Gust23
@gust2319.bsky.social
Hello! I like talking about politics on the internet.
I have been looking at today's Japanese election and to illustrate just how surprising the result has been, as far as I can tell, the winning LDP actually loses 13 seats due to not having run enough candidates.
In multiple proportional blocs it ran out of candidates.
In multiple proportional blocs it ran out of candidates.
February 8, 2026 at 5:57 PM
I have been looking at today's Japanese election and to illustrate just how surprising the result has been, as far as I can tell, the winning LDP actually loses 13 seats due to not having run enough candidates.
In multiple proportional blocs it ran out of candidates.
In multiple proportional blocs it ran out of candidates.
Today's Danish opinion poll from Voxmeter is once again notable and shocking:
🟥 Red Bloc 48.4% (+2.0%), 84 seats
🟦 Blue Bloc 44.1% (-6.3%), 79 seats
🟪 M 7.0% (+4.2%), 12 seats
(Comparison from December 2025)
Government parties also go from 33.9% to 40.9%
🟥 Red Bloc 48.4% (+2.0%), 84 seats
🟦 Blue Bloc 44.1% (-6.3%), 79 seats
🟪 M 7.0% (+4.2%), 12 seats
(Comparison from December 2025)
Government parties also go from 33.9% to 40.9%
January 26, 2026 at 10:58 AM
Today's Danish opinion poll from Voxmeter is once again notable and shocking:
🟥 Red Bloc 48.4% (+2.0%), 84 seats
🟦 Blue Bloc 44.1% (-6.3%), 79 seats
🟪 M 7.0% (+4.2%), 12 seats
(Comparison from December 2025)
Government parties also go from 33.9% to 40.9%
🟥 Red Bloc 48.4% (+2.0%), 84 seats
🟦 Blue Bloc 44.1% (-6.3%), 79 seats
🟪 M 7.0% (+4.2%), 12 seats
(Comparison from December 2025)
Government parties also go from 33.9% to 40.9%
Today's Danish opinion poll from Megafon is beyond crazy. The red bloc regains a majority and the blue bloc loses 9% of the vote since last month:
🟥 Red Bloc 51.7%, 90 seats
🟦 Blue Bloc 41.9%, 73 seats
🟪 M 6.4%, 12 seats
Danish politics has completely changed in just a month.
🟥 Red Bloc 51.7%, 90 seats
🟦 Blue Bloc 41.9%, 73 seats
🟪 M 6.4%, 12 seats
Danish politics has completely changed in just a month.
January 23, 2026 at 5:27 AM
Today's Danish opinion poll from Megafon is beyond crazy. The red bloc regains a majority and the blue bloc loses 9% of the vote since last month:
🟥 Red Bloc 51.7%, 90 seats
🟦 Blue Bloc 41.9%, 73 seats
🟪 M 6.4%, 12 seats
Danish politics has completely changed in just a month.
🟥 Red Bloc 51.7%, 90 seats
🟦 Blue Bloc 41.9%, 73 seats
🟪 M 6.4%, 12 seats
Danish politics has completely changed in just a month.
The change this causes to the polling graph (by bloc) is crazy. If polls from other pollsters also show this, then the entire dynamic heading into the election has shifted dramatically.
bsky.app/profile/gust...
bsky.app/profile/gust...
January 12, 2026 at 11:17 AM
The change this causes to the polling graph (by bloc) is crazy. If polls from other pollsters also show this, then the entire dynamic heading into the election has shifted dramatically.
bsky.app/profile/gust...
bsky.app/profile/gust...
In a major shift from the end of last year, the first Danish opinion poll of 2026 indicates that exactly half of voters (50.0%) would vote for the red bloc. Frederiksen's position seems to have improved since December.
www.bt.dk/politik/vild...
www.bt.dk/politik/vild...
Vild udvikling: Halvdelen kigger mod rød blok
Rød blok får halvdelen af stemmerne i Voxmeter-måling. Socialdemokratiet er fortsat langt fra 2022-resultat.
www.bt.dk
January 12, 2026 at 10:31 AM
In a major shift from the end of last year, the first Danish opinion poll of 2026 indicates that exactly half of voters (50.0%) would vote for the red bloc. Frederiksen's position seems to have improved since December.
www.bt.dk/politik/vild...
www.bt.dk/politik/vild...
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen giving a pretty offensive New Year's speech, clearly positioning her for the upcoming election, admitting that this could be her last such speech as Prime Minister.
Says a part of the criticism the past years about her is warranted.
Says a part of the criticism the past years about her is warranted.
January 1, 2026 at 5:26 PM
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen giving a pretty offensive New Year's speech, clearly positioning her for the upcoming election, admitting that this could be her last such speech as Prime Minister.
Says a part of the criticism the past years about her is warranted.
Says a part of the criticism the past years about her is warranted.
In Denmark, DR has published its annual poll asking voters whether they support/approve of the Danish Royal Family. Here are the results:
"Do you think we should keep or abolish the monarchy in Denmark?"
Keep 72% (-3%)
Abolish 15% (+1%)
"Do you think we should keep or abolish the monarchy in Denmark?"
Keep 72% (-3%)
Abolish 15% (+1%)
December 30, 2025 at 10:14 PM
In Denmark, DR has published its annual poll asking voters whether they support/approve of the Danish Royal Family. Here are the results:
"Do you think we should keep or abolish the monarchy in Denmark?"
Keep 72% (-3%)
Abolish 15% (+1%)
"Do you think we should keep or abolish the monarchy in Denmark?"
Keep 72% (-3%)
Abolish 15% (+1%)
The Social Democrats are in an absolutely terrible spot at the moment. It's not just one single issue that is causing its very bad polls. It's a sum of multiple problems, which they can't just easily solve.
bsky.app/profile/euro...
bsky.app/profile/euro...
Denmark, Voxmeter poll:
A-S&D: 18% (-1)
F-G/EFA: 16% (+1)
I-EPP: 12% (+1)
V-RE: 11% (-1)
Æ-ECR: 9%
O-PfE: 8% (-1)
Ø-LEFT: 8% (+1)
C-EPP: 7%
B-RE: 5% (+1)
M-RE: 3%
H-*: 2%
Å→G/EFA: 2%
+/- vs. 24-30 November 2025
Fieldwork: 01-07 December 2025
Sample size: 1,005
➤ europeelects.eu/denmark
A-S&D: 18% (-1)
F-G/EFA: 16% (+1)
I-EPP: 12% (+1)
V-RE: 11% (-1)
Æ-ECR: 9%
O-PfE: 8% (-1)
Ø-LEFT: 8% (+1)
C-EPP: 7%
B-RE: 5% (+1)
M-RE: 3%
H-*: 2%
Å→G/EFA: 2%
+/- vs. 24-30 November 2025
Fieldwork: 01-07 December 2025
Sample size: 1,005
➤ europeelects.eu/denmark
December 8, 2025 at 8:59 PM
The Social Democrats are in an absolutely terrible spot at the moment. It's not just one single issue that is causing its very bad polls. It's a sum of multiple problems, which they can't just easily solve.
bsky.app/profile/euro...
bsky.app/profile/euro...
According to my model, Ciucu (PNL) will win by about 12%. So Romanian polls are once again not very good.
bsky.app/profile/euro...
bsky.app/profile/euro...
Romania, 12.57% polling stations counted:
Bucharest mayoral election
Ciucu (PNL-EPP): 29.6% (+21.9)
Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 26.9% (new)
Băluță (PSD-S&D): 22.3%
Drulă (USR-RE): 13.3% (new)
Ciceală (SENS→Greens/EFA): 5.7% (new)
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
Bucharest mayoral election
Ciucu (PNL-EPP): 29.6% (+21.9)
Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 26.9% (new)
Băluță (PSD-S&D): 22.3%
Drulă (USR-RE): 13.3% (new)
Ciceală (SENS→Greens/EFA): 5.7% (new)
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
December 7, 2025 at 8:13 PM
According to my model, Ciucu (PNL) will win by about 12%. So Romanian polls are once again not very good.
bsky.app/profile/euro...
bsky.app/profile/euro...
While there is a limit of how much one opinion poll can say, this is probably the most staggering Danish poll I have seen in a long time.
This is the worst poll for red bloc in this entire electoral term and by far the best poll for blue bloc, which would have a 94-81 majority.
This is the worst poll for red bloc in this entire electoral term and by far the best poll for blue bloc, which would have a 94-81 majority.
November 28, 2025 at 11:37 AM
While there is a limit of how much one opinion poll can say, this is probably the most staggering Danish poll I have seen in a long time.
This is the worst poll for red bloc in this entire electoral term and by far the best poll for blue bloc, which would have a 94-81 majority.
This is the worst poll for red bloc in this entire electoral term and by far the best poll for blue bloc, which would have a 94-81 majority.
The Danish People's Party (O) wins the position of mayor in Slagelse Municipality after the other right-wing parties ended up offering the position during the negotiations.
November 23, 2025 at 3:24 PM
The Danish People's Party (O) wins the position of mayor in Slagelse Municipality after the other right-wing parties ended up offering the position during the negotiations.
Did two maps of the 2025 Danish municipal (left) and regional (right) elections by polling area.
November 23, 2025 at 12:44 PM
Did two maps of the 2025 Danish municipal (left) and regional (right) elections by polling area.
DR did a cool election map of the Region Østdanmark election, showing the approximate place of residence of each elected councilor. Shows how having an at-large election in a single massive constituency does not mean you can't have a decent geographic representation of places.
November 20, 2025 at 9:04 PM
DR did a cool election map of the Region Østdanmark election, showing the approximate place of residence of each elected councilor. Shows how having an at-large election in a single massive constituency does not mean you can't have a decent geographic representation of places.
Here's the website I made with results/projections of the Danish municipal elections. I wasn't able to get it public last night since I was busy with other things, but check it out if you are interested in viewing the results and seat calculations.
politiskeprognoser.github.io/dkprojection/
politiskeprognoser.github.io/dkprojection/
Danish municipal election projection
politiskeprognoser.github.io
November 19, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Here's the website I made with results/projections of the Danish municipal elections. I wasn't able to get it public last night since I was busy with other things, but check it out if you are interested in viewing the results and seat calculations.
politiskeprognoser.github.io/dkprojection/
politiskeprognoser.github.io/dkprojection/
In Middelfart Municipality, where it looked like the Social Democrats (A) would keep onto their mayor, one of their candidates has just defected to Venstre (V) the day after the municipal election. She is now aiming to become mayor for that party, having tipped the majority.
November 19, 2025 at 5:09 PM
In Middelfart Municipality, where it looked like the Social Democrats (A) would keep onto their mayor, one of their candidates has just defected to Venstre (V) the day after the municipal election. She is now aiming to become mayor for that party, having tipped the majority.
I have thought about how to summarize the Danish municipal elections, and the best way of putting it is this: It is a bloodbath for the Social Democrats. Declining in the national vote share and losing MANY mayors. The responsibility will ultimately fall onto Frederiksen.
November 19, 2025 at 6:00 AM
I have thought about how to summarize the Danish municipal elections, and the best way of putting it is this: It is a bloodbath for the Social Democrats. Declining in the national vote share and losing MANY mayors. The responsibility will ultimately fall onto Frederiksen.
Did a map showing the party winning the position of mayor in each Danish municipality. Darker colors indicate it's a flip. Result is to be determined for the ones colored in gray.
November 19, 2025 at 3:25 AM
Did a map showing the party winning the position of mayor in each Danish municipality. Darker colors indicate it's a flip. Result is to be determined for the ones colored in gray.
In the municipality of Copenhagen, in what is quite a notable development, all parties except the Social Democrats (A) and Independent Greens (Q) are negotiating.
November 19, 2025 at 2:02 AM
In the municipality of Copenhagen, in what is quite a notable development, all parties except the Social Democrats (A) and Independent Greens (Q) are negotiating.
In Copenhagen it seems that AFÅ will NOT get a majority of seats. 33.6% counted.
November 18, 2025 at 11:32 PM
In Copenhagen it seems that AFÅ will NOT get a majority of seats. 33.6% counted.
Maybe the most insane result in Køge Municipality. Wtf this is a crushing blow. There was a red bloc majority before today.
November 18, 2025 at 11:17 PM
Maybe the most insane result in Køge Municipality. Wtf this is a crushing blow. There was a red bloc majority before today.
This is a wild result and a bloodbath for the Social Democrats.
November 18, 2025 at 10:40 PM
This is a wild result and a bloodbath for the Social Democrats.
Here is an initial projection of the Copenhagen municipal election with 1 polling place and 1% of votes reported.
November 18, 2025 at 9:58 PM
Here is an initial projection of the Copenhagen municipal election with 1 polling place and 1% of votes reported.
Here's a projection of the municipal elections at the national level
November 18, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Here's a projection of the municipal elections at the national level
Turnout so far in the Danish municipal election:
9:00: 9.4%
10:00: 13.1%
11:00: 17.7%
Based on the 775 of 1314 polling places that have reported.
9:00: 9.4%
10:00: 13.1%
11:00: 17.7%
Based on the 775 of 1314 polling places that have reported.
November 18, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Turnout so far in the Danish municipal election:
9:00: 9.4%
10:00: 13.1%
11:00: 17.7%
Based on the 775 of 1314 polling places that have reported.
9:00: 9.4%
10:00: 13.1%
11:00: 17.7%
Based on the 775 of 1314 polling places that have reported.
Today Danish voters are voting across the entire country in the municipal and regional elections. It will be a quite consequential election that will set the tone for the parliamentary election coming up in 2026. Here is how it works and what to watch out for. 🧵
November 18, 2025 at 5:38 AM
Today Danish voters are voting across the entire country in the municipal and regional elections. It will be a quite consequential election that will set the tone for the parliamentary election coming up in 2026. Here is how it works and what to watch out for. 🧵