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francesconicoli.bsky.social
Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓
@francesconicoli.bsky.social
6.3K followers 2.4K following 3.1K posts

All things Europe, in all things European.

Neofunctionalist-in-chief, trilemmer, sci-fi & fantasy nerd.

Political economist, associate professor at Politecnico of Turin, former fellow at Bruegel.

" Europe will be made through crises...." .. more

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Economics 22%
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francesconicoli.bsky.social
Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓 @francesconicoli.bsky.social · Jan 9
First paper of 2026, and I should add, absolutely topical.

www.fondazionecsf.it/en/activitie...

Reposted by Francesco Nicoli

maks23.bsky.social
MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 2h
Russian losses 💥

francesconicoli.bsky.social
Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓 @francesconicoli.bsky.social · 14h
By any definition of war, targeting in a first strike someone else's nuclear submarines crosses the nuclear escalation threshold.

francesconicoli.bsky.social
Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓 @francesconicoli.bsky.social · 14h
It is *not* a need, unless we revise the definition of need. A nice addition? For sure. A need? Certainly, and I stress it, no.
Ah, the complexity is a order of magnitude lower than spacecraft.

francesconicoli.bsky.social
Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓 @francesconicoli.bsky.social · 15h
This is state secret. What we know is that typically the UK exchanges operational missiles for new (updated) ones when crossing the US base in georgia on patrol. Likely this is routine, but it is not "a need": trident is certified for decades of operational life without need of refurbishment.

francesconicoli.bsky.social
Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓 @francesconicoli.bsky.social · 15h
2- what if the US hunts down UK submarines?
Okay, well that's a nuclear war between the US and the UK. Are you sure you aren't pushing your fantapolitics a bit too much?

francesconicoli.bsky.social
Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓 @francesconicoli.bsky.social · 15h
1- I doubt the UK would NOT retaliate should they be the ones who were targeted, whatever the US says. And when it comes to the UK offering protection to other targets, that's exactly what we discuss in the paper: external guarantees are NOT credible. UK, FR, or others.

francesconicoli.bsky.social
Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓 @francesconicoli.bsky.social · 15h
if you lose access to trident (i.e., refurbishing tridents) you still have your deployed stockpile. This gives you enough time to find solutions without gaps in deterrence.

On the other political issues:

francesconicoli.bsky.social
Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓 @francesconicoli.bsky.social · 17h
In other words: in a protracted nuclear exchange you always need the US (even France). While countervalue deterrence is sufficiently provided by the operational part of trident.

francesconicoli.bsky.social
Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓 @francesconicoli.bsky.social · 17h
Again: trident rotation is organised so to always have enough countervalue capabilty. Should it come to blows AND should then the US withdraw support, active trident would still be enough for countervalue. And IF they are not enough you would ANYWAY be in a counterforce, full blown nuclear war.

francesconicoli.bsky.social
Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓 @francesconicoli.bsky.social · 21h
I disagree.
For countervalue deterrence, you don't need to convince your opponent you can fight a sustained nuclear war beyond your initial stockpile. If you reach the point where your stockpile is gone, you are way past countervalue, so the UK (and FR) stockpiles would be insufficient anyway.

francesconicoli.bsky.social
Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓 @francesconicoli.bsky.social · 21h
The missiles on duty on patrol submarines are under UK, not US, control. The missiles and warheads which are under refurbishment or which are requested as an addition to the deployed stock require US consent.

francesconicoli.bsky.social
Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓 @francesconicoli.bsky.social · 21h
It's a tad more complicated than that. The lease arrangement of tridents does not relinquish launch control. The US cannot (technically) stop a UK launch. What the US can do is to stop supplying vectors, which means the UK assured capability is limited to the deployed warheads.

francesconicoli.bsky.social
Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓 @francesconicoli.bsky.social · 23h
www.bruegel.org/working-pape...

francesconicoli.bsky.social
Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓 @francesconicoli.bsky.social · 23h
This is not easy. A design mistake, and a joint deterrent is a useless waste of money.

Thankfully, Andrea Gilli and I got you covered.

SINCE TWO YEARS.

www.bruegel.org/working-pape...

Reposted by Francesco Nicoli

maks23.bsky.social
MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 1d
🇩🇪🇺🇦 Our lesson for today should be this: we cannot afford another "paper tiger" like Budapest Memorandum. To provide reliable and real security guarantees, all of us - Europeans and Americans - must do our part. Europe and Germany are ready to play their part, — Boris Pistorius.

Reposted by Francesco Nicoli

maks23.bsky.social
MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 1d
🇪🇺☢️ Multiple European countries are publicly backing talks on a homegrown nuclear deterrent to complement American atomic weapons.

Top officials from Baltic countries told POLITICO that, while they still see NATO as cornerstone of nuclear deterrence, they are now willing to talk about Europe’s role.

Reposted by Francesco Nicoli

kyivindependent.com
The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 1d
⚡️Azerbaijan's president accuses Russia of 'deliberate attack' on country's embassy in Ukraine.

Russia's strikes on Azerbaijan's energy infrastructure and embassy in Ukraine represent "a deliberate attack on the diplomatic mission of Azerbaijan," President Ilham Aliyev said on Feb. 14.
Azerbaijan's president accuses Russia of 'deliberate attack' on country's embassy in Ukraine
"There were three attacks on the energy infrastructure of Azerbaijan in Ukraine, and there were also three attacks on the Azerbaijani embassy in Ukraine," Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev told the i...
kyivindependent.com

Reposted by Francesco Nicoli

maks23.bsky.social
MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 1d
🇫🇮 Ukraine will win this war, — Finnish President Stubb

💡 Ukraine wants to talk about energy truce at Geneva talks, — Umerov

🚀 Taurus. We do not have a decision from the German side, but I have to find a balance in the dialogue. I choose what I can get now, — Zelensky.

Reposted by Francesco Nicoli

ioponomarenko.bsky.social
Illia Ponomarenko @ioponomarenko.bsky.social · 2d
It is not merely that one must under no circumstances continue appeasing Putin by keeping Ukraine out of NATO -- now every thinking person should be practically praying for a force like Ukraine to be part of the free world's collective defense.

Reposted by Francesco Nicoli

ioponomarenko.bsky.social
Illia Ponomarenko @ioponomarenko.bsky.social · 2d
I believe this shocking Wall Street Journal article about how a handful of Ukrainian drone operators destroyed two NATO battalions during exercises already answers all questions and makes the point more than clear.

Reposted by Francesco Nicoli

ioponomarenko.bsky.social
Illia Ponomarenko @ioponomarenko.bsky.social · 2d
Remove as well Ukraine itself, which has endured a WWI-scale mobilization (an extraordinarily difficult task in modern society, especially in a free democracy!), also secured significant Western support, and proved ready to fight fiercely for years against such a vastly superior enemy.

Reposted by Francesco Nicoli

noelreports.com
NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 2d
President Zelensky said Ukraine has made many compromises and called the fact that Putin and his associates are not in prison the biggest compromise the world has already made. He said Kyiv agreed to an unconditional ceasefire proposed by Trump, but Putin refused. #Ukraine

Reposted by Francesco Nicoli

maks23.bsky.social
MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 2d
🇭🇺 The leader of the Hungarian opposition said that he was the victim of a “sex trap”, during which the secret services secretly recorded his intimate relationship with an adult woman.

A photo appeared with the announcement of the full video, which opponents from Orban’s party gave to journalists.

Reposted by Francesco Nicoli

noelreports.com
NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 2d
President Zelensky held a meeting with Iran’s exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi at the Munich Security Conference. Pahlavi thanked Zelensky for strong words of support for the Iranian people. He said 40,000 people were killed during protests in Iran, 300,000 were injured and 40,000 imprisoned.

Reposted by Francesco Nicoli

maks23.bsky.social
MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 3d
🇺🇦👀 Fedorov: “We left Russia without communication [Starlink]: I think there is a good opportunity to show strategic initiative. This is just the beginning.”

Reposted by Francesco Nicoli

timkmak.bsky.social
Tim Mak @timkmak.bsky.social · 3d
Ali slept overnight on his friend’s grave after a funeral marked by singing and dancing, gestures so dangerous in Iran they can lead to arrest.

As graves fill with victims of the IRGC crackdown, funerals are shedding quiet submission and erupting into song, movement, and noise.
So many Iranians killed, funeral traditions are changing
As the Iranian regime’s violence disrupts burial traditions, some Iranians are reinventing how they mourn by publicly singing and dancing.
www.counteroffensive.news

Reposted by Francesco Nicoli

kyivindependent.com
The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 4d
⚡️Ukraine needs 'specific date' for entry into EU, Zelensky says.

"I am absolutely confident that if ... there is no date, then Russia will do everything to block the process," President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Feb. 11.
Ukraine needs 'specific date' for entry into EU, Zelensky says
"I am absolutely confident that if ... there is no date, then Russia will do everything to block the process," President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Feb. 11.
kyivindependent.com

Reposted by Francesco Nicoli

pravda.ua
Ukrainska Pravda 🇺🇦 @pravda.ua · 4d
🤡 IOC bans another Ukrainian athlete from wearing helmet with slogan at Olympics
IOC bans another Ukrainian athlete from wearing helmet with slogan at Olympics
The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has continued to put pressure on Ukrainian athletes competing at the 2026 Olympic Games.
www.pravda.com.ua

Reposted by Francesco Nicoli

ashokdadhwal.bsky.social
Ashok Dadhwal @ashokdadhwal.bsky.social · 4d
So peaceful church protesters get hunted, while a Jan 6 insurrectionist who screamed for cops to be killed gets pardoned and put on the payroll. That’s not law enforcement, that’s moral collapse dressed up as authority.

francesconicoli.bsky.social
Francesco Nicoli 🇪🇺 🎓 @francesconicoli.bsky.social · 4d
Well you don't know how many times I have been told by reviewers that results werent significant enough.

This is our own community responsibility. Journal editors need to step up and provide clear guidance.