of "The Day The Music Died" which Don McLean immortalized in the 1971 song American Pie.
February 3, 2026 at 9:44 PM
Today marks the anniversary of "The Day The Music Died" which Don McLean immortalized in the 1971 song American Pie.
A tropical low southeast of #Seychelles will likely become a tropical cyclone by the time it passes near #Mauritius & #Reunion Island early next week. Flooding rains & damaging winds are expected across the islands.
February 3, 2026 at 1:21 PM
A tropical low southeast of #Seychelles will likely become a tropical cyclone by the time it passes near #Mauritius & #Reunion Island early next week. Flooding rains & damaging winds are expected across the islands.
Tropical low 21U is moving toward the #Kimberley region of #WesternAustralia & is expected to move off the coast near #Broome on Friday. Once over water this low can strengthen to a cyclone off NW #Australia this weekend or early next week.
February 3, 2026 at 8:28 AM
Tropical low 21U is moving toward the #Kimberley region of #WesternAustralia & is expected to move off the coast near #Broome on Friday. Once over water this low can strengthen to a cyclone off NW #Australia this weekend or early next week.
Idiocracy feels more like a documentary than science fiction these days. Mike Judge nailed it.
February 2, 2026 at 10:18 PM
Idiocracy feels more like a documentary than science fiction these days. Mike Judge nailed it.