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Central banks are taking victory laps for "defeating inflation" but what if they learn the wrong lessons from the last crisis?
My Big View for @breakingviews.reuters.com argues that using the post-Covid playbook in the future would do more harm than good.

www.breakingviews.com/features/us-...
US tariffs may lead ratesetters to fight wrong war
As Donald Trump returns to the White House, his trade policies could push prices up. Fed Chair Jay Powell and Europe’s Christine Lagarde may be tempted to respond with tactics they think helped lower ...
www.breakingviews.com
January 16, 2025 at 12:09 PM
This year was set to mark the end of the dollar's rally. It is not happening. In this column for @breakingviews.reuters.com, I argue that Trump's tariffs and tax cuts will keep the US currency stronger for longer. That's bad news for the rest of the world.

www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
US exceptionalism turns dollar into global problem
The greenback is up 15% against its peers in the past three years. The new administration’s plans for tariffs and tax cuts could make it even stronger than markets expect. Europe, Asia and the UK will...
www.breakingviews.com
January 16, 2025 at 12:07 PM
Reposted
The number of children in the world has stopped growing.
January 14, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Reposted
Check out @breakingviews.reuters.com's 2025 predictions here. (And they're free to read, how luckier can you get?) www.breakingviews.com/predictions/
Predictions 2025 — Altered States
Breakingviews’ Predictions 2025 explores what geopolitical risks, technological shifts and climate change will mean for markets, companies and government
www.breakingviews.com
January 9, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Talk about January blues. UK government bonds have started the year with a thud. Yields are soaring but, in this column for @breakingviews.reuters.com, I argue that this is not a "Liz Truss' moment". But it is a big problem for Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.
January 9, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Reposted
Andrew Bailey is stuck in the middle with u(nemployment). Unless the UK job market gets worse, the Bank of England governor will have to live with strong wage growth, elevated inflation and slow rate cuts, I argue in this column for @breakingviews.reuters.com.
www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
Labour and labour market point to slower BoE cuts
The Bank of England is set to leave rates on hold this week. The economy is weak but pay growth is strong, keeping inflation above 2%. The government’s plans will boost GDP and prices in 2025. Until u...
www.breakingviews.com
December 18, 2024 at 4:44 PM
Andrew Bailey is stuck in the middle with u(nemployment). Unless the UK job market gets worse, the Bank of England governor will have to live with strong wage growth, elevated inflation and slow rate cuts, I argue in this column for @breakingviews.reuters.com.
www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
Labour and labour market point to slower BoE cuts
The Bank of England is set to leave rates on hold this week. The economy is weak but pay growth is strong, keeping inflation above 2%. The government’s plans will boost GDP and prices in 2025. Until u...
www.breakingviews.com
December 18, 2024 at 4:44 PM
This week, the European Central Bank is likely to cut interest rates by just 25 basis points. In this column for @Reuters Breakingviews, I argue that's not enough given the dire state of the euro zone economy. www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
ECB’s rearview mirror ignores economic crash ahead
The European Central Bank is set to cut rates by just 25 basis points this week because GDP is growing at 0.4% - the quickest since 2022. But inflation is subdued and the outlook for consumers, busine...
www.breakingviews.com
December 10, 2024 at 11:42 AM
Reposted
Brad Setser on how China is taking over the global auto industry:
www.cfr.org/blog/will-ch...
Will China Take Over the Global Auto Industry?
China's electric vehicle capacity will soon match total Chinese domestic auto demand, and total Chinese auto production capacity is already over half of total global auto demand ...
www.cfr.org
December 9, 2024 at 8:54 AM
Reposted
Number three and four global advertising firms nearing a merger. Trump's not even taken office yet and the consolidation is already under way.
www.wsj.com/business/med...
Exclusive | Advertising Firms Omnicom and Interpublic Nearing Merger That Would Reshape Industry
A deal would create the world’s largest advertising company, with net revenue of more than $20 billion, topping WPP’s $15.1 billion.
www.wsj.com
December 8, 2024 at 6:57 PM
Reposted
TikTok still on track for a sale/ban in the US...
December 6, 2024 at 3:26 PM
Reposted
Follow our Breakingviews columnists on Bluesky -https://go.bsky.app/4G8pySK
November 27, 2024 at 1:36 PM