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Box Office Theory
@boxofficetheory.com
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- SUBSCRIBE: http://boxofficetheory.substack.com
- Theatrical Box Office Forecasts, Tracking, & Consulting
- Home of the BOT Forums
- Founded by @ShawnRobbins
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boxofficetheory.com
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: #AvatarFireAndAsh ($95M+) Updates, Early Forecasts for 28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE, GREENLAND 2, PRIMATE, and SOULM8TE

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#Avatar #28YearsLater #BoxOffice
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH ($95M+) Updates, Early Forecasts for 28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE, GREENLAND 2, PRIMATE, and SOULM8TE
2025's final weeks are coming into shape with expected volatility, while January 2026 looks like another up-and-down post-holiday market.
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December 5, 2025 at 5:27 PM
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#BoxOffice Weekend Forecast: FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY’S 2 ($44M+) and ZOOTOPIA 2 Set for Animatronics vs. Animals Battle Royale to Start December

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#fnaf2 #FNAFMovie #FNAF #Zootopia2 #WickedForGood
Box Office Weekend Forecast: FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY’S 2 ($44M+) and ZOOTOPIA 2 Set for Animatronics vs. Animals Battle Royale to Start December
Universal and Disney may be in for a weekend-long battle to determine who comes out on top of the box office to begin 2025's final month.
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December 3, 2025 at 5:35 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: ZOOTOPIA 2 ($125-140M+ 5-Day) and WICKED: FOR GOOD ($85-100M+) Set to Haul a Thanksgiving Feast

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#Zootopia2 #WickedForGood #BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: ZOOTOPIA 2 ($125-140M+ 5-Day) and WICKED: FOR GOOD ($85-100M+) Set to Haul a Thanksgiving Feast
It'll be impossible to match last year's record Thanksgiving corridor, but theaters and movie fans still have plenty to be thankful for on this long holiday weekend.
boxofficetheory.substack.com
November 25, 2025 at 11:32 PM
boxofficetheory.com
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: #Zootopia2 Updates, #FNAF2 ($35M+) and #AvatarFireAndAsh ($95M+) Pacing Off from Predecessors, & More Updates

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#FNAF #FiveNightsAttFreddys2 #BoxOffice
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: ZOOTOPIA 2 Updates, FNAF2 ($35M+) and AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH ($95M+) Pacing Off from Predecessors, & More Updates
The end of 2025 remains strong thanks to a healthy crop of films on a diverse release slate, but will two fan franchises rebound from current pre-release trends?
boxofficetheory.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:08 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: WICKED: FOR GOOD ($155M+) Hopes to Soar High Across Multiple Opening Record Books

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#WickedForGood #BoxOffice #Wicked
Box Office Weekend Forecast: WICKED: FOR GOOD ($155M+) Hopes to Soar High Across Multiple Opening Record Books
Topping WICKED's $112.5 million domestic launch a year ago is a no-doubter, but how high can the hotly anticipated conclusion fly?
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November 20, 2025 at 3:50 PM
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6-Week #BoxOffice Tracking & Forecasts: #Anaconda, #MartySupreme, and #SongSungBlue to Highlight Christmas Week Openers; #WickedForGood Continues to Sing in Final Pre-Opening Week

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#Avatar
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: ANACONDA, MARTY SUPREME, and SONG SUNG BLUE to Highlight Christmas Week Openers; WICKED: FOR GOOD Continues to Sing in Final Pre-Opening Week
Fresh content will be in no short supply this holiday season as 2025 continues marching toward a possible $9 billion finish domestically.
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November 14, 2025 at 4:29 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: #TheRunningMan and #NowYouSeeMe ($14-15M+ Each) Too Close to Call; Can Either Overtake #PredatorBadlands?

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#BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: THE RUNNING MAN and NOW YOU SEE ME: NOW YOU DON’T ($14-15M+ Each) Too Close to Call; Can Either Overtake PREDATOR: BADLANDS?
The penultimate weekend before WICKED: FOR GOOD storms theaters could end up much closer between three films than anyone expected in recent weeks.
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November 12, 2025 at 5:05 PM
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6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: #AvatarFireAndAsh Targets $110M+ Domestic Launch in Early Outlooks; #WickedForGood + #Zootopia2 Check-Ins & More

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#TheHousemaid #SpongeBob #BoxOffice
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH Targets $110M+ Domestic Launch in Early Outlooks; WICKED: FOR GOOD and ZOOTOPIA 2 Check-Ins & More
James Cameron's AVATAR franchise will again lord over the pre-Christmas weekend, but can FIRE AND ASH duplicate the same level of domestic success as WAY OF WATER?
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November 7, 2025 at 4:55 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: PREDATOR: BADLANDS ($24-26M+) Leans on Strong Reviews as the Latest Legacy IP Sequel Geared Toward Male Moviegoers

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#PredatorBadlands #BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: PREDATOR: BADLANDS ($24-26M+) Leans on Strong Reviews as the Latest Legacy IP Sequel Geared Toward Male Moviegoers
Dan Trachtenberg's well-received franchise sequel will provide some upside to the first full weekend of November as the industry awaits holiday tentpoles later in the month.
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November 5, 2025 at 11:00 PM
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6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: #WickedForGood Still Towering In Expectations, Plus #Zootopia2, #PredatorBadlands and #TheRunningMan Updates

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#BoxOffice
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: WICKED: FOR GOOD Still Towering In Expectations, Plus ZOOTOPIA 2, PREDATOR: BADLANDS, and RUNNING MAN Updates
November and December tentpoles remain the great hope of an industry eagerly awaiting a fall box office rebound amid hopes for 2025 to crack $9 billion by the end.
boxofficetheory.substack.com
October 31, 2025 at 3:17 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: #BlackPhone2, Plus #BackToTheFuture, #Twilight, and #KPopDemonHunters Re-Issues Topline a Sleepy Halloween Slate

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#BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: BLACK PHONE 2, Plus BACK TO THE FUTURE, TWILIGHT, and KPOP DEMON HUNTERS Re-Issues Topline a Sleepy Halloween Slate
It's a scary Halloween frame for theaters as studios have avoided new major releases, positioning the frame as potentially the first since March without a film earning more than $10 million.
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October 29, 2025 at 4:05 PM
boxofficetheory.com
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Will FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY’S 2 ($50M+) Score the Rare Early December Tentpole-Level Debut?

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#fnaf2movie #FNAF #FNAF2 #Blumhouse #BoxOffice
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Will FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY’S 2 ($50M+) Score the Rare Early December Tentpole-Level Debut?
Expecting returns on par with 2023's first adaptation may be asking for too much even with a theatrically exclusive window this time, but fans are clearly still excited for FNAF2.
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October 24, 2025 at 10:38 PM
boxofficetheory.com
Box Office Weekend Forecast: #Springsteen, #ChainsawMan, and #RegrettingYou Take On #BlackPhone2's Sophomore Frame

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#BoxOffice #Bugonia #ShelbyOaks
Box Office Weekend Forecast: SPRINGSTEEN, CHAINSAW MAN, and REGRETTING YOU Take On BLACK PHONE 2’s Sophomore Frame
Can "The Boss" and/or anime fans unseat Blumhouse's hit sequel from its late October box office throne?
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October 22, 2025 at 7:01 PM
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6-Week Tracking & Forecasts: Disney's #Zootopia2 ($115-130M+) Could Rival Moana 2’s $139.8M Thanksgiving Record; #WickedForGood Pre-Sales Formidable, Pacing for Potential $155M+

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#BoxOffice
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Disney's ZOOTOPIA 2 ($115-130M+) Could Rival MOANA 2’s $139.8M Thanksgiving Record; WICKED: FOR GOOD Pre-Sales Formidable, Pacing for Potential $155M+
A three-month drought in animated releases and tons of goodwill for the original film could help Disney enjoy back-to-back Thanksgiving helpings with ZOOTOPIA 2.
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October 17, 2025 at 4:13 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: BLACK PHONE 2 ($21M+) to Headline a Scarily Light October Frame as GOOD FORTUNE and TRUTH & TREASON Also Debut

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#BlackPhone2 #BoxOffice
October 15, 2025 at 4:11 PM
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6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: WICKED: FOR GOOD Pre-Sales Show Potential to Fly High Above Part 1’s $112.5M Domestic Launch

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#WickedForGood #Wicked #BoxOffice
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: WICKED: FOR GOOD Pre-Sales Show Potential to Fly High Above Part 1’s $112.5M Domestic Launch
The global phenomenon that was WICKED last year is already signaling signs of a big encore with WICKED: FOR GOOD concluding the hugely popular musical adaptation.
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October 10, 2025 at 5:15 PM
boxofficetheory.com
Box Office Weekend Forecast: TRON: ARES ($33M+), ROOFMAN, SOUL ON FIRE, and KISS OF THE SPIDER WOMAN Debut for a Quiet Holiday Frame

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#TronAres #Roofman #SoulOnFire #BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: TRON: ARES ($33M+), ROOFMAN, SOUL ON FIRE, and KISS OF THE SPIDER WOMAN Debut for a Quiet Holiday Frame
Disney's fifteen-years-in-the-making sequel is tracking well among core male audience fans with healthy business expected from premium screens, but will it break out beyond the brand's inherent niche?
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October 8, 2025 at 5:01 PM
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6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: #TheRunningMan ($22M+), #NowYouSeeMe3, and #Keeper to Vie for Moviegoer Attention on Pre-WICKED Finale Frame

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#TronAres #BoxOffice
October 3, 2025 at 4:23 PM
boxofficetheory.com
Box Office Weekend Forecast: #TaylorSwift ($33M+), #TheSmashingMachine ($8-10M+), #OneBattleAfterAnother Sophomore Frame + #GoodBoy to Stand Above Field of Mid-to-Low Profile Openers

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#BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: TAYLOR SWIFT ($33M+), SMASHING MACHINE ($8-10M+), ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER’s Sophomore Frame and GOOD BOY to Stand Above a Field of Mid-to-Low Profile Openers
Taylor Swift is back to give the box office a much needed boost on a weekend where openers are looking muted and the holdover market lacks the benefit of recent tentpole performers in chase frames.
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October 1, 2025 at 4:51 PM
boxofficetheory.com
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: TAYLOR SWIFT | THE OFFICIAL RELEASE PARTY OF A SHOWGIRL ($38-40M+) and PREDATOR: BADLANDS ($25M+) Early Outlooks

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#TaylorSwift #PredatorBadlands #BoxOffice
September 26, 2025 at 3:30 PM
boxofficetheory.com
Box Office Weekend Forecast: #OneBattleAfterAnother ($20M+) to Lean on DiCaprio’s Drawing Power; #GabbysDollhouse and #TheStrangersChapter2 to Counter

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#BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER ($20M+) to Lean on DiCaprio’s Drawing Power; GABBY’S DOLLHOUSE and THE STRANGERS: CHAPTER 2 to Counter
Pre-release narratives are already debating whether PTA and Leo's crime comedy will be successful from a budget standpoint, but theaters and moviegoers are already winners with OBAA's release.
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September 24, 2025 at 5:07 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER ($20M+) to Lean on DiCaprio’s Drawing Power; GABBY’S DOLLHOUSE and THE STRANGERS: CHAPTER 2 to Counter

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#OneBattleAfterAnother #BoxOffice
September 24, 2025 at 5:04 PM
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6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: #BackToTheFuture and #Twilight Re-Issues to Highlight Halloween; #OneBattleAfterAnother and More Updates

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#BoxOffice
6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: BACK TO THE FUTURE & TWILIGHT Re-Issues to Highlight Halloween; ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER and More Updates
The fall slate continues to take shape as reach the end of October's outlook in our public report.
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September 19, 2025 at 3:04 PM
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Box Office Weekend Forecast: HIM ($18M+) Takes on DEMON SLAYER: INFINITY CASTLE’s 2nd Frame ($13M+), THE CONJURING’s 3rd Chase Weekend, + Other Openers

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#HIM #DemonSlayer #TheConjuring #BoxOffice
Box Office Weekend Forecast: HIM ($18M+) Takes on DEMON SLAYER: INFINITY CASTLE’s 2nd Frame ($13M+), THE CONJURING’s 3rd Chase Weekend, and Other Openers
A fresh sports-horror hybrid and key holdovers will strive to keep September's better-than-expected market rolling along.
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September 17, 2025 at 4:11 PM
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6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: BLACK PHONE 2, SPRINGSTEEN, GOOD FORTUNE, REGRETTING YOU, and More Updates

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#BlackPhone2 #Springsteen #RegrettingYou #GoodFortune #ChainsawMan #BoxOffice
September 12, 2025 at 3:59 PM