Gianluca Benigno

@gianlucabenigno.bsky.social

850 followers 160 following 48 posts

Professor of Economics at the University of Lausanne. Former Head of the International Studies Department at the NYFed and a tenured Professor at the LSE.
https://gianlucabenigno.substack.com/
https://sites.google.com/view/gianlucabenigno/home; .. more

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Economics 97%

Business 3%

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Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 13d

Understanding this monetary–fiscal nexus is key to grasping what “sustainability” really means

Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 13d

What truly matters is the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy. When a government issues debt in its own currency, and the central bank stands behind it, the constraints it faces are not those of a household or a firm.

Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 13d

This is an important post on debt sustainability.

We often treat debt as a purely fiscal issue, searching for magic numbers (38T, 45T) or debt-to-GDP ratios (90%, 120%) beyond which everything unravels. But that misses the bigger picture. #debt #US #fiscalpolicy

open.substack.com/pub/pierpa61...

Is U.S. Government Debt Unsustainable?

The $38 trillion U.S.

open.substack.com

Reposted by Gianluca Benigno

Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · 22d

In my column for Herald Insight Collection, I explore how swap lines could evolve into geopolitical instruments of strategy and power.
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...

#geopolitics #swap_lines #united_states #china | Herald Insight Collection(#HIC)

Professor Gianluca Benigno at the University of Lausanne took an in-depth look at global currency swaps, which have emerged as a key issue in #geopolitics. He offers the insight that the geopolitics o...

www.linkedin.com

Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · Sep 12

Hi, apologies for the delayed reply. Since June, perceptions of the labor market have shifted, and it now seems likely that we’ll see at least two rate cuts by the end of 2025, possibly three. The next SEP is out next week, so we’ll have a clearer view of the new median then.

Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · Jun 18

Committee Dynamics:

Potential split: There may be a growing divide between the voting members (12 FOMC) and the full committee (19 participants) about the pace and direction of policy.

Future decisions, especially from September on, are likely to hinge on the inflation outlook.

Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · Jun 18

Stagflation risks noted:

End of 2025-GDP growth (2025 median) drops from 1.7% to 1.4% (central tendency narrows from 1.5–1.9% to 1.2–1.5%)

End of 2025-PCE inflation (2025 median) rises from 2.7% to 3.0% (central tendency shifts from 2.6–2.9% to 2.9–3.4%)

Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · Jun 18

Quick Fed Update: 2025 rate cuts: The median projection still sees 2 rate cuts by end-2025.
Rising support for “no cuts”: In March 2025, 4 FOMC participants saw no cuts in 2025. In June, that number has increased to 7, showing increased caution within the committee on easing policy further.

Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · May 23

open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...

Japan April-25 CPI Inflation Report

Sticky core and goods inflation keep pressure on the BoJ’s cautious stance.

open.substack.com

Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · May 23

Japan Inflation (Apr): CPI steady at 3.6% YoY; core CPI up to 3.5%. Food eased, but rice +98.4% YoY. Goods—not services—drive inflation. BoJ likely to stay cautious amid external risks.

#Japan #CPI #BoJ #inflation #economy #Yen

Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · May 21

open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...

UK April-25 CPI Inflation Report

Headline CPI rose as regulated price increases took effect. More notably, there was a surprise uptick in services inflation, which climbed to 5.4%.

open.substack.com

Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · May 21

UK data: CPI rose to 3.5% YoY (vs. 3.3% expected), led by services inflation at 5.4% YoY, up from 4.7%. With wage growth sticky at 5.4% YoY, the current release might lead to a further cautious approach by the #BoE.
#UKinflation #CPI #wages #BoE #interestrates #monetarypolicy

Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · May 20

Decline in interest rates would mitigate the cash-flow channel (associated with higher mortgage payments) and support aggregate demand, but overall, it is hard to see how all this would lead to inflation in a low-growth context with lack of fiscal support

Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · May 20

Thanks for your comment, I agree that there are structural factors in explaining pressures in the rental market, but what is striking about the UK and also Canada is how rent inflation started rising as interest rates increased and now has recently declined in Canada as they cut interest rates more.

Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · May 20

From a monetary policy perspective, these factors suggest that more decisive easing by the Bank of England could be appropriate, with relatively limited side effects in the current context. #Inflation #Interestrates #MonetaryPolicy 3/3. open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...

The Flip Side of UK Monetary Policy

This note draws from remarks I delivered as part of the monetary policy outlook panel at the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference.

open.substack.com

Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · May 20

I made 3 key points: a)The role of rent inflation in accounting for UK inflation and its persistence b)The rapid and sizeable increase in the policy rate as a driver of UK inflation through higher rent c)The role of wage growth as demand support rather than just an input cost 2/3

Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · May 20

I presented "The Flip Side of UK Monetary Policy" last week at the BoE's Watchers Conference. The main message is that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is not mechanical, but depends on state-contingent and institutional country-specific factors. #BankofEngland 1/3

Gianluca Benigno @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social · May 13

No signs of tariffs-induced price increases yet for the U.S. economy.

open.substack.com/pub/gianluca...

US April-25 CPI Inflation Report

Disinflation continues, as tariff-driven inflation fears have yet to materialize. The current release suggests no change in the "wait and see" monetary policy approach.

open.substack.com

Reposted by Gianluca Benigno

Nathan Converse @nathanecon.bsky.social · Apr 19

Finally, in my own paper with @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social and @lucafornaro.bsky.social, we show that the Financial Resource Curse is not merely a theoretical possibility by presenting careful empirical evidence that it is a general phenomenon www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... 4/n

Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance

This paper describes the stylized facts characterizing periods of exceptionally large capital inflows in a sample of 70 middle- and high-income countr…

www.sciencedirect.com

Reposted by Gianluca Benigno

Nathan Converse @nathanecon.bsky.social · Apr 19

In an AER paper w Martin Wolf (of U.St.Gallen) @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social and @lucafornaro.bsky.social show that the Financial Resource Curse has even larger negative implications when flows go to the world technological leader, I.e. the US (ungated here: www.newyorkfed.org/research/sta...) 3/n

The Global Financial Resource Curse - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

www.newyorkfed.org

Reposted by Gianluca Benigno

Nathan Converse @nathanecon.bsky.social · Apr 19

I like that Brunnermeier and Merkel at least nod (without citation for some reason) at @gianlucabenigno.bsky.social and @lucafornaro.bsky.social ‘s work on the Financial Resource Curse (e.g crei.cat/wp-content/u...) 3/n

crei.cat

Reposted by Gianluca Benigno

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