Dave Lauer
@dlauer.bsky.social
Changing how companies and shareholders engage at http://urvin.finance. Advocate for fair markets. Passionate about science & my kids. Believer in #WeTheInvestors.
https://linktr.ee/dlauer
https://linktr.ee/dlauer
However (related to my last post), the trend is not looking great.
The trend does not appear to be your friend sherwood.news/markets/us-u...
December 16, 2025 at 2:02 PM
However (related to my last post), the trend is not looking great.
Great overview of NFP release - overall stronger than expected, but not by much.
Okay so this is a mess to sort through but:
October NFP -105k
October private NFP +52k (Sep +104k post-revision)
November NFP +64k
November Private NFP +69k
UER 4.6% vs 4.5% expected (remember, this was likely biased higher).
Wage growth weaker than expected +0.1% MoM vs +0.3% expected for AHE.
October NFP -105k
October private NFP +52k (Sep +104k post-revision)
November NFP +64k
November Private NFP +69k
UER 4.6% vs 4.5% expected (remember, this was likely biased higher).
Wage growth weaker than expected +0.1% MoM vs +0.3% expected for AHE.
December 16, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Great overview of NFP release - overall stronger than expected, but not by much.
Tough to be a short seller these days.
November 10, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Tough to be a short seller these days.
Looks like there might be a deal to end the shutdown.
November 10, 2025 at 1:10 AM
Looks like there might be a deal to end the shutdown.
Reposted by Dave Lauer
BREAKING: The DC Circuit has *rejected* Trump's bid to fire Lisa Cook from the Fed board, allowing her to participate in tomorrow's interest-rate setting meeting.
Trump's last hope is a quick stay from SCOTUS. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Trump's last hope is a quick stay from SCOTUS. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
September 16, 2025 at 12:09 AM
BREAKING: The DC Circuit has *rejected* Trump's bid to fire Lisa Cook from the Fed board, allowing her to participate in tomorrow's interest-rate setting meeting.
Trump's last hope is a quick stay from SCOTUS. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Trump's last hope is a quick stay from SCOTUS. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
About to go live to talk about markets, $GME earnings, jobs data and more! Join us: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dg3k...
Let's Talk Markets Live 9/10/25: Talking market moves and $GME earnings!
YouTube video by Urvin
www.youtube.com
September 10, 2025 at 3:05 PM
About to go live to talk about markets, $GME earnings, jobs data and more! Join us: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dg3k...
According to @punchbowlnews.bsky.social, the White House is lobbying against a Senate bill to ban stock trading for members of Congress, the president and vice president. The Trump administration doesn’t agree with the ban on the president and VP. Quite the business model they've come up with here.
July 30, 2025 at 12:00 PM
According to @punchbowlnews.bsky.social, the White House is lobbying against a Senate bill to ban stock trading for members of Congress, the president and vice president. The Trump administration doesn’t agree with the ban on the president and VP. Quite the business model they've come up with here.
IEX has filed for a new options exchange, and the usual suspects are out with the same exact arguments they used 10 years ago against the equities exchange. They were wrong then, and they're wrong now. I wrote a comment letter: www.sec.gov/comments/sr-...
www.sec.gov
July 3, 2025 at 8:28 PM
IEX has filed for a new options exchange, and the usual suspects are out with the same exact arguments they used 10 years ago against the equities exchange. They were wrong then, and they're wrong now. I wrote a comment letter: www.sec.gov/comments/sr-...
Pretty interesting unemployment report today - unemployment comes in at 4.1%, better than expected, pushing out expectations of a Fed rate cut to September. But under the hood, it's a weird report!
July 3, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Pretty interesting unemployment report today - unemployment comes in at 4.1%, better than expected, pushing out expectations of a Fed rate cut to September. But under the hood, it's a weird report!
Talk macro and markets today at 1pm ET with @claudia-sahm.bsky.social and @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social, hope you can join us!
www.youtube.com/live/nVAEfXl...
www.youtube.com/live/nVAEfXl...
Let's Talk Markets Live 6/11/25: Macro and Markets with Claudia and Ophir
YouTube video by Urvin
www.youtube.com
June 11, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Talk macro and markets today at 1pm ET with @claudia-sahm.bsky.social and @ophirgottlieb.bsky.social, hope you can join us!
www.youtube.com/live/nVAEfXl...
www.youtube.com/live/nVAEfXl...
Simply flip the + to a - and boom! Deficit reduction!
*pinches bridge of nose*
*JOHNSON: TAX BILL WILL REDUCE DEFICIT, IF YOU DO THE MATH RIGHT
*JOHNSON: TAX BILL WILL REDUCE DEFICIT, IF YOU DO THE MATH RIGHT
May 29, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Simply flip the + to a - and boom! Deficit reduction!
WOW! Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe could be in the MLB Hall of Fame soon.
May 13, 2025 at 8:14 PM
WOW! Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe could be in the MLB Hall of Fame soon.
Looks like being an online troll has some consequences.
May 13, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Looks like being an online troll has some consequences.
Looking forward to Let's Talk Markets Live with BMLL Tech - we're going to dive deep into the data to understand what market data can tell us about tariffs, tick sizes and 24 hour trading. Join us at 2pm ET and let me know what questions we can answer!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI_4...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI_4...
Let's Talk Markets Live 5/8/25: Digging into the data with Elliot Banks from BMLL
YouTube video by Urvin
www.youtube.com
May 8, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Looking forward to Let's Talk Markets Live with BMLL Tech - we're going to dive deep into the data to understand what market data can tell us about tariffs, tick sizes and 24 hour trading. Join us at 2pm ET and let me know what questions we can answer!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI_4...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI_4...
Let's talk markets! I'm going live with Erik from Outlier Trading at 3pm ET to talk about what's been going on and where we think markets will head. What do you think? What are your questions? Let us know!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySx4...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySx4...
Let's Talk Markets Live 5/1/25: Talking Markets with Erik Smolinksi from Outlier Trading
YouTube video by Urvin
www.youtube.com
May 1, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Let's talk markets! I'm going live with Erik from Outlier Trading at 3pm ET to talk about what's been going on and where we think markets will head. What do you think? What are your questions? Let us know!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySx4...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySx4...
LOL Citadel is upset that brokers and asset managers don't want to trade with them, so they're telling the SEC to get rid of "private rooms" in ATSs.
April 30, 2025 at 4:16 PM
LOL Citadel is upset that brokers and asset managers don't want to trade with them, so they're telling the SEC to get rid of "private rooms" in ATSs.
Oof
JPMORGAN: “.. tariffs are expected to drive US core CPI up to 6.3%ar this quarter ..”
April 24, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Oof
Reposted by Dave Lauer
Last week the SEC held its 2nd crypto roundtable, on trading of crypto assets/securities. I participated & tried to focus on investor protection and moving trading to exchanges. Today at 2:30pm ET I'll be talking w/Richard Johnson from Texture Capital about it:
www.youtube.com/live/sSidND_...
www.youtube.com/live/sSidND_...
Let's Talk Markets Live 4/17/25: SEC Crypto Roundtable Review
YouTube video by Urvin
www.youtube.com
April 17, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Last week the SEC held its 2nd crypto roundtable, on trading of crypto assets/securities. I participated & tried to focus on investor protection and moving trading to exchanges. Today at 2:30pm ET I'll be talking w/Richard Johnson from Texture Capital about it:
www.youtube.com/live/sSidND_...
www.youtube.com/live/sSidND_...
Last week the SEC held its 2nd crypto roundtable, on trading of crypto assets/securities. I participated & tried to focus on investor protection and moving trading to exchanges. Today at 2:30pm ET I'll be talking w/Richard Johnson from Texture Capital about it:
www.youtube.com/live/sSidND_...
www.youtube.com/live/sSidND_...
Let's Talk Markets Live 4/17/25: SEC Crypto Roundtable Review
YouTube video by Urvin
www.youtube.com
April 17, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Last week the SEC held its 2nd crypto roundtable, on trading of crypto assets/securities. I participated & tried to focus on investor protection and moving trading to exchanges. Today at 2:30pm ET I'll be talking w/Richard Johnson from Texture Capital about it:
www.youtube.com/live/sSidND_...
www.youtube.com/live/sSidND_...
Check out the livestream at sec.gov today at 1pm for the crypto roundtable. I'm looking forward to talking about how to ensure investor protection and prevent market manipulation in crypto, while realizing the promise of this innovative technology.
SEC.gov | HomeLock
sec.gov
April 11, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Check out the livestream at sec.gov today at 1pm for the crypto roundtable. I'm looking forward to talking about how to ensure investor protection and prevent market manipulation in crypto, while realizing the promise of this innovative technology.
Reposted by Dave Lauer
It always boggles my mind that I, a journalist, am expressly forbidden from trading stocks, but members of Congress, with vastly greater knowledge of market-moving news, are allowed to profit by front-running markets, and so may profit by in essence stealing from the public they represent.
April 10, 2025 at 10:30 AM
It always boggles my mind that I, a journalist, am expressly forbidden from trading stocks, but members of Congress, with vastly greater knowledge of market-moving news, are allowed to profit by front-running markets, and so may profit by in essence stealing from the public they represent.
Just so we're all clear on where things actually stand at the moment.
If you weight 2024 imports by the 10%/"reciprocal" tariff amount announced last Wednesday (with China at 54%, Mexico/Canada at 0%), the total tariff rate would have been 21%. Today, with China at 125% and Mexico/Canada at 10% along with ~everybody else, the rate is 26%.
April 10, 2025 at 1:02 AM
Just so we're all clear on where things actually stand at the moment.
Atkins just confirmed by the Senate, the SEC has a new Chair.
April 9, 2025 at 11:53 PM
Atkins just confirmed by the Senate, the SEC has a new Chair.
One of the ideas that has been floating around is that the market crash will be good for refinancing the massive government debt coming due this year. But yields have gone UP, which means Treasuries are being sold off. US reserve currency status cracking? China dumping? Either way, not good.
if I'm understanding correctly, there is an extremely small, but non-zero, chance the U.S. financial system collapses today
www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
Treasury Rout Is Scariest Spectacle in Markets: Heard on the Street
The Treasury selloff that intensified late Tuesday and worsened overnight seems different. The spread between Treasury yields and rates on int
www.wsj.com
April 9, 2025 at 11:39 AM
One of the ideas that has been floating around is that the market crash will be good for refinancing the massive government debt coming due this year. But yields have gone UP, which means Treasuries are being sold off. US reserve currency status cracking? China dumping? Either way, not good.