Fraser of Allander Institute
@fraserofallander.org
The Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde is an independent economic research unit providing expert analysis and insight on the Scottish economy. fraserofallander.org
Our latest blog dives into the key findings from our Serving the Future action research project, highlighting what we learned, what surprised us, and where we go next.
Read it here: buff.ly/J0ThvE7
Read it here: buff.ly/J0ThvE7
buff.ly
February 13, 2026 at 8:30 AM
Our latest blog dives into the key findings from our Serving the Future action research project, highlighting what we learned, what surprised us, and where we go next.
Read it here: buff.ly/J0ThvE7
Read it here: buff.ly/J0ThvE7
Our latest blog, by the Learning Disabilities Research Network at the University of Strathclyde, reflects on discussions from their recent Research Symposium. Link for external orgs to sign up to next event at the end of the blog.
The Ripple Effects of Work: Learning Disabilities Symposium
This blog was written collaboratively by the Learning Disabilities Research Network at the University of Strathclyde.
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February 11, 2026 at 11:01 AM
Our latest blog, by the Learning Disabilities Research Network at the University of Strathclyde, reflects on discussions from their recent Research Symposium. Link for external orgs to sign up to next event at the end of the blog.
Our latest commentary shows an improved outlook for both the Scottish and UK economies through 2027.
But alongside growth, Scotland is seeing falling payroll employment and rising benefit claims with job losses in hospitality, education & retail.
Read:
But alongside growth, Scotland is seeing falling payroll employment and rising benefit claims with job losses in hospitality, education & retail.
Read:
FAI Economic Commentary Q4 2025
A positive outlook for economic growth in Scotland, despite warning signs for the labour market.
buff.ly
February 9, 2026 at 9:01 AM
Our latest commentary shows an improved outlook for both the Scottish and UK economies through 2027.
But alongside growth, Scotland is seeing falling payroll employment and rising benefit claims with job losses in hospitality, education & retail.
Read:
But alongside growth, Scotland is seeing falling payroll employment and rising benefit claims with job losses in hospitality, education & retail.
Read:
The Scottish Health Equity Research Unit (SHERU) has published new analysis on poverty in Scotland. How do poverty rates compare with the rest of the UK, how have they changed over time, and what has driven those changes?
How do poverty rates in Scotland compare with the rest of the UK? | FAI
Poverty is a key determinant of health inequalities, but can itself be driven by a range of factors. A new report published by the Scottish Health Equity Research Unit (SHERU) compares poverty rates…
buff.ly
January 23, 2026 at 11:14 AM
The Scottish Health Equity Research Unit (SHERU) has published new analysis on poverty in Scotland. How do poverty rates compare with the rest of the UK, how have they changed over time, and what has driven those changes?
⚽ New report: The Economic Contribution of Scottish Professional Football ⚽
We are incredibly excited to publish our latest piece of economic analysis looking at the impact of Scottish professional football. Read the full report here:
We are incredibly excited to publish our latest piece of economic analysis looking at the impact of Scottish professional football. Read the full report here:
The Economic Contribution of Scottish Professional Football | FAI
This report examines the economic contribution of professional football to the Scottish economy during the 2023-24 season. It was commissioned by the Scottish Professional Football League (SPFL) and…
buff.ly
January 19, 2026 at 10:15 AM
⚽ New report: The Economic Contribution of Scottish Professional Football ⚽
We are incredibly excited to publish our latest piece of economic analysis looking at the impact of Scottish professional football. Read the full report here:
We are incredibly excited to publish our latest piece of economic analysis looking at the impact of Scottish professional football. Read the full report here:
The Scottish Government has published more information on how it plans to reallocate the savings from the abolition of the two-child limit. Do the numbers add up?
Budget - day 4 reaction - are the Scottish Government spending all the two-child limit savings on reducing child poverty? | SG
The Scottish Government have set out how they plan to reallocate savings from the abolition of the two-child limit – kind of. While we welcome additional clarity provided by a news release this…
buff.ly
January 16, 2026 at 4:08 PM
The Scottish Government has published more information on how it plans to reallocate the savings from the abolition of the two-child limit. Do the numbers add up?
More on the budget - if you haven't had enough!
Budget – day 3 reaction – Council tax & the Spending Review | FAI
Scotland will follow the UK Government’s example and introduce higher taxes on higher value properties. Whereas at the UK Government level this is being done as a new surcharge flowing to central…
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January 15, 2026 at 4:03 PM
More on the budget - if you haven't had enough!
Hear more about the details of the Scottish budget from FAI Director Mairi Spowage and Deputy Director João Sousa in our latest podcast 🎧
More on the 2026-27 Scottish Budget | FAI
FAI Director Mairi Spowage and Deputy Direction João Sousa join economist Hannah Randolph to talk through our immediate reaction to the Scottish budget statement. We discuss what was announced and…
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January 14, 2026 at 1:05 PM
Hear more about the details of the Scottish budget from FAI Director Mairi Spowage and Deputy Director João Sousa in our latest podcast 🎧
We have now updated our analysis, including:
- Why the health settlement looks too tight, especially given pay deals;
- Initial look at capital cuts;
- Why the income tax changes are expensive and change little;
- More details on child poverty plans.
fraserofallander.org/a-budget-whe...
- Why the health settlement looks too tight, especially given pay deals;
- Initial look at capital cuts;
- Why the income tax changes are expensive and change little;
- More details on child poverty plans.
fraserofallander.org/a-budget-whe...
January 13, 2026 at 6:55 PM
We have now updated our analysis, including:
- Why the health settlement looks too tight, especially given pay deals;
- Initial look at capital cuts;
- Why the income tax changes are expensive and change little;
- More details on child poverty plans.
fraserofallander.org/a-budget-whe...
- Why the health settlement looks too tight, especially given pay deals;
- Initial look at capital cuts;
- Why the income tax changes are expensive and change little;
- More details on child poverty plans.
fraserofallander.org/a-budget-whe...
The devil was in the detail and in what the Finance Secretary didn't say. Weaker tax revenues drove most of the £480m cut in day-to-day spending relative to June plans, even after raiding one-off pots; capital was cut by £850m. Our initial analysis:
buff.ly/99xjj1g
buff.ly/99xjj1g
A Budget where the silences were loudest | FAI
The devil was very much in the detail and in what wasn’t said by Shona Robison…
fraserofallander.org
January 13, 2026 at 4:54 PM
The devil was in the detail and in what the Finance Secretary didn't say. Weaker tax revenues drove most of the £480m cut in day-to-day spending relative to June plans, even after raiding one-off pots; capital was cut by £850m. Our initial analysis:
buff.ly/99xjj1g
buff.ly/99xjj1g
Our Director Mairi Spowage is on BBC Scotland now talking all things Budget and responding live:
Watch BBC Scotland live - BBC iPlayer
Watch BBC Scotland live on BBC iPlayer.
buff.ly
January 13, 2026 at 2:09 PM
Our Director Mairi Spowage is on BBC Scotland now talking all things Budget and responding live:
1/ ICYMI: Scotland’s Budget Report 2026-27 is live today!
Here's the key takeaways from our report that you should know about the upcoming Scottish budget on Tuesday 13th Jan... 🧵
buff.ly/52A9kpV
Here's the key takeaways from our report that you should know about the upcoming Scottish budget on Tuesday 13th Jan... 🧵
buff.ly/52A9kpV
January 9, 2026 at 12:01 PM
1/ ICYMI: Scotland’s Budget Report 2026-27 is live today!
Here's the key takeaways from our report that you should know about the upcoming Scottish budget on Tuesday 13th Jan... 🧵
buff.ly/52A9kpV
Here's the key takeaways from our report that you should know about the upcoming Scottish budget on Tuesday 13th Jan... 🧵
buff.ly/52A9kpV
📢 NEW: Scotland’s Budget Report for 2026-27 📢
Today, we publish our report on the upcoming Scottish Budget. One-off boosts mask an underlying resource deficit, but prioritisation will be required to rewrite unaffordable investment plans with a £1bn+ gap.
Read more here:
Today, we publish our report on the upcoming Scottish Budget. One-off boosts mask an underlying resource deficit, but prioritisation will be required to rewrite unaffordable investment plans with a £1bn+ gap.
Read more here:
buff.ly
January 9, 2026 at 6:00 AM
📢 NEW: Scotland’s Budget Report for 2026-27 📢
Today, we publish our report on the upcoming Scottish Budget. One-off boosts mask an underlying resource deficit, but prioritisation will be required to rewrite unaffordable investment plans with a £1bn+ gap.
Read more here:
Today, we publish our report on the upcoming Scottish Budget. One-off boosts mask an underlying resource deficit, but prioritisation will be required to rewrite unaffordable investment plans with a £1bn+ gap.
Read more here:
How do we make the aims of the Public Service Reform Strategy in relation to preventative budgeting a reality and what pitfalls need to be avoided? Some of our thoughts here:
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
Preventative budgeting in Scotland | FAI
Public service reform strategy and preventative budgeting - what needs to happen?
fraserofallander.org
January 7, 2026 at 3:58 PM
How do we make the aims of the Public Service Reform Strategy in relation to preventative budgeting a reality and what pitfalls need to be avoided? Some of our thoughts here:
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
Reposted by Fraser of Allander Institute
1/ This latest piece I've worked on is a reassessment of the implications of some of the OBR's long-term assumptions on indexation and what it means for fiscal sustainability.
Key point: fiscal drag is a feature, not a bug, and taxes are already going up even when thresholds are no longer frozen
Key point: fiscal drag is a feature, not a bug, and taxes are already going up even when thresholds are no longer frozen
January 6, 2026 at 5:49 PM
1/ This latest piece I've worked on is a reassessment of the implications of some of the OBR's long-term assumptions on indexation and what it means for fiscal sustainability.
Key point: fiscal drag is a feature, not a bug, and taxes are already going up even when thresholds are no longer frozen
Key point: fiscal drag is a feature, not a bug, and taxes are already going up even when thresholds are no longer frozen
How far away is the UK from fiscal sustainability? Read below to find out how fiscal drag and health spending affect these projections, and why the action needed to tackle the issue is smaller than might appear:
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
How far away is the UK from fiscal sustainability? | FAI
If you have been anywhere near the discussions about UK fiscal sustainability, the numbers look grim…
fraserofallander.org
January 6, 2026 at 2:11 PM
How far away is the UK from fiscal sustainability? Read below to find out how fiscal drag and health spending affect these projections, and why the action needed to tackle the issue is smaller than might appear:
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
When ministers say the Scottish Budget is balanced, is it a meaningful statement? Have they been plugging gaps with borrowing and non-recurring funding, including in the ABR?
Welcome to our Budget Report preview series - look out for more in January!
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
Welcome to our Budget Report preview series - look out for more in January!
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
How balanced is the Scottish Budget? | FAI
It has almost become a ritual – an article of faith that is repeated endlessly in the Scottish Parliament…
fraserofallander.org
December 19, 2025 at 3:48 PM
When ministers say the Scottish Budget is balanced, is it a meaningful statement? Have they been plugging gaps with borrowing and non-recurring funding, including in the ABR?
Welcome to our Budget Report preview series - look out for more in January!
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
Welcome to our Budget Report preview series - look out for more in January!
fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
Glasgow City Council is proposing new neighbourhood parking controls with pay & display fees and emissions-based permits.
🎙️In our latest podcast, Hannah, Allison, & Josh break down:
▶️ What these changes mean for residents
▶️How this ties to air quality & climate goals.
👂Listen now:
🎙️In our latest podcast, Hannah, Allison, & Josh break down:
▶️ What these changes mean for residents
▶️How this ties to air quality & climate goals.
👂Listen now:
buff.ly
December 18, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Glasgow City Council is proposing new neighbourhood parking controls with pay & display fees and emissions-based permits.
🎙️In our latest podcast, Hannah, Allison, & Josh break down:
▶️ What these changes mean for residents
▶️How this ties to air quality & climate goals.
👂Listen now:
🎙️In our latest podcast, Hannah, Allison, & Josh break down:
▶️ What these changes mean for residents
▶️How this ties to air quality & climate goals.
👂Listen now:
Reposted by Fraser of Allander Institute
1/📄 New working paper
www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwe...
On 4 Nov, the Chancellor heavily hinted Labour might break its manifesto and raise income tax. Nine days later: plan dropped, blamed on "better than expected OBR forecasts."
Those forecasts were delivered 5 days BEFORE her speech.
Thread 👇
www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwe...
On 4 Nov, the Chancellor heavily hinted Labour might break its manifesto and raise income tax. Nine days later: plan dropped, blamed on "better than expected OBR forecasts."
Those forecasts were delivered 5 days BEFORE her speech.
Thread 👇
December 12, 2025 at 3:28 PM
1/📄 New working paper
www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwe...
On 4 Nov, the Chancellor heavily hinted Labour might break its manifesto and raise income tax. Nine days later: plan dropped, blamed on "better than expected OBR forecasts."
Those forecasts were delivered 5 days BEFORE her speech.
Thread 👇
www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwe...
On 4 Nov, the Chancellor heavily hinted Labour might break its manifesto and raise income tax. Nine days later: plan dropped, blamed on "better than expected OBR forecasts."
Those forecasts were delivered 5 days BEFORE her speech.
Thread 👇
The chaos of the UK Budget showed a broken process. But how can it be fixed? In this blog, our deputy director @joaosousa.bsky.social proposes a way forward: the OBR would first publish its baseline forecast, with a three-week window for Treasury policymaking.
Read more below:
buff.ly/ErNtglY
Read more below:
buff.ly/ErNtglY
A broken UK Budget process - and proposal to fix it | FAI
The consequences of the drip, drip, drip of Treasury briefing to the press in advance were no more apparent than during the chaotic…
fraserofallander.org
December 12, 2025 at 1:25 PM
The chaos of the UK Budget showed a broken process. But how can it be fixed? In this blog, our deputy director @joaosousa.bsky.social proposes a way forward: the OBR would first publish its baseline forecast, with a three-week window for Treasury policymaking.
Read more below:
buff.ly/ErNtglY
Read more below:
buff.ly/ErNtglY
Today we are launching the Scottish Public Spending Dashboard, a collaboration between the FAI and JRF. This is a new tool allowing detailed government spending figures to be accessed and analysed by a broader set of people.
Learn more below:
Learn more below:
buff.ly
December 11, 2025 at 8:00 AM
Today we are launching the Scottish Public Spending Dashboard, a collaboration between the FAI and JRF. This is a new tool allowing detailed government spending figures to be accessed and analysed by a broader set of people.
Learn more below:
Learn more below:
What’s happening to economic activity, employment and earnings in Scotland’s hospitality sector?
Find out in our latest Hospitality Statistics Briefing for 2025 👉
Find out in our latest Hospitality Statistics Briefing for 2025 👉
buff.ly
December 5, 2025 at 8:01 AM
What’s happening to economic activity, employment and earnings in Scotland’s hospitality sector?
Find out in our latest Hospitality Statistics Briefing for 2025 👉
Find out in our latest Hospitality Statistics Briefing for 2025 👉
Support for people with learning disabilities should reflect daily experiences, communication & wellbeing. Our collaboration with SCLD, PAMIS & DHI explores how person-owned data stores can help do this, while also enhancing the evidence base. Read more: buff.ly/acN7Umg
December 2, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Support for people with learning disabilities should reflect daily experiences, communication & wellbeing. Our collaboration with SCLD, PAMIS & DHI explores how person-owned data stores can help do this, while also enhancing the evidence base. Read more: buff.ly/acN7Umg
Listen to our podcast reacting to yesterday's Budget, where we talk about the two-child limit abolition, tax rises and the risks in the course chosen by the Chancellor, and the chaos of the process:
buff.ly/Vy8nodi
We also have a round-up of some measures you may have missed:
buff.ly/ziriaXW
buff.ly/Vy8nodi
We also have a round-up of some measures you may have missed:
buff.ly/ziriaXW
Podcast: Reaction to the 2025 Budget | FAI
In this episode, FAI Deputy Director João Sousa is joined by FAI Director Mairi Spowage and Senior KE Fellow Spencer Thompson to talk through their reactions to the 2025 UK Budget.
fraserofallander.org
November 27, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Listen to our podcast reacting to yesterday's Budget, where we talk about the two-child limit abolition, tax rises and the risks in the course chosen by the Chancellor, and the chaos of the process:
buff.ly/Vy8nodi
We also have a round-up of some measures you may have missed:
buff.ly/ziriaXW
buff.ly/Vy8nodi
We also have a round-up of some measures you may have missed:
buff.ly/ziriaXW
We have now updated our blog with all the analysis we'll include tonight. Read below:
buff.ly/0T3M3SD
Stay tuned tomorrow as we round up the news on the budget in an edition of our podcast, and we'll add some more analysis in the afternoon as well
buff.ly/0T3M3SD
Stay tuned tomorrow as we round up the news on the budget in an edition of our podcast, and we'll add some more analysis in the afternoon as well
Budget 2025 reaction: meeting the (briefed) expectations | FAI
*Please note that this blog will be updated over the course of the afternoon and evening. Check back for further analysis*
fraserofallander.org
November 26, 2025 at 5:38 PM
We have now updated our blog with all the analysis we'll include tonight. Read below:
buff.ly/0T3M3SD
Stay tuned tomorrow as we round up the news on the budget in an edition of our podcast, and we'll add some more analysis in the afternoon as well
buff.ly/0T3M3SD
Stay tuned tomorrow as we round up the news on the budget in an edition of our podcast, and we'll add some more analysis in the afternoon as well