Fabio Sabatini
@fabiosabatini.bsky.social
Professor of Economics, Sapienza University of Rome | IZA Fellow, Bonn | fabiosabatini.site.uniroma1.it | Substack: https://fabiosabatini.substack.com/
Pinned
L’America non è più una democrazia liberale
Anatomia di una transizione autoritaria senza colpi di Stato
fabiosabatini.substack.com
🧵 L’America non è più una democrazia liberale.
Il mio nuovo post su Substack descrive in modo sistematico il cambio di regime innescato dall'amministrazione Trump.
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Il mio nuovo post su Substack descrive in modo sistematico il cambio di regime innescato dall'amministrazione Trump.
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Uno schema che non riguarda solo gli Stati Uniti e che dobbiamo imparare a riconoscere per difendere la democrazia.
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February 5, 2026 at 10:58 AM
Uno schema che non riguarda solo gli Stati Uniti e che dobbiamo imparare a riconoscere per difendere la democrazia.
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Senza carri armati: attraverso la riconversione funzionale delle istituzioni, l’intimidazione del dissenso, il controllo dell’ecosistema informativo e la compressione degli spazi di libertà civile, a partire dal voto.
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February 5, 2026 at 10:58 AM
Senza carri armati: attraverso la riconversione funzionale delle istituzioni, l’intimidazione del dissenso, il controllo dell’ecosistema informativo e la compressione degli spazi di libertà civile, a partire dal voto.
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2/3
🧵 L’America non è più una democrazia liberale.
Il mio nuovo post su Substack descrive in modo sistematico il cambio di regime innescato dall'amministrazione Trump.
1/3
Il mio nuovo post su Substack descrive in modo sistematico il cambio di regime innescato dall'amministrazione Trump.
1/3
L’America non è più una democrazia liberale
Anatomia di una transizione autoritaria senza colpi di Stato
fabiosabatini.substack.com
February 5, 2026 at 10:58 AM
🧵 L’America non è più una democrazia liberale.
Il mio nuovo post su Substack descrive in modo sistematico il cambio di regime innescato dall'amministrazione Trump.
1/3
Il mio nuovo post su Substack descrive in modo sistematico il cambio di regime innescato dall'amministrazione Trump.
1/3
Reposted by Fabio Sabatini
🧵 The Epstein files should not be understood merely as another grotesque sex scandal involving wealthy and powerful individuals.
Their real political significance lies elsewhere.
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Their real political significance lies elsewhere.
1/14
February 3, 2026 at 9:34 AM
🧵 The Epstein files should not be understood merely as another grotesque sex scandal involving wealthy and powerful individuals.
Their real political significance lies elsewhere.
1/14
Their real political significance lies elsewhere.
1/14
They are pursuing personal power and private advantage in ways that dovetail with the strategic objectives of the Russian regime and other authoritarian systems openly hostile to Europe and its member states.
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February 3, 2026 at 9:34 AM
They are pursuing personal power and private advantage in ways that dovetail with the strategic objectives of the Russian regime and other authoritarian systems openly hostile to Europe and its member states.
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One conclusion nonetheless stands out. Political forces that consistently oppose European integration and align with Putin’s Russia, while branding themselves as “nationalist,” are not advancing national interests — European or otherwise.
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February 3, 2026 at 9:34 AM
One conclusion nonetheless stands out. Political forces that consistently oppose European integration and align with Putin’s Russia, while branding themselves as “nationalist,” are not advancing national interests — European or otherwise.
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What is clear, however, is that events have moved beyond the point where further revelations from the Epstein files are likely to shift public opinion. The contemporary information ecosystem is increasingly resistant to empirical evidence, even when that evidence is overwhelming.
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February 3, 2026 at 9:34 AM
What is clear, however, is that events have moved beyond the point where further revelations from the Epstein files are likely to shift public opinion. The contemporary information ecosystem is increasingly resistant to empirical evidence, even when that evidence is overwhelming.
12/14
12/14
In any case, blaming democratic backsliding on a single external conspiracy would be comforting but misleading. The erosion of liberal democracy has deep internal causes.
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February 3, 2026 at 9:34 AM
In any case, blaming democratic backsliding on a single external conspiracy would be comforting but misleading. The erosion of liberal democracy has deep internal causes.
11/14
11/14
Whether — and to what degree — the network surrounding Epstein materially supported populist movements, or whether such support directly affected electoral outcomes — from Brexit to the rise of the far right in Italy — is something we may never be able to establish definitively.
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February 3, 2026 at 9:34 AM
Whether — and to what degree — the network surrounding Epstein materially supported populist movements, or whether such support directly affected electoral outcomes — from Brexit to the rise of the far right in Italy — is something we may never be able to establish definitively.
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This ecosystem includes consolidated autocracies such as Russia; competitive authoritarian governments such as the Trump administration; anti-system parties within liberal democracies — from AfD to Reform UK, from France’s Rassemblement National to Italy’s Lega and Five Star Movement.
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February 3, 2026 at 9:34 AM
This ecosystem includes consolidated autocracies such as Russia; competitive authoritarian governments such as the Trump administration; anti-system parties within liberal democracies — from AfD to Reform UK, from France’s Rassemblement National to Italy’s Lega and Five Star Movement.
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What matters is the practical convergence of goals, rhetoric, and behavior — above all, a shared hostility toward the core foundations of liberal democracy: pluralism, minority protection, the rule of law, institutional constraints on executive power.
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February 3, 2026 at 9:34 AM
What matters is the practical convergence of goals, rhetoric, and behavior — above all, a shared hostility toward the core foundations of liberal democracy: pluralism, minority protection, the rule of law, institutional constraints on executive power.
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8/14
It operates instead as a flexible network of cooperation across regimes, parties, economic actors, and media platforms. Participation does not require an explicit rejection of democracy.
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February 3, 2026 at 9:34 AM
It operates instead as a flexible network of cooperation across regimes, parties, economic actors, and media platforms. Participation does not require an explicit rejection of democracy.
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7/14
This is not a formal alliance. It is neither centralized nor stable. It has no headquarters and no chain of command.
Nor is it held together by a shared ideology, or limited to outright dictatorships.
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Nor is it held together by a shared ideology, or limited to outright dictatorships.
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February 3, 2026 at 9:34 AM
This is not a formal alliance. It is neither centralized nor stable. It has no headquarters and no chain of command.
Nor is it held together by a shared ideology, or limited to outright dictatorships.
6/14
Nor is it held together by a shared ideology, or limited to outright dictatorships.
6/14
In a previous Substack post (in Italian), I described a political configuration that closely overlaps with what now surfaces indirectly through the Epstein files: a transnational front hostile to liberal democracy.
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L’internazionale dell’autoritarismo
Come i regimi illiberali cooperano per smantellare le democrazie
fabiosabatini.substack.com
February 3, 2026 at 9:34 AM
In a previous Substack post (in Italian), I described a political configuration that closely overlaps with what now surfaces indirectly through the Epstein files: a transnational front hostile to liberal democracy.
5/14
5/14
... and converging on 2 strategic objectives that are anything but abstract — the construction of a competitive authoritarian regime in the U.S. and the end of the European Union.
The larger consequence is a structural crisis of the democratic West as it has existed since the postwar order.
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The larger consequence is a structural crisis of the democratic West as it has existed since the postwar order.
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February 3, 2026 at 9:34 AM
... and converging on 2 strategic objectives that are anything but abstract — the construction of a competitive authoritarian regime in the U.S. and the end of the European Union.
The larger consequence is a structural crisis of the democratic West as it has existed since the postwar order.
4/14
The larger consequence is a structural crisis of the democratic West as it has existed since the postwar order.
4/14
At the center of this network appears to sit Putin’s Russia. From there, its influence radiates outward: reinforcing the MAGA project in the United States, backing populist and anti-European forces across Europe...
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February 3, 2026 at 9:34 AM
At the center of this network appears to sit Putin’s Russia. From there, its influence radiates outward: reinforcing the MAGA project in the United States, backing populist and anti-European forces across Europe...
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What emerges from these documents is the outline of a transnational web of relationships that has functioned — and likely still functions — as a system of coordination, influence, and coercion in support of authoritarian projects and against liberal democracy.
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February 3, 2026 at 9:34 AM
What emerges from these documents is the outline of a transnational web of relationships that has functioned — and likely still functions — as a system of coordination, influence, and coercion in support of authoritarian projects and against liberal democracy.
2/14
2/14
🧵 The Epstein files should not be understood merely as another grotesque sex scandal involving wealthy and powerful individuals.
Their real political significance lies elsewhere.
1/14
Their real political significance lies elsewhere.
1/14
February 3, 2026 at 9:34 AM
🧵 The Epstein files should not be understood merely as another grotesque sex scandal involving wealthy and powerful individuals.
Their real political significance lies elsewhere.
1/14
Their real political significance lies elsewhere.
1/14
Reposted by Fabio Sabatini
🧵 1 year into Trump’s new term, the U.S. economy does not yet display the kind of damage tariffs typically inflict over the medium run. Inflation has risen, but not dramatically. Unemployment has remained broadly stable. Customs revenues have surged.
So have the tariffs worked?
No. 👇
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So have the tariffs worked?
No. 👇
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Why Trump’s tariffs have failed
Who is really paying the cost—and why the Greenland tariff threat rings hollow
civiceconomist.substack.com
February 1, 2026 at 7:44 AM
🧵 1 year into Trump’s new term, the U.S. economy does not yet display the kind of damage tariffs typically inflict over the medium run. Inflation has risen, but not dramatically. Unemployment has remained broadly stable. Customs revenues have surged.
So have the tariffs worked?
No. 👇
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So have the tariffs worked?
No. 👇
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In the post linked at the top of this thread, I explain why the most harmful effects of Trump’s tariffs have yet to fully surface, who has actually borne their cost so far, what is likely to come next.
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February 1, 2026 at 7:44 AM
In the post linked at the top of this thread, I explain why the most harmful effects of Trump’s tariffs have yet to fully surface, who has actually borne their cost so far, what is likely to come next.
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The U.S. economy’s apparent resilience is not evidence that the tariff strategy has succeeded. It is the byproduct of a mix of structural conditions and short-term contingencies that have, for now, softened or obscured the costs imposed by trade barriers.
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February 1, 2026 at 7:44 AM
The U.S. economy’s apparent resilience is not evidence that the tariff strategy has succeeded. It is the byproduct of a mix of structural conditions and short-term contingencies that have, for now, softened or obscured the costs imposed by trade barriers.
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🧵 1 year into Trump’s new term, the U.S. economy does not yet display the kind of damage tariffs typically inflict over the medium run. Inflation has risen, but not dramatically. Unemployment has remained broadly stable. Customs revenues have surged.
So have the tariffs worked?
No. 👇
1/3
So have the tariffs worked?
No. 👇
1/3
Why Trump’s tariffs have failed
Who is really paying the cost—and why the Greenland tariff threat rings hollow
civiceconomist.substack.com
February 1, 2026 at 7:44 AM
🧵 1 year into Trump’s new term, the U.S. economy does not yet display the kind of damage tariffs typically inflict over the medium run. Inflation has risen, but not dramatically. Unemployment has remained broadly stable. Customs revenues have surged.
So have the tariffs worked?
No. 👇
1/3
So have the tariffs worked?
No. 👇
1/3
Reposted by Fabio Sabatini
Ever scrolled through a social media debate and felt like someone was pulling the strings? Dozens of different profiles, different tones, different identities — all converging on the same narrative, as if it were self-evident.
Some of this noise can now be generated by AI swarms.
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Some of this noise can now be generated by AI swarms.
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AI Swarms and the New Front of Cognitive Warfare
Multi-agent systems are reshaping the information ecosystem to undermine liberal democracies
civiceconomist.substack.com
January 31, 2026 at 8:02 AM
Ever scrolled through a social media debate and felt like someone was pulling the strings? Dozens of different profiles, different tones, different identities — all converging on the same narrative, as if it were self-evident.
Some of this noise can now be generated by AI swarms.
1/7
Some of this noise can now be generated by AI swarms.
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In my new post in The Civic Economist, linked at the top of this thread, I break down how AI swarms work and what they're targeting.
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January 31, 2026 at 8:02 AM
In my new post in The Civic Economist, linked at the top of this thread, I break down how AI swarms work and what they're targeting.
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Poisoning Wikipedia and other repositories of shared knowledge means intervening in what will tomorrow be treated as "neutral" background by the very technologies that organize access to information: search engines and chatbots.
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January 31, 2026 at 8:02 AM
Poisoning Wikipedia and other repositories of shared knowledge means intervening in what will tomorrow be treated as "neutral" background by the very technologies that organize access to information: search engines and chatbots.
6/7
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