78 of the top 200 markets are back to pre-pandemic inventory.

• Most of those markets have seen prices slow, or even drop.

• Only 41 markets were at pre-pandemic inventory at the start of the year.

• 30 markets are at least 50% below pre-pandemic levels.

For context: Back in 2014 when I was training to be a Realtor I was taught that 3% year over year, on average, was typical. And to make sure to coach people to hold on to properties for a few years at least to make sure they didn't loose money on the purchase.

This data has broken my brain.

Expect to see tons of disinformation flying around this spring about the housing market.

Check your sources.
If you need to engage with it this spring make sure you’re following local data informed sources. Your county’s Realtor Association likely publishes numbers. Look at those, not clickbait

Homebuilder confidence really tanked this month. Especially notable is their view of the "next six months".

Toll just missed their numbers.

Housing Starts out tomorrow!

The most important thing I can tell everyone that I've learned from being a YouTuber who explains how stuff works is that each and every time I thought "this is common knowledge and doesn't need to be explained" I was wrong.

The National Association of Home Builders explains what happens if we make inputs for home construction, such as Canadian lumber, more expensive.

My heart is breaking for everyone who made their housing choices with the belief that they would be remote working (some or all of the time) only to have that suddenly changed.

The levels of disaster it can create for people just can not be underestimated. It’s cruel.

To anyone who needs help figuring out their housing choices in the Washington DC metro area - I’m a Democrat & local realtor with over a decade of experience helping people figure this stuff out. (I offer free initial consultations and will connect you with the right agent if it’s not me) DMs open

I don’t know how to square the “positive job numbers” with the fact that I know multiple people having very difficult, very long job searches right now.

Median Home Prices in the US from NAR

Median is the midpoint of the data set. So of every home sold in that area in that time, half of them were above this number and half below.

Q3 2024
with a monthly mortgage payment surpassing $8,000

the highest is Marin County, CA: $1,579,260

🧵⬇️

My latest on how insurance is emerging as the mechanism by which real estate will finally start to price in climate risk. www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...

Reading actionable things into housing market data is hard - because the action that needs to be taken is SO personal and micro market dependant.

I worry about people seeing headlines and thinking they have any real meaning for their personal choices.

For example: Inventory is down...

Watching the US housing market for the past 11 years has been wild.

Median sales price in Fairfax County VA
2014: mid $400's
2024: high $770's

I was taught that 3% growth in prices was "normal"
If that was what we'd had during my career so far, that would put us in the mid-high $500's now.