Giles
@gdeejay.bsky.social
Applied economist working in international development policy
🇹🇴🇸🇧🇻🇺🇫🇯🇦🇺🇲🇲 (etc),
Mostly memes.
Sometimes post about #publicpolicy, research, data science, #PFM and #Rstats
Economist | Independent Consultant
All views my own
🇹🇴🇸🇧🇻🇺🇫🇯🇦🇺🇲🇲 (etc),
Mostly memes.
Sometimes post about #publicpolicy, research, data science, #PFM and #Rstats
Economist | Independent Consultant
All views my own
Pinned
Giles
@gdeejay.bsky.social
· Oct 29
an_intro_to_r_for_policy_analysis
policyanalysislab.com
Dear #rstats,
Please find attached the alpha version of my book "An Introduction to R for Policy Analysis":
policyanalysislab.com/shared/r-for...
Unfortunately, the draft has been released too late to be considered for a Nobel prize, but I look forward to being nominated in 2026.
...
Please find attached the alpha version of my book "An Introduction to R for Policy Analysis":
policyanalysislab.com/shared/r-for...
Unfortunately, the draft has been released too late to be considered for a Nobel prize, but I look forward to being nominated in 2026.
...
For some reason I decided to enroll in an introduction to Philosophy course:
February 10, 2026 at 4:46 AM
For some reason I decided to enroll in an introduction to Philosophy course:
I was looking at setting up OpenClaw #AI on the weekend, but then I realized I don't have any use cases that can't be solved with Claude code already.
Does anyone have examples of how they've been able to use it effectively?
Does anyone have examples of how they've been able to use it effectively?
February 10, 2026 at 1:54 AM
I was looking at setting up OpenClaw #AI on the weekend, but then I realized I don't have any use cases that can't be solved with Claude code already.
Does anyone have examples of how they've been able to use it effectively?
Does anyone have examples of how they've been able to use it effectively?
I just finished reading* The Journal of a Disappointed Man by W. N. P. Barbellion.
⭐⭐⭐⭐
(Out of five)
This is an unusual book. It's essentially the author's journal from the age of 12 until his untimely death.
This is a sad story, but
...
⭐⭐⭐⭐
(Out of five)
This is an unusual book. It's essentially the author's journal from the age of 12 until his untimely death.
This is a sad story, but
...
February 10, 2026 at 12:13 AM
I just finished reading* The Journal of a Disappointed Man by W. N. P. Barbellion.
⭐⭐⭐⭐
(Out of five)
This is an unusual book. It's essentially the author's journal from the age of 12 until his untimely death.
This is a sad story, but
...
⭐⭐⭐⭐
(Out of five)
This is an unusual book. It's essentially the author's journal from the age of 12 until his untimely death.
This is a sad story, but
...
I'm still reading 'Black Swan's but I think I'm going to drop it.
He makes some interesting points, but it needs a solid edit to weed out the superfluous detail that doesn't contribute to the core thesis:
Extreme events are more likely and important than we think / our systems don't reflect his.
He makes some interesting points, but it needs a solid edit to weed out the superfluous detail that doesn't contribute to the core thesis:
Extreme events are more likely and important than we think / our systems don't reflect his.
I'm currently reading a book by Taleb.
I find him easy to read and like his ideas, but I sure wish he didn't feel the need to take pot shots at everybody throughout.
🤔
I find him easy to read and like his ideas, but I sure wish he didn't feel the need to take pot shots at everybody throughout.
🤔
February 7, 2026 at 4:21 AM
I'm still reading 'Black Swan's but I think I'm going to drop it.
He makes some interesting points, but it needs a solid edit to weed out the superfluous detail that doesn't contribute to the core thesis:
Extreme events are more likely and important than we think / our systems don't reflect his.
He makes some interesting points, but it needs a solid edit to weed out the superfluous detail that doesn't contribute to the core thesis:
Extreme events are more likely and important than we think / our systems don't reflect his.
I'm currently doing a course on self-determination theory.
It feels like something first year economics students would benefit from being exposed to as there is a lot of interesting experimental research around incentives and motivation.
It feels like something first year economics students would benefit from being exposed to as there is a lot of interesting experimental research around incentives and motivation.
February 7, 2026 at 1:42 AM
I'm currently doing a course on self-determination theory.
It feels like something first year economics students would benefit from being exposed to as there is a lot of interesting experimental research around incentives and motivation.
It feels like something first year economics students would benefit from being exposed to as there is a lot of interesting experimental research around incentives and motivation.
Reposted by Giles
With the federal budget approaching and speculation again mounting over capital gains tax reform, there's been some discussion about returning to the pre-99 'inflation indexation' approach to taxing capital gains. Here's a quick explainer on how that would work.
February 6, 2026 at 6:01 AM
With the federal budget approaching and speculation again mounting over capital gains tax reform, there's been some discussion about returning to the pre-99 'inflation indexation' approach to taxing capital gains. Here's a quick explainer on how that would work.
Who would have guessed that I'm at a beach again?!
February 4, 2026 at 11:03 PM
Who would have guessed that I'm at a beach again?!
Ha!
Someone from marketing has seen my post.
There are now *two* brands of eggs with the farmer looking lovingly at the chicken.
Check and mate.
🧐
Someone from marketing has seen my post.
There are now *two* brands of eggs with the farmer looking lovingly at the chicken.
Check and mate.
🧐
February 4, 2026 at 7:18 AM
Ha!
Someone from marketing has seen my post.
There are now *two* brands of eggs with the farmer looking lovingly at the chicken.
Check and mate.
🧐
Someone from marketing has seen my post.
There are now *two* brands of eggs with the farmer looking lovingly at the chicken.
Check and mate.
🧐
I miss when the world was run by these guys:
February 3, 2026 at 5:42 AM
I miss when the world was run by these guys:
Finished.
Super fun game.
In fact, I think it's better than It Takes Two.
👌🏼
Super fun game.
In fact, I think it's better than It Takes Two.
👌🏼
Currently playing Split Fiction with my wife and it's just 👌🏼
I wish there were more two player co-op games like this and 'It Takes Two'
I wish there were more two player co-op games like this and 'It Takes Two'
February 1, 2026 at 4:57 AM
Finished.
Super fun game.
In fact, I think it's better than It Takes Two.
👌🏼
Super fun game.
In fact, I think it's better than It Takes Two.
👌🏼
Reposted by Giles
I'm currently reading a book by Taleb.
I find him easy to read and like his ideas, but I sure wish he didn't feel the need to take pot shots at everybody throughout.
🤔
I find him easy to read and like his ideas, but I sure wish he didn't feel the need to take pot shots at everybody throughout.
🤔
February 1, 2026 at 2:25 AM
I'm currently reading a book by Taleb.
I find him easy to read and like his ideas, but I sure wish he didn't feel the need to take pot shots at everybody throughout.
🤔
I find him easy to read and like his ideas, but I sure wish he didn't feel the need to take pot shots at everybody throughout.
🤔
I'm currently reading a book by Taleb.
I find him easy to read and like his ideas, but I wish he didn't take pot shots at everybody throughout.
🤔
I find him easy to read and like his ideas, but I wish he didn't take pot shots at everybody throughout.
🤔
February 1, 2026 at 2:19 AM
I'm currently reading a book by Taleb.
I find him easy to read and like his ideas, but I wish he didn't take pot shots at everybody throughout.
🤔
I find him easy to read and like his ideas, but I wish he didn't take pot shots at everybody throughout.
🤔
Done.
⭐⭐⭐⭐
(3.5 out of five)
Great book. Great story.
I'd have rated it higher, but I found it too verbose / wordy at times.
But, I can definitely see why it's rated so highly. It's a great Aussie book.
As Bojack Horseman might say: "It's a beach read you can thumb through in a wing chair!"
⭐⭐⭐⭐
(3.5 out of five)
Great book. Great story.
I'd have rated it higher, but I found it too verbose / wordy at times.
But, I can definitely see why it's rated so highly. It's a great Aussie book.
As Bojack Horseman might say: "It's a beach read you can thumb through in a wing chair!"
I'll likely stop posting these as I get busier *and* to avoid flooding everybody's feed with garbage...
... But, my next book is 'Boy Swallows Universe' by Trent Dalton.
(Funnily enough, I picked it up for $2 at a bookstore.)
... But, my next book is 'Boy Swallows Universe' by Trent Dalton.
(Funnily enough, I picked it up for $2 at a bookstore.)
January 31, 2026 at 6:44 AM
Done.
⭐⭐⭐⭐
(3.5 out of five)
Great book. Great story.
I'd have rated it higher, but I found it too verbose / wordy at times.
But, I can definitely see why it's rated so highly. It's a great Aussie book.
As Bojack Horseman might say: "It's a beach read you can thumb through in a wing chair!"
⭐⭐⭐⭐
(3.5 out of five)
Great book. Great story.
I'd have rated it higher, but I found it too verbose / wordy at times.
But, I can definitely see why it's rated so highly. It's a great Aussie book.
As Bojack Horseman might say: "It's a beach read you can thumb through in a wing chair!"
Interesting paper
(Nothing the small sample size)
"...We found that using #AI assistance led to a statistically significant decrease in mastery. On a quiz that covered concepts they’d used just a few minutes before, participants in the AI group scored 17% lower than those who coded by hand..."
(Nothing the small sample size)
"...We found that using #AI assistance led to a statistically significant decrease in mastery. On a quiz that covered concepts they’d used just a few minutes before, participants in the AI group scored 17% lower than those who coded by hand..."
Very interesting research paper that shows that using AI with programming can significantly reduce mastery over topics. Perhaps unsurprising, but the lack of significant speed gains in this exercise are remarkable
www.anthropic.com/research/AI-...
www.anthropic.com/research/AI-...
January 31, 2026 at 2:40 AM
Interesting paper
(Nothing the small sample size)
"...We found that using #AI assistance led to a statistically significant decrease in mastery. On a quiz that covered concepts they’d used just a few minutes before, participants in the AI group scored 17% lower than those who coded by hand..."
(Nothing the small sample size)
"...We found that using #AI assistance led to a statistically significant decrease in mastery. On a quiz that covered concepts they’d used just a few minutes before, participants in the AI group scored 17% lower than those who coded by hand..."
*Ouch!*
"... in which a button-eyed Cinderella points at gold baubles and designer dresses, cunningly distracting us while her husband and his cronies prepare to dismantle the Constitution and asset-strip the federal government..."
"... in which a button-eyed Cinderella points at gold baubles and designer dresses, cunningly distracting us while her husband and his cronies prepare to dismantle the Constitution and asset-strip the federal government..."
Melania review – Trump film is a gilded trash remake of The Zone of Interest
Dispiriting, deadly and unrevealing – there is a decent documentary to be made about the former model from Slovenia, but this one is unredeemable
www.theguardian.com
January 30, 2026 at 9:19 PM
*Ouch!*
"... in which a button-eyed Cinderella points at gold baubles and designer dresses, cunningly distracting us while her husband and his cronies prepare to dismantle the Constitution and asset-strip the federal government..."
"... in which a button-eyed Cinderella points at gold baubles and designer dresses, cunningly distracting us while her husband and his cronies prepare to dismantle the Constitution and asset-strip the federal government..."
For the enjoyment of #Bluesky:
Here's a photo of the mess I made when I spilled protein powder all over myself.
It was on the top shelf.
The bag wasn't closed properly.
And I'm an idiot.
🤦🏼♂️
Here's a photo of the mess I made when I spilled protein powder all over myself.
It was on the top shelf.
The bag wasn't closed properly.
And I'm an idiot.
🤦🏼♂️
January 29, 2026 at 11:55 PM
For the enjoyment of #Bluesky:
Here's a photo of the mess I made when I spilled protein powder all over myself.
It was on the top shelf.
The bag wasn't closed properly.
And I'm an idiot.
🤦🏼♂️
Here's a photo of the mess I made when I spilled protein powder all over myself.
It was on the top shelf.
The bag wasn't closed properly.
And I'm an idiot.
🤦🏼♂️
I've been thinking about this a lot lately.
12 months ago people were laughing at Devin.
Two weeks ago I made a functional android app in 30 minutes.
But sure, #AI is useless.
12 months ago people were laughing at Devin.
Two weeks ago I made a functional android app in 30 minutes.
But sure, #AI is useless.
The current anti-AI-capabilities take is something like, “sure it’s useful for software engineering, but not tasks that require *real* intelligence”
in 2025 i saw a very sudden change in median infosec from “useless stochastic parrot bubble autocomplete lol” once agents started doing actual hacking work. you can’t really afford to be out of touch in that context
January 29, 2026 at 9:49 PM
I've been thinking about this a lot lately.
12 months ago people were laughing at Devin.
Two weeks ago I made a functional android app in 30 minutes.
But sure, #AI is useless.
12 months ago people were laughing at Devin.
Two weeks ago I made a functional android app in 30 minutes.
But sure, #AI is useless.
I've been looking out for part-time opportunities that I can work around my consulting and it's amazing to me how rare they are.
I guess one explanation is that the burden of adding new staff makes full-time more cost effective(?).
I wonder what this looks like on a cross-country basis.
🤔
I guess one explanation is that the burden of adding new staff makes full-time more cost effective(?).
I wonder what this looks like on a cross-country basis.
🤔
January 29, 2026 at 2:54 AM
I've been looking out for part-time opportunities that I can work around my consulting and it's amazing to me how rare they are.
I guess one explanation is that the burden of adding new staff makes full-time more cost effective(?).
I wonder what this looks like on a cross-country basis.
🤔
I guess one explanation is that the burden of adding new staff makes full-time more cost effective(?).
I wonder what this looks like on a cross-country basis.
🤔
Are there any R users working for the Australian federal dept of health? I’d love to hear from you!
New gig, new people to meet :)
New gig, new people to meet :)
January 29, 2026 at 2:31 AM