Economics
88%
Political science
4%
Great discussions at the #RealTime #Economics Conference
@bundesbank.de (Eltville, 23–25 Oct)! Enjoyed exchanges on new #methods, #data, #nowcasting, & #forecasting with great colleagues. #research #macroeconomics
Poster link 👉 drive.google.com/file/d/1OWvY...
@bundesbank.de (Eltville, 23–25 Oct)! Enjoyed exchanges on new #methods, #data, #nowcasting, & #forecasting with great colleagues. #research #macroeconomics
Poster link 👉 drive.google.com/file/d/1OWvY...
Great to have been back in #Munich for the CESifo #Macroeconomics & #Survey #Data Conference at ifo Institute — soaked up great talks and enjoyed #Bavarian vibes!
drive.google.com/file/d/1qF4r...
drive.google.com/file/d/1qF4r...
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· Oct 3
Exciting week at @kofeth.bsky.social hosting #Uzbekistan’s Center for #Economic #Research and Reforms! 🚀
Deep dive into #macro #nowcasting & short-term #forecasting: DFM, MIDAS, ML, #data, R coding for #GDP nowcasts.
Deep dive into #macro #nowcasting & short-term #forecasting: DFM, MIDAS, ML, #data, R coding for #GDP nowcasts.
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· Sep 29
Global #growth to #slow in H2 2024, but #rebound in 2025 on policy easing, rising real wages & #German fiscal push for #Europe.
#GDP forecasts (%): 2025/26: 🇺🇸1.7/1.8, 🇨🇳4.9/4.5, 🇪🇺1.5/1.6, 🇩🇪0.3/1.2, 🇬🇧1.4/1.3, 🇫🇷0.7/1.1, 🇮🇹0.6/0.8, 🌍2.8/2.7.
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
@kofeth.bsky.social
#GDP forecasts (%): 2025/26: 🇺🇸1.7/1.8, 🇨🇳4.9/4.5, 🇪🇺1.5/1.6, 🇩🇪0.3/1.2, 🇬🇧1.4/1.3, 🇫🇷0.7/1.1, 🇮🇹0.6/0.8, 🌍2.8/2.7.
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
@kofeth.bsky.social
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· Sep 26
Great meeting Dimitris Georgarakos (@ecb.europa.eu) at @kofeth.bsky.social
#Research #seminar: #Randomized #scenario #survey #experiment shows: #geopolitical #risk → #households expect negative effects on #finances → cut #consumption.
With Gorodnichenko, Coibion & Kenny: www.nber.org/papers/w34195
#Research #seminar: #Randomized #scenario #survey #experiment shows: #geopolitical #risk → #households expect negative effects on #finances → cut #consumption.
With Gorodnichenko, Coibion & Kenny: www.nber.org/papers/w34195
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· Sep 26
Great pre-event for #KOF Fall 2025 #Forecast!
Interesting #exchange with journalists from Tages-Anzeiger, Finanz und Wirtschaft, and AWP.
Jan-Egbert Sturm & Hans Gersbach presenting on #Swiss & #international #trade, & how to react to recent #Trump #tariffs.
kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-...
Interesting #exchange with journalists from Tages-Anzeiger, Finanz und Wirtschaft, and AWP.
Jan-Egbert Sturm & Hans Gersbach presenting on #Swiss & #international #trade, & how to react to recent #Trump #tariffs.
kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-...
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· Sep 22
nowcastinglab.org
The #NowcastingLab presents the latest #GDP #Forecast for #Brazil! 📊
By Lucas Gabriel Martins de Oliveira (#macroeconomic #forecasting).
Check it out: nowcastinglab.org/assets/brazi...
More background: blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/09/22/b...
By Lucas Gabriel Martins de Oliveira (#macroeconomic #forecasting).
Check it out: nowcastinglab.org/assets/brazi...
More background: blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/09/22/b...
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· Sep 1
#International #macroeconomy at #crossroads: Pressing issues:
#Europe: Mixed signals from latest #indicators. Will #recovery stall before it turns into #upswing?
#USA: #Labor market shows weakness. Higher #tariffs & tighter #immigration put pressure on #costs & #prices. Run out of steam?
#Europe: Mixed signals from latest #indicators. Will #recovery stall before it turns into #upswing?
#USA: #Labor market shows weakness. Higher #tariffs & tighter #immigration put pressure on #costs & #prices. Run out of steam?
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· Sep 1
The #holiday season is behind us, and many of us are settling back into #work. Wishing you a #productive and #rewarding finish to the year!
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· Jul 11
How the Nowcasting Lab Consumed 10,000 MATLAB Licenses
In a recent and rather unexpected turn of events, the Nowcasting Lab managed to use up all available MATLAB licenses at ETH Zurich—approximately 10,000 in total. As a result, MATLAB license allocat…
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com
News from #KOF #Nowcasting Lab (nowcastinglab.org):
Reached unexpected "milestone": our #computing processes consumed so many #MATLAB #licenses that entire system came to a halt.
Full story on our #blog:
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/07/11/h...
@kofeth.bsky.social @mathworks.bsky.social
Reached unexpected "milestone": our #computing processes consumed so many #MATLAB #licenses that entire system came to a halt.
Full story on our #blog:
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/07/11/h...
@kofeth.bsky.social @mathworks.bsky.social
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· Jun 6
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· May 16
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· May 16
Impressions from Day 1 of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes #Meeting in #Oslo at Statistics Norway
Look at the #employment rate of refugees in Poland as compared to #Switzerland and #Germany!
Presentation by Marcin Klucznik (Polish Economic Institute).
@kofeth.bsky.social
Look at the #employment rate of refugees in Poland as compared to #Switzerland and #Germany!
Presentation by Marcin Klucznik (Polish Economic Institute).
@kofeth.bsky.social
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· May 13
#Meeting of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes this week in #Oslo (May, 15-16), hosted by #StatisticsNorway.
Two days packed with #presentations & #discussions on the #macroeconomic #outlook for #Europe and selected structural topics.
@kofeth.bsky.social
Two days packed with #presentations & #discussions on the #macroeconomic #outlook for #Europe and selected structural topics.
@kofeth.bsky.social
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· May 9
#Forecasting #NACE Activities in the #Eurostat Structural Business Statistics
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/05/09/n...
Excited to work, joint with Maurizio Daniele, as Experts on behalf of @ec.europa.eu Competence Centre on Composite #Indicators and Scoreboards (JRC-COIN).
#eu #kof #ethz
blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/05/09/n...
Excited to work, joint with Maurizio Daniele, as Experts on behalf of @ec.europa.eu Competence Centre on Composite #Indicators and Scoreboards (JRC-COIN).
#eu #kof #ethz
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· May 2
Another wonderful workshop last week:
#Machine #Learning #Economic #Forecasting and #Nowcasting Workshop
at #Copenhagen Business School organized by @striaukas.bsky.social
Presented on:
An Observation-Driven Mixed-Frequency VAR
Model With Closed-Form Solution
drive.google.com/file/d/1CXzK...
#Machine #Learning #Economic #Forecasting and #Nowcasting Workshop
at #Copenhagen Business School organized by @striaukas.bsky.social
Presented on:
An Observation-Driven Mixed-Frequency VAR
Model With Closed-Form Solution
drive.google.com/file/d/1CXzK...
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· May 2
Great to have participated in the
#Macro & #Financial #Econometrics Workshop
at U #Heidelberg organized by Christian Conrad
#research #economics #forecasting @kofeth.bsky.social
Photo impressions below:
#Macro & #Financial #Econometrics Workshop
at U #Heidelberg organized by Christian Conrad
#research #economics #forecasting @kofeth.bsky.social
Photo impressions below:
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· Apr 22
Dan Murphy (danpmurphy.com) at @kofeth.bsky.social BB Seminar:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#Housing and non-housing #consumption are complements.
#Households in smaller homes save more.
Denser countries → higher #saving, lower #rates.
Thought-provoking #research!
@ethzurich.bsky.social
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
#Housing and non-housing #consumption are complements.
#Households in smaller homes save more.
Denser countries → higher #saving, lower #rates.
Thought-provoking #research!
@ethzurich.bsky.social
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· Apr 4
#KOF #International #Forecasts Spring 2025:
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
#US will grow below potential as #consumer #spending & #investment weaken due to #tariffs & #uncertainty. #Europe eyes #upswing despite tariff threat; #Germany sees #fiscal boost from end 2025. #Risks from tariff #escalation.
kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts...
#US will grow below potential as #consumer #spending & #investment weaken due to #tariffs & #uncertainty. #Europe eyes #upswing despite tariff threat; #Germany sees #fiscal boost from end 2025. #Risks from tariff #escalation.
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· Mar 25
Wonderful #Conference on #Real-Time #Data Analysis, #Methods, and Applications in #Prague!!
Thank you Czech National Bank and CERGE-EI for the local organization.
drive.google.com/file/d/1sIZ9...
real-time-economics.org/wp-content/u...
#economics #research #macroeconomics
@kofeth.bsky.social
Thank you Czech National Bank and CERGE-EI for the local organization.
drive.google.com/file/d/1sIZ9...
real-time-economics.org/wp-content/u...
#economics #research #macroeconomics
@kofeth.bsky.social
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· Mar 10
#Macroeconomic #forecast process at @kofeth.bsky.social started with discussion of #international #economic #outlook.
One key topic: #Fiscal #stimulus plans in #Germany. How much? When? #Multiplier size? --- Will take a while to materialize, but then #growth effects will be strong temporarily.
One key topic: #Fiscal #stimulus plans in #Germany. How much? When? #Multiplier size? --- Will take a while to materialize, but then #growth effects will be strong temporarily.
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· Mar 7
Interesting #Macro & #Finance #Roundtable by Anjeza Kadilli (HEG) and Reto Cueni (Vontobel)
Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank) presenting on:
Implications of #Geoeconomic #Fragmentation for Bystanders
cepr.org/publications...
Good discussion among the participants!
#research #policy #geoeconomics
Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank) presenting on:
Implications of #Geoeconomic #Fragmentation for Bystanders
cepr.org/publications...
Good discussion among the participants!
#research #policy #geoeconomics
Reposted by Heiner Mikosch
Zölle gegen Kanada und Mexiko – Trump startet Handelskrieg - Tagesschau - Play SRF
Die von US-Präsident Donald Trump angekündigten Importzölle auf Waren aus Mexiko und Kanada sind in Kraft getreten. Jetzt droht ein nordamerikanischer Handelskonflikt von unbestimmter Dauer und ungewi...
www.srf.ch
"Wir könnten jetzt in einen regelrechten Handelskrieg geraten" warnt KOF-Ökonom Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social im Beitrag der Tagesschau @SRF angesichts der von den USA erhobenen Zölle gegen Kanada und Mexiko www.srf.ch/play/tv/-/vi...
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· Mar 3
#Research talk by @iyotzov.bsky.social (BoE) at @kofeth.bsky.social:
How Curvy is the Phillips Curve? - Convex, but only for high #inflation #firms (cf. figure).
www.nber.org/papers/w33234
Thanx @lukashack.bsky.social & @eneabaselgia.bsky.social!
Pic: Ivan, Remo Gurtner & @hmikosch.bsky.social:
How Curvy is the Phillips Curve? - Convex, but only for high #inflation #firms (cf. figure).
www.nber.org/papers/w33234
Thanx @lukashack.bsky.social & @eneabaselgia.bsky.social!
Pic: Ivan, Remo Gurtner & @hmikosch.bsky.social:
Heiner Mikosch
@hmikosch.bsky.social
· Feb 12
10 vor 10 - Auswirkungen von US-Zöllen und Gegenzöllen - Play SRF
US-Importzölle für Güter aus Mexico sind vorerst um einen Monat aufgeschoben. Wie reagiert die EU auf angekündigte US-Zölle und welche Auswirkungen drohen der Schweiz?
www.srf.ch
Mein erster Post auf #Bluesky:
Was ist von Donald Trumps "Zolldrohstrategie" zu halten?
Hier ein Statement dazu in #SRF 10 vor 10 letzte Woche:
www.srf.ch/play/tv/10-v...
Ein knappes Textmemo zum Thema:
drive.google.com/file/d/1_FTb...
#Zoll #USA #EU #Trump #KOF #ETHZ
Was ist von Donald Trumps "Zolldrohstrategie" zu halten?
Hier ein Statement dazu in #SRF 10 vor 10 letzte Woche:
www.srf.ch/play/tv/10-v...
Ein knappes Textmemo zum Thema:
drive.google.com/file/d/1_FTb...
#Zoll #USA #EU #Trump #KOF #ETHZ