Ensembleator
@ensembleator.bsky.social
Semi-retired meteorologist, living in lovely #YVR since 1994. I often write forecasts using abbreviations due to social media character limits. Dnt wry, U wll gt it.
Continental arctic air remains to the N of SWBC this AM, as modified arctic air (modified by some trajectory over the ocean) circulates into the area. Cooler sfc outflow should dvlp Wed as arctic air deepens E of the Cst Range, maxing out Thu. An outflow fnt w/hvy flurries may dvlp Wed...
February 16, 2026 at 4:27 PM
Continental arctic air remains to the N of SWBC this AM, as modified arctic air (modified by some trajectory over the ocean) circulates into the area. Cooler sfc outflow should dvlp Wed as arctic air deepens E of the Cst Range, maxing out Thu. An outflow fnt w/hvy flurries may dvlp Wed...
Upr low by Haida Gwaii sinking S. A cold unstbl W flow aloft circulatg into SWBC bcms more SLy thru the day. Upr low drops to the S Tue but is replacd by a similar-path upr low Thu. Rdg builds in Fri. Cool/w shwrs-wintry mix-snow possible @ sea lvl #YVR thru Thu. It's convective: deets are nowcasts
February 16, 2026 at 4:05 PM
Upr low by Haida Gwaii sinking S. A cold unstbl W flow aloft circulatg into SWBC bcms more SLy thru the day. Upr low drops to the S Tue but is replacd by a similar-path upr low Thu. Rdg builds in Fri. Cool/w shwrs-wintry mix-snow possible @ sea lvl #YVR thru Thu. It's convective: deets are nowcasts
Dispersion of light in fog around a tree top
February 15, 2026 at 6:19 PM
Dispersion of light in fog around a tree top
Still, foggy morning on Hayward Lake near Mission BC
February 15, 2026 at 4:46 PM
Still, foggy morning on Hayward Lake near Mission BC
Ptchy low cld/fog esp near open water #YVR otwz 🌞. Clds this eve as a cold fnt approaches fm the NW. Wintry mix Mon-Tue AM as an upr low 55N 138W digs S just offshr w/the LM under a cold, unstbl Sly flow. Arctic air deepens inland Wed w/chc flurries in outflow convergence. Dry Thu-Fri, cool outflow
February 15, 2026 at 2:42 PM
Ptchy low cld/fog esp near open water #YVR otwz 🌞. Clds this eve as a cold fnt approaches fm the NW. Wintry mix Mon-Tue AM as an upr low 55N 138W digs S just offshr w/the LM under a cold, unstbl Sly flow. Arctic air deepens inland Wed w/chc flurries in outflow convergence. Dry Thu-Fri, cool outflow
Eyes on the potential for quite cool weather Wed-Thu. Euro mdl shows arctic air piling up E of the coast range, with the LM and outer coast insulated to a certain extent by warming, downsloping wind. E Fraser Vly and STS passes into the interior are typically very windy in these patterns.
February 14, 2026 at 3:23 PM
Eyes on the potential for quite cool weather Wed-Thu. Euro mdl shows arctic air piling up E of the coast range, with the LM and outer coast insulated to a certain extent by warming, downsloping wind. E Fraser Vly and STS passes into the interior are typically very windy in these patterns.
#YVR undr a cool SW flow aloft, E of a NE-SW upr trof fm NE BC to ~40N 140W. A vortmax lifting NE, just E of Campbell Rvr. A weak rdg blds in Sun AM, followed by a cold fnt/digging upr trof Mon. Shwrs AM #YVR then vrbl skies. Areas fg them mainly 🌞 Sun. Shwrs/flurries Mon-Wed. Breezy at times/cool.
February 14, 2026 at 2:33 PM
Cold fnt trailg SW fm a wave ovr Nrn VI tdy drops SW thru #YVR. In its wake it cools sfc and aloft as a cold upr trough alg 140W this AM shifts E. Rain tapers to shwrs PM. Some clrg/chc fg ovnite. Shwrs/hier elev flurries Sat AM. Vrbl skies PM. Sunny/dry Sun. Vrbl skies/cool Mon-Tue chc flurries
February 13, 2026 at 2:38 PM
Cold fnt trailg SW fm a wave ovr Nrn VI tdy drops SW thru #YVR. In its wake it cools sfc and aloft as a cold upr trough alg 140W this AM shifts E. Rain tapers to shwrs PM. Some clrg/chc fg ovnite. Shwrs/hier elev flurries Sat AM. Vrbl skies PM. Sunny/dry Sun. Vrbl skies/cool Mon-Tue chc flurries
A hi lvl plume of cld drifts inland this AM but there is considerabl low cld in its wake so variably cldy tdy #YVR. A wave dvlpg 40N 155W lifts NE w/rain to SWBC this eve taperg Fri PM. Chc lgt shwrs wknd + cool as a cool upr trof evolves ovr the BC cst. Wintry precip even to sea lvl likely Mon-Tue
February 12, 2026 at 2:38 PM
A hi lvl plume of cld drifts inland this AM but there is considerabl low cld in its wake so variably cldy tdy #YVR. A wave dvlpg 40N 155W lifts NE w/rain to SWBC this eve taperg Fri PM. Chc lgt shwrs wknd + cool as a cool upr trof evolves ovr the BC cst. Wintry precip even to sea lvl likely Mon-Tue
Keeping my eye on Monday AM as the Canadian GEM mdl trends toward dropping a cold, convective upper trough overhead before dawn. Support pattern-wise from the Euro operational run (but it's not quite as cool/deep). If the GEM is correct it's a snowy Monday morning (but a public holiday 🛷)
February 11, 2026 at 3:55 PM
Keeping my eye on Monday AM as the Canadian GEM mdl trends toward dropping a cold, convective upper trough overhead before dawn. Support pattern-wise from the Euro operational run (but it's not quite as cool/deep). If the GEM is correct it's a snowy Monday morning (but a public holiday 🛷)
Finally a cooler than average pattern for the west, for the latter part of Feb (forecast 19-26th). A detailed look at the ensemble for the LM does not suggest exceptional cold, but rather just a few C below seasonable temps is the most likely scenario. With periodic wintry precip. Took a while! :)
February 11, 2026 at 2:14 PM
Finally a cooler than average pattern for the west, for the latter part of Feb (forecast 19-26th). A detailed look at the ensemble for the LM does not suggest exceptional cold, but rather just a few C below seasonable temps is the most likely scenario. With periodic wintry precip. Took a while! :)
Patchy fg this AM #YVR + cirrus as a plume offshr shifts E into an ovhd upr rdg. The rdg weakens the plume so clouds ltr tdy-Thu but dry. Rain Thu eve-Fri w/alpine snow as the nxt wv/cold fnt takes aim at the central cst. Wknd looks mainly dry w/vrbl skies, cooler. Chc wintry precip any day nxt wk.
February 11, 2026 at 2:05 PM
Patchy fg this AM #YVR + cirrus as a plume offshr shifts E into an ovhd upr rdg. The rdg weakens the plume so clouds ltr tdy-Thu but dry. Rain Thu eve-Fri w/alpine snow as the nxt wv/cold fnt takes aim at the central cst. Wknd looks mainly dry w/vrbl skies, cooler. Chc wintry precip any day nxt wk.
Ensembles settling on a week + of at times wintry weather for the lower mainland #YVR beginning on the weekend. Alpine snowpack the biggest beneficiary as mean atmospheric temperatures hover daily at lower levels right at the rain-snow borderline. If you took the snow tires off, put 'em back on :)
February 10, 2026 at 3:30 PM
Ensembles settling on a week + of at times wintry weather for the lower mainland #YVR beginning on the weekend. Alpine snowpack the biggest beneficiary as mean atmospheric temperatures hover daily at lower levels right at the rain-snow borderline. If you took the snow tires off, put 'em back on :)
Upr trof ovr SWBC slides E w/an upr rdg bldg in its wake this eve. Plume to the W tracks E, lifted by a vry deep sfc low dvlpg (40N 170W) at the base of a vast upr low SE of Ern Siberia. Shwrs taper this AM #YVR then vrbl skies. Chc AM fg but mainly 🌞Wed. Shwrs ovnite-Thu AM then cldy. Cold fnt/🌧️Fri
February 10, 2026 at 2:29 PM
Upr trof ovr SWBC slides E w/an upr rdg bldg in its wake this eve. Plume to the W tracks E, lifted by a vry deep sfc low dvlpg (40N 170W) at the base of a vast upr low SE of Ern Siberia. Shwrs taper this AM #YVR then vrbl skies. Chc AM fg but mainly 🌞Wed. Shwrs ovnite-Thu AM then cldy. Cold fnt/🌧️Fri
Cool upr low 52.5N 136.5W shifts ESE tracking inland ovr Srn BC Tue. In its wake an upr rdg blds onshore but is followed Thu by a moist flow fm the WSW, then by a sharper, cool upr trof thru Sun. Shwrs tdy taperg Tue AM #YVR. Areas AM fog then 🌞 Wed. More cld Thu. Rain Fri. Unsettled cool wknd.
February 9, 2026 at 2:49 PM
Cool upr low 52.5N 136.5W shifts ESE tracking inland ovr Srn BC Tue. In its wake an upr rdg blds onshore but is followed Thu by a moist flow fm the WSW, then by a sharper, cool upr trof thru Sun. Shwrs tdy taperg Tue AM #YVR. Areas AM fog then 🌞 Wed. More cld Thu. Rain Fri. Unsettled cool wknd.
Colorful house boats on a beautiful day in North Vancouver
February 8, 2026 at 8:23 PM
Colorful house boats on a beautiful day in North Vancouver
Longer range ensemble forecasts suggest an interval of cooler, unsettled weather coming up for the BC S coast later next wk and byd, w/potentially sizeable additions to the alpine snowpack and the chance, at times, of wintry weather reaching as low as sea level #YVR (and not missing #SFU at all).
February 8, 2026 at 3:11 PM
Vrbl skies tdy #YVR w/areas AM low cloud + the cirrus edge of the plume to the S. The plume shifts S as an upr trof trailng S from a low S of Haida Gwaii shifts E thru the day, phasing w/a vortmax 44.5N 135.5W over SWBC Mon AM. Clds + ovnite w/shwrs Mon taperg Tue AM. Ptchy AM fg then 🌞/dry Wed.
February 8, 2026 at 2:46 PM
Vrbl skies tdy #YVR w/areas AM low cloud + the cirrus edge of the plume to the S. The plume shifts S as an upr trof trailng S from a low S of Haida Gwaii shifts E thru the day, phasing w/a vortmax 44.5N 135.5W over SWBC Mon AM. Clds + ovnite w/shwrs Mon taperg Tue AM. Ptchy AM fg then 🌞/dry Wed.
Rain has arrived #YVR. Plume extnds well SW of HI. Luckily it drops S fairly quickly, followed by decreasing temps aloft in a SW flow as an upr low 49N 152 W sloly shifts E. So rain tdy, tapering PM. Some clrg ovnite w/areas AM fg Sun then partial sun. Mon/Tue unsettled/shwry. 🌞 Wed. 🌧️/wind Thu
February 7, 2026 at 2:44 PM
Rain has arrived #YVR. Plume extnds well SW of HI. Luckily it drops S fairly quickly, followed by decreasing temps aloft in a SW flow as an upr low 49N 152 W sloly shifts E. So rain tdy, tapering PM. Some clrg ovnite w/areas AM fg Sun then partial sun. Mon/Tue unsettled/shwry. 🌞 Wed. 🌧️/wind Thu
Fast line of ACC on radar, moving with the wind aloft. Dry beneath the clouds so should just be a virga producer or just a few drops
February 6, 2026 at 11:35 PM
Fast line of ACC on radar, moving with the wind aloft. Dry beneath the clouds so should just be a virga producer or just a few drops
The edge of some mid cloud approaches #YVR but enjoy what will be a lovely spring-like day before our return to the usual dismal pattern tomorrow
February 6, 2026 at 3:35 PM
The edge of some mid cloud approaches #YVR but enjoy what will be a lovely spring-like day before our return to the usual dismal pattern tomorrow
Vrbl skies tdy #YVR as a weak upr trough to the N drags thru SW flow aloft. Next plume of subtrop moisture to the SW lands on SWBC ovnite w/rain taperg to shwrs Sat PM as the plume slumps to the S. Thereafter, flow cools as a major upr low 48N 154 W shifts E. Vrbl skies Sun. Unsettled/cooler Mon-Thu
February 6, 2026 at 3:28 PM
Vrbl skies tdy #YVR as a weak upr trough to the N drags thru SW flow aloft. Next plume of subtrop moisture to the SW lands on SWBC ovnite w/rain taperg to shwrs Sat PM as the plume slumps to the S. Thereafter, flow cools as a major upr low 48N 154 W shifts E. Vrbl skies Sun. Unsettled/cooler Mon-Thu
View from near the summit of Pump Peak Mt Seymour Park today. In spite of the snow cover it was def T-shirt weather up there
February 6, 2026 at 12:59 AM
View from near the summit of Pump Peak Mt Seymour Park today. In spite of the snow cover it was def T-shirt weather up there