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Join us live on Wednesday, the day before the Bank of England's crunch November meeting, for a conversation between James Smith and Chris Turner on Britain's economic outlook, the Autumn Budget, and prospects for UK assets.
Sign up here: think.ing.com/articles/web...
Sign up here: think.ing.com/articles/web...
November 3, 2025 at 10:09 AM
Join us live on Wednesday, the day before the Bank of England's crunch November meeting, for a conversation between James Smith and Chris Turner on Britain's economic outlook, the Autumn Budget, and prospects for UK assets.
Sign up here: think.ing.com/articles/web...
Sign up here: think.ing.com/articles/web...
After a couple of months of stability, we look for the dollar bear trend to resume into year-end.
EUR/USD should be trading up at 1.20 by that stage after three Fed rate cuts.
More in our FX Talking report out today: think.ing.com/reports/fx-t...
EUR/USD should be trading up at 1.20 by that stage after three Fed rate cuts.
More in our FX Talking report out today: think.ing.com/reports/fx-t...
FX Talking: Fed-powered rally has legs
We still prefer a benign decline in the dollar and a supported environment for risk assets and activity currencies
think.ing.com
September 15, 2025 at 1:12 PM
After a couple of months of stability, we look for the dollar bear trend to resume into year-end.
EUR/USD should be trading up at 1.20 by that stage after three Fed rate cuts.
More in our FX Talking report out today: think.ing.com/reports/fx-t...
EUR/USD should be trading up at 1.20 by that stage after three Fed rate cuts.
More in our FX Talking report out today: think.ing.com/reports/fx-t...
This month's Economic Update covers trade developments, France's political drama, the Lisa Cook affair, & our forecasts for the global economy.
Trade uncertainty is back, the Ukraine war drags on, and Europe is once again grappling with a political crisis.
More 👉 think.ing.com/bundles/sept...
Trade uncertainty is back, the Ukraine war drags on, and Europe is once again grappling with a political crisis.
More 👉 think.ing.com/bundles/sept...
September 11, 2025 at 10:41 AM
This month's Economic Update covers trade developments, France's political drama, the Lisa Cook affair, & our forecasts for the global economy.
Trade uncertainty is back, the Ukraine war drags on, and Europe is once again grappling with a political crisis.
More 👉 think.ing.com/bundles/sept...
Trade uncertainty is back, the Ukraine war drags on, and Europe is once again grappling with a political crisis.
More 👉 think.ing.com/bundles/sept...
We think the discussion at next week’s ECB meeting looks set to be more controversial than markets are currently pricing in.
Here's our preview: think.ing.com/articles/ecb...
Here's our preview: think.ing.com/articles/ecb...
Why the ECB is unlikely to leave its ‘good place’ just yet
We expect the ECB to stay on hold at its September meeting, though a final rate cut later this year should not be ruled out just yet
think.ing.com
September 4, 2025 at 7:51 AM
We think the discussion at next week’s ECB meeting looks set to be more controversial than markets are currently pricing in.
Here's our preview: think.ing.com/articles/ecb...
Here's our preview: think.ing.com/articles/ecb...
100 days since ECB President Christine Lagarde’s call for a 'global euro' moment, our team looks at whether progress has been made in boosting the euro’s global role, and whether investors are buying into the vision.
think.ing.com/reports/100-...
think.ing.com/reports/100-...
100 days in, is the euro gaining ground on the global stage?
We look for early signs of the euro’s progress since Christine Lagarde's landmark speech 100 days ago
think.ing.com
September 3, 2025 at 7:01 AM
100 days since ECB President Christine Lagarde’s call for a 'global euro' moment, our team looks at whether progress has been made in boosting the euro’s global role, and whether investors are buying into the vision.
think.ing.com/reports/100-...
think.ing.com/reports/100-...
Unlike the markets, we still reckon there's a decent chance the Bank of England will cut rates again in November.
But a few data points, released over the next couple of months, will be key to whether the Bank keeps easing later this year.
think.ing.com/articles/ban...
But a few data points, released over the next couple of months, will be key to whether the Bank keeps easing later this year.
think.ing.com/articles/ban...
The Bank of England’s dilemma: will the data justify a November rate cut?
The key data to watch between now and the Bank of England's November meeting
think.ing.com
September 1, 2025 at 8:08 AM
Unlike the markets, we still reckon there's a decent chance the Bank of England will cut rates again in November.
But a few data points, released over the next couple of months, will be key to whether the Bank keeps easing later this year.
think.ing.com/articles/ban...
But a few data points, released over the next couple of months, will be key to whether the Bank keeps easing later this year.
think.ing.com/articles/ban...
100 days since ECB President Lagarde’s call for a “global euro” moment, has Europe made progress – and are investors convinced? Join our webinar next Wednesday to find out.
📌 Sign up here: think.ing.com/articles/web...
📌 Sign up here: think.ing.com/articles/web...
Webinar: The ‘global euro’ 100-day report card
The euro's potential as a global currency is gaining traction. Our webinar will cover the progress made since Christine Lagarde’s landmark speech
think.ing.com
August 29, 2025 at 7:19 AM
100 days since ECB President Lagarde’s call for a “global euro” moment, has Europe made progress – and are investors convinced? Join our webinar next Wednesday to find out.
📌 Sign up here: think.ing.com/articles/web...
📌 Sign up here: think.ing.com/articles/web...
Not a fan of Oasis or puns? Look away now.
ING's James Smith looks back (in anger) at this week's economic highlights, & finds there's definitely maybe a problem in UK data quality, with retail sales pulled over dodgy numbers.
Here’s what’s coming next week: think.ing.com/articles/thi...
ING's James Smith looks back (in anger) at this week's economic highlights, & finds there's definitely maybe a problem in UK data quality, with retail sales pulled over dodgy numbers.
Here’s what’s coming next week: think.ing.com/articles/thi...
THINK Ahead: The data? She’s hardly econometric…
James Smith's supersonic look at the week ahead
think.ing.com
August 22, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Not a fan of Oasis or puns? Look away now.
ING's James Smith looks back (in anger) at this week's economic highlights, & finds there's definitely maybe a problem in UK data quality, with retail sales pulled over dodgy numbers.
Here’s what’s coming next week: think.ing.com/articles/thi...
ING's James Smith looks back (in anger) at this week's economic highlights, & finds there's definitely maybe a problem in UK data quality, with retail sales pulled over dodgy numbers.
Here’s what’s coming next week: think.ing.com/articles/thi...
President Trump has said the Fed is too late to cut interest rates, but it's not too late to sign up for our webinar today in which we discuss this after the key US inflation release.
Sign up here: think.ing.com/articles/web...
Sign up here: think.ing.com/articles/web...
Webinar: Too late to cut? The Federal Reserve’s inflation dilemma
Join us on Tuesday 12 August to unpack the latest inflation data and what it could mean for the Fed
think.ing.com
August 12, 2025 at 8:23 AM
President Trump has said the Fed is too late to cut interest rates, but it's not too late to sign up for our webinar today in which we discuss this after the key US inflation release.
Sign up here: think.ing.com/articles/web...
Sign up here: think.ing.com/articles/web...
Germany's economy shrinks.
"A painful reminder that optimism alone does not automatically bring back strong growth", says ING's Carsten Brzeski.
think.ing.com/snaps/german...
"A painful reminder that optimism alone does not automatically bring back strong growth", says ING's Carsten Brzeski.
think.ing.com/snaps/german...
German economy falls back into recessionary territory
German economy contracted in second quarter of 2025
think.ing.com
July 30, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Germany's economy shrinks.
"A painful reminder that optimism alone does not automatically bring back strong growth", says ING's Carsten Brzeski.
think.ing.com/snaps/german...
"A painful reminder that optimism alone does not automatically bring back strong growth", says ING's Carsten Brzeski.
think.ing.com/snaps/german...
Our all-important cheat sheet is out ahead of the ECB's rate-setting meeting on Thursday.
We expect a hold, but there are risks of a modest dovish tilt given tariff uncertainty and the euro’s recent strength.
Here's what our team thinks:
think.ing.com/articles/jul...
We expect a hold, but there are risks of a modest dovish tilt given tariff uncertainty and the euro’s recent strength.
Here's what our team thinks:
think.ing.com/articles/jul...
July 22, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Our all-important cheat sheet is out ahead of the ECB's rate-setting meeting on Thursday.
We expect a hold, but there are risks of a modest dovish tilt given tariff uncertainty and the euro’s recent strength.
Here's what our team thinks:
think.ing.com/articles/jul...
We expect a hold, but there are risks of a modest dovish tilt given tariff uncertainty and the euro’s recent strength.
Here's what our team thinks:
think.ing.com/articles/jul...
The stronger euro and latest tariff threats have added to the ECB's disinflationary concerns.
In our view, it is not enough to justify a rate cut next week, but rather very likely at the September meeting.
think.ing.com/articles/ecb...
In our view, it is not enough to justify a rate cut next week, but rather very likely at the September meeting.
think.ing.com/articles/ecb...
ECB’s ‘good place’ threatened by tariffs and a stronger euro
We preview the ECB's July meeting and expect rates to remain unchanged
think.ing.com
July 17, 2025 at 7:56 AM
The stronger euro and latest tariff threats have added to the ECB's disinflationary concerns.
In our view, it is not enough to justify a rate cut next week, but rather very likely at the September meeting.
think.ing.com/articles/ecb...
In our view, it is not enough to justify a rate cut next week, but rather very likely at the September meeting.
think.ing.com/articles/ecb...
The bottom line is that the UK jobs market is undoubtedly cooling – and, it is cooler than in other major economies.
However things aren’t snowballing, which is what we tend to see during recessions.
think.ing.com/snaps/less-a...
However things aren’t snowballing, which is what we tend to see during recessions.
think.ing.com/snaps/less-a...
Less alarming UK jobs data eases pressure on the Bank of England
UK payroll data was revised up significantly
think.ing.com
July 17, 2025 at 7:20 AM
The bottom line is that the UK jobs market is undoubtedly cooling – and, it is cooler than in other major economies.
However things aren’t snowballing, which is what we tend to see during recessions.
think.ing.com/snaps/less-a...
However things aren’t snowballing, which is what we tend to see during recessions.
think.ing.com/snaps/less-a...
In our recent FX Talking, we explain why we are expecting a temporary correction in EUR/USD over the coming months as tariff-driven US price pressures start to emerge.
Take a peek 👀 think.ing.com/bundles/fx-t...
Take a peek 👀 think.ing.com/bundles/fx-t...
July 14, 2025 at 1:36 PM
In our recent FX Talking, we explain why we are expecting a temporary correction in EUR/USD over the coming months as tariff-driven US price pressures start to emerge.
Take a peek 👀 think.ing.com/bundles/fx-t...
Take a peek 👀 think.ing.com/bundles/fx-t...
June was one of the hottest months ever in Western Europe, and don't expect things on the economic front to cool down anytime soon. ING's Carsten Brzeski looks at what to expect for the rest of the summer
think.ing.com/articles/no-...
think.ing.com/articles/no-...
No holiday respite from this economic heat
The economic storms will continue to rage this summer
think.ing.com
July 10, 2025 at 11:39 AM
June was one of the hottest months ever in Western Europe, and don't expect things on the economic front to cool down anytime soon. ING's Carsten Brzeski looks at what to expect for the rest of the summer
think.ing.com/articles/no-...
think.ing.com/articles/no-...
Trump’s 50% tariff is unlikely to boost US copper production. Why?
The US produces only 5% of the world's copper & has seen a 20% decline in production over the last decade.
Plus: previous tariffs on steel and aluminium did not lead to increased domestic production.
think.ing.com/articles/tru...
The US produces only 5% of the world's copper & has seen a 20% decline in production over the last decade.
Plus: previous tariffs on steel and aluminium did not lead to increased domestic production.
think.ing.com/articles/tru...
Trump’s 50% tariff unlikely to boost US copper production
The US produces around 5% of global copper mining output
think.ing.com
July 9, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Trump’s 50% tariff is unlikely to boost US copper production. Why?
The US produces only 5% of the world's copper & has seen a 20% decline in production over the last decade.
Plus: previous tariffs on steel and aluminium did not lead to increased domestic production.
think.ing.com/articles/tru...
The US produces only 5% of the world's copper & has seen a 20% decline in production over the last decade.
Plus: previous tariffs on steel and aluminium did not lead to increased domestic production.
think.ing.com/articles/tru...
Asia has been hit with fresh tariff rates. Of the 14 countries that received tariff letters, nine were in Asia.
The new announcements are silent on Singapore, India, and the Philippines, which might benefit from tariff concessions if negotiations progress favourably.
think.ing.com/articles/new...
The new announcements are silent on Singapore, India, and the Philippines, which might benefit from tariff concessions if negotiations progress favourably.
think.ing.com/articles/new...
July 8, 2025 at 12:16 PM
Asia has been hit with fresh tariff rates. Of the 14 countries that received tariff letters, nine were in Asia.
The new announcements are silent on Singapore, India, and the Philippines, which might benefit from tariff concessions if negotiations progress favourably.
think.ing.com/articles/new...
The new announcements are silent on Singapore, India, and the Philippines, which might benefit from tariff concessions if negotiations progress favourably.
think.ing.com/articles/new...
🌎 On 9 July, reciprocal tariffs (of 11-50%) will resume unless formal trade deals like US/UK or US/China are finalised.
What lies ahead for trade deals, tariff rates, and the US/China dispute? Here's our take:
think.ing.com/articles/us-...
What lies ahead for trade deals, tariff rates, and the US/China dispute? Here's our take:
think.ing.com/articles/us-...
Everything you need to know as we near the end of the US 90-day tariff pause
Reciprocal tariffs (of 11-50%) will resume on July 9 unless formal trade deals, such as US-UK or US-China agreements, are finalised
think.ing.com
July 2, 2025 at 11:58 AM
🌎 On 9 July, reciprocal tariffs (of 11-50%) will resume unless formal trade deals like US/UK or US/China are finalised.
What lies ahead for trade deals, tariff rates, and the US/China dispute? Here's our take:
think.ing.com/articles/us-...
What lies ahead for trade deals, tariff rates, and the US/China dispute? Here's our take:
think.ing.com/articles/us-...
Many of us have turned to ChatGPT to help with writing an email, summarising a report, or even brainstorming ideas. But in doing so, are we not just outsourcing our tasks, but our thinking too?
Does relying on AI ultimately make us less intelligent?
think.ing.com/articles/ai-...
Does relying on AI ultimately make us less intelligent?
think.ing.com/articles/ai-...
AI Monthly: is AI making us less intelligent?
Two recent studies suggest Large Language Models reduce cognitive engagement and creativity
think.ing.com
July 1, 2025 at 7:06 AM
Many of us have turned to ChatGPT to help with writing an email, summarising a report, or even brainstorming ideas. But in doing so, are we not just outsourcing our tasks, but our thinking too?
Does relying on AI ultimately make us less intelligent?
think.ing.com/articles/ai-...
Does relying on AI ultimately make us less intelligent?
think.ing.com/articles/ai-...
🇺🇸 President Trump's fiscal policies, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, are set to widen the US deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade.
Learn more about the economic impact here: think.ing.com/articles/how...
Learn more about the economic impact here: think.ing.com/articles/how...
How President Trump’s plans will impact the US deficit
This article explores the US fiscal position, the impact of policies, external factor sensitivities, and long-term government projections
think.ing.com
June 27, 2025 at 9:28 AM
🇺🇸 President Trump's fiscal policies, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, are set to widen the US deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade.
Learn more about the economic impact here: think.ing.com/articles/how...
Learn more about the economic impact here: think.ing.com/articles/how...
What's coming up next week...
Fed Chair Powell will no doubt defend the Fed’s data-driven stance amid political pressure to cut rates. Eurozone PMIs may confirm a services slowdown, while at the NATO Summit, new defence spending targets could be unveiled.
think.ing.com/articles/thi...
Fed Chair Powell will no doubt defend the Fed’s data-driven stance amid political pressure to cut rates. Eurozone PMIs may confirm a services slowdown, while at the NATO Summit, new defence spending targets could be unveiled.
think.ing.com/articles/thi...
THINK Ahead: Fed Chair Powell on the defence
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addresses Congress next week amid tensions over interest rate policy
think.ing.com
June 20, 2025 at 1:37 PM
What's coming up next week...
Fed Chair Powell will no doubt defend the Fed’s data-driven stance amid political pressure to cut rates. Eurozone PMIs may confirm a services slowdown, while at the NATO Summit, new defence spending targets could be unveiled.
think.ing.com/articles/thi...
Fed Chair Powell will no doubt defend the Fed’s data-driven stance amid political pressure to cut rates. Eurozone PMIs may confirm a services slowdown, while at the NATO Summit, new defence spending targets could be unveiled.
think.ing.com/articles/thi...
The economic impact of the Israel/Iran tensions. What it means for energy markets, central banks, FX, rates and credit.
think.ing.com/articles/mid...
think.ing.com/articles/mid...
Middle East Conflict: What it means for macro and markets
Israel's strikes on Iran could take oil prices above $80. This has implications for the global economy, markets and policy
think.ing.com
June 13, 2025 at 1:00 PM
The economic impact of the Israel/Iran tensions. What it means for energy markets, central banks, FX, rates and credit.
think.ing.com/articles/mid...
think.ing.com/articles/mid...
It's not every day ING's Carsten Brzeski compares the global economy to Tom Cruise's blockbuster movies: full of drama and action but hard to follow.
As we approach the halfway mark for 2025, here's our take on what has – and hasn't – happened so far this year.
think.ing.com/bundles/ing-...
As we approach the halfway mark for 2025, here's our take on what has – and hasn't – happened so far this year.
think.ing.com/bundles/ing-...
June 12, 2025 at 10:43 AM
It's not every day ING's Carsten Brzeski compares the global economy to Tom Cruise's blockbuster movies: full of drama and action but hard to follow.
As we approach the halfway mark for 2025, here's our take on what has – and hasn't – happened so far this year.
think.ing.com/bundles/ing-...
As we approach the halfway mark for 2025, here's our take on what has – and hasn't – happened so far this year.
think.ing.com/bundles/ing-...
While the bar for the Bank of England to speed up rate cuts seems to be set fairly high, today's UK jobs data helps cement cuts in August and November.
June 10, 2025 at 7:04 AM
While the bar for the Bank of England to speed up rate cuts seems to be set fairly high, today's UK jobs data helps cement cuts in August and November.
Rachel Reeves may be smiling here, but the real challenge lies ahead as she hunts for extra cash in a tight fiscal landscape.
ING's James Smith looks at the options, and finds that tax rises later this year are almost inevitable.
think.ing.com/articles/fin...
ING's James Smith looks at the options, and finds that tax rises later this year are almost inevitable.
think.ing.com/articles/fin...
Finding £20bn: The UK’s hunt for cash as fiscal headroom evaporates
UK tax rises look increasingly inevitable. Here's why
think.ing.com
June 6, 2025 at 8:21 AM
Rachel Reeves may be smiling here, but the real challenge lies ahead as she hunts for extra cash in a tight fiscal landscape.
ING's James Smith looks at the options, and finds that tax rises later this year are almost inevitable.
think.ing.com/articles/fin...
ING's James Smith looks at the options, and finds that tax rises later this year are almost inevitable.
think.ing.com/articles/fin...