x.com/chrisschmitz
@chrisschmitz.bsky.social
Now, at 0900Z on the 23rd of January, the Carrier Strike Group 3 should approximately be around the displayed position closing in on the Gulf of Oman.
SE Iran is already in Range of Tomahawk (orange) in the Strike Group, air assets would require land based tanker assistance.
SE Iran is already in Range of Tomahawk (orange) in the Strike Group, air assets would require land based tanker assistance.
January 23, 2026 at 9:07 AM
Now, at 0900Z on the 23rd of January, the Carrier Strike Group 3 should approximately be around the displayed position closing in on the Gulf of Oman.
SE Iran is already in Range of Tomahawk (orange) in the Strike Group, air assets would require land based tanker assistance.
SE Iran is already in Range of Tomahawk (orange) in the Strike Group, air assets would require land based tanker assistance.
Circling back to my simulation of the US Carrier Strike Group towards Iran, it should be past India right now:
January 22, 2026 at 1:13 PM
Circling back to my simulation of the US Carrier Strike Group towards Iran, it should be past India right now:
Here is my hypothesis of the arrival of the CSG3 to Iran, based off its currently known position.
TL;DR: Saturday local time, so Ops probably Sat/Sun night.
We have simulated::
- a speed of 18kt in the Malacca Straights, actual observed speed.
- a cruise of 25kt
- two UNREP at 15kt for 4-6h
TL;DR: Saturday local time, so Ops probably Sat/Sun night.
We have simulated::
- a speed of 18kt in the Malacca Straights, actual observed speed.
- a cruise of 25kt
- two UNREP at 15kt for 4-6h
US Carrier Strike Group arrival Near Iran: Realistic Simulation Predicts Saturday Local Time
YouTube video by chrisschmitz_osint
www.youtube.com
January 19, 2026 at 12:54 AM
Here is my hypothesis of the arrival of the CSG3 to Iran, based off its currently known position.
TL;DR: Saturday local time, so Ops probably Sat/Sun night.
We have simulated::
- a speed of 18kt in the Malacca Straights, actual observed speed.
- a cruise of 25kt
- two UNREP at 15kt for 4-6h
TL;DR: Saturday local time, so Ops probably Sat/Sun night.
We have simulated::
- a speed of 18kt in the Malacca Straights, actual observed speed.
- a cruise of 25kt
- two UNREP at 15kt for 4-6h
Here we go.
DDG-112 is leading the formation, followed by DDG-111, then the Lincoln and DDG-98 is at the end of the line.
Currently moving at approx 18kts into the Singapore Straights.
The Fleet Oiler is behind a dozen nm or so.
DDG-112 is leading the formation, followed by DDG-111, then the Lincoln and DDG-98 is at the end of the line.
Currently moving at approx 18kts into the Singapore Straights.
The Fleet Oiler is behind a dozen nm or so.
January 18, 2026 at 12:31 PM
Here we go.
DDG-112 is leading the formation, followed by DDG-111, then the Lincoln and DDG-98 is at the end of the line.
Currently moving at approx 18kts into the Singapore Straights.
The Fleet Oiler is behind a dozen nm or so.
DDG-112 is leading the formation, followed by DDG-111, then the Lincoln and DDG-98 is at the end of the line.
Currently moving at approx 18kts into the Singapore Straights.
The Fleet Oiler is behind a dozen nm or so.
January 18, 2026 at 11:04 AM
I have simulated the traveltimes of two US Carrier Strike Groups towards the "Iranian AO".
See the results on this quick "1 take" video.
TL;DR earliest expected arrival January 20th and 22nd, escorts will require UNREP.
See the results on this quick "1 take" video.
TL;DR earliest expected arrival January 20th and 22nd, escorts will require UNREP.
Simulation of timelines for US CSG moving towards Iran for Strikes against the Regime
YouTube video by OSINT-cschmitz
www.youtube.com
January 15, 2026 at 3:06 PM
I have simulated the traveltimes of two US Carrier Strike Groups towards the "Iranian AO".
See the results on this quick "1 take" video.
TL;DR earliest expected arrival January 20th and 22nd, escorts will require UNREP.
See the results on this quick "1 take" video.
TL;DR earliest expected arrival January 20th and 22nd, escorts will require UNREP.
Just created this "up to date" Infographic showing the "current state of global affairs".
January 15, 2026 at 12:01 AM
Just created this "up to date" Infographic showing the "current state of global affairs".
Berlin has a problem with Eco-Terror:
March 2024: Sabotage against High Voltage lines
September 2025: Sabotage against 100kV line
January 2026: Sabotage against HV cable bridge
March 2024: Sabotage against High Voltage lines
September 2025: Sabotage against 100kV line
January 2026: Sabotage against HV cable bridge
January 4, 2026 at 5:41 PM
Berlin has a problem with Eco-Terror:
March 2024: Sabotage against High Voltage lines
September 2025: Sabotage against 100kV line
January 2026: Sabotage against HV cable bridge
March 2024: Sabotage against High Voltage lines
September 2025: Sabotage against 100kV line
January 2026: Sabotage against HV cable bridge
Nothing is as shockingly naive, as the "European Commentators and Politicians" who thought that "the international rules" are worth anything without "the enforcer".
USA gave you a warning, CN+RU started the games, time to grow up, Europe.
USA gave you a warning, CN+RU started the games, time to grow up, Europe.
January 3, 2026 at 7:07 PM
Nothing is as shockingly naive, as the "European Commentators and Politicians" who thought that "the international rules" are worth anything without "the enforcer".
USA gave you a warning, CN+RU started the games, time to grow up, Europe.
USA gave you a warning, CN+RU started the games, time to grow up, Europe.
Hello IvanATC, this is JAKE37 operating under IDGAF, sorry, due regard.
October 14, 2025 at 11:09 AM
Hello IvanATC, this is JAKE37 operating under IDGAF, sorry, due regard.
It could well be that we have another run of a UK RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint (Airseeker) into the Black Sea.
Since the incident of a Russian Fighter almost shooting one down, these missions will usually feature a fighter cover by a NATO state.
RRR7207/ZZ664/43C38C
Since the incident of a Russian Fighter almost shooting one down, these missions will usually feature a fighter cover by a NATO state.
RRR7207/ZZ664/43C38C
October 7, 2025 at 11:15 AM
It could well be that we have another run of a UK RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint (Airseeker) into the Black Sea.
Since the incident of a Russian Fighter almost shooting one down, these missions will usually feature a fighter cover by a NATO state.
RRR7207/ZZ664/43C38C
Since the incident of a Russian Fighter almost shooting one down, these missions will usually feature a fighter cover by a NATO state.
RRR7207/ZZ664/43C38C
Turkish Air Force E-7 Wedgetail on approach to ETNG after a mission defending NATO from Russia over the baltics.
September 30, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Turkish Air Force E-7 Wedgetail on approach to ETNG after a mission defending NATO from Russia over the baltics.
v1 of the Command "Radar Detection Grid."
From bottom to top:
F-22, J-20B, SU-57, S-70, Orlan UAV, Drone, Shahed-129, GJ-11, J-35A, F-35A and...
Can you guess the Top Row?
Radar Platforms used: E-7, E-3 and A-50U. cc @dimitrisd.bsky.social
From bottom to top:
F-22, J-20B, SU-57, S-70, Orlan UAV, Drone, Shahed-129, GJ-11, J-35A, F-35A and...
Can you guess the Top Row?
Radar Platforms used: E-7, E-3 and A-50U. cc @dimitrisd.bsky.social
September 26, 2025 at 4:51 PM
v1 of the Command "Radar Detection Grid."
From bottom to top:
F-22, J-20B, SU-57, S-70, Orlan UAV, Drone, Shahed-129, GJ-11, J-35A, F-35A and...
Can you guess the Top Row?
Radar Platforms used: E-7, E-3 and A-50U. cc @dimitrisd.bsky.social
From bottom to top:
F-22, J-20B, SU-57, S-70, Orlan UAV, Drone, Shahed-129, GJ-11, J-35A, F-35A and...
Can you guess the Top Row?
Radar Platforms used: E-7, E-3 and A-50U. cc @dimitrisd.bsky.social
This is unprecedented activity, especially for a Friday afternoon.
We have four confirmed aerial refueling areas across the North Sea, Northern Germany, Poland, Baltic Ocean and Baltics.
There is significant presence of Anti Submarine and ISR units, multiple CAP likely active.
We have four confirmed aerial refueling areas across the North Sea, Northern Germany, Poland, Baltic Ocean and Baltics.
There is significant presence of Anti Submarine and ISR units, multiple CAP likely active.
September 26, 2025 at 11:52 AM
This is unprecedented activity, especially for a Friday afternoon.
We have four confirmed aerial refueling areas across the North Sea, Northern Germany, Poland, Baltic Ocean and Baltics.
There is significant presence of Anti Submarine and ISR units, multiple CAP likely active.
We have four confirmed aerial refueling areas across the North Sea, Northern Germany, Poland, Baltic Ocean and Baltics.
There is significant presence of Anti Submarine and ISR units, multiple CAP likely active.
Sneak preview of Emissions and Radar Resolution testing of E-7 Wedgetail vs E-3 RISP AWACS.
Targets include commercial drones, Orlan, Shahed, GJ-11, J-35, Su-57 and will be expanded later.
Targets include commercial drones, Orlan, Shahed, GJ-11, J-35, Su-57 and will be expanded later.
September 26, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Sneak preview of Emissions and Radar Resolution testing of E-7 Wedgetail vs E-3 RISP AWACS.
Targets include commercial drones, Orlan, Shahed, GJ-11, J-35, Su-57 and will be expanded later.
Targets include commercial drones, Orlan, Shahed, GJ-11, J-35, Su-57 and will be expanded later.
Ukrainian AN-72 Coaler directly flying into polish Airspace.
Notice that he ways flying at FL200 in Ukraine. This means that Russia has no way to touch it there.
Possibly from the Ivano-Frankivsk area.
VERY unusual.
globe.adsb.fi?icao=508072
Notice that he ways flying at FL200 in Ukraine. This means that Russia has no way to touch it there.
Possibly from the Ivano-Frankivsk area.
VERY unusual.
globe.adsb.fi?icao=508072
September 25, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Ukrainian AN-72 Coaler directly flying into polish Airspace.
Notice that he ways flying at FL200 in Ukraine. This means that Russia has no way to touch it there.
Possibly from the Ivano-Frankivsk area.
VERY unusual.
globe.adsb.fi?icao=508072
Notice that he ways flying at FL200 in Ukraine. This means that Russia has no way to touch it there.
Possibly from the Ivano-Frankivsk area.
VERY unusual.
globe.adsb.fi?icao=508072
USAF Europe Base Spangdahlem is currently having an Italian 767 Tanker and a Priority coded C5M on approach.
Both are rather unusual.
globe.adsb.fi?icao=33fe77,...
Both are rather unusual.
globe.adsb.fi?icao=33fe77,...
September 25, 2025 at 1:39 PM
USAF Europe Base Spangdahlem is currently having an Italian 767 Tanker and a Priority coded C5M on approach.
Both are rather unusual.
globe.adsb.fi?icao=33fe77,...
Both are rather unusual.
globe.adsb.fi?icao=33fe77,...
Summary of Hypothesis on this week, it can be VERY escalatory, let me explain:
Current events are NOT going to slow down until Sunday.
Sunday is the election of Moldova, one that Russia heavily tried to influence with intelligence operations.
Thread:
Current events are NOT going to slow down until Sunday.
Sunday is the election of Moldova, one that Russia heavily tried to influence with intelligence operations.
Thread:
September 25, 2025 at 8:44 AM
Summary of Hypothesis on this week, it can be VERY escalatory, let me explain:
Current events are NOT going to slow down until Sunday.
Sunday is the election of Moldova, one that Russia heavily tried to influence with intelligence operations.
Thread:
Current events are NOT going to slow down until Sunday.
Sunday is the election of Moldova, one that Russia heavily tried to influence with intelligence operations.
Thread:
"Foxhound Inbound", a military grade simulation of the incursions of 3x Russian MIG-31 into Estonian Airspace on September 19th, 2025.
We also analyze IF they could have been shot down, given the "robust" Doctrine in place now.
youtu.be/pdwjtz_fAA8
We also analyze IF they could have been shot down, given the "robust" Doctrine in place now.
youtu.be/pdwjtz_fAA8
"Foxhound Inbound", a military grade simulation of 3x Russian MIG-31 into Estonia Sep. 19th, 2025.
YouTube video by OSINT-cschmitz
youtu.be
September 24, 2025 at 7:16 PM
"Foxhound Inbound", a military grade simulation of the incursions of 3x Russian MIG-31 into Estonian Airspace on September 19th, 2025.
We also analyze IF they could have been shot down, given the "robust" Doctrine in place now.
youtu.be/pdwjtz_fAA8
We also analyze IF they could have been shot down, given the "robust" Doctrine in place now.
youtu.be/pdwjtz_fAA8
E-3A Sentry NATO001 and USAF KC-135 61-0290 on their way to protecting the NATO Skies.
September 16, 2025 at 10:29 AM
E-3A Sentry NATO001 and USAF KC-135 61-0290 on their way to protecting the NATO Skies.
Typhoon Hungry.
Need Food, Flankers please.
Need Food, Flankers please.
July 31, 2025 at 10:17 AM
Typhoon Hungry.
Need Food, Flankers please.
Need Food, Flankers please.
The catch of the day.
Two 4-letter RCH C-17 seperated by about a minute descending to Ramstein.
Two 4-letter RCH C-17 seperated by about a minute descending to Ramstein.
July 20, 2025 at 6:44 PM
The catch of the day.
Two 4-letter RCH C-17 seperated by about a minute descending to Ramstein.
Two 4-letter RCH C-17 seperated by about a minute descending to Ramstein.
Attention Spotters/OSINT:
The German Army will conduct very low level helicopter operations in the area marked red between the 8th and 10th of July, down to 3m AGL.
The German Air Force will conduct Eurofighter/Tornado operations in the area marked purple during the same times, down to 150m AGL.
The German Army will conduct very low level helicopter operations in the area marked red between the 8th and 10th of July, down to 3m AGL.
The German Air Force will conduct Eurofighter/Tornado operations in the area marked purple during the same times, down to 150m AGL.
July 6, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Attention Spotters/OSINT:
The German Army will conduct very low level helicopter operations in the area marked red between the 8th and 10th of July, down to 3m AGL.
The German Air Force will conduct Eurofighter/Tornado operations in the area marked purple during the same times, down to 150m AGL.
The German Army will conduct very low level helicopter operations in the area marked red between the 8th and 10th of July, down to 3m AGL.
The German Air Force will conduct Eurofighter/Tornado operations in the area marked purple during the same times, down to 150m AGL.
Quite the interesting combination of Patterns.
I am sure that NL Spotters are having a field day.
I am sure that NL Spotters are having a field day.
June 24, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Quite the interesting combination of Patterns.
I am sure that NL Spotters are having a field day.
I am sure that NL Spotters are having a field day.