Human Capital HCEO - CEHD
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hceconomics.bsky.social
Human Capital HCEO - CEHD
@hceconomics.bsky.social
420 followers 260 following 120 posts
Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Global Working Group at the @UChicago Center for the Economics of Human Development. We generate & share research on how people achieve their fullest potential. https://hceconomics.uchicago.edu https://cehd.uchicago.
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hceconomics.bsky.social
Thanks, Asia Research News, for this piece on our China REACH program w/ CityUHK. We’ve learned so much about how enhancing interactions between caregivers and young children in rural areas can boost skills & long-term outcomes. @heckmanequation.bsky.social
www.asiaresearchnews.com/content/city...
CityUHK economist and Nobel Laureate co-lead global early childhood research, benefiting over 80,000 rural children in China
CityUHK economist together with Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences are jointly leading the early childhood research programme China REACH. The study aims to provide a practical, evidence-based framew...
www.asiaresearchnews.com
February 6, 2026 at 9:09 PM
hceconomics.bsky.social
New! Updated working paper from HCEO members Mariana Laverde and @aaronsojourner.org.
hceconomics.uchicago.edu/research/wor...
Match Effects and the Gains from Alternative Job Assignments: Evidence from a Teacher Labor Market | HCEO
hceconomics.uchicago.edu
February 5, 2026 at 6:25 PM
hceconomics.bsky.social
New working paper from HCEO member Daniela Del Boca on boosting parenting skills: hceconomics.uchicago.edu/research/wor...
Strengthening Improving Parenting Skills through Community-Based Interventions: Evidence from the Crescere nel Villaggio Project | HCEO
hceconomics.uchicago.edu
February 4, 2026 at 4:54 PM
hceconomics.bsky.social
HCEO member Giovanni Gallipoli explores the dimensions of demand for liquidity at the end of life in a new HCEO working paper with Neha Bairoliya and Kathleen McKiernan. hceconomics.uchicago.edu/research/wor...
End-of-Life Liquidity | HCEO
hceconomics.uchicago.edu
February 2, 2026 at 4:44 PM
Reposted by Human Capital HCEO - CEHD
beckerfriedman.bsky.social
New research by Soeren J. Henn and James Robinson challenges common views of pre-colonial Africa. Decentralized political systems prioritized local communities and shaped economic institutions around shared goals rather than centralized control or personal accumulation.

🔗 https://ow.ly/7aXE50Y5shY
Africa as a Success Story: Political Organization in Pre-Colonial Africa | Becker Friedman Institute
Social science research has long credited the emergence of politically centralized states with the development of institutions that enhance public good provision and better development outcomes, as well as allowing for the ability to fight wars, collect taxes, conduct international trade, manage natural resources, and otherwise respond to the demands of both state leaders and Read more...
ow.ly
January 30, 2026 at 3:55 PM
hceconomics.bsky.social
When measuring growth of knowledge and comparing people's skills, there’s a problem when new skills emerge that don’t fit existing scales. @heckmanequation.bsky.social, Haihan Tian, Jin Zhou & Zijian Zhang have addressed this by developing a novel measurement scheme. www.nber.org/papers/w34737
Measuring the Growth of Skills
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
January 26, 2026 at 3:22 PM
hceconomics.bsky.social
New from HCEO member Michael Lovenheim et al: women and underrepresented minorities are less likely to major in high-earning fields like business, economics, engineering, and computer science in college -- but when they do, they experience lower returns to these majors. www.nber.org/papers/w34726
The Contribution of College Majors to Gender and Racial Earnings Differences
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
January 26, 2026 at 3:02 PM
Reposted by Human Capital HCEO - CEHD
gabriconti.bsky.social
“The #Menopause ‘#Penalty’” now out as #CSEF Working Paper No. 770 (Jan 2026)!

📄 www.csef.it/WP/wp770.pdf

First circulated in March 2024 - the topic quickly sparked discussion beyond academia. ✨

With @rginja.bsky.social, Petra Persson & @bartonwillage.com
www.csef.it
January 20, 2026 at 4:48 PM
Reposted by Human Capital HCEO - CEHD
paulgp.com
Posted a very early stage draft with rock star collaborators.

Key question: when we actually roll out AI tools, how do people use them? Do they just defer completely? Does it improve productivity and ability?

We look in the medical setting of pulmonary embolisms
paulgp.com/papers/Radio...
We study how radiologists use AI to diagnose pulmonary embolism (PE), tracking over 100,000 scans interpreted by nearly 400 radiologists during the staggered rollout of an FDA-approved diagnostic platform. When AI flags PE, radiologists agree 84% of the time; when AI predicts no PE, they agree 97%. Disagreement evolves substantially: radiologists initially reject AI-positive PEs in 30% of cases, dropping to 12% by year two. Despite a 16% increase in scan volume, diagnostic speed remains stable while per-radiologist monthly volumes nearly double, with no change in patient mortality—suggesting AI improves workflow without compromising outcomes. We document significant heterogeneity in AI collaboration: some radiologists reject AI-flagged PEs half the time while others accept nearly always; female radiologists are 6 percentage points less likely to override AI than male radiologists. Moderate AI engagement is associated with the highest agreement, whereas both low and high engagement show more disagreement. Follow-up imaging reveals that when radiologists override AI to diagnose PE, 54% of subsequent scans show both agreeing on no PE within 30 days.
January 19, 2026 at 8:17 PM
Reposted by Human Capital HCEO - CEHD
nber.org
Community college bachelor’s degrees pay off in some fields but not all, offering higher earnings than associate degrees and mixed returns relative to traditional BAs, from Riley K. Acton, Camila Morales, Kalena Cortes, Julia A. Turner, and @loismiller.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34684
January 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM
hceconomics.bsky.social
A new paper from @heckmanequation.bsky.social and coauthors shows multigenerational effects of early-life advantage. Monkeys raised by their mothers benefit compared to those raised apart -- but only if the mothers were ALSO mother-reared. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Effects of Multigenerational Exposure to Early-Life Advantage: Lessons from a Primate Study | Journal of Political Economy: Vol 134, No 1
This paper uses three decades of data on rhesus monkeys to investigate the multigenerational effects of early-life advantage. Monkeys and their offspring are both randomly assigned to be reared togeth...
www.journals.uchicago.edu
January 16, 2026 at 5:34 PM
hceconomics.bsky.social
New from HCEO member Orazio Attanasio:
www.nber.org/papers/w34651
The first 1000 days and beyond: The process of child development.
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
January 12, 2026 at 6:04 PM
hceconomics.bsky.social
In a new working paper, HCEO member Svetlana Pashchenko and colleagues explore the best ways to reform Social Security by quantifying its distortions, redistribution, and welfare effects. hceconomics.uchicago.edu/research/wor...
Redistribution, Distortions, and the Welfare Effects of Social Security | HCEO
hceconomics.uchicago.edu
January 9, 2026 at 2:34 PM
hceconomics.bsky.social
A brief entrepreneurship course improved Ugandan secondary school students' skills and led them to launch more enterprises that outperformed those launched by peers who were not in the program. Findings are detailed in a new paper from HCEO member Paul Gertler et al. www.nber.org/papers/w34637
Making Entrepreneurs: Long Term Returns to Training Youth in Business Skills
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
January 5, 2026 at 5:18 PM
hceconomics.bsky.social
A new @nber.org working paper from HCEO member Costas Meghir, Philippe Aghion & Ingvild Almås examines the role of human capital in driving economic development, innovation, and growth -- and the barriers to skill acquisition. www.nber.org/papers/w34602
Human Capital and Development
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
December 29, 2025 at 5:04 PM
hceconomics.bsky.social
Of interest:

www.nber.org/papers/w34599
An Evaluation of Biases in Wellbeing Estimates Using Interviewers Versus Online Data Collection in the Global Flourishing Study
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
December 22, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Reposted by Human Capital HCEO - CEHD
aaronsojourner.org
I don't vouch for this quality of the analysis here (haven't read the details) but it asks an important question:

What would the labor market impacts be of ending ACA premium tax credits?
publichealth.gwu.edu/new-report-a...
The analysis, led by Leighton Ku and colleagues at GW, used new data to update earlier research that explored the economic impacts of letting the ACA marketplace tax credits expire. Key Research Findings: Federal funding for marketplace tax credits will decline by $31 billion. The reductions in funding for healthcare and related downstream impact, will cause state economies to shrink by nearly $41 billion. Because of these economic losses, nearly 340,000 jobs will be lost in 2026; slightly less than half will be in the healthcare sector. State and local revenues will decline by $2.5 billion. States hit hardest by the job losses are predominantly in the South. Texas leads the pack, followed by Florida, Georgia, California, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Louisiana, North Carolina and Mississippi. “There is an urgent need to decide whether to extend the ACA tax credits soon; insurance enrollment begins on November 1. Not only will health insurance costs soar for millions if the tax credits are not sustained, there will be severe economic consequences and more than 300,000 Americans could lose their jobs,” said Leighton Ku, professor of health policy and lead author of the report.
December 17, 2025 at 4:45 PM
hceconomics.bsky.social
New from HCEO member Paul Gertler et al: Creating more preschool capacity raised the probability of completing secondary school by 11.9 percentage points and of enrolling in college by 7.1 percentage points. www.nber.org/papers/w34552
Long-run Effects of Universal Pre-Primary Education Expansion: Evidence from Argentina
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
December 17, 2025 at 5:50 PM
hceconomics.bsky.social
New from HCEO member Paul Gertler and coauthors: www.nber.org/papers/w34560
In-situ Upgrading or Population Relocation? Direct Impacts and Spatial Spillovers of Slum Renewal Policies
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
December 15, 2025 at 8:49 PM
hceconomics.bsky.social
New @nber.org paper: an RTC studying a cash transfer program in Burkina Faso finds that “adding home visits is essential for improving childhood development, while cash, with or without information, produces no lasting impacts.
www.nber.org/papers/w34578
Medium-Term Impacts of Integrated Social Safety Nets: Cash Transfers, Information Meetings, and Home Visits for Child Development
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
December 15, 2025 at 8:34 PM
hceconomics.bsky.social
New @NBER.org working paper from HCEO member Kerwin Kofi Charles and colleagues: www.nber.org/papers/w34526
Avoiding Prejudice: Islamophobia and the Labor Supply of Arabs and Muslims in the U.S.
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
December 8, 2025 at 5:57 PM
Reposted by Human Capital HCEO - CEHD
ckfarquharson.bsky.social
Absolutely delighted our research has won the ONS' Research Excellence prize for impact!

I always say to people that the ideal @theifs.bsky.social work is rigorous enough to publish in top journals, and relevant enough to be on the front page. I think we've ticked that box here!
December 4, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Reposted by Human Capital HCEO - CEHD
mathematicanow.bsky.social
New case study: In partnership with the Bezos Family Foundation, we explored how a simple, science-based early-learning resource embedded in TANF services can modestly but meaningfully increase program engagement and support childhood development. mathematica.org/casestudy/st...
Strengthening TANF engagement through early childhood development science
How small, practical tips and tools can support parents during a pivotal stage of child development
mathematica.org
December 4, 2025 at 5:50 PM
hceconomics.bsky.social
New @nber.org paper of interest:
“Strengthening labor markets explain about 60% of the post-Great Recession decline in first-time community college enrollment.” Students whose enrollment is most sensitive to labor market conditions are unlikely to complete a degree.
www.nber.org/papers/w3449...
Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
December 1, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Reposted by Human Capital HCEO - CEHD
evavivalt.bsky.social
🚨 New working paper!

How well do people predict the results of studies?

@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
November 24, 2025 at 3:43 PM