Jason Nicholls
@jnmet.bsky.social
Lead International Forecaster/Senior Meteorologist/International forecasting manager @AccuWeather. Long range/global forecaster. NVU-Lyndon grad; proud dad
Tropical low 02U in the Timor Sea will gradually strengthen & can become a cyclone later this week. Regardless, areas of heavy rain are likely across #Australia's #TopEnd much of this week.
November 16, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Tropical low 02U in the Timor Sea will gradually strengthen & can become a cyclone later this week. Regardless, areas of heavy rain are likely across #Australia's #TopEnd much of this week.
Monitoring a tropical cyclone forming in the Timor Sea next week with a high chance of heavy rain across #Australia's #TopEnd.
November 15, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Monitoring a tropical cyclone forming in the Timor Sea next week with a high chance of heavy rain across #Australia's #TopEnd.
More widespread & locally heavy rain expected in southern #AndhraPradesh, #TamilNadu, #Kerala, #Puducherry & #SriLanka early next week. Watching for development in southern Bay of Bengal late next week or early the following week. Risk of widespread heavy rain in S #India the week of 24 Nov.
November 14, 2025 at 12:31 PM
More widespread & locally heavy rain expected in southern #AndhraPradesh, #TamilNadu, #Kerala, #Puducherry & #SriLanka early next week. Watching for development in southern Bay of Bengal late next week or early the following week. Risk of widespread heavy rain in S #India the week of 24 Nov.
Low pressure forming near the Indonesian archipelago will strengthen as it drifts east across the Timor Sea over the next few days. The low can become the first tropical cyclone of the season before impacting the Top End of #Australia later next week.
November 14, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Low pressure forming near the Indonesian archipelago will strengthen as it drifts east across the Timor Sea over the next few days. The low can become the first tropical cyclone of the season before impacting the Top End of #Australia later next week.
A tropical low can form off the Indonesian archipelago & near the Timor Sea over the next few days then can become a cyclone off northern #Australia next week. Risk of heavy rain & gusty winds around the Top End next week.
November 13, 2025 at 1:55 PM
A tropical low can form off the Indonesian archipelago & near the Timor Sea over the next few days then can become a cyclone off northern #Australia next week. Risk of heavy rain & gusty winds around the Top End next week.
Rainfall will become more widespread in southern #AndhraPradesh, #TamilNadu, #Kerala, #Puducherry & #SriLanka this weekend & early next week. Watching for development in southern Bay of Bengal late next week or early the following week. Risk of heavy rain in S #India the week of 24 Nov.
November 13, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Rainfall will become more widespread in southern #AndhraPradesh, #TamilNadu, #Kerala, #Puducherry & #SriLanka this weekend & early next week. Watching for development in southern Bay of Bengal late next week or early the following week. Risk of heavy rain in S #India the week of 24 Nov.
Fung-wong is transitioning to an extra-tropical storm near the Ryukyu Islands and will dissipate well south of #Japan Thursday night, local time.
November 13, 2025 at 10:12 AM
Fung-wong is transitioning to an extra-tropical storm near the Ryukyu Islands and will dissipate well south of #Japan Thursday night, local time.
The recent mild weather will give way to notably colder pattern across northern and western #Europe next week. Remaining warm in southeast Europe.
November 13, 2025 at 8:21 AM
The recent mild weather will give way to notably colder pattern across northern and western #Europe next week. Remaining warm in southeast Europe.
Despite Fung-wong making landfall in far southern #Taiwan on Wednesday, the strongest gusts (outside of the mountains) were along the west coast. This was because winds were funneled through the Taiwan Strait. Less friction over water allowed wind to accelerate through the narrow passage.
November 12, 2025 at 9:25 PM
Despite Fung-wong making landfall in far southern #Taiwan on Wednesday, the strongest gusts (outside of the mountains) were along the west coast. This was because winds were funneled through the Taiwan Strait. Less friction over water allowed wind to accelerate through the narrow passage.
The 90 day average for the SOI is now above +7. Sustained 90-day SOI values above +7.0 are indicative of La Niña. The 30 day average strengthened to +13.43.
November 12, 2025 at 3:40 PM
The 90 day average for the SOI is now above +7. Sustained 90-day SOI values above +7.0 are indicative of La Niña. The 30 day average strengthened to +13.43.
Pattern change for #Europe with a much colder pattern across northern and western Europe next week. Remaining warmer than normal in southeast Europe.
November 12, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Pattern change for #Europe with a much colder pattern across northern and western Europe next week. Remaining warmer than normal in southeast Europe.
Watching for tropical development in the Timor Sea this weekend or early next week. Regardless, there can be enhanced rain in northern #Australia around the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and Top End coast early next week.
November 12, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Watching for tropical development in the Timor Sea this weekend or early next week. Regardless, there can be enhanced rain in northern #Australia around the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and Top End coast early next week.
Rainfall will become more widespread in southern #AndhraPradesh, #TamilNadu, #Kerala, #Puducherry & #SriLanka this weekend & early next week. Watching for development in southern Bay of Bengal late next week or early the following week.
November 12, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Rainfall will become more widespread in southern #AndhraPradesh, #TamilNadu, #Kerala, #Puducherry & #SriLanka this weekend & early next week. Watching for development in southern Bay of Bengal late next week or early the following week.
Shear is displacing convection north-northwest of the center of #Fung-wong with landfall likely in far southern #Taiwan Wednesday evening, local time. The storm will dissipate east of Taiwan Thursday.
November 12, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Shear is displacing convection north-northwest of the center of #Fung-wong with landfall likely in far southern #Taiwan Wednesday evening, local time. The storm will dissipate east of Taiwan Thursday.
Impressive rainfall in eastern #Taiwan well ahead of #Fung-wong due to upslope flow. The upslope flow has waned but can resume later Wednesday and Wednesday night, local time, as winds turn more easterly for a time.
November 11, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Impressive rainfall in eastern #Taiwan well ahead of #Fung-wong due to upslope flow. The upslope flow has waned but can resume later Wednesday and Wednesday night, local time, as winds turn more easterly for a time.
A strong cold front will bring the risk of heavy rain & severe thunderstorms to the Pampas of #Argentina & #Uruguay later Saturday into Sunday, then #Paraguay & southeast #Brazil Sunday through Monday. Risk of isolated tornadoes.
November 11, 2025 at 2:36 PM
A strong cold front will bring the risk of heavy rain & severe thunderstorms to the Pampas of #Argentina & #Uruguay later Saturday into Sunday, then #Paraguay & southeast #Brazil Sunday through Monday. Risk of isolated tornadoes.
Flow into #Fung-wong is being accelerated as it funnels through the #Taiwan Strait with wind gusts to 80 km/h (50 mph) reported in #Taipei despite the storm centered around 600 km (375 miles) south of the city. Also, stronger winds reported along the southeast coast of #China.
November 11, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Flow into #Fung-wong is being accelerated as it funnels through the #Taiwan Strait with wind gusts to 80 km/h (50 mph) reported in #Taipei despite the storm centered around 600 km (375 miles) south of the city. Also, stronger winds reported along the southeast coast of #China.
An uptick in rainfall is expected in southern #AndhraPradesh, #TamilNadu, #Kerala, #Puducherry & #SriLanka this weekend into next week. Low pressure can form in the southern Bay of Bengal late next week.
November 11, 2025 at 11:38 AM
An uptick in rainfall is expected in southern #AndhraPradesh, #TamilNadu, #Kerala, #Puducherry & #SriLanka this weekend into next week. Low pressure can form in the southern Bay of Bengal late next week.
Tropical Storm #Fung-wong has started its northeast turn and is expected to make landfall between Kaosiung and Fangshan in southwest #Taiwan Wednesday night, local time.
November 11, 2025 at 8:27 AM
Tropical Storm #Fung-wong has started its northeast turn and is expected to make landfall between Kaosiung and Fangshan in southwest #Taiwan Wednesday night, local time.
A ridge building near the Northern Mariana Islands is turning #Fung-wong/#Uwan northward with a northeastward turn expected Tuesday night, local time. Fung-wong is expected to make another landfall in western #Taiwan Wednesday night, local time.
November 10, 2025 at 2:27 PM
A ridge building near the Northern Mariana Islands is turning #Fung-wong/#Uwan northward with a northeastward turn expected Tuesday night, local time. Fung-wong is expected to make another landfall in western #Taiwan Wednesday night, local time.
Rainfall will remain light & spotty in southern #AndhraPradesh, #TamilNadu, #Puducherry, #Kerala & #SriLanka through the weekend. There can be an uptick in rainfall in these areas early next week. Risk for a low to form in the Bay of Bengal late next week.
November 10, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Rainfall will remain light & spotty in southern #AndhraPradesh, #TamilNadu, #Puducherry, #Kerala & #SriLanka through the weekend. There can be an uptick in rainfall in these areas early next week. Risk for a low to form in the Bay of Bengal late next week.
The outer bands of #Fung-wong is already bring some rain to #Taiwan with upsloping enhancing the rain in the east. Rain, some heavy, will continue across Taiwan into Thursday, local time.
November 10, 2025 at 11:13 AM
The outer bands of #Fung-wong is already bring some rain to #Taiwan with upsloping enhancing the rain in the east. Rain, some heavy, will continue across Taiwan into Thursday, local time.