Gerard Brady
@gerardbrady100.bsky.social
Head of National Policy and Chief Economist at Ibec. Member of the National Economic and Social Council. Longford exile. Views my own.
Just finished an Ibec webinar with over 750 members. In our new analysis deck, link below, we have tried to answer as much as we can, given what we know, on the scale and shape of the economic impact for Ireland. Podcast later for the audible learners.
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
April 3, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Just finished an Ibec webinar with over 750 members. In our new analysis deck, link below, we have tried to answer as much as we can, given what we know, on the scale and shape of the economic impact for Ireland. Podcast later for the audible learners.
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
Happy 'Liberation Day' to all who celebrate. May your supply chains be disrupted, your capacity underutilised, your consumer confidence sapped, and may all your investment decisions be stalled by uncertainty.
April 2, 2025 at 7:29 AM
Happy 'Liberation Day' to all who celebrate. May your supply chains be disrupted, your capacity underutilised, your consumer confidence sapped, and may all your investment decisions be stalled by uncertainty.
There has been a lot of shite talked about moment x or y being 'Europe's defining moment' in the last fifteen years. This feels quite different to me.
March 1, 2025 at 10:02 AM
There has been a lot of shite talked about moment x or y being 'Europe's defining moment' in the last fifteen years. This feels quite different to me.
I've some words in this piece on Trump's exec order, which targets foreign companies with punitive US tax, if their HQ jurisdiction is 'unfairly' taxing US MNEs.
Agree with quotes from Pascal Saint Amans on the neatest route to de-escalation. EU should take it.
www.businesspost.ie/politics/ana...
Agree with quotes from Pascal Saint Amans on the neatest route to de-escalation. EU should take it.
www.businesspost.ie/politics/ana...
Analysis: EU is gearing up to fight Trump on tax, but Ireland needs a deal
The EU is adamant it is sticking to a global corporate tax deal even though the US has threatened a tax war if it does. So what now?
www.businesspost.ie
February 9, 2025 at 12:16 PM
I've some words in this piece on Trump's exec order, which targets foreign companies with punitive US tax, if their HQ jurisdiction is 'unfairly' taxing US MNEs.
Agree with quotes from Pascal Saint Amans on the neatest route to de-escalation. EU should take it.
www.businesspost.ie/politics/ana...
Agree with quotes from Pascal Saint Amans on the neatest route to de-escalation. EU should take it.
www.businesspost.ie/politics/ana...
This is a really interesting post on quantity versus price targeting on an externality.
More generally, a must-read blog on European policy.
www.siliconcontinent.com/p/target-pri...
More generally, a must-read blog on European policy.
www.siliconcontinent.com/p/target-pri...
Target price, not quantity
A warning from Europe's best-governed country
www.siliconcontinent.com
February 8, 2025 at 7:42 PM
This is a really interesting post on quantity versus price targeting on an externality.
More generally, a must-read blog on European policy.
www.siliconcontinent.com/p/target-pri...
More generally, a must-read blog on European policy.
www.siliconcontinent.com/p/target-pri...
Talking to a lot of companies about the current macro environment. Two common themes - "looking through" short-run noise where possible and stalling bigger decisions where uncertainty is high.
The option value of doing nothing is proportional to 'noise'. Uncertainty is an investment killer
The option value of doing nothing is proportional to 'noise'. Uncertainty is an investment killer
February 8, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Talking to a lot of companies about the current macro environment. Two common themes - "looking through" short-run noise where possible and stalling bigger decisions where uncertainty is high.
The option value of doing nothing is proportional to 'noise'. Uncertainty is an investment killer
The option value of doing nothing is proportional to 'noise'. Uncertainty is an investment killer
If you're bored waiting for the Government to be formed, here's a handy chart from yesterday's Ibec Economic Outlook on the impact of tariffs on Ireland/Europe under various scenarios of dollar appreciation.
Can be framed or hung directly as a poster.
Can be framed or hung directly as a poster.
January 23, 2025 at 11:37 AM
If you're bored waiting for the Government to be formed, here's a handy chart from yesterday's Ibec Economic Outlook on the impact of tariffs on Ireland/Europe under various scenarios of dollar appreciation.
Can be framed or hung directly as a poster.
Can be framed or hung directly as a poster.
A piece on employment growth in Ireland by sector. I've divided the years into periods based on vibes.
Despite the drop during Covid, employment growth in recent years has been the strongest it has ever been. But importantly it has been driven by higher productivity sectors.
Despite the drop during Covid, employment growth in recent years has been the strongest it has ever been. But importantly it has been driven by higher productivity sectors.
January 23, 2025 at 11:36 AM
A piece on employment growth in Ireland by sector. I've divided the years into periods based on vibes.
Despite the drop during Covid, employment growth in recent years has been the strongest it has ever been. But importantly it has been driven by higher productivity sectors.
Despite the drop during Covid, employment growth in recent years has been the strongest it has ever been. But importantly it has been driven by higher productivity sectors.
The phrase 'Multi hazard weather event' is a crime against clarity.
January 4, 2025 at 4:29 PM
The phrase 'Multi hazard weather event' is a crime against clarity.
My wrap of 2024 in the IT. Many challenges ahead, but end on a positive. By Dec 2025, employment will be +500,000 in five years.
“we have the financial resources and skills necessary to unlock our economic potential... for the first time in the State’s history.”
www.irishtimes.com/business/202...
“we have the financial resources and skills necessary to unlock our economic potential... for the first time in the State’s history.”
www.irishtimes.com/business/202...
Employment in Republic to be 500,000 up on pre-pandemic level by end 2025, predicts Ibec
Group’s chief economist Ger Brady says State’s exceptionallystrong performance had led to capacity constraints in a range of sectors
www.irishtimes.com
December 24, 2024 at 8:01 AM
My wrap of 2024 in the IT. Many challenges ahead, but end on a positive. By Dec 2025, employment will be +500,000 in five years.
“we have the financial resources and skills necessary to unlock our economic potential... for the first time in the State’s history.”
www.irishtimes.com/business/202...
“we have the financial resources and skills necessary to unlock our economic potential... for the first time in the State’s history.”
www.irishtimes.com/business/202...
A piece in the IT from Ibec CEO Danny McCoy.
"Smaller nations such as Ireland must now take greater responsibility in addressing Europe’s challenges. Europe cannot let the politics of other blocs distract from resolving the structural issues hindering its own growth and living standards."
"Smaller nations such as Ireland must now take greater responsibility in addressing Europe’s challenges. Europe cannot let the politics of other blocs distract from resolving the structural issues hindering its own growth and living standards."
Opinion: Time for Europe and Ireland to get their own houses in order
Ireland has the financial resources and skills necessary to unlock our economic potential, arguably for the first time in the State’s history
www.irishtimes.com
December 9, 2024 at 7:33 AM
A piece in the IT from Ibec CEO Danny McCoy.
"Smaller nations such as Ireland must now take greater responsibility in addressing Europe’s challenges. Europe cannot let the politics of other blocs distract from resolving the structural issues hindering its own growth and living standards."
"Smaller nations such as Ireland must now take greater responsibility in addressing Europe’s challenges. Europe cannot let the politics of other blocs distract from resolving the structural issues hindering its own growth and living standards."
It was great to be on BBC Radio Ulster yesterday evening to talk about elections, housing, infrastructure and Ireland's place in an uncertain world with Richard Morgan and @orla-hegarty.bsky.social.
From about 40 minutes here.
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
From about 40 minutes here.
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
Evening Extra - 02/12/2024 - BBC Sounds
The day’s top stories with Richard Morgan, Tara Mills and Declan Harvey.
www.bbc.co.uk
December 3, 2024 at 10:05 AM
It was great to be on BBC Radio Ulster yesterday evening to talk about elections, housing, infrastructure and Ireland's place in an uncertain world with Richard Morgan and @orla-hegarty.bsky.social.
From about 40 minutes here.
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
From about 40 minutes here.
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
Just to recognise before the polls, the effort and time candidates put in on behalf of their communities. And the importance of the representativness and transparency of our electoral system. Both are important at a time when there is sometimes growing alienation or mistrust globally.
November 28, 2024 at 9:18 PM
Just to recognise before the polls, the effort and time candidates put in on behalf of their communities. And the importance of the representativness and transparency of our electoral system. Both are important at a time when there is sometimes growing alienation or mistrust globally.
The main thing to remember now about the impact of this section of the debate is that all the normal people have gone to bed #leadersdebate #rtept
November 26, 2024 at 10:57 PM
The main thing to remember now about the impact of this section of the debate is that all the normal people have gone to bed #leadersdebate #rtept
As a private voter, my three key issues for the election are:
1. Public transport,
2. Care/disabilities, and
3. This one bit of my walk to the village where the footpath disappears for about 20 metres and you either have to cross the road and then cross back again, or take your chances.
1. Public transport,
2. Care/disabilities, and
3. This one bit of my walk to the village where the footpath disappears for about 20 metres and you either have to cross the road and then cross back again, or take your chances.
November 26, 2024 at 8:23 PM
As a private voter, my three key issues for the election are:
1. Public transport,
2. Care/disabilities, and
3. This one bit of my walk to the village where the footpath disappears for about 20 metres and you either have to cross the road and then cross back again, or take your chances.
1. Public transport,
2. Care/disabilities, and
3. This one bit of my walk to the village where the footpath disappears for about 20 metres and you either have to cross the road and then cross back again, or take your chances.
On the economy, the thing I'd most like to hear in the @news.rte.ie debate is what the parties *won't* do if the corporate tax take slows.
And their plans for issues, like infrastructure capacity & energy costs, which are already impacting investment in sectors that deliver those resources.
And their plans for issues, like infrastructure capacity & energy costs, which are already impacting investment in sectors that deliver those resources.
November 26, 2024 at 7:56 PM
On the economy, the thing I'd most like to hear in the @news.rte.ie debate is what the parties *won't* do if the corporate tax take slows.
And their plans for issues, like infrastructure capacity & energy costs, which are already impacting investment in sectors that deliver those resources.
And their plans for issues, like infrastructure capacity & energy costs, which are already impacting investment in sectors that deliver those resources.
Worth checking out this useful analysis, breaking down the key General Election manifesto commitments by the political parties, aligned with key Ibec policy pillars for business and industrial development.
Link to the full thing here:
cdn.ibec.ie/-/media/docu...
Link to the full thing here:
cdn.ibec.ie/-/media/docu...
November 25, 2024 at 5:55 PM
Worth checking out this useful analysis, breaking down the key General Election manifesto commitments by the political parties, aligned with key Ibec policy pillars for business and industrial development.
Link to the full thing here:
cdn.ibec.ie/-/media/docu...
Link to the full thing here:
cdn.ibec.ie/-/media/docu...
I have some quotes in today's Sindo. Europe and Ireland's most immediate economic challenges are entirely home-grown - as outlined in Draghi and elsewhere.
“The erosion of our competitiveness is, more than anything, driven by investor concerns about the ability to complete projects here.”
“The erosion of our competitiveness is, more than anything, driven by investor concerns about the ability to complete projects here.”
Donald Trump's trade threat casts dark shadow over election giveaways
?Future trade tensions between the European Union and the United States are the biggest economic threat facing the next Irish government, economists have warned.
www.independent.ie
November 24, 2024 at 10:27 AM
I have some quotes in today's Sindo. Europe and Ireland's most immediate economic challenges are entirely home-grown - as outlined in Draghi and elsewhere.
“The erosion of our competitiveness is, more than anything, driven by investor concerns about the ability to complete projects here.”
“The erosion of our competitiveness is, more than anything, driven by investor concerns about the ability to complete projects here.”
Gerry Howlin's read on the manifestos.
"The issue is not any specific measure. It is that a volatile future is left in hock to an ever-narrower tax base, dependent on fewer sources of income, for a declining percentage of workers supporting an ever-older society."
"The issue is not any specific measure. It is that a volatile future is left in hock to an ever-narrower tax base, dependent on fewer sources of income, for a declining percentage of workers supporting an ever-older society."
Gerard Howlin: The false election promises being made to Ireland’s under-40s
Forget ‘one for everyone in the audience’, there’s two for everyone in the audience. Unless what you want is choice
www.irishtimes.com
November 22, 2024 at 9:26 AM
Gerry Howlin's read on the manifestos.
"The issue is not any specific measure. It is that a volatile future is left in hock to an ever-narrower tax base, dependent on fewer sources of income, for a declining percentage of workers supporting an ever-older society."
"The issue is not any specific measure. It is that a volatile future is left in hock to an ever-narrower tax base, dependent on fewer sources of income, for a declining percentage of workers supporting an ever-older society."
Agree with this piece. Trump policies, if implemented, don't necessarily have a big impact on adoption of tech. But spell higher interest rates, which impacts electrification. Renewables are capital intensive and the levelised cost of energy is highly sensitive to rates.
November 21, 2024 at 3:25 PM
Agree with this piece. Trump policies, if implemented, don't necessarily have a big impact on adoption of tech. But spell higher interest rates, which impacts electrification. Renewables are capital intensive and the levelised cost of energy is highly sensitive to rates.
No rush. Nothing else going on in the world.
Brussels is waiting with bated breath: Will the 26 commissioner nominees move forward untouched? Or will political groups in the European Parliament stand firm and delay the Commission start date to 2025?
We’ve mapped out all the hypotheticals 👇
trib.al/Q9jsalX
We’ve mapped out all the hypotheticals 👇
trib.al/Q9jsalX
November 20, 2024 at 8:52 AM
No rush. Nothing else going on in the world.
When you know this thing is really taking off is when you get the corporate brand customer service accounts transferring over.
November 19, 2024 at 10:23 PM
When you know this thing is really taking off is when you get the corporate brand customer service accounts transferring over.
I'm thinking about taking up smoking because of this debate #RTEUpfront
November 18, 2024 at 11:11 PM
I'm thinking about taking up smoking because of this debate #RTEUpfront
Best of luck to the RTE staff who are in charge of studio design for this exercise in vigorous multi-party democracy.
Podium positions confirmed for tonight’s RTÉ Upfront #GE24 leaders’ debate
1️⃣ Joan Collins
2️⃣ Cian O’Callaghan
3️⃣ Michael Collins
4️⃣ Micheál Martin
5️⃣ Simon Harris
6️⃣ Roderic O’Gorman
7️⃣ Peadar Toibín
8️⃣ Ivana Bacik
9️⃣ Richard Boyd Barrett
🔟 Mary Lou McDonald
1️⃣ Joan Collins
2️⃣ Cian O’Callaghan
3️⃣ Michael Collins
4️⃣ Micheál Martin
5️⃣ Simon Harris
6️⃣ Roderic O’Gorman
7️⃣ Peadar Toibín
8️⃣ Ivana Bacik
9️⃣ Richard Boyd Barrett
🔟 Mary Lou McDonald
November 18, 2024 at 6:04 PM
Best of luck to the RTE staff who are in charge of studio design for this exercise in vigorous multi-party democracy.
The idea of these starter packs is a great one. No notes.
November 16, 2024 at 8:20 PM
The idea of these starter packs is a great one. No notes.