Caroline Baxter
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convergingriskslab.bsky.social
Caroline Baxter
@convergingriskslab.bsky.social
Director, Converging Risks Lab, within the Council on Strategic Risks. Former DoD and RAND policy wonk.
Come for the foresight, stay for the fun.

https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/crl/
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Bluesky! Hello! I direct the Converging Risks Lab, part of the @councilonstrategicrisks.org. I work at the intersection of emerging tech, climate change, grand strategy, and national security/defense policy. You can read my latest below. Let's talk convergence.

www.justsecurity.org/121289/ai-hi...
AI’s Hidden National Security Cost
The same AI tools marketed as efficiency boosters could undermine the United States' ability to think critically and respond rapidly.
www.justsecurity.org
If the Trump Administration cares about America being “first” and all that connotes, then forcing the military to source its electricity from dying coal plants isn’t the way to go. The last time coal made up more than 40% of annual electricity generation was 2011. It can’t keep up with demand.
February 11, 2026 at 3:26 AM
Americans have tended to believe the US spends way more money on foreign aid than it does because of our effective soft power (surely we must be spending more than 1% of our budget to get this result). It was the cheapest form of influence there was. Everything else is more expensive & less durable.
people born in america probably don’t realize how cool america used to be. the death of US soft power is going to have long term consequences we are only beginning to see
February 11, 2026 at 12:35 AM
It may be small, but it's one of the consequences of I wrote about last year. "It is as impossible to perform only important experiments as it is impossible to only play winning lottery numbers. Trial and error isn't waste - it's the work."

councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/02/26/t...
February 10, 2026 at 9:39 PM
Bluesky! Hello! I direct the Converging Risks Lab, part of the @councilonstrategicrisks.org. I work at the intersection of emerging tech, climate change, grand strategy, and national security/defense policy. You can read my latest below. Let's talk convergence.

www.justsecurity.org/121289/ai-hi...
AI’s Hidden National Security Cost
The same AI tools marketed as efficiency boosters could undermine the United States' ability to think critically and respond rapidly.
www.justsecurity.org
February 10, 2026 at 9:18 PM
A whole lot of people who don't understand AI telling a whole lot of other people to use AI - all the time, without guardrails - is a recipe for disaster. DoD's approach of "any lawful use” without any constraints is particularly worrying.

www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...
Trump set off a surge of AI in the federal government. See what happened.
The Trump administration is accelerating AI adoption across government, embedding the technology in policing, health care, defense and science.
www.washingtonpost.com
February 10, 2026 at 9:08 PM