Jeff Frankel
@jefffrankel.bsky.social
Prof at Harvard Kennedy School. Associate at NBER.
Past: Prof at UCB Econ & Member of President's CEA.
Past: Prof at UCB Econ & Member of President's CEA.
Tariffs did little damage to US GDP & inflation in 2025. Explanatn? 1. Govt shutdown derailed late-year stats 2. Trump backed off the most extreme tariffs 3. Importers stockpiled ahead 4. Firms absorbed higher prices, rather than passing on fully to consumers. Probably in 2026.
prosyn.org/2Rk6QVY
prosyn.org/2Rk6QVY
Why Haven’t Trump’s Tariffs Crashed the US Economy?
Jeffrey Frankel explains why a disaster deferred in 2025 may not be a disaster denied in 2026.
prosyn.org
December 29, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Tariffs did little damage to US GDP & inflation in 2025. Explanatn? 1. Govt shutdown derailed late-year stats 2. Trump backed off the most extreme tariffs 3. Importers stockpiled ahead 4. Firms absorbed higher prices, rather than passing on fully to consumers. Probably in 2026.
prosyn.org/2Rk6QVY
prosyn.org/2Rk6QVY
This year, the earliest sunset, at least in Boston, comes Monday, December 8, at 4:13:12 pm. (In London the sun will keep setting earlier, until December 12, at 3:51 pm.) From here on, darkness will start to arrive later.
December 7, 2025 at 5:43 PM
This year, the earliest sunset, at least in Boston, comes Monday, December 8, at 4:13:12 pm. (In London the sun will keep setting earlier, until December 12, at 3:51 pm.) From here on, darkness will start to arrive later.
How will US debt unsustainability end? 6 possibilities: growth; Near-0 interest rates; Default; Inflation; Financial repression; Fiscal austerity. Probably austerity, but not for some years yet. By then, adjustment will be severe www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/11/30/how-will-unsustainable-us-debt-end/
How will unsustainable US debt end? | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog
www.jeffrey-frankel.com
November 30, 2025 at 1:27 PM
How will US debt unsustainability end? 6 possibilities: growth; Near-0 interest rates; Default; Inflation; Financial repression; Fiscal austerity. Probably austerity, but not for some years yet. By then, adjustment will be severe www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/11/30/how-will-unsustainable-us-debt-end/
Recessions don’t start under Dems, only Repubs. The odds 5 recessions fit by chance: only 3%.
www.splinter.com/the-economy-does-better-under-democrats-but-most-people-dont-know-that
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2024/03/28/the-historical-puzzle-of-us-economic-performance-under-democrats-vs-republicans/
www.splinter.com/the-economy-does-better-under-democrats-but-most-people-dont-know-that
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2024/03/28/the-historical-puzzle-of-us-economic-performance-under-democrats-vs-republicans/
The Economy Does Better Under Democrats, but Most People Don’t Know That
Splinter is your home for news and opinions that challenge power in our political and economic system that's becoming more unhinged each and every day.
www.splinter.com
November 12, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Recessions don’t start under Dems, only Repubs. The odds 5 recessions fit by chance: only 3%.
www.splinter.com/the-economy-does-better-under-democrats-but-most-people-dont-know-that
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2024/03/28/the-historical-puzzle-of-us-economic-performance-under-democrats-vs-republicans/
www.splinter.com/the-economy-does-better-under-democrats-but-most-people-dont-know-that
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2024/03/28/the-historical-puzzle-of-us-economic-performance-under-democrats-vs-republicans/
The riddle why voters vote against their own economic interest is especially puzzling under Trump. The answer may be the same as why they decide to go to the polls at all: econ self-interest is not the #1 motivation.
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/09/29/do-voters-pursue-their-economic-self-interest/
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/09/29/do-voters-pursue-their-economic-self-interest/
September 30, 2025 at 12:20 AM
The riddle why voters vote against their own economic interest is especially puzzling under Trump. The answer may be the same as why they decide to go to the polls at all: econ self-interest is not the #1 motivation.
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/09/29/do-voters-pursue-their-economic-self-interest/
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/09/29/do-voters-pursue-their-economic-self-interest/
Why do MAGAs vote against self-interest? E.g.,Trump health benefit cuts. Perhaps they are not trying to vote in their self-interest, but rather vote to express their culture.
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-do-trump-supporters-vote-against-their-economic-interests-by-jeffrey-frankel-2025-09
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-do-trump-supporters-vote-against-their-economic-interests-by-jeffrey-frankel-2025-09
September 26, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Why do MAGAs vote against self-interest? E.g.,Trump health benefit cuts. Perhaps they are not trying to vote in their self-interest, but rather vote to express their culture.
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-do-trump-supporters-vote-against-their-economic-interests-by-jeffrey-frankel-2025-09
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-do-trump-supporters-vote-against-their-economic-interests-by-jeffrey-frankel-2025-09
“Is This the End of the US Dollar’s Exorbitant Privilege?”. Link to panel on $ at AEI 9/12/2025 with Obstfeld, Sheets, Lachman + me.
www.aei.org/events/is-this-the-end-of-the-us-dollars-exorbitant-privilege/
www.aei.org/events/is-this-the-end-of-the-us-dollars-exorbitant-privilege/
www.aei.org
September 10, 2025 at 11:53 AM
“Is This the End of the US Dollar’s Exorbitant Privilege?”. Link to panel on $ at AEI 9/12/2025 with Obstfeld, Sheets, Lachman + me.
www.aei.org/events/is-this-the-end-of-the-us-dollars-exorbitant-privilege/
www.aei.org/events/is-this-the-end-of-the-us-dollars-exorbitant-privilege/
MAGA acts as if trying to bring back 1990, health-wise: they oppose vax, intl cooperatn, scientific research, ACA, public health...Child mortality was 34 x higher in 1900, life expectancy 40 x lower, & incomes < 1/7 of today’s.
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/09/01/turning-medical-science-back-to-1900/
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/09/01/turning-medical-science-back-to-1900/
September 1, 2025 at 2:17 PM
MAGA acts as if trying to bring back 1990, health-wise: they oppose vax, intl cooperatn, scientific research, ACA, public health...Child mortality was 34 x higher in 1900, life expectancy 40 x lower, & incomes < 1/7 of today’s.
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/09/01/turning-medical-science-back-to-1900/
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/09/01/turning-medical-science-back-to-1900/
Trump would take US back to McKinley's presidency. But life expectancy in 1900 was only 47 (vs 77 today). McKinley himself, when shot, died without anti-biotics. Medical science has come far since then, eg., new vaccines saved 154 m lives. MAGA is trying to reverse that progress. prosyn.org/SCOpb3N
Make America Sick Again
Jeffrey Frankel marvels at the MAGA movement's apparent commitment to reversing progress on public health.
prosyn.org
August 28, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Trump would take US back to McKinley's presidency. But life expectancy in 1900 was only 47 (vs 77 today). McKinley himself, when shot, died without anti-biotics. Medical science has come far since then, eg., new vaccines saved 154 m lives. MAGA is trying to reverse that progress. prosyn.org/SCOpb3N
Ken Rogoff, Michael Strain, and others weigh in on the unprecedented pressure that Trump is applying to Jay Powell and the Fed. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-bank-of-trump-doc-2025-07
Trump’s Taylor Rule | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog
www.jeffrey-frankel.com
August 1, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Ken Rogoff, Michael Strain, and others weigh in on the unprecedented pressure that Trump is applying to Jay Powell and the Fed. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-bank-of-trump-doc-2025-07
"Taylor Rule" means central bank reaction function. What is Trump's Taylor Rule? A study of 145 times that he criticized the Fed, 2013-2025, shows: when president, he says interest rates are too high. He only says too low when out of office.
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/07/30/trumps-taylor-rule/
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/07/30/trumps-taylor-rule/
Trump’s Taylor Rule | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog
www.jeffrey-frankel.com
August 1, 2025 at 3:34 PM
"Taylor Rule" means central bank reaction function. What is Trump's Taylor Rule? A study of 145 times that he criticized the Fed, 2013-2025, shows: when president, he says interest rates are too high. He only says too low when out of office.
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/07/30/trumps-taylor-rule/
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/07/30/trumps-taylor-rule/
Am I the only one who worries that if we
keep saying "TACO", it will goad Trump into following through on some of his absurdly high tariff threats?
keep saying "TACO", it will goad Trump into following through on some of his absurdly high tariff threats?
July 15, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Am I the only one who worries that if we
keep saying "TACO", it will goad Trump into following through on some of his absurdly high tariff threats?
keep saying "TACO", it will goad Trump into following through on some of his absurdly high tariff threats?
International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2025 www.nber.org/conferences/....
Thanks to CB of Croatia for hosting NBER ISOM in Split and to Kristin Forbes & Ricardo Reis for organizing the program.
Thanks to CB of Croatia for hosting NBER ISOM in Split and to Kristin Forbes & Ricardo Reis for organizing the program.
International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2025
www.nber.org
June 28, 2025 at 8:04 AM
International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2025 www.nber.org/conferences/....
Thanks to CB of Croatia for hosting NBER ISOM in Split and to Kristin Forbes & Ricardo Reis for organizing the program.
Thanks to CB of Croatia for hosting NBER ISOM in Split and to Kristin Forbes & Ricardo Reis for organizing the program.
Stan Fischer has passed away. He was in a class of his own, as scholar, public servant, and human being. Written when he was appointed vice chair of the Fed: www.theguardian.com/business/2013/dec/27/stanley-fischer-great-choice-federal-reserve
Why Stanley Fischer is a great choice for the Federal Reserve
Jeffrey Frankel: With his crisis-management experience and confidence in monetary policy, Stanley Fischer would be the perfect choice as Janet Yellen's deputy
www.theguardian.com
June 1, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Stan Fischer has passed away. He was in a class of his own, as scholar, public servant, and human being. Written when he was appointed vice chair of the Fed: www.theguardian.com/business/2013/dec/27/stanley-fischer-great-choice-federal-reserve
The Newark airport mishap illustrates again the need for US air traffic control system reform, preferably by privatizing it.
JF: www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2023/12/17/fix-air-traffic-control.
Dorothy Robyn: www.brookings.edu/articles/president-trumps-air-traffic-control-plan-wont-fix-the-real-problem
JF: www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2023/12/17/fix-air-traffic-control.
Dorothy Robyn: www.brookings.edu/articles/president-trumps-air-traffic-control-plan-wont-fix-the-real-problem
President Trump’s air traffic control plan won’t fix the real problem
The air traffic control system should be taken out of the FAA and allowed to operate like a public utility, urges Dorothy Robyn.
www.brookings.edu
May 9, 2025 at 1:37 PM
The Newark airport mishap illustrates again the need for US air traffic control system reform, preferably by privatizing it.
JF: www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2023/12/17/fix-air-traffic-control.
Dorothy Robyn: www.brookings.edu/articles/president-trumps-air-traffic-control-plan-wont-fix-the-real-problem
JF: www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2023/12/17/fix-air-traffic-control.
Dorothy Robyn: www.brookings.edu/articles/president-trumps-air-traffic-control-plan-wont-fix-the-real-problem
Federico Sturzenegger, who is Minister for Deregulation in the cabinet of Javier Milei, spoke in the Forum at HKS, 5/1: “Beyond the Chain Saw: Deregulation in Argentina.” I think Argentina needed radical reform; but the chain saw in the US is pure destruction. iop.harvard.edu/events/beyon...
Beyond the Chain Saw: Deregulation in Argentina
View the livestreamMinister Federico Sturzenegger joins us for a discussion focused on the work of President Milei's administration in Argentina, with a particular focus on reduction of spending and r...
iop.harvard.edu
May 4, 2025 at 2:07 AM
Federico Sturzenegger, who is Minister for Deregulation in the cabinet of Javier Milei, spoke in the Forum at HKS, 5/1: “Beyond the Chain Saw: Deregulation in Argentina.” I think Argentina needed radical reform; but the chain saw in the US is pure destruction. iop.harvard.edu/events/beyon...
BEA advance GDP estimate: negative 0.3% SAAR. But we can't say this means a 2025 recession is likely. The GDP change was driven by a big rise in imports. That can result from a rise in income. Morover, in this case, it could be due to front-loading of imports ahead of tariffs. Gold in particular.
April 30, 2025 at 2:28 PM
BEA advance GDP estimate: negative 0.3% SAAR. But we can't say this means a 2025 recession is likely. The GDP change was driven by a big rise in imports. That can result from a rise in income. Morover, in this case, it could be due to front-loading of imports ahead of tariffs. Gold in particular.
BEA will announce the advance estimate of Q1 GDP growth Friday April 30. Can one predict a recession? The most popular leading indicators are not necessarily the best places to look. Prediction markets now say 57% chance of recession.
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/04/24/how-to-forecast-a-recession/
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/04/24/how-to-forecast-a-recession/
April 28, 2025 at 6:22 PM
BEA will announce the advance estimate of Q1 GDP growth Friday April 30. Can one predict a recession? The most popular leading indicators are not necessarily the best places to look. Prediction markets now say 57% chance of recession.
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/04/24/how-to-forecast-a-recession/
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/04/24/how-to-forecast-a-recession/
This is a rare time, when one can venture that recession odds > 50%. It hasn’t yet appeared in data, but leading indicators point that way. (Confidence, PMI, ...) More importantly, so do Trump policies. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/odds-of-a-us-recession-are-high-by-jeffrey-frankel-2025-04
How to Forecast a Recession | by Jeffrey Frankel - Project Syndicate
Jeffrey Frankel , relying on several indicators, puts the odds of a prolonged US downturn as high as 60% for the coming year.
www.project-syndicate.org
April 22, 2025 at 12:32 AM
This is a rare time, when one can venture that recession odds > 50%. It hasn’t yet appeared in data, but leading indicators point that way. (Confidence, PMI, ...) More importantly, so do Trump policies. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/odds-of-a-us-recession-are-high-by-jeffrey-frankel-2025-04
The "Mar-A-Lago Accord" is a proposal, discussed by CEA Chair Miran & Treas. Secy. Bessent, to force foreign govts to agree to depreciate $ + restructure the US Treasury securities they hold. It's supposed to keep the $ as #1 reserve currency! www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/03/23/no-mar-a-lago-accord/
No Mar-a-Lago Accord | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog
www.jeffrey-frankel.com
March 23, 2025 at 11:43 AM
The "Mar-A-Lago Accord" is a proposal, discussed by CEA Chair Miran & Treas. Secy. Bessent, to force foreign govts to agree to depreciate $ + restructure the US Treasury securities they hold. It's supposed to keep the $ as #1 reserve currency! www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/03/23/no-mar-a-lago-accord/
Most forget last 80 years of relative peace & prosperity were unique in human history. A rules-based internatl order, under US leadership, made it possible. Now Trump is throwing it all away. Video of an AEI panel on Trump implicatns for world economy. www.aei.org/events/trump-and-the-world-economy/
www.aei.org
March 21, 2025 at 7:56 PM
Most forget last 80 years of relative peace & prosperity were unique in human history. A rules-based internatl order, under US leadership, made it possible. Now Trump is throwing it all away. Video of an AEI panel on Trump implicatns for world economy. www.aei.org/events/trump-and-the-world-economy/
Trump & his officials told us the economy would boom from day 1, but now say there will be some disruption in the short run. It's as if unremitting chaos in federal personnel policy & trade wars could be predicted to have negative effects on the economy. news.harvard.edu/gazette/stor...
Where next for the U.S. economy? — Harvard Gazette
Harvard Kennedy School analyst Jeffrey Frankel includes trade war fallout among five recession threats on the horizon.
news.harvard.edu
March 21, 2025 at 7:28 PM
Trump & his officials told us the economy would boom from day 1, but now say there will be some disruption in the short run. It's as if unremitting chaos in federal personnel policy & trade wars could be predicted to have negative effects on the economy. news.harvard.edu/gazette/stor...
On 3/3, as Trump reiterated tariffs on Canada+Mex would go into effect at midnight, I wrote he would postpone at the last minute, as he had done in the past: www.koreaherald.com/article/10434345
But now, was I right or wrong?
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/03/06/trumps-far-out-negotiating-positions/
But now, was I right or wrong?
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/03/06/trumps-far-out-negotiating-positions/
[Jeffrey Frankel] Trump’s imaginary victories
The torrent of far-out policy moves that Donald Trump has announced during the first month of his second presidency has left pundits struggling to find method to the madness. Some say it is all a nego...
www.koreaherald.com
March 7, 2025 at 9:23 PM
On 3/3, as Trump reiterated tariffs on Canada+Mex would go into effect at midnight, I wrote he would postpone at the last minute, as he had done in the past: www.koreaherald.com/article/10434345
But now, was I right or wrong?
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/03/06/trumps-far-out-negotiating-positions/
But now, was I right or wrong?
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/03/06/trumps-far-out-negotiating-positions/
With Krugman in Lisbon in 1976. USAID paid for our MIT team to advise Portugal's central bank, despite our youth.
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/its-up-to-...
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/its-up-to-...
March 3, 2025 at 1:19 PM
With Krugman in Lisbon in 1976. USAID paid for our MIT team to advise Portugal's central bank, despite our youth.
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/its-up-to-...
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/its-up-to-...
Musk says that with all the money he saves by spending cuts, he will be able to distribute the proceeds to American taxpayers by a rebate. Absurd!!
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/02/22/doge-dividends-are-daft/
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/21/donald-trump-tax-cuts-elon-musk-doge-us-debt
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/02/22/doge-dividends-are-daft/
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/21/donald-trump-tax-cuts-elon-musk-doge-us-debt
DOGE dividends are daft | Jeffrey Frankel's Blog
www.jeffrey-frankel.com
February 22, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Musk says that with all the money he saves by spending cuts, he will be able to distribute the proceeds to American taxpayers by a rebate. Absurd!!
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/02/22/doge-dividends-are-daft/
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/21/donald-trump-tax-cuts-elon-musk-doge-us-debt
www.jeffrey-frankel.com/2025/02/22/doge-dividends-are-daft/
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/21/donald-trump-tax-cuts-elon-musk-doge-us-debt