@clintballinger.bsky.social
(Short) book: https://app.thestorygraph.com/books/1f999e87-8e3c-40b4-8067-4741100ae1a5
Some random thoughts on economics https://clintballinger.wordpress.com/
Some random thoughts on economics https://clintballinger.wordpress.com/
Pinned
There is a pervasive, annoyingly simplistic, & neverending online debate: Libertarian/free market vs socialism/communism, as if these are stark choices 1/ #econsky
Reposted
The Intercept Is Where Causality Lives: A Structural Turn in Economics
Economics happens in the intercept
clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-interc... #econsky
Economics happens in the intercept
clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-interc... #econsky
The Intercept Is Where Causality Lives: A Structural Turn in Economics
Economics happens in the intercept
clintballinger.substack.com
January 2, 2026 at 1:57 PM
The Intercept Is Where Causality Lives: A Structural Turn in Economics
Economics happens in the intercept
clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-interc... #econsky
Economics happens in the intercept
clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-interc... #econsky
This post introduces the non-scalable intercept – a coordination threshold in network industries crossed only once without destroying value.
January 10, 2026 at 3:06 AM
This post introduces the non-scalable intercept – a coordination threshold in network industries crossed only once without destroying value.
Reposted
À LA RECHERCHE DE DÉBATS PERDUS
Modeling terms and what earlier economists debated, and later ones forgot
How model-setup language structures economic analysis
clintballinger.substack.com/p/a-la-reche... #econsky
Modeling terms and what earlier economists debated, and later ones forgot
How model-setup language structures economic analysis
clintballinger.substack.com/p/a-la-reche... #econsky
'À la recherche de débats perdus': Modeling terms and what earlier economists debated, and later ones forgot
How model-setup language structures economic analysis
clintballinger.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 1:32 AM
À LA RECHERCHE DE DÉBATS PERDUS
Modeling terms and what earlier economists debated, and later ones forgot
How model-setup language structures economic analysis
clintballinger.substack.com/p/a-la-reche... #econsky
Modeling terms and what earlier economists debated, and later ones forgot
How model-setup language structures economic analysis
clintballinger.substack.com/p/a-la-reche... #econsky
Reposted
The Non-Scalable Intercept: When Networks Defy Antitrust
Thresholds that create markets, not margins
clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-non-sc... #econsky
Thresholds that create markets, not margins
clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-non-sc... #econsky
The Non-Scalable Intercept: When Networks Defy Antitrust
Thresholds that create markets, not margins
clintballinger.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 12:56 PM
The Non-Scalable Intercept: When Networks Defy Antitrust
Thresholds that create markets, not margins
clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-non-sc... #econsky
Thresholds that create markets, not margins
clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-non-sc... #econsky
The Non-Scalable Intercept: When Networks Defy Antitrust
Thresholds that create markets, not margins
clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-non-sc... #econsky
Thresholds that create markets, not margins
clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-non-sc... #econsky
The Non-Scalable Intercept: When Networks Defy Antitrust
Thresholds that create markets, not margins
clintballinger.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 12:56 PM
The Non-Scalable Intercept: When Networks Defy Antitrust
Thresholds that create markets, not margins
clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-non-sc... #econsky
Thresholds that create markets, not margins
clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-non-sc... #econsky
À LA RECHERCHE DE DÉBATS PERDUS
Modeling terms and what earlier economists debated, and later ones forgot
How model-setup language structures economic analysis
clintballinger.substack.com/p/a-la-reche... #econsky
Modeling terms and what earlier economists debated, and later ones forgot
How model-setup language structures economic analysis
clintballinger.substack.com/p/a-la-reche... #econsky
'À la recherche de débats perdus': Modeling terms and what earlier economists debated, and later ones forgot
How model-setup language structures economic analysis
clintballinger.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 1:32 AM
À LA RECHERCHE DE DÉBATS PERDUS
Modeling terms and what earlier economists debated, and later ones forgot
How model-setup language structures economic analysis
clintballinger.substack.com/p/a-la-reche... #econsky
Modeling terms and what earlier economists debated, and later ones forgot
How model-setup language structures economic analysis
clintballinger.substack.com/p/a-la-reche... #econsky
"À la recherche de débats perdus": how model setup language structures economic analysis
A sampling of standard modeling phrases and what earlier economists debated and later ones forgot
clintballinger.substack.com/p/a-la-reche... #econsky
A sampling of standard modeling phrases and what earlier economists debated and later ones forgot
clintballinger.substack.com/p/a-la-reche... #econsky
"À la recherche de débats perdus": how model setup language structures economic analysis
A sampling of stock modeling phrases and what earlier economists debated and later ones forgot
clintballinger.substack.com
January 8, 2026 at 1:25 PM
"À la recherche de débats perdus": how model setup language structures economic analysis
A sampling of standard modeling phrases and what earlier economists debated and later ones forgot
clintballinger.substack.com/p/a-la-reche... #econsky
A sampling of standard modeling phrases and what earlier economists debated and later ones forgot
clintballinger.substack.com/p/a-la-reche... #econsky
Reposted
Before Identification and Inference: Where the Causal Claim Enters
clintballinger.substack.com/p/before-ide... #econsky
clintballinger.substack.com/p/before-ide... #econsky
Before Identification and Inference: Where the Causal Claim Enters
Several recent posts by Carlos Chavez are on themes close to my recent posts on causality, quasi-experiments etc.
clintballinger.substack.com
January 7, 2026 at 5:43 PM
Before Identification and Inference: Where the Causal Claim Enters
clintballinger.substack.com/p/before-ide... #econsky
clintballinger.substack.com/p/before-ide... #econsky
Before Identification and Inference: Where the Causal Claim Enters
clintballinger.substack.com/p/before-ide... #econsky
clintballinger.substack.com/p/before-ide... #econsky
Before Identification and Inference: Where the Causal Claim Enters
Several recent posts by Carlos Chavez are on themes close to my recent posts on causality, quasi-experiments etc.
clintballinger.substack.com
January 7, 2026 at 5:43 PM
Before Identification and Inference: Where the Causal Claim Enters
clintballinger.substack.com/p/before-ide... #econsky
clintballinger.substack.com/p/before-ide... #econsky
Reposted
Zero Is Not a Floor. It Is the Foundation.
Why the Decline in r* Signals Progress, Not Stagnation
clintballinger.substack.com/p/zero-is-no... #econsky
Why the Decline in r* Signals Progress, Not Stagnation
clintballinger.substack.com/p/zero-is-no... #econsky
Zero Is Not a Floor. It Is the Foundation.
Why the Decline in r* Signals Progress, Not Stagnation
clintballinger.substack.com
January 2, 2026 at 2:30 AM
Zero Is Not a Floor. It Is the Foundation.
Why the Decline in r* Signals Progress, Not Stagnation
clintballinger.substack.com/p/zero-is-no... #econsky
Why the Decline in r* Signals Progress, Not Stagnation
clintballinger.substack.com/p/zero-is-no... #econsky
Reposted
Causality in applied economics doesn’t come from estimators, asymptotics, or robustness checks. It enters earlier - when the design defines the baseline and the shock.
Everything else just measures it.
#econsky open.substack.com/pub/clintbal...
Everything else just measures it.
#econsky open.substack.com/pub/clintbal...
Your Research Design IS Your Causal Statement (It was never the estimator)
What Quasi-Experiments Actually Do
open.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 1:52 PM
Causality in applied economics doesn’t come from estimators, asymptotics, or robustness checks. It enters earlier - when the design defines the baseline and the shock.
Everything else just measures it.
#econsky open.substack.com/pub/clintbal...
Everything else just measures it.
#econsky open.substack.com/pub/clintbal...
Causality in applied economics doesn’t come from estimators, asymptotics, or robustness checks. It enters earlier - when the design defines the baseline and the shock.
Everything else just measures it.
#econsky open.substack.com/pub/clintbal...
Everything else just measures it.
#econsky open.substack.com/pub/clintbal...
Your Research Design IS Your Causal Statement (It was never the estimator)
What Quasi-Experiments Actually Do
open.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 1:52 PM
Causality in applied economics doesn’t come from estimators, asymptotics, or robustness checks. It enters earlier - when the design defines the baseline and the shock.
Everything else just measures it.
#econsky open.substack.com/pub/clintbal...
Everything else just measures it.
#econsky open.substack.com/pub/clintbal...
The Intercept Is Where Causality Lives: A Structural Turn in Economics
Economics happens in the intercept
clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-interc... #econsky
Economics happens in the intercept
clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-interc... #econsky
The Intercept Is Where Causality Lives: A Structural Turn in Economics
Economics happens in the intercept
clintballinger.substack.com
January 2, 2026 at 1:57 PM
The Intercept Is Where Causality Lives: A Structural Turn in Economics
Economics happens in the intercept
clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-interc... #econsky
Economics happens in the intercept
clintballinger.substack.com/p/the-interc... #econsky
Zero Is Not a Floor. It Is the Foundation.
Why the Decline in r* Signals Progress, Not Stagnation
clintballinger.substack.com/p/zero-is-no... #econsky
Why the Decline in r* Signals Progress, Not Stagnation
clintballinger.substack.com/p/zero-is-no... #econsky
Zero Is Not a Floor. It Is the Foundation.
Why the Decline in r* Signals Progress, Not Stagnation
clintballinger.substack.com
January 2, 2026 at 2:30 AM
Zero Is Not a Floor. It Is the Foundation.
Why the Decline in r* Signals Progress, Not Stagnation
clintballinger.substack.com/p/zero-is-no... #econsky
Why the Decline in r* Signals Progress, Not Stagnation
clintballinger.substack.com/p/zero-is-no... #econsky
The Defector’s Dividend: Administered Rates and the Corruption of the Global Price
"Interest rates are a price, not a policy vector
When we ask them to stabilize employment, inflation, FX, asset prices, and inequality, they cease to function as prices at all"
substack.com/@clintballin... #econsky
"Interest rates are a price, not a policy vector
When we ask them to stabilize employment, inflation, FX, asset prices, and inequality, they cease to function as prices at all"
substack.com/@clintballin... #econsky
The Defector’s Dividend: Administered Rates and the Corruption of the Global Price
Interest rates are a price, not a policy vector.
substack.com
December 30, 2025 at 11:43 AM
The Defector’s Dividend: Administered Rates and the Corruption of the Global Price
"Interest rates are a price, not a policy vector
When we ask them to stabilize employment, inflation, FX, asset prices, and inequality, they cease to function as prices at all"
substack.com/@clintballin... #econsky
"Interest rates are a price, not a policy vector
When we ask them to stabilize employment, inflation, FX, asset prices, and inequality, they cease to function as prices at all"
substack.com/@clintballin... #econsky
@nathantankus.bsky.social You probably have already read/seen this but just in case. Looks interesting sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/1...
How Monetary Policy Is Made: Lessons from Historical FOMC Discussions
sites.utexas.edu
December 27, 2025 at 4:23 AM
@nathantankus.bsky.social You probably have already read/seen this but just in case. Looks interesting sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/1...
Reposted
“Assume interiority conditions”
A technical convenience- Requires everyone consumes positive amounts and remains in the market.
Absolute deprivation, exclusion, and starvation as equilibrium outcomes become impossible by assumption
A technical convenience- Requires everyone consumes positive amounts and remains in the market.
Absolute deprivation, exclusion, and starvation as equilibrium outcomes become impossible by assumption
December 18, 2025 at 12:59 PM
“Assume interiority conditions”
A technical convenience- Requires everyone consumes positive amounts and remains in the market.
Absolute deprivation, exclusion, and starvation as equilibrium outcomes become impossible by assumption
A technical convenience- Requires everyone consumes positive amounts and remains in the market.
Absolute deprivation, exclusion, and starvation as equilibrium outcomes become impossible by assumption
Reposted
“Without loss of generality, normalize…”
Lossless for whom? Normalization fixes the unit of account- what everything else is measured against - anchoring reference points and binding constraints before optimization begins.
Just “WLOG” though
Lossless for whom? Normalization fixes the unit of account- what everything else is measured against - anchoring reference points and binding constraints before optimization begins.
Just “WLOG” though
December 18, 2025 at 12:59 PM
“Without loss of generality, normalize…”
Lossless for whom? Normalization fixes the unit of account- what everything else is measured against - anchoring reference points and binding constraints before optimization begins.
Just “WLOG” though
Lossless for whom? Normalization fixes the unit of account- what everything else is measured against - anchoring reference points and binding constraints before optimization begins.
Just “WLOG” though
Reposted
“Assume a complete probability space”
Every outcome must have an assignable probability. This replaces Knightian uncertainty, regime change, and genuine unknowability w calculable risk.
What can’t be priced simply vanishes
Every outcome must have an assignable probability. This replaces Knightian uncertainty, regime change, and genuine unknowability w calculable risk.
What can’t be priced simply vanishes
December 18, 2025 at 12:59 PM
“Assume a complete probability space”
Every outcome must have an assignable probability. This replaces Knightian uncertainty, regime change, and genuine unknowability w calculable risk.
What can’t be priced simply vanishes
Every outcome must have an assignable probability. This replaces Knightian uncertainty, regime change, and genuine unknowability w calculable risk.
What can’t be priced simply vanishes
Central banks must tighten more than models predict because multiple offsetting channels taken together weaken transmission. I think there should be a clearer term for this. I suggest:
“Fundamental overshoot bias”
1/2
#econsky
“Fundamental overshoot bias”
1/2
#econsky
December 22, 2025 at 5:22 AM
Central banks must tighten more than models predict because multiple offsetting channels taken together weaken transmission. I think there should be a clearer term for this. I suggest:
“Fundamental overshoot bias”
1/2
#econsky
“Fundamental overshoot bias”
1/2
#econsky
Reposted
“With the usual transversality condition…”
“Usual” for whom? Boundary condtion requires the present value of terminal assets go to zero. Rules out debt monetization as equilibrium & perpetual rollover.
Austerity appears as mathematical necessity rather than political choice
“Usual” for whom? Boundary condtion requires the present value of terminal assets go to zero. Rules out debt monetization as equilibrium & perpetual rollover.
Austerity appears as mathematical necessity rather than political choice
December 18, 2025 at 12:59 PM
“With the usual transversality condition…”
“Usual” for whom? Boundary condtion requires the present value of terminal assets go to zero. Rules out debt monetization as equilibrium & perpetual rollover.
Austerity appears as mathematical necessity rather than political choice
“Usual” for whom? Boundary condtion requires the present value of terminal assets go to zero. Rules out debt monetization as equilibrium & perpetual rollover.
Austerity appears as mathematical necessity rather than political choice
Reposted
“Assume preferences satisfy Gorman polar form”
Sounds like a technical aggregation condition. It requires linear income effects, distribution-independent demand, and redistribution neutrality
A strong political claim enters as a theorem
Sounds like a technical aggregation condition. It requires linear income effects, distribution-independent demand, and redistribution neutrality
A strong political claim enters as a theorem
December 18, 2025 at 12:59 PM
“Assume preferences satisfy Gorman polar form”
Sounds like a technical aggregation condition. It requires linear income effects, distribution-independent demand, and redistribution neutrality
A strong political claim enters as a theorem
Sounds like a technical aggregation condition. It requires linear income effects, distribution-independent demand, and redistribution neutrality
A strong political claim enters as a theorem
Reposted
“Calibrate parameters to match long-run moments”
Sounds purely empirical. But calibration treats observed distributions as benchmarks the model must reproduce, anchoring it to existing inequality.
History becomes validation rather than an object of explanation
Sounds purely empirical. But calibration treats observed distributions as benchmarks the model must reproduce, anchoring it to existing inequality.
History becomes validation rather than an object of explanation
December 18, 2025 at 12:59 PM
“Calibrate parameters to match long-run moments”
Sounds purely empirical. But calibration treats observed distributions as benchmarks the model must reproduce, anchoring it to existing inequality.
History becomes validation rather than an object of explanation
Sounds purely empirical. But calibration treats observed distributions as benchmarks the model must reproduce, anchoring it to existing inequality.
History becomes validation rather than an object of explanation
Reposted
"Under standard Inada conditions…”
Standard according to which world?
These conditions rule out subsistence constraints, zero marginal product of capital, poverty traps, and hard resource limits.
Entire development paths disappear under “regularity”
Standard according to which world?
These conditions rule out subsistence constraints, zero marginal product of capital, poverty traps, and hard resource limits.
Entire development paths disappear under “regularity”
December 18, 2025 at 12:59 PM
"Under standard Inada conditions…”
Standard according to which world?
These conditions rule out subsistence constraints, zero marginal product of capital, poverty traps, and hard resource limits.
Entire development paths disappear under “regularity”
Standard according to which world?
These conditions rule out subsistence constraints, zero marginal product of capital, poverty traps, and hard resource limits.
Entire development paths disappear under “regularity”
Reposted
One more example that I also mean to suggest how *over time* formalization absorbed previously contested questions into background conditions:
“Assume lump-sum transfers are available / solve the planner’s problem / assume the Second Welfare Theorem applies”
...
“Assume lump-sum transfers are available / solve the planner’s problem / assume the Second Welfare Theorem applies”
...
December 18, 2025 at 12:59 PM
One more example that I also mean to suggest how *over time* formalization absorbed previously contested questions into background conditions:
“Assume lump-sum transfers are available / solve the planner’s problem / assume the Second Welfare Theorem applies”
...
“Assume lump-sum transfers are available / solve the planner’s problem / assume the Second Welfare Theorem applies”
...