Fred Gao
@fredgao.bsky.social
CGTN reporter based in Beijing, my view doesn't represent CGTN's standpoint
Substack channel Inside China: www.Fredgao.com
2020 graduate of Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University
Substack channel Inside China: www.Fredgao.com
2020 graduate of Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University
"礼崩乐坏" has become a keyword on the Chinese internet, describing the US' seizure of Maduro and its declaration that it'll "run" the country—echoing ancient warnings of norms collapsing into might-makes-right.A New Warring States era in global politics? open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
From the Zhou Court to Washington
How “礼崩乐坏” explains a world where rules remain on paper but legitimacy and restraint have quietly expired
open.substack.com
January 4, 2026 at 12:51 AM
"礼崩乐坏" has become a keyword on the Chinese internet, describing the US' seizure of Maduro and its declaration that it'll "run" the country—echoing ancient warnings of norms collapsing into might-makes-right.A New Warring States era in global politics? open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
What did China’s Politburo study in 2025? From proactive AI risk prevention & ethical red lines to curbing online triumphalism and Sinicizing religion—revealing key leadership priorities for the year ahead.
My year-end review: open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
My year-end review: open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
What Did the Chinese Politburo Learn in 2025?
Reviewing 2025 Politburo Group Study Sessions
open.substack.com
December 31, 2025 at 2:16 AM
What did China’s Politburo study in 2025? From proactive AI risk prevention & ethical red lines to curbing online triumphalism and Sinicizing religion—revealing key leadership priorities for the year ahead.
My year-end review: open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
My year-end review: open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
My preview of China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan, the "consumption rate" is likely to be incorporated as a key indicator in the 15th Five-Year Plan targets, including local government KPIs. www.fredgao.com/p/outlook-on...
Outlook on China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan
Yin Yanlin (former Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission Office), Liu Yuanchun, and Lu Feng on service consumption, AI, and fiscal reform
www.fredgao.com
August 28, 2025 at 11:17 AM
My preview of China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan, the "consumption rate" is likely to be incorporated as a key indicator in the 15th Five-Year Plan targets, including local government KPIs. www.fredgao.com/p/outlook-on...
How Supreme Court’s ruling ignite China’s social security debate? What consensus—if any—have scholars reached? Key flashpoints include compliance costs, the gig economy, the impact of an aging society, and pathways to greater urban–rural equity. open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
How the Supreme Court’s Ruling Sparked a New Wave of China’s Social Security Debate
Stricter enforcement boosts compliance but leaves unresolved who pays, how much, and whether to embrace more market‑driven investing
open.substack.com
August 22, 2025 at 12:21 PM
How Supreme Court’s ruling ignite China’s social security debate? What consensus—if any—have scholars reached? Key flashpoints include compliance costs, the gig economy, the impact of an aging society, and pathways to greater urban–rural equity. open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
Inside the Making of China’s 1984 economic reform Decision. The decision was formed only after a long debate. Although calls for reform once cooled down, the growth of the extra-plan economy pushed forward the reform of the planned system.
fredgao.substack.com/p/beyond-cro...
fredgao.substack.com/p/beyond-cro...
Beyond "Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones" Inside the Making of China’s 1984 Economic System Reform Decision
How Chinese leaders made up their minds on economic system transition
fredgao.substack.com
August 15, 2025 at 3:28 AM
Inside the Making of China’s 1984 economic reform Decision. The decision was formed only after a long debate. Although calls for reform once cooled down, the growth of the extra-plan economy pushed forward the reform of the planned system.
fredgao.substack.com/p/beyond-cro...
fredgao.substack.com/p/beyond-cro...
My latest piece is about the recent economic meeting chaired by Xi and the latest article published on Qiushi. Dealing with the race-to-the-bottom competition in EVs and local government business attraction measures has become a new policy focus.
open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
China's New Economic Priority: Ending the Race to the Bottom
Latest economic meeting chaired by Xi suggests Beijing is serious about ending the price wars destroying Chinese industries
open.substack.com
July 2, 2025 at 8:28 AM
My latest piece is about the recent economic meeting chaired by Xi and the latest article published on Qiushi. Dealing with the race-to-the-bottom competition in EVs and local government business attraction measures has become a new policy focus.
open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
Diao Daming categorizes Trump's recent radical agendas. His analysis reveals the method behind what many perceive as madness, particularly Trump's negotiation tactics of using extreme pressure as leverage for more modest gains.
www.fredgao.com/p/diao-damin...
www.fredgao.com/p/diao-damin...
Diao Daming's Analysis of Trump's Radical Domestic and Foreign Agenda
I need to apologize again for refocusing on US politics instead of Chinese affairs (perhaps I should rename this newsletter), but I think Professor Diao’s latest piece is worth sharing.
www.fredgao.com
July 1, 2025 at 7:10 AM
Diao Daming categorizes Trump's recent radical agendas. His analysis reveals the method behind what many perceive as madness, particularly Trump's negotiation tactics of using extreme pressure as leverage for more modest gains.
www.fredgao.com/p/diao-damin...
www.fredgao.com/p/diao-damin...
Chief Economist of Zhongtai Securities Li Xunlei analyzed why some local gov are reluctant to subsidize consumption while others prefer to keep investing with diminishing returns, suggesting restructure local gov incentives to support consumption growth. www.fredgao.com/p/li-xunlei-...
Li Xunlei: China's Consumption Challenge Requires New Local Government Metrics
Li Xunlei's perspective on restructuring government incentives to support consumption growth amid demographic shifts and economic headwinds
www.fredgao.com
May 30, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Chief Economist of Zhongtai Securities Li Xunlei analyzed why some local gov are reluctant to subsidize consumption while others prefer to keep investing with diminishing returns, suggesting restructure local gov incentives to support consumption growth. www.fredgao.com/p/li-xunlei-...
Got an interview with Swedish finance media Dagens Industrial, commenting about Chinese companies responses to Trump’s tariffs. Chinese business have been preparing for tariffs since Trump’s first term. By diversifying markets and shifting to ASEAN and Global South, they can handle the new tariffs
February 4, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Got an interview with Swedish finance media Dagens Industrial, commenting about Chinese companies responses to Trump’s tariffs. Chinese business have been preparing for tariffs since Trump’s first term. By diversifying markets and shifting to ASEAN and Global South, they can handle the new tariffs
Chinese Public Opinion Leaders Respond to "TikTok Refugees" Migrating to RedNote. Hu Xijin believes China should keep opening its internet and have the courage to embrace this influx of users, viewing it as a rare opportunity rather than a risk. open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
Chinese Public Opinion Leaders Respond to "TikTok Refugees" Migrating to RedNote
Hu Xijin(胡锡进) and Ming Jinwei(明叔杂谈) on TikTok Exodus
open.substack.com
January 15, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Chinese Public Opinion Leaders Respond to "TikTok Refugees" Migrating to RedNote. Hu Xijin believes China should keep opening its internet and have the courage to embrace this influx of users, viewing it as a rare opportunity rather than a risk. open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
Merely large-scale equipment renovation and consumer goods trade-in are not enough. Expecting more direct subsidies for rural residents and those who have no pensions.
open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
China Doubles Down on "Two New" Policy to Boost Consumption
Transcript of State Council Policy Briefing on Implementing the New Round of Large-Scale Equipment Renovation and Consumer Goods Trade-in Programs
open.substack.com
January 8, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Merely large-scale equipment renovation and consumer goods trade-in are not enough. Expecting more direct subsidies for rural residents and those who have no pensions.
open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
The ex-deputy director of the Office of the CPPCC Economic Committee suggests that fiscal policy should be directed toward expanding consumption and increasing transfer payments to low-income groups. Relax high-end consumption restrictions open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
More Active Fiscal Policy Should Target Consumption Boost: Ex-Deputy Director of CPPCC Economic Committee Suggested
As Investment Returns Diminish, Next Stage Fiscal Policy Should Focus on Direct Transfer Payments to Low-income Groups and Relax High-end Consumption Restrictions
open.substack.com
January 6, 2025 at 11:59 AM
The ex-deputy director of the Office of the CPPCC Economic Committee suggests that fiscal policy should be directed toward expanding consumption and increasing transfer payments to low-income groups. Relax high-end consumption restrictions open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
What Did the Chinese Politburo Learn in 2024? Topics vary from new energy development(Feb) to building China into a cultural powerhouse(Oct). I made a summary on politburo learning sessions and key takeaways; go check it out: www.fredgao.com/p/what-did-c...
What Did the Chinese Politburo Learn in 2024?
Reviewing Politburo Learning in 2024
www.fredgao.com
December 29, 2024 at 4:35 PM
What Did the Chinese Politburo Learn in 2024? Topics vary from new energy development(Feb) to building China into a cultural powerhouse(Oct). I made a summary on politburo learning sessions and key takeaways; go check it out: www.fredgao.com/p/what-did-c...
Professor Yao Yang, former Dean of PKU’s National School of Development, discussed the objectives of China’s socialist welfare system in his latest piece. A must-read to understand the ongoing public discussion surrounding enhancing Chinese welfare system www.fredgao.com/p/yao-yang-o...
Yao Yang on The Theoretical Foundation of China's Socialist Welfare System
Former Dean of PKU's National School of Development Discusses the Objectives of China's Welfare System
www.fredgao.com
December 23, 2024 at 11:24 AM
Professor Yao Yang, former Dean of PKU’s National School of Development, discussed the objectives of China’s socialist welfare system in his latest piece. A must-read to understand the ongoing public discussion surrounding enhancing Chinese welfare system www.fredgao.com/p/yao-yang-o...
China-India dialogue resumes with some positive signals, but the core of the dilemma is yet to be touched. Some of our analysis below
open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
China-India Dialogue Resumes: Analyzing Beijing's Signals in Border Relations
The 23rd Meeting of Special Representatives for the China-India Boundary Question (MSRCIBQ) was held on Wednesday in Beijing, where six points of consensus were reached.
open.substack.com
December 19, 2024 at 4:23 PM
China-India dialogue resumes with some positive signals, but the core of the dilemma is yet to be touched. Some of our analysis below
open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
open.substack.com/pub/fredgao/...
On my first day of vacation, I prepared firewood in a pre-recorded house of my friend in Dachang, Hebei Province, just one hour drive from where I live. Also made Beijing ver copper pot hotpot. There are so many interesting things to do
December 14, 2024 at 3:29 PM
On my first day of vacation, I prepared firewood in a pre-recorded house of my friend in Dachang, Hebei Province, just one hour drive from where I live. Also made Beijing ver copper pot hotpot. There are so many interesting things to do
China and Starbucks special edition, with mashed apple and cinnamon, tastee like 冰糖葫芦 with American characteristics🤣
December 12, 2024 at 4:32 AM
China and Starbucks special edition, with mashed apple and cinnamon, tastee like 冰糖葫芦 with American characteristics🤣
This time's characterization of fiscal and monetary policies shows an unprecedented level of commitment to stimulus. It specifically emphasized a more active fiscal policy, a moderately loose monetary policy, and extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustment
www.fredgao.com/p/chinas-pol...
www.fredgao.com/p/chinas-pol...
China's Politburo Signals "Extraordinary" Counter-cyclical Measures and "Proactive" Macro Policies for 2025
Key Economic Signals from China's December Politburo Meeting
www.fredgao.com
December 9, 2024 at 11:19 AM
This time's characterization of fiscal and monetary policies shows an unprecedented level of commitment to stimulus. It specifically emphasized a more active fiscal policy, a moderately loose monetary policy, and extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustment
www.fredgao.com/p/chinas-pol...
www.fredgao.com/p/chinas-pol...
Wang Yongli, the Bank of China's Former VP, suggests CIPS to focus on account system development while establishing an independent messaging component. Messaging system should follow the initial model of SWIFT, free of ALL state control-including China www.fredgao.com/p/can-cips-r...
Can CIPS Replace SWIFT? Insights from Bank of China's Former Vice President
Former Bank of China VP Wang Yongli: CIPS Should Separate Fund Account and Messaging Systems
www.fredgao.com
December 5, 2024 at 3:47 PM
Wang Yongli, the Bank of China's Former VP, suggests CIPS to focus on account system development while establishing an independent messaging component. Messaging system should follow the initial model of SWIFT, free of ALL state control-including China www.fredgao.com/p/can-cips-r...
Joined the GYLD dialogue, guest from Korea specifically mentioned the end of martial law, like it
December 5, 2024 at 3:04 AM
Joined the GYLD dialogue, guest from Korea specifically mentioned the end of martial law, like it
Chinese industry pushes back: 4 major trade groups—Internet, Semiconductor, Auto & Communications—issue strong responses to US Dec 2 chip curbs. www.fredgao.com/publish/post...
Sign in to Inside China
www.fredgao.com
December 3, 2024 at 12:44 PM
Chinese industry pushes back: 4 major trade groups—Internet, Semiconductor, Auto & Communications—issue strong responses to US Dec 2 chip curbs. www.fredgao.com/publish/post...
Go to Tianjin to watch the musical Cats; love it
November 30, 2024 at 8:36 AM
Go to Tianjin to watch the musical Cats; love it
It was the first US series I saw when I was very young. Still astonishing on the standard today, I even rewatch that every two years
Rewatching Band of Brothers and it really is an astonishingly good series despite being based on a very bad historian. Also interesting that they haven’t been able to make anything quite as good since with the same team.
November 30, 2024 at 2:43 AM
It was the first US series I saw when I was very young. Still astonishing on the standard today, I even rewatch that every two years