Geofutures
@geofutures.bsky.social
Foresight in geopolitics and social issues, with an eye on science fiction
Iran was the world's leading killer of civilians in January, it appears -- www.economist.com/middle-east-...
The violence in Iran could lead to civil war
As America masses an armada, the regime’s response to recent protests is radicalising Iranians
www.economist.com
February 2, 2026 at 10:46 PM
Iran was the world's leading killer of civilians in January, it appears -- www.economist.com/middle-east-...
The US democratic decline "during Trump’s second term stands out as the most rapid in contemporary history. It outpaces the early stages of backsliding under Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán" www.ft.com/content/b474...
How steep is Trump’s democratic backsliding?
The erosion of established norms has been dramatic but institutions are holding up
www.ft.com
February 2, 2026 at 9:52 PM
The US democratic decline "during Trump’s second term stands out as the most rapid in contemporary history. It outpaces the early stages of backsliding under Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán" www.ft.com/content/b474...
Futurist at the movies microreview: "M". If you watch this North Macedonian film -- also called "Beyond the Wasteland" -- you will have watched 50% of all North Macedonian science fiction movies, it appears.
February 2, 2026 at 3:26 PM
Futurist at the movies microreview: "M". If you watch this North Macedonian film -- also called "Beyond the Wasteland" -- you will have watched 50% of all North Macedonian science fiction movies, it appears.
"China does not seek global hegemony but rather what I call global preeminence: a position as a sort of “first among equals”" foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/21/c...
How Far Do China’s Ambitions Reach?
The answer is global—and has big implications for U.S. policy.
foreignpolicy.com
January 29, 2026 at 8:50 PM
"China does not seek global hegemony but rather what I call global preeminence: a position as a sort of “first among equals”" foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/21/c...
"The good news is that these developments make Chinese military adventurism less likely, including an invasion of Taiwan." foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/27/c...
New Military Purge Rocks the CCP
The targeting of two top generals bodes poorly for China’s military readiness.
foreignpolicy.com
January 29, 2026 at 7:04 PM
"The good news is that these developments make Chinese military adventurism less likely, including an invasion of Taiwan." foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/27/c...
Anthropic CEO "lands on the uncomfortable thesis that the AI prize is so glittering (and its strategic value is so obvious) that nobody inside the race can be trusted to slow it down, even if the risks are enormous." qz.com/anthropic-da...
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's warning from inside the AI boom
Dario Amodei warns that the AI prize is too glittering to restrain — even as his lab races to sell the tech he thinks might break society
qz.com
January 28, 2026 at 4:46 PM
Anthropic CEO "lands on the uncomfortable thesis that the AI prize is so glittering (and its strategic value is so obvious) that nobody inside the race can be trusted to slow it down, even if the risks are enormous." qz.com/anthropic-da...
The new Global Risks Report from WEF -- trade wars and actual wars top the list. www.weforum.org/publications...
The Global Risks Report 2026
The Global Risks Report 2026 analyses global risks through three timeframes to support decision-makers in balancing current crises and longer-term priorities.
www.weforum.org
January 27, 2026 at 7:10 PM
The new Global Risks Report from WEF -- trade wars and actual wars top the list. www.weforum.org/publications...
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Crack in the World," a 1965 disaster movie.
January 26, 2026 at 3:29 PM
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Crack in the World," a 1965 disaster movie.
4% of Americans read 46% of all books read in the US -- today.yougov.com/entertainmen...
January 23, 2026 at 8:00 PM
4% of Americans read 46% of all books read in the US -- today.yougov.com/entertainmen...
What was supposed to be happening in 2026, according to science fiction -- guides.justwatch.com/us/2026-pred...
January 23, 2026 at 6:01 PM
What was supposed to be happening in 2026, according to science fiction -- guides.justwatch.com/us/2026-pred...
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Plan 75." I judge this subtle Japanese film as the second-best futurist movie of 2022.
January 23, 2026 at 5:50 PM
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Plan 75." I judge this subtle Japanese film as the second-best futurist movie of 2022.
Greenland -- "The real explanation may be a desire for territorial expansion that has little to do with U.S. geostrategy." www.crisisgroup.org/qna/europe-c...
Waiting at Davos: U.S. Allies Wrestle with Trump’s Threats to Greenland | International Crisis Group
U.S. President Donald Trump is heading to the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he will engage with allies about his expansionist designs on Greenland. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts look at the...
www.crisisgroup.org
January 23, 2026 at 4:53 PM
Greenland -- "The real explanation may be a desire for territorial expansion that has little to do with U.S. geostrategy." www.crisisgroup.org/qna/europe-c...
Futurist at the movies microreview: "The Fifth Wave," which came out 10 years ago today. Aliens attack Earth with a thorough but rather baroque plan.
January 22, 2026 at 7:42 PM
Futurist at the movies microreview: "The Fifth Wave," which came out 10 years ago today. Aliens attack Earth with a thorough but rather baroque plan.
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Agent Revelation," which came out 5 years ago. This is a not a good movie, and someone has obviously gamed the ratings on Rotten Tomatoes.
January 22, 2026 at 3:53 PM
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Agent Revelation," which came out 5 years ago. This is a not a good movie, and someone has obviously gamed the ratings on Rotten Tomatoes.
Greenland: The likelihood of this primary scenario has now gone down. Many of the individual events could still happen, or already are.
January 22, 2026 at 3:00 PM
Greenland: The likelihood of this primary scenario has now gone down. Many of the individual events could still happen, or already are.
6 scenarios for the future of Iran, in Foreign Affairs, with varying degrees of authoritarianism and nationalist / conservative ideology. archive.is/hy2PB#select...
archive.is
January 21, 2026 at 2:42 PM
6 scenarios for the future of Iran, in Foreign Affairs, with varying degrees of authoritarianism and nationalist / conservative ideology. archive.is/hy2PB#select...
"We may be about to find out that it is not possible to run the most advanced civilisation in the history of the planet with the intellectual apparatus of a pre-literate society." jmarriott.substack.com/p/the-dawn-o...
The dawn of the post-literate society
And the end of civilisation
jmarriott.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 3:00 PM
"We may be about to find out that it is not possible to run the most advanced civilisation in the history of the planet with the intellectual apparatus of a pre-literate society." jmarriott.substack.com/p/the-dawn-o...
First Greenlandic flag seen in my neighborhood.
January 19, 2026 at 4:18 PM
First Greenlandic flag seen in my neighborhood.
Greenland: Reducing affordability via tariffs for an unattainable goal that most Americans are against seems like a sound and sustainable policy. www.nbcnews.com/business/eco...
Trump announces 10% tariff on eight European countries until there is a deal to buy Greenland
Trump said the new 10% duties would increase to 25% on June 1, unless a deal is reached.
www.nbcnews.com
January 17, 2026 at 5:38 PM
Greenland: Reducing affordability via tariffs for an unattainable goal that most Americans are against seems like a sound and sustainable policy. www.nbcnews.com/business/eco...
Futurist at the movies: "28 Years Later: The Bone Temple" is out today. Given its companion film -- microreview below -- it seems promising.
January 16, 2026 at 6:54 PM
Futurist at the movies: "28 Years Later: The Bone Temple" is out today. Given its companion film -- microreview below -- it seems promising.
"The [N. Ireland] Troubles’ 'manageability' is cold comfort. Over 3,500 people in a population of about 1.6 million still died. Extrapolating crudely, an American version would claim about 720,000 dead — more than the Civil War." www.politico.com/news/magazin...
15 Scenarios That Could Stun the World in 2026
Futurists, political analysts and other forecasters on the possible “Black Swan” events of the new year.
www.politico.com
January 16, 2026 at 4:29 PM
"The [N. Ireland] Troubles’ 'manageability' is cold comfort. Over 3,500 people in a population of about 1.6 million still died. Extrapolating crudely, an American version would claim about 720,000 dead — more than the Civil War." www.politico.com/news/magazin...
After adjustments based on the next census, "the Democratic presidential nominee could win all states won by Kamala Harris, plus the Blue Wall of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and still fall short of 270 electoral votes." www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/o...
Opinion | Democrats Will Lose in 2028 Unless They Change Course Now
www.nytimes.com
January 16, 2026 at 2:49 PM
After adjustments based on the next census, "the Democratic presidential nominee could win all states won by Kamala Harris, plus the Blue Wall of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and still fall short of 270 electoral votes." www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/o...
Bremmer: the current law-of-the-jungle Trump policy is helping China, often failing, and will be undone when there is a post-Trump president -- foreignpolicy.com/live/marking...
Marking One Year of Trump 2.0
On Jan. 20, Donald Trump will mark one full year of his second U.S. presidency. Knowing what we now know, how do we define a Trump doctrine? How are world leaders adapting to his more unfettered appro...
foreignpolicy.com
January 15, 2026 at 7:16 PM
Bremmer: the current law-of-the-jungle Trump policy is helping China, often failing, and will be undone when there is a post-Trump president -- foreignpolicy.com/live/marking...
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Outside the Wire," which came out 5 years ago today. It features Ukraine in the wake of a future war.
January 15, 2026 at 6:06 PM
Futurist at the movies microreview: "Outside the Wire," which came out 5 years ago today. It features Ukraine in the wake of a future war.
An initial futures wheel for potential outcomes of a US seizure of Greenland.
January 15, 2026 at 3:20 PM
An initial futures wheel for potential outcomes of a US seizure of Greenland.