Gust23
@gust2319.bsky.social
Hello! I like talking about politics on the internet.
Here is a map of the probability that the incumbent party in each municipality in Denmark keeps the position of mayor after the 18 November election, according to betting odds.
Municipalities colored black have no odds.
Municipalities colored black have no odds.
November 2, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Here is a map of the probability that the incumbent party in each municipality in Denmark keeps the position of mayor after the 18 November election, according to betting odds.
Municipalities colored black have no odds.
Municipalities colored black have no odds.
I have been following the Dutch election, and it basically will come down to the very last reported votes, what majorities are possible. D66 is very close a 27th seat, which would make D66-VVD-CDA-JA21 just exactly have a majority of 76 seats.
October 30, 2025 at 12:59 PM
I have been following the Dutch election, and it basically will come down to the very last reported votes, what majorities are possible. D66 is very close a 27th seat, which would make D66-VVD-CDA-JA21 just exactly have a majority of 76 seats.
The Danish pollster Epinion just did a massive poll for the municipal election with more than 100,000 respondents. Here's a map showing what party, according to the poll, would get a plurality of the vote in each municipality and region.
October 22, 2025 at 6:40 AM
The Danish pollster Epinion just did a massive poll for the municipal election with more than 100,000 respondents. Here's a map showing what party, according to the poll, would get a plurality of the vote in each municipality and region.
Here is the one image that explains why Mette Frederiksen is currently in a lot of trouble. She is currently set to lose the left-wing parliamentary majority, which could threaten her position of Prime Minister after the next election.
October 20, 2025 at 9:27 AM
Here is the one image that explains why Mette Frederiksen is currently in a lot of trouble. She is currently set to lose the left-wing parliamentary majority, which could threaten her position of Prime Minister after the next election.
Here's the overview of the number of candidate lists and number of candidates corresponding to each party letter at the Danish municipal election. Parties with national ballot access (A, B, C, etc.) are uniquely assigned its corresponding letter. The remaining are not reserved.
October 7, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Here's the overview of the number of candidate lists and number of candidates corresponding to each party letter at the Danish municipal election. Parties with national ballot access (A, B, C, etc.) are uniquely assigned its corresponding letter. The remaining are not reserved.
I was asked about the rise of the Danish People's Party (O) in a DM, and thought I would share my response as to why the party is gaining in the polls.
To me there are three prominent causes.🧵
To me there are three prominent causes.🧵
October 7, 2025 at 12:15 PM
I was asked about the rise of the Danish People's Party (O) in a DM, and thought I would share my response as to why the party is gaining in the polls.
To me there are three prominent causes.🧵
To me there are three prominent causes.🧵
Now that the deadline has just passed, Danish municipalities are starting to release the candidate lists and electoral alliances.
You can view it all on valg.dk
You can view it all on valg.dk
October 6, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Now that the deadline has just passed, Danish municipalities are starting to release the candidate lists and electoral alliances.
You can view it all on valg.dk
You can view it all on valg.dk
Here are the electoral alliances announced for the municipal election in Copenhagen. It is one of the most high profile ones in years because its outcome is open.
Tomorrow is the deadline for approving candidate lists and electoral alliances for the Danish municipal elections.
Tomorrow is the deadline for approving candidate lists and electoral alliances for the Danish municipal elections.
October 5, 2025 at 10:08 PM
Here are the electoral alliances announced for the municipal election in Copenhagen. It is one of the most high profile ones in years because its outcome is open.
Tomorrow is the deadline for approving candidate lists and electoral alliances for the Danish municipal elections.
Tomorrow is the deadline for approving candidate lists and electoral alliances for the Danish municipal elections.
By the way, if anyone thinks PPDA is pro-European, go check out its facebook profile. It has posts saying that the Sandu government is "Sorosist" and supported by globalists.
For whatever label Wikipedia has put on it, its rhetoric has much in common with the pro-Russians.
For whatever label Wikipedia has put on it, its rhetoric has much in common with the pro-Russians.
September 28, 2025 at 8:18 PM
By the way, if anyone thinks PPDA is pro-European, go check out its facebook profile. It has posts saying that the Sandu government is "Sorosist" and supported by globalists.
For whatever label Wikipedia has put on it, its rhetoric has much in common with the pro-Russians.
For whatever label Wikipedia has put on it, its rhetoric has much in common with the pro-Russians.
Did a somewhat rudimentary projection of the 2025 Moldovan parliamentary election. It looks like the pro-European party of President Maia Sandu will win a majority of seats. The exact outcome depends on the votes cast by voters abroad, most of which are yet to be counted.
September 28, 2025 at 7:39 PM
Did a somewhat rudimentary projection of the 2025 Moldovan parliamentary election. It looks like the pro-European party of President Maia Sandu will win a majority of seats. The exact outcome depends on the votes cast by voters abroad, most of which are yet to be counted.
The Danish Social Democrats are doing a reshuffle of their ministers today. Their biggest hardliner on immigration, Rasmus Stoklund becomes Immigration and Integration Minister. No doubt a reaction to recent opinion polls and an attempt at winning back ground on that front.
September 23, 2025 at 9:28 AM
The Danish Social Democrats are doing a reshuffle of their ministers today. Their biggest hardliner on immigration, Rasmus Stoklund becomes Immigration and Integration Minister. No doubt a reaction to recent opinion polls and an attempt at winning back ground on that front.
Since this is up in the news again, here is a projection of what the electoral map in Germany would look like, if an election was held today, given current opinion polling. The first map shows the constituency vote, the second the party list vote.
September 19, 2025 at 6:32 AM
Since this is up in the news again, here is a projection of what the electoral map in Germany would look like, if an election was held today, given current opinion polling. The first map shows the constituency vote, the second the party list vote.
Update: This has changed with the votes that were counted today. H gains a seat from Frp in Aust-Agder by a margin of 42 votes. This causes a cascade effect across four other constituencies. Overall Frp, loses one seat, while MDG gains one seat.
bsky.app/profile/gust...
bsky.app/profile/gust...
Did a map of the 2025 Norwegian election. The red-green bloc wins by about 3% of the vote, securing a 87 to 82 majority, and allowing Prime Minister Støre to continue in office.
Note that while almost all votes are counted, small shifts (namely in levelling seats) can occur.
Note that while almost all votes are counted, small shifts (namely in levelling seats) can occur.
September 9, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Update: This has changed with the votes that were counted today. H gains a seat from Frp in Aust-Agder by a margin of 42 votes. This causes a cascade effect across four other constituencies. Overall Frp, loses one seat, while MDG gains one seat.
bsky.app/profile/gust...
bsky.app/profile/gust...
Did a map of the 2025 Norwegian election. The red-green bloc wins by about 3% of the vote, securing a 87 to 82 majority, and allowing Prime Minister Støre to continue in office.
Note that while almost all votes are counted, small shifts (namely in levelling seats) can occur.
Note that while almost all votes are counted, small shifts (namely in levelling seats) can occur.
September 8, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Did a map of the 2025 Norwegian election. The red-green bloc wins by about 3% of the vote, securing a 87 to 82 majority, and allowing Prime Minister Støre to continue in office.
Note that while almost all votes are counted, small shifts (namely in levelling seats) can occur.
Note that while almost all votes are counted, small shifts (namely in levelling seats) can occur.
Here is the result of the 2021 Norwegian election, broken down according to vote type. Hopefully will be useful as a reference when interpreting the early results that will be reported soon (which will be entirely early votes)
September 8, 2025 at 6:41 PM
Here is the result of the 2021 Norwegian election, broken down according to vote type. Hopefully will be useful as a reference when interpreting the early results that will be reported soon (which will be entirely early votes)
The Norwegian election is being held today. Here's how you can follow it:
- Polling places close at 21:00 CEST (19:00 UTC), at which point initial results will immediately be reported. The media will then soon do initial projections.
- Results site is: valgresultat.no
- Polling places close at 21:00 CEST (19:00 UTC), at which point initial results will immediately be reported. The media will then soon do initial projections.
- Results site is: valgresultat.no
September 8, 2025 at 3:28 PM
The Norwegian election is being held today. Here's how you can follow it:
- Polling places close at 21:00 CEST (19:00 UTC), at which point initial results will immediately be reported. The media will then soon do initial projections.
- Results site is: valgresultat.no
- Polling places close at 21:00 CEST (19:00 UTC), at which point initial results will immediately be reported. The media will then soon do initial projections.
- Results site is: valgresultat.no
The right-wing in Norway have thrown what looked not just like a certain win, but for a moment a massively large one at that. Absolute staggering incompetence.
September 6, 2025 at 5:17 PM
The right-wing in Norway have thrown what looked not just like a certain win, but for a moment a massively large one at that. Absolute staggering incompetence.
Norwegian Save the Children have organised their own children's election for students in 5th to 10th grade. The results are quite a bit different from the school election that occurred recently.
Here's a map of the results of the election.
Here's a map of the results of the election.
September 5, 2025 at 11:43 AM
Norwegian Save the Children have organised their own children's election for students in 5th to 10th grade. The results are quite a bit different from the school election that occurred recently.
Here's a map of the results of the election.
Here's a map of the results of the election.
The results of the Norwegian school election have just been published. This is a mock election held at Norwegian secondary schools, with voters being age ~16-19.
I have mapped out the results, which show the right-wing parties doing much better than among the general electorate.
I have mapped out the results, which show the right-wing parties doing much better than among the general electorate.
September 2, 2025 at 6:58 PM
The results of the Norwegian school election have just been published. This is a mock election held at Norwegian secondary schools, with voters being age ~16-19.
I have mapped out the results, which show the right-wing parties doing much better than among the general electorate.
I have mapped out the results, which show the right-wing parties doing much better than among the general electorate.
Here's an example of how the right-wing (Frp, H, Krf, V) could win the Norwegian election despite getting fewer votes overall. This is not a poll or a projection, but simply a calculation example based on current polling.
September 2, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Here's an example of how the right-wing (Frp, H, Krf, V) could win the Norwegian election despite getting fewer votes overall. This is not a poll or a projection, but simply a calculation example based on current polling.
For the first time since the 2022 Danish election, the blue bloc (without M) is larger than the red bloc. This would put Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen at serious risk if an election was held today.
🟦Blue Bloc 48.2%, 84 seats
🟥Red Bloc 47.7%, 85 seats
🟪M 3.2%, 6 seats
🟦Blue Bloc 48.2%, 84 seats
🟥Red Bloc 47.7%, 85 seats
🟪M 3.2%, 6 seats
September 1, 2025 at 9:40 AM
For the first time since the 2022 Danish election, the blue bloc (without M) is larger than the red bloc. This would put Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen at serious risk if an election was held today.
🟦Blue Bloc 48.2%, 84 seats
🟥Red Bloc 47.7%, 85 seats
🟪M 3.2%, 6 seats
🟦Blue Bloc 48.2%, 84 seats
🟥Red Bloc 47.7%, 85 seats
🟪M 3.2%, 6 seats
Here is the recently published Norwegian "mega" poll mapped out. As things are right now, Prime Minister Støre and his red-green bloc is likely to beat the bourgeois bloc, led by former Prime Minister Erna Solberg.
August 27, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Here is the recently published Norwegian "mega" poll mapped out. As things are right now, Prime Minister Støre and his red-green bloc is likely to beat the bourgeois bloc, led by former Prime Minister Erna Solberg.
Update: This is what the numbers look like if I put in the opinion polls from August.
bsky.app/profile/gust...
bsky.app/profile/gust...
This is what the current opinion polling in the UK implies in terms of number of seats won, if you model the vote based on a simple proportional swing. Goes to show how utterly ridiculous the electoral system is becoming.
August 23, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Update: This is what the numbers look like if I put in the opinion polls from August.
bsky.app/profile/gust...
bsky.app/profile/gust...
Did maps of the 1953 to 2021 Norwegian parliamentary elections.
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1953
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1953
August 22, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Did maps of the 1953 to 2021 Norwegian parliamentary elections.
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1953
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1953
The first Danish opinion polls in August have been rather bad for Mette Frederiksen. If you had asked me earlier this year, I would have said her re-election was basically certain. Now? Well according to the polls, her bloc is on track to lose its majority.
August 22, 2025 at 7:48 AM
The first Danish opinion polls in August have been rather bad for Mette Frederiksen. If you had asked me earlier this year, I would have said her re-election was basically certain. Now? Well according to the polls, her bloc is on track to lose its majority.