Jim Sannes
@jimsannes.bsky.social
Trading Analyst at FanDuel. Former writer & podcaster for numberFire & FanDuel Research. Six-time FSWA award winner. Northwestern graduate living in Lawrence, KS.
Minnesota sports are Having a Normal One today
January 30, 2026 at 6:23 PM
Minnesota sports are Having a Normal One today
Gonna watch The Day After Tomorrow to prep for this weekend
January 23, 2026 at 7:35 PM
Gonna watch The Day After Tomorrow to prep for this weekend
I have been running my NFL spread model since 2022.
In that time, the closest spread it has had for a game is 0.0191 points.
It has Rams-Seahawks Pt. III at 0.0188.
Means I'm betting the Rams, but gol dang, this game bangs on paper.
In that time, the closest spread it has had for a game is 0.0191 points.
It has Rams-Seahawks Pt. III at 0.0188.
Means I'm betting the Rams, but gol dang, this game bangs on paper.
January 19, 2026 at 4:13 PM
I have been running my NFL spread model since 2022.
In that time, the closest spread it has had for a game is 0.0191 points.
It has Rams-Seahawks Pt. III at 0.0188.
Means I'm betting the Rams, but gol dang, this game bangs on paper.
In that time, the closest spread it has had for a game is 0.0191 points.
It has Rams-Seahawks Pt. III at 0.0188.
Means I'm betting the Rams, but gol dang, this game bangs on paper.
This makes up for two straight terrible games.
January 19, 2026 at 2:37 AM
This makes up for two straight terrible games.
3 of the 6 1st-round QBs from 2024 have made the Conference Championship.
Caleb Williams could make it 4 of 6 tonight.
Caleb Williams could make it 4 of 6 tonight.
January 18, 2026 at 11:18 PM
3 of the 6 1st-round QBs from 2024 have made the Conference Championship.
Caleb Williams could make it 4 of 6 tonight.
Caleb Williams could make it 4 of 6 tonight.
As an unbiased viewer*, that was 100% a catch by Kayshon Boutte.
*minus my +390 anytime TD and 70-plus yards at +509 tickets
*minus my +390 anytime TD and 70-plus yards at +509 tickets
January 18, 2026 at 10:46 PM
As an unbiased viewer*, that was 100% a catch by Kayshon Boutte.
*minus my +390 anytime TD and 70-plus yards at +509 tickets
*minus my +390 anytime TD and 70-plus yards at +509 tickets
You know it's a disaster when you're shocked a team is down *only* 11 points at halftime.
January 18, 2026 at 9:44 PM
You know it's a disaster when you're shocked a team is down *only* 11 points at halftime.
Always jarring to:
- Never clear your cookies
- Open a PGA leaderboard for the first event
- See the hideous list of names you bet for the last event
- Never clear your cookies
- Open a PGA leaderboard for the first event
- See the hideous list of names you bet for the last event
January 15, 2026 at 10:26 PM
Always jarring to:
- Never clear your cookies
- Open a PGA leaderboard for the first event
- See the hideous list of names you bet for the last event
- Never clear your cookies
- Open a PGA leaderboard for the first event
- See the hideous list of names you bet for the last event
The Commanders finished as numberFire's 17th-ranked offense despite getting just 7 games from Jayden Daniels with gobs of WR injuries.
Pretty tough to see Kliff Kingsbury get squeezed after that.
Pretty tough to see Kliff Kingsbury get squeezed after that.
January 6, 2026 at 6:35 PM
The Commanders finished as numberFire's 17th-ranked offense despite getting just 7 games from Jayden Daniels with gobs of WR injuries.
Pretty tough to see Kliff Kingsbury get squeezed after that.
Pretty tough to see Kliff Kingsbury get squeezed after that.
No Monday Night Football means I can finally finish important projects.
January 6, 2026 at 3:40 AM
No Monday Night Football means I can finally finish important projects.
100% still going to run the QB model! Will likely just be talking about it here rather than full articles.
Congrats! Selfishly, does that mean your rookie QB model is sunsetting also?
January 5, 2026 at 7:29 PM
100% still going to run the QB model! Will likely just be talking about it here rather than full articles.
Some job news:
Friday was my last day with FanDuel Research.
I had a blast there/numberFire the past 10 years, and I'm grateful for all the awesome people I got to work with. They made it so fun to come to work.
Thanks to everyone for reading/listening over the years!
Friday was my last day with FanDuel Research.
I had a blast there/numberFire the past 10 years, and I'm grateful for all the awesome people I got to work with. They made it so fun to come to work.
Thanks to everyone for reading/listening over the years!
January 5, 2026 at 4:42 PM
Some job news:
Friday was my last day with FanDuel Research.
I had a blast there/numberFire the past 10 years, and I'm grateful for all the awesome people I got to work with. They made it so fun to come to work.
Thanks to everyone for reading/listening over the years!
Friday was my last day with FanDuel Research.
I had a blast there/numberFire the past 10 years, and I'm grateful for all the awesome people I got to work with. They made it so fun to come to work.
Thanks to everyone for reading/listening over the years!
Get Kevin Stefanski to East Rutherford ASAP.
January 5, 2026 at 3:25 PM
Get Kevin Stefanski to East Rutherford ASAP.
What. A. Freaking. Game.
January 5, 2026 at 4:35 AM
What. A. Freaking. Game.
The 49ers' moneyline has moved enough to become a value for me.
My favorite bets for 49ers-Seahawks at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/3-b...
My favorite bets for 49ers-Seahawks at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/3-b...
3 Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Seahawks at 49ers, Week 18
Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers are slight home underdogs to the Seahawks in Week 18. Can they pull off the win and lock down the 1 seed in the NFC?
fanduel.com
January 2, 2026 at 8:21 PM
The 49ers' moneyline has moved enough to become a value for me.
My favorite bets for 49ers-Seahawks at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/3-b...
My favorite bets for 49ers-Seahawks at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/3-b...
Like a couple of Bucs pass-catchers against the Panthers tomorrow.
What could go wrong?
My favorite props for Bucs-Panthers at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/3-b...
What could go wrong?
My favorite props for Bucs-Panthers at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/3-b...
3 Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Panthers at Buccaneers, Week 18
Jalen McMillan went off for the Bucs last week. Can he do it again in a must-win Week 18 game against the Panthers?
fanduel.com
January 2, 2026 at 7:05 PM
Like a couple of Bucs pass-catchers against the Panthers tomorrow.
What could go wrong?
My favorite props for Bucs-Panthers at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/3-b...
What could go wrong?
My favorite props for Bucs-Panthers at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/3-b...
We are riding with The King again this week 👑
My favorite Week 18 NFL player props at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/4-b...
My favorite Week 18 NFL player props at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/4-b...
4 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 18
Derrick Henry got a massive workload in a must-win game last week. Will the Ravens lean on him again as they face the Steelers in Week 18?
fanduel.com
January 2, 2026 at 4:53 PM
We are riding with The King again this week 👑
My favorite Week 18 NFL player props at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/4-b...
My favorite Week 18 NFL player props at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/4-b...
Seeing some good value in the touchdown prop market for Week 18.
My favorite options at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/3-b...
My favorite options at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/3-b...
3 Best NFL Touchdown Prop Bets for Week 18
Courtland Sutton's role has been on the rise with the Broncos. Can he find the end zone in Week 18 as they face the Chargers?
fanduel.com
January 2, 2026 at 3:41 PM
Seeing some good value in the touchdown prop market for Week 18.
My favorite options at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/3-b...
My favorite options at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/3-b...
In 6 games against common opponents:
Drake Maye: 10.2% CPOE, 0.26 EPA per drop back
Matthew Stafford: 4.3% CPOE, 0.08 EPA per drop back
Drake Maye: 10.2% CPOE, 0.26 EPA per drop back
Matthew Stafford: 4.3% CPOE, 0.08 EPA per drop back
Really reaching to that bag of obscure nextgen stats from rando football analytics sites all to convince people that the 3-13 Browns and 2-12 Raiders are good, actually.
Meanwhile this was on their schedule…twice.
Meanwhile this was on their schedule…twice.
December 30, 2025 at 9:44 PM
In 6 games against common opponents:
Drake Maye: 10.2% CPOE, 0.26 EPA per drop back
Matthew Stafford: 4.3% CPOE, 0.08 EPA per drop back
Drake Maye: 10.2% CPOE, 0.26 EPA per drop back
Matthew Stafford: 4.3% CPOE, 0.08 EPA per drop back
Against top-10 defenses by numberFire's metrics:
Drake Maye: 9.2% CPOE, 0.09 EPA/DB (3 games)
Matthew Stafford: -2.1% CPOE, 0.08 EPA/DB (5 games)
So, Stafford faced more of these stout defenses. But Maye outperformed Stafford when he got the chance.
Drake Maye: 9.2% CPOE, 0.09 EPA/DB (3 games)
Matthew Stafford: -2.1% CPOE, 0.08 EPA/DB (5 games)
So, Stafford faced more of these stout defenses. But Maye outperformed Stafford when he got the chance.
lol I mean considering EPA/DB, Malik Willis and Jameis Winston also have higher numbers.
You can’t possibly believe that if Maye played the Rams schedule and Stafford played the Pats schedule, that Stafford wouldn’t be leading in every stat, even the rando next gen ones.
You can’t possibly believe that if Maye played the Rams schedule and Stafford played the Pats schedule, that Stafford wouldn’t be leading in every stat, even the rando next gen ones.
December 30, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Against top-10 defenses by numberFire's metrics:
Drake Maye: 9.2% CPOE, 0.09 EPA/DB (3 games)
Matthew Stafford: -2.1% CPOE, 0.08 EPA/DB (5 games)
So, Stafford faced more of these stout defenses. But Maye outperformed Stafford when he got the chance.
Drake Maye: 9.2% CPOE, 0.09 EPA/DB (3 games)
Matthew Stafford: -2.1% CPOE, 0.08 EPA/DB (5 games)
So, Stafford faced more of these stout defenses. But Maye outperformed Stafford when he got the chance.
As things stand, here are my favorite NFL Week 18 spread and total bets at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/4-b...
4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 18
Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers host the Ravens in a massive Week 18 tilt. Where can we find betting value there and elsewhere at FanDuel Sportsbook?
fanduel.com
December 30, 2025 at 8:56 PM
As things stand, here are my favorite NFL Week 18 spread and total bets at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/4-b...
TE leaders in EPA per target (min. 50 targets):
1. George Kittle 0.74
2. Colston Loveland 0.63
They're the only guys above 0.50 (per Next Gen Stats).
Loveland's a dude.
1. George Kittle 0.74
2. Colston Loveland 0.63
They're the only guys above 0.50 (per Next Gen Stats).
Loveland's a dude.
December 30, 2025 at 5:02 PM
TE leaders in EPA per target (min. 50 targets):
1. George Kittle 0.74
2. Colston Loveland 0.63
They're the only guys above 0.50 (per Next Gen Stats).
Loveland's a dude.
1. George Kittle 0.74
2. Colston Loveland 0.63
They're the only guys above 0.50 (per Next Gen Stats).
Loveland's a dude.
Drake Maye is 31 points ahead of Matthew Stafford in Drop Back EPA, per Next Gen Stats.
That doesn't count his rushing value.
I honestly dgaf about the schedule. He's the MVP.
That doesn't count his rushing value.
I honestly dgaf about the schedule. He's the MVP.
December 30, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Drake Maye is 31 points ahead of Matthew Stafford in Drop Back EPA, per Next Gen Stats.
That doesn't count his rushing value.
I honestly dgaf about the schedule. He's the MVP.
That doesn't count his rushing value.
I honestly dgaf about the schedule. He's the MVP.
nitial Week 18 spread and total predictions are up!
Caveat that personnel decisions will change things a bunch throughout the week ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/nfl...
Caveat that personnel decisions will change things a bunch throughout the week ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/nfl...
NFL Week 18 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game
What should we expect out of the spreads and totals for every Week 18 NFL game?
fanduel.com
December 30, 2025 at 3:51 PM
nitial Week 18 spread and total predictions are up!
Caveat that personnel decisions will change things a bunch throughout the week ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/nfl...
Caveat that personnel decisions will change things a bunch throughout the week ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/nfl...
EPA per drop back relative to expectation (based on opponent):
Jaxson Dart: 0.00
Tyler Shough: -0.08
Total QBR (which includes rushing):
Dart: 58.1
Shough: 48.2
Total EPA (again, including rushing):
Dart: 25.9
Shough: -9.3
Jaxson Dart: 0.00
Tyler Shough: -0.08
Total QBR (which includes rushing):
Dart: 58.1
Shough: 48.2
Total EPA (again, including rushing):
Dart: 25.9
Shough: -9.3
December 29, 2025 at 5:16 PM
EPA per drop back relative to expectation (based on opponent):
Jaxson Dart: 0.00
Tyler Shough: -0.08
Total QBR (which includes rushing):
Dart: 58.1
Shough: 48.2
Total EPA (again, including rushing):
Dart: 25.9
Shough: -9.3
Jaxson Dart: 0.00
Tyler Shough: -0.08
Total QBR (which includes rushing):
Dart: 58.1
Shough: 48.2
Total EPA (again, including rushing):
Dart: 25.9
Shough: -9.3