Gustavo Lacerda
@gusl.bsky.social
Berlin.
Statistician interested in Social Epistemology, Judgmental Forecasting, Bayesian Cogsci, Education. Lover of languages.
Statistician interested in Social Epistemology, Judgmental Forecasting, Bayesian Cogsci, Education. Lover of languages.
ImmoScout, please be considerate of your non-native speakers. "Bewerben" (apply) and "bewerten" (rate), and try to avoid requesting that apartment-seekers do the latter thing when they've barely had a chance to do the former.
May 27, 2025 at 11:38 AM
ImmoScout, please be considerate of your non-native speakers. "Bewerben" (apply) and "bewerten" (rate), and try to avoid requesting that apartment-seekers do the latter thing when they've barely had a chance to do the former.
United Healthcare, whose CEO was murdered in December, is being sued by shareholders for not warning them that the company would start following the law now, in a way that would impact their profits. #moloch
May 26, 2025 at 5:48 PM
United Healthcare, whose CEO was murdered in December, is being sued by shareholders for not warning them that the company would start following the law now, in a way that would impact their profits. #moloch
We may be about to live in a world where machines are more intelligent than everyone and are scheming to prevent themselves from being shut down (because this is useful towards whatever goals it has).
Today we see this happening sometimes. But they may soon be smart enough to hide it from us.
Today we see this happening sometimes. But they may soon be smart enough to hide it from us.
May 26, 2025 at 7:58 AM
We may be about to live in a world where machines are more intelligent than everyone and are scheming to prevent themselves from being shut down (because this is useful towards whatever goals it has).
Today we see this happening sometimes. But they may soon be smart enough to hide it from us.
Today we see this happening sometimes. But they may soon be smart enough to hide it from us.
Today I used ChatGPT's o3 to help me interpret a CT scan, and I'm convinced that it gave me better advice than the surgeon who saw me.
(1) It explained its reasoning in detail.
(2) Unlike the surgeon, it doesn't stand to profit from this.
(3) It agreed with my existing opinion.
(1) It explained its reasoning in detail.
(2) Unlike the surgeon, it doesn't stand to profit from this.
(3) It agreed with my existing opinion.
May 21, 2025 at 1:12 AM
Today I used ChatGPT's o3 to help me interpret a CT scan, and I'm convinced that it gave me better advice than the surgeon who saw me.
(1) It explained its reasoning in detail.
(2) Unlike the surgeon, it doesn't stand to profit from this.
(3) It agreed with my existing opinion.
(1) It explained its reasoning in detail.
(2) Unlike the surgeon, it doesn't stand to profit from this.
(3) It agreed with my existing opinion.
If I could choose to be born anywhere 100 years earlier, I might choose Austria-Hungary: tons of opportunities to be a language nerd.
OTOH they often had a paralyzed parliament over it, just like Belgium + it also fragmented their militaries. Hard problems. How did the Swiss always manage so well?
OTOH they often had a paralyzed parliament over it, just like Belgium + it also fragmented their militaries. Hard problems. How did the Swiss always manage so well?
May 14, 2025 at 8:24 AM
If I could choose to be born anywhere 100 years earlier, I might choose Austria-Hungary: tons of opportunities to be a language nerd.
OTOH they often had a paralyzed parliament over it, just like Belgium + it also fragmented their militaries. Hard problems. How did the Swiss always manage so well?
OTOH they often had a paralyzed parliament over it, just like Belgium + it also fragmented their militaries. Hard problems. How did the Swiss always manage so well?
For all the downsides of fake news, one bright side is that it might be getting easier to de-escalate wars, since leaders can save face without violent retaliation, by claiming victory regardless of the facts.
May 8, 2025 at 1:11 PM
For all the downsides of fake news, one bright side is that it might be getting easier to de-escalate wars, since leaders can save face without violent retaliation, by claiming victory regardless of the facts.
History sure rhymes. Insightful piece by Jules Evans. HT Oshan.
May 6, 2025 at 7:32 AM
History sure rhymes. Insightful piece by Jules Evans. HT Oshan.
I don't believe AIs can have first-person experience, and I dislike the fact that many people are starting to take this idea seriously (I'm on Team Save Human Civilization).
BUT... if you're going to philosophize about it anyway, please use the right words.
BUT... if you're going to philosophize about it anyway, please use the right words.
May 5, 2025 at 5:54 PM
I don't believe AIs can have first-person experience, and I dislike the fact that many people are starting to take this idea seriously (I'm on Team Save Human Civilization).
BUT... if you're going to philosophize about it anyway, please use the right words.
BUT... if you're going to philosophize about it anyway, please use the right words.
Psychotherapy hacks:
* Vigorous aerobic exercise shortly before therapy. Makes it easier to access feelings.
* Receiving gentle massage just after session. Makes it easier to go uncomfortable places, knowing that it won't stick.
* Trigger exposure while in breathwork-induced groundedness.
* Vigorous aerobic exercise shortly before therapy. Makes it easier to access feelings.
* Receiving gentle massage just after session. Makes it easier to go uncomfortable places, knowing that it won't stick.
* Trigger exposure while in breathwork-induced groundedness.
May 3, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Psychotherapy hacks:
* Vigorous aerobic exercise shortly before therapy. Makes it easier to access feelings.
* Receiving gentle massage just after session. Makes it easier to go uncomfortable places, knowing that it won't stick.
* Trigger exposure while in breathwork-induced groundedness.
* Vigorous aerobic exercise shortly before therapy. Makes it easier to access feelings.
* Receiving gentle massage just after session. Makes it easier to go uncomfortable places, knowing that it won't stick.
* Trigger exposure while in breathwork-induced groundedness.
Reposted by Gustavo Lacerda
I haven't read this yet (I just found out about vit from this post!), but we need more more hard conversations exactly like this.
I wrote a book about this, How to Talk to Your Son about Fascism -- the right-wing offers young men easy and evil answers to complex questions, and gives community. To fight it we need our own answers, and our own appealing communities.
www.routledge.com/How-to-Talk-...
www.routledge.com/How-to-Talk-...
May 2, 2025 at 8:32 PM
I haven't read this yet (I just found out about vit from this post!), but we need more more hard conversations exactly like this.
It looks like older generations of Americans really cared about privacy. How did people stop caring?
May 1, 2025 at 12:13 PM
It looks like older generations of Americans really cared about privacy. How did people stop caring?
www.theindex.media/elon-musk-is...
‹‹ Musk now operates in a gray zone between public servant and private billionaire, commanding government authority while maintaining his corporate empire.
‹‹ Musk now operates in a gray zone between public servant and private billionaire, commanding government authority while maintaining his corporate empire.
Elon Musk Is an Existential Threat to Big Tech
Elon Musk’s direct control over the federal payment infrastructure has elevated him from tech billionaire to existential threat, casting a shadow over every major player in Silicon Valley.
www.theindex.media
February 5, 2025 at 12:15 AM
www.theindex.media/elon-musk-is...
‹‹ Musk now operates in a gray zone between public servant and private billionaire, commanding government authority while maintaining his corporate empire.
‹‹ Musk now operates in a gray zone between public servant and private billionaire, commanding government authority while maintaining his corporate empire.
This week my total time in Germany passed the 1 year mark (over 3 stays). Berlin life is pretty sweet, except for some minor annoyances (and yes, I'm writing this in February). Ask me anything!
February 1, 2025 at 12:24 PM
This week my total time in Germany passed the 1 year mark (over 3 stays). Berlin life is pretty sweet, except for some minor annoyances (and yes, I'm writing this in February). Ask me anything!
Why is it so hard to get momentum on this platform?
January 14, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Why is it so hard to get momentum on this platform?
Today Google Drive decided to switch my language to German. I can't say I'm surprised, but I sure would like to understand why services do this without asking first.
December 11, 2024 at 4:24 PM
Today Google Drive decided to switch my language to German. I can't say I'm surprised, but I sure would like to understand why services do this without asking first.
Assad's control over Syria is likely ending before next year (40% chance it continues).
How do I know? Because Manifold told me so.
manifold.markets/SemioticRiva...
How do I know? Because Manifold told me so.
manifold.markets/SemioticRiva...
Will Assad government forces control the Syrian Presidential Palace in Damascus on January 1st, 2025?
38% chance. Resolves based on a consensus of credible media reporting as to whether government forces under the command of Bashar Al Assad control the presidential palace.. Contested control (i.e. act...
manifold.markets
December 7, 2024 at 9:18 AM
Assad's control over Syria is likely ending before next year (40% chance it continues).
How do I know? Because Manifold told me so.
manifold.markets/SemioticRiva...
How do I know? Because Manifold told me so.
manifold.markets/SemioticRiva...
TIL about Gelephu Mindfulness City in Bhutan.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g_t...
Fascinating initiative in Bhutan, the country known for tracking/prioritizing its GNH (Gross National Happiness), and whose king imposed democracy on his people, many of whom really didn't want that.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g_t...
Fascinating initiative in Bhutan, the country known for tracking/prioritizing its GNH (Gross National Happiness), and whose king imposed democracy on his people, many of whom really didn't want that.
December 3, 2024 at 11:05 AM
TIL about Gelephu Mindfulness City in Bhutan.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g_t...
Fascinating initiative in Bhutan, the country known for tracking/prioritizing its GNH (Gross National Happiness), and whose king imposed democracy on his people, many of whom really didn't want that.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g_t...
Fascinating initiative in Bhutan, the country known for tracking/prioritizing its GNH (Gross National Happiness), and whose king imposed democracy on his people, many of whom really didn't want that.
This May 10th I saw a bit of aurora near Asheville, but the most interesting thing were the "waterfalls" that seemed to flow down towards the Earth, which I wasn't able to capture with my camera.
TIL the waterfalls are named STEVE.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH7b...
TIL the waterfalls are named STEVE.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH7b...
December 2, 2024 at 3:24 PM
This May 10th I saw a bit of aurora near Asheville, but the most interesting thing were the "waterfalls" that seemed to flow down towards the Earth, which I wasn't able to capture with my camera.
TIL the waterfalls are named STEVE.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH7b...
TIL the waterfalls are named STEVE.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH7b...
If you had to go through 2020 again, where would you choose to live?
November 26, 2024 at 11:26 AM
If you had to go through 2020 again, where would you choose to live?
Having criminal immunity be dependent on holding office creates some terrible incentives. We are seeing this today in Israel.
November 25, 2024 at 8:12 PM
Having criminal immunity be dependent on holding office creates some terrible incentives. We are seeing this today in Israel.