Jonathan LaBerge
@jlabergebca.bsky.social
Strategist at BCA Research in Montreal. @JLaBergeBCA on X.
At this point, a long US dollar view is seen as near-heresy by investors, especially those outside of the US. I am a dollar bear on a multi-year time horizon, but over the next six months to a year I think the dollar rallies if the US economy continues to slow.
June 27, 2025 at 7:15 PM
At this point, a long US dollar view is seen as near-heresy by investors, especially those outside of the US. I am a dollar bear on a multi-year time horizon, but over the next six months to a year I think the dollar rallies if the US economy continues to slow.
Want to know why the trade war has appeared to be worse for the US than the rest of the world? Look no further. Global ex-US growth has been propped up by trade frontrunning, which will not last forever.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Global Goods Trade Gains as Tariff Fears Speed Imports, WTO Says
Global merchandise trade accelerated in the World Trade Organization’s latest assessment, with a surge in imports tied to tariff stockpiling outweighing a slowdown in export orders.
www.bloomberg.com
June 26, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Want to know why the trade war has appeared to be worse for the US than the rest of the world? Look no further. Global ex-US growth has been propped up by trade frontrunning, which will not last forever.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Israel’s strike on Iran, and especially the latter’s response, threatens to cause a sharp further rise in the price of oil. My colleague Matt Gertken has done a great job covering this risk, and I leave the probabilities of a major further shock to him.
June 13, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Israel’s strike on Iran, and especially the latter’s response, threatens to cause a sharp further rise in the price of oil. My colleague Matt Gertken has done a great job covering this risk, and I leave the probabilities of a major further shock to him.
Financial markets are responding positively to the May employment data. Nonfarm payrolls grew more than the ADP data implied, suggesting incrementally lower odds of recession.
June 6, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Financial markets are responding positively to the May employment data. Nonfarm payrolls grew more than the ADP data implied, suggesting incrementally lower odds of recession.
This January chart from Ben Carlson / Ritholtz has been circulating around again recently on social media. Some investors interpret the chart to mean that the US economy has become less cyclical and that we are in a "post-recession" world.
June 4, 2025 at 4:05 PM
This January chart from Ben Carlson / Ritholtz has been circulating around again recently on social media. Some investors interpret the chart to mean that the US economy has become less cyclical and that we are in a "post-recession" world.
The low-interest rate environment of the 2010s is gone forever unless another GFC or COVID-style economic shock occurs. The Fed hasn’t fully realized this though, because their view of the neutral rate is informed by academic estimates, especially the Laubach-Williams model.
June 2, 2025 at 3:05 PM
The low-interest rate environment of the 2010s is gone forever unless another GFC or COVID-style economic shock occurs. The Fed hasn’t fully realized this though, because their view of the neutral rate is informed by academic estimates, especially the Laubach-Williams model.
The surge in some measures of long-term inflation expectations, particularly from the US University of Michigan survey, has raised investor concerns about whether inflation will be persistently elevated in the future.
May 30, 2025 at 7:01 PM
The surge in some measures of long-term inflation expectations, particularly from the US University of Michigan survey, has raised investor concerns about whether inflation will be persistently elevated in the future.
These are charts from an older report, but the point stands. President Trump is a populist leader, and populism hurts economic growth. That is true even after controlling for the odds that weak growth leads to populism. Source: Schularick, Trebesch, and Funke (2021).
May 23, 2025 at 7:16 PM
These are charts from an older report, but the point stands. President Trump is a populist leader, and populism hurts economic growth. That is true even after controlling for the odds that weak growth leads to populism. Source: Schularick, Trebesch, and Funke (2021).
Recent news on the upcoming fiscal bill in the US has refocused investor attention on US debt sustainability. The US 10-year yield broke above 4.5% on Wednesday May 21st (touching 4.6% intra-day), reflecting investor concerns about the implications of the bill for the US government deficit.
May 21, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Recent news on the upcoming fiscal bill in the US has refocused investor attention on US debt sustainability. The US 10-year yield broke above 4.5% on Wednesday May 21st (touching 4.6% intra-day), reflecting investor concerns about the implications of the bill for the US government deficit.
Hot macro take: Stephen Miran may have accidentally saved the global economy from a trade-induced recession.
May 14, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Hot macro take: Stephen Miran may have accidentally saved the global economy from a trade-induced recession.
If April 2nd was “Liberation Day” for the US, then May 12th was “Capitulation Day”. In my view, the 90-day tariff rollback with China cannot be interpreted in any other way.
May 12, 2025 at 3:15 PM
If April 2nd was “Liberation Day” for the US, then May 12th was “Capitulation Day”. In my view, the 90-day tariff rollback with China cannot be interpreted in any other way.
Investors should pay attention when there are big gaps in the implied odds of important events, and the accompanying chart suggests that there is a huge difference in the probability of a recession reflected in betting markets versus the stock market.
May 5, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Investors should pay attention when there are big gaps in the implied odds of important events, and the accompanying chart suggests that there is a huge difference in the probability of a recession reflected in betting markets versus the stock market.
It is admittedly somewhat surprising that US job growth wasn’t slower in April due to trade uncertainty. Still, it’s important to remember that tariff frontrunning has boosted activity, both in the US and around the world, as firms scramble to get ahead of the tariffs.
May 2, 2025 at 3:29 PM
It is admittedly somewhat surprising that US job growth wasn’t slower in April due to trade uncertainty. Still, it’s important to remember that tariff frontrunning has boosted activity, both in the US and around the world, as firms scramble to get ahead of the tariffs.
I don’t think that the “Sell America” trade will persist, but it is true that we have seen concerning behavior from the 10-year Treasury yield this month.
April 25, 2025 at 1:59 PM
I don’t think that the “Sell America” trade will persist, but it is true that we have seen concerning behavior from the 10-year Treasury yield this month.
The odds of a Liberal majority in Canada are falling, but that outcome remains probable according to 338Canada. The Conservatives are not benefitting, meaning that the odds are shifting from a Liberal majority to Liberal plurality (most seats but not enough to form a government on their own).
April 22, 2025 at 4:32 PM
The odds of a Liberal majority in Canada are falling, but that outcome remains probable according to 338Canada. The Conservatives are not benefitting, meaning that the odds are shifting from a Liberal majority to Liberal plurality (most seats but not enough to form a government on their own).
President Trump’s post on Truth this morning revived questions about whether he would attempt to remove Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. Trump ended his post with the statement that “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”. 1/15
April 17, 2025 at 5:35 PM
President Trump’s post on Truth this morning revived questions about whether he would attempt to remove Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. Trump ended his post with the statement that “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”. 1/15
Revisiting Donald Trump’s First Presidency, With The Benefit Of Hindsight
Back in late Feb 2024, BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service highlighted that trade policy would likely be a major problem for investors were Trump to win the election. 1/17
Back in late Feb 2024, BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service highlighted that trade policy would likely be a major problem for investors were Trump to win the election. 1/17
April 9, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Revisiting Donald Trump’s First Presidency, With The Benefit Of Hindsight
Back in late Feb 2024, BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service highlighted that trade policy would likely be a major problem for investors were Trump to win the election. 1/17
Back in late Feb 2024, BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service highlighted that trade policy would likely be a major problem for investors were Trump to win the election. 1/17
If you read BCA Research's Annual Outlook report in November, you would have known that the odds of this outcome were always well above what betting odds implied.
April 3, 2025 at 12:00 AM
If you read BCA Research's Annual Outlook report in November, you would have known that the odds of this outcome were always well above what betting odds implied.
Versus other majors, USD’s uptrend has stalled. But it remains intact on a broad trade-weighted basis. This points to the tech selloff and the European renaissance narrative as temporary drivers of the pullback. If the US slips into recession, USD will rise further.
April 1, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Versus other majors, USD’s uptrend has stalled. But it remains intact on a broad trade-weighted basis. This points to the tech selloff and the European renaissance narrative as temporary drivers of the pullback. If the US slips into recession, USD will rise further.
I do not believe in "mystic" approaches when it comes to financial markets, but it is somewhat eerie how the current SPX selloff is following the 2018 profile (during the first trade war). We should find out soon if we are really replaying that episode today.
March 25, 2025 at 1:34 PM
I do not believe in "mystic" approaches when it comes to financial markets, but it is somewhat eerie how the current SPX selloff is following the 2018 profile (during the first trade war). We should find out soon if we are really replaying that episode today.
Over the coming 6-12 months, I would be long precious versus industrial metals. Central bank purchases have changed the game for gold, and industrial metals are unlikely to fare well if global growth slows in response to tariffs and a US consumer pullback 1/2
March 21, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Over the coming 6-12 months, I would be long precious versus industrial metals. Central bank purchases have changed the game for gold, and industrial metals are unlikely to fare well if global growth slows in response to tariffs and a US consumer pullback 1/2
With the S&P 500 now in correction territory, is the index oversold enough to expect a bounce? My price-only technical indicator says not yet, although that answer might change in a day or two if market action continues to be this negative. @bcaresearch.bsky.social
March 13, 2025 at 8:23 PM
With the S&P 500 now in correction territory, is the index oversold enough to expect a bounce? My price-only technical indicator says not yet, although that answer might change in a day or two if market action continues to be this negative. @bcaresearch.bsky.social
Reposted by Jonathan LaBerge
One of my companies informed me they cancelled a $2m conference in Florida. Why ?
They didn’t feel they could pass on the incremental cost of tariffs. So they are cutting expenses.
That’s a city that lost a ton of tourism revenue.
The cost of tariffs isn’t just the cost of the tariff
They didn’t feel they could pass on the incremental cost of tariffs. So they are cutting expenses.
That’s a city that lost a ton of tourism revenue.
The cost of tariffs isn’t just the cost of the tariff
March 10, 2025 at 9:38 PM
One of my companies informed me they cancelled a $2m conference in Florida. Why ?
They didn’t feel they could pass on the incremental cost of tariffs. So they are cutting expenses.
That’s a city that lost a ton of tourism revenue.
The cost of tariffs isn’t just the cost of the tariff
They didn’t feel they could pass on the incremental cost of tariffs. So they are cutting expenses.
That’s a city that lost a ton of tourism revenue.
The cost of tariffs isn’t just the cost of the tariff
In our 2025 Annual Outlook, @bcaresearch.bsky.social noted that we expected major trade action from the Trump administration this year, which would be negative for both the global and US economies. It remains early days, but the selloff is tracking the 2018 experience. S&P 500 @ 5000 by May?
March 10, 2025 at 8:07 PM
In our 2025 Annual Outlook, @bcaresearch.bsky.social noted that we expected major trade action from the Trump administration this year, which would be negative for both the global and US economies. It remains early days, but the selloff is tracking the 2018 experience. S&P 500 @ 5000 by May?