Benjamin Herscovitch 郝杰明
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bherscovitch.bsky.social
Benjamin Herscovitch 郝杰明
@bherscovitch.bsky.social
Research Fellow at The Australian National University; 🇨🇳 investment advisory; author Beijing to Canberra and Back. Focus: 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 & 🇦🇺-🇹🇼 relations. Ex Department of Defence. Usual caveats.
🇦🇺 announced today that it'll end anti-dumping measures on 🇨🇳 stainless steel sinks.

🇨🇳 will be pleased.

It could also be a sign that we'll soon see 🇨🇳 take concrete steps to remove enduring trade restrictions on 🇦🇺 live 🦞.

www.industry.gov.au/anti-dumping...

www.industry.gov.au/anti-dumping...
www.industry.gov.au
December 10, 2024 at 2:59 AM
🇦🇺’s Anti-Dumping Commission delays to 4 Dec advice on removing measures on 🇨🇳 steel sinks.

Delay apparently caused by late submissions & “complexity of matters raised.”

🇨🇳 likely watching closely & could link issue to removal of restrictions on 🇦🇺 🦞.
www.industry.gov.au/sites/defaul...
www.industry.gov.au
November 27, 2024 at 7:40 AM
🇦🇺+🇨🇳 leaders have met on the sidelines of the G20 & 🇦🇺 looks set to remove some anti-dumping measures on 🇨🇳 sinks.

What do these developments mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations & the long-awaited end of 🇨🇳’s trade restrictions on 🇦🇺 🦞?

BCB in brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...
BCB in brief: Leaders meet and Australian anti-dumping measures poised to go
What happened
beijing2canberra.substack.com
November 19, 2024 at 2:14 AM
The Albanese government has ruled out 🇦🇺 tariffs on 🇨🇳 EVs & other restrictions on 🇨🇳 car technology.

But what would a Coalition government do if they win the 2025 federal election?

beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-predic...
BCB predicts: Would a Coalition government block Chinese EVs?
The prediction
beijing2canberra.substack.com
November 6, 2024 at 10:15 PM
🇦🇺+🇨🇳 trade/commerce ministers met yesterday in Shanghai.

No mention of 🦞 in 🇨🇳's readout of the meeting, despite losses of $1.9 billion for 🇦🇺 industry since 2020.

What does the meeting mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations and 🇦🇺 🦞 + 🥩?

BCB in brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...
BCB in brief: Australia’s trade minister in China as lobster losses reach $1.9 billion
What happened
beijing2canberra.substack.com
November 4, 2024 at 9:16 AM
Lots of talk about the potential end of 🇨🇳’s economic coercion campaign against 🇦🇺.

Yet the latest trade data shows 🇦🇺’s flatlining copper ores & concentrates exports to 🇨🇳.

Is 🇨🇳 still imposing trade restrictions on 🇦🇺 copper ores & concentrates?

beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-data-c...
BCB data: China might still be blocking copper from Australia
The latest numbers
beijing2canberra.substack.com
October 29, 2024 at 3:11 AM
Beijing has fired back hard at 🇦🇺’s criticism of 🇨🇳’s human rights violations in Xinjiang and Tibet.

What’s likely to happen next? And what does this diplomatic dispute mean for the stabilisation of the 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relationship?

BCB in brief:
beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...
BCB in brief: Australia and China spar over human rights in Xinjiang and Tibet
What happened
beijing2canberra.substack.com
October 24, 2024 at 5:55 AM
Beijing to Canberra and Back (16 Sep to 13 Oct 2024):

1️⃣ Is it too soon to declare the end of 🇨🇳’s economic coercion against 🇦🇺?

2️⃣ Why has 🇨🇳 responded so quietly to the 🦞 news?

3️⃣ Will 🇦🇺 now unwind anti-dumping measures or approve a 🇨🇳 investment?

beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/australias...
Australia's live lobster news, China's quiet response, and quid pro quo questions
Weeks of 16 September to 13 October 2024
beijing2canberra.substack.com
October 18, 2024 at 12:53 AM
🇦🇺 MPs and senators are visiting 🇨🇳 on the first parliamentary delegation since November 2019.

What’s the significance of the visit and what does it mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations?

BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...
BCB in Brief: Australian parliamentary delegation visits China
This edition of BCB in Brief is for paid subscribers.
beijing2canberra.substack.com
October 14, 2024 at 5:31 AM
The 🇦🇺 parliamentary delegation to 🇨🇳 is slated to visit a solar & wind manufacturer in Beijing.

No details of which firm, but I wonder if we'll see 🇨🇳 companies like Beijing Energy Int. or Trina Solar get their sizeable investments in 🇦🇺 approved?
www.linkedin.com/posts/jerome...
Jerome Laxale MP on LinkedIn: Sunday in Beijing saw us visit some sights and also do a bit of work…
Sunday in Beijing saw us visit some sights and also do a bit of work before a manic 3-4 days to come. Yesterday we got to see the Great Wall and the…
www.linkedin.com
October 14, 2024 at 1:55 AM
Oddly, the 🇦🇺 PM's 🦞 news wasn’t mentioned in the 🇨🇳 gov leader meeting readout, 🇨🇳 MFA didn’t engage much on the issue & many major 🇨🇳 news outlets said little to nothing about it.

Doesn’t necessarily mean the 🇦🇺 PM was getting ahead of himself. But it's prima facie peculiar.
October 11, 2024 at 1:45 AM
🇦🇺 Prime Minister Albanese today announced an agreement w/ 🇨🇳 Premier Li for Beijing to remove its politically motivated trade restriction on 🇦🇺 🦞.

What does this mean for 🦞 exporters, 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 trade ties & the broader bilat relationship?

BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...
BCB in Brief: China to remove trade restrictions on Australian live lobster
This edition of BCB in Brief is for paid subscribers.
beijing2canberra.substack.com
October 10, 2024 at 8:35 AM
🇦🇺 Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been in 🇨🇳, 🇦🇺 has confirmed that it won’t impose tariffs on 🇨🇳 EVs, and an 🇦🇺 navy vessel has transited the Taiwan Strait with 🇯🇵 + 🇳🇿.

What does all this mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 ties?

BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...
BCB in Brief: Chalmers in China, no tariffs on Chinese EVs, and a Taiwan Strait transit
The full version of this edition of BCB in Brief is for paid subscribers.
beijing2canberra.substack.com
September 27, 2024 at 6:37 AM
🇦🇺’s + 🇨🇳’s foreign ministers meet face-to-face for the 7th time since 2022 & 🇦🇺 signs up to a 🇺🇸-led push to create critical minerals supply chains that don’t rely on 🇨🇳.

What’re the implications for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations?

BCB in Brief:
beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...
BCB in Brief: Foreign ministers meet and more bad news for Chinese investors in Australian critical minerals
The full version of this edition of BCB in Brief is for paid subscribers.
beijing2canberra.substack.com
September 25, 2024 at 3:33 PM
🇨🇳's Trina Solar is planning a $400 million battery project in Western 🇦🇺.

One to watch for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 ties.

🇨🇳 has long complained about the treatment of its businesses. & Trina Solar has been linked to forced labour + project likely to attract 🇦🇺 scrutiny.
www.energy-storage.news/trina-solar-...
Trina Solar submits plans for 2.6GWh BESS in Western Australia
Trina Solar has submitted a planning application for a 660MW/2,640MWh BESS in Wellesley, in the Shire of Harvey, Western Australia.
www.energy-storage.news
September 24, 2024 at 2:11 AM
Beijing to Canberra and Back (8-28 July 2024):

1️⃣ 🇦🇺’s 🍷 exports to 🇨🇳 surge (alcoholic beverages exports in May 2024 were circa ✖️23 the value in May 2023)

2️⃣ When will 🇨🇳 lift restrictions on 🇦🇺 🦞?

3️⃣ Debating the meaning of 🇦🇺’s one-China policy

beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/wine-expor...
Wine exports, the latest on lobster, and one-China policies and principles
Weeks of 8 to 28 July 2024
beijing2canberra.substack.com
July 30, 2024 at 6:50 AM
Beijing to Canberra and Back (weeks of 17-ish June to 7 July):

1️⃣ The long-delayed but still likely removal of 🇨🇳’s restrictions on 🇦🇺 🦞

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 spreads more disinformation about 🇦🇺’s one-China policy

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 diplomats in 🇦🇺 amplify anti-🇹🇼 messages

beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/live-lobst...
Live lobster exports, more one-China disinformation, and anti-Taiwan messages
Weeks of 17-ish June to 7 July 2024
beijing2canberra.substack.com
July 12, 2024 at 1:02 PM
🇦🇺 (w/ 🇺🇸, 🇬🇧, 🇨🇦, 🇳🇿, 🇩🇪, 🇰🇷 & 🇯🇵) has issued an advisory about 🇨🇳’s cyberattacks.

What’s the significance of this advisory and what does it mean for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations?

BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...
BCB in Brief: Australia issues advisory about China's cyberattacks
The full version of this edition of BCB in Brief is for paid subscribers. You can upgrade to a paid subscription here: What happened Australia on 9 July issued an advisory about the threat posed by th...
beijing2canberra.substack.com
July 9, 2024 at 9:53 AM
Beijing to Canberra and Back (3 to 16-ish June):

1️⃣ Wrap up of 🇨🇳 Premier Li Qiang’s 🇦🇺 trip

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 likely to remove trade restrictions on 🇦🇺 🦞 in coming weeks

3️⃣ Does 🇦🇺 have a de facto ban on 🇨🇳 investments in its critical minerals miners & refiners?

beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/the-premie...
The Premier's visit, live lobster update, and China's investments in critical minerals
Fortnight of 3 to 16-ish June 2024
beijing2canberra.substack.com
June 21, 2024 at 6:31 AM
What’s the significance of 🇨🇳 Premier Li Qiang’s visit to 🇦🇺 later this week & what’s likely to happen next in the 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relationship?

BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...
BCB in Brief: Premier Li Qiang to visit Australia
Next week’s edition of the free fortnightly BCB newsletter will include a wrap-up of Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Australia. In the meantime, this visit preview is for paid subscribers. You can upgrade...
beijing2canberra.substack.com
June 12, 2024 at 4:11 AM
Beijing to Canberra and Back (13 May to 2 June):
1️⃣ 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relationship stabilisation despite drama
2️⃣ 🇦🇺’s 🇨🇳 choice on 🇺🇦 gets sharper as 🇨🇳 businesses continue to aid 🇷🇺’s war effort
3️⃣ The Albanese government’s deceptive politicisation of 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 ties
beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/stabilisat...
Stabilisation despite drama, Australia's China choice on Ukraine, and politicising bilateral ties
Weeks of 13 May to 2 June 2024
beijing2canberra.substack.com
June 7, 2024 at 5:40 AM
🇦🇺 has ordered 🇨🇳 + 🇨🇳-linked entities & individuals to divest from the rare-earth elements miner Northern Minerals.

What does it say about 🇦🇺’s approach to 🇨🇳 + critical minerals & what does it mean for bilateral ties?

BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...
BCB in Brief: Australia orders China-linked entities to divest from rare-earth miner
The next edition of the free fortnightly BCB newsletter will be published later this week. In the meantime, the full version of this edition of BCB in Brief is for paid subscribers. You can upgrade to...
beijing2canberra.substack.com
June 3, 2024 at 4:01 AM
The implications for 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 ties of 🇨🇳’s removal of more trade restrictions on 🇦🇺 red meat exporters & 🇨🇳’s latest effort to spread disinformation about 🇦🇺’s engagement w/ 🇹🇼.

BCB in Brief: beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/bcb-in-bri...
BCB in Brief: Red meat exporters regain trade access and Taiwan disinformation
The full version of this edition of BCB in Brief is for paid subscribers. You can upgrade to a paid subscription here: What happened The Australian government announced on 30 May that China had lifted...
beijing2canberra.substack.com
May 31, 2024 at 7:36 AM
The bathymetric profile of 🇨🇳’s seaboard via Geoscience Australia.

Gives a sense of why 🇨🇳 might want to get its SSBNs on Hainan to the deeper waters of the northern South China Sea & why 🇦🇺’s AUKUS SSNs might be used to (among others things) help track 🇨🇳’s SSBNs there.
May 21, 2024 at 12:10 AM
Beijing to Canberra and Back (29 April to 12 May):
1️⃣ 🇦🇺’s optimism about the removal of 🇨🇳’s last two trade restrictions on 🦞 & 🥩
2️⃣ Moderate longer-term expectations about 🇦🇺-🇨🇳 relations
3️⃣ The uncompelling economic case for 🇨🇳 in the CPTPP
beijing2canberra.substack.com/p/australias...
Australia's export optimism, more security tensions, and China's CPTPP numbers
Fortnight of 29 April to 12 May 2024
beijing2canberra.substack.com
May 19, 2024 at 7:16 AM