In new research, we find a kind of “Moore’s Law for AI agents”: the length of tasks that AIs can do is doubling about every 7 months.
In new research, we find a kind of “Moore’s Law for AI agents”: the length of tasks that AIs can do is doubling about every 7 months.
If AI context doubles q7mo (per METR task trend) & storage q2yrs => AI outpaces storage by ~2041.
BUT if context doubles q~3mo (closer to actual token growth rate) => could be ~2030-31!
Big implications for #AI timelines.
#MooresLaw #ContextWindow @metr.org
If AI context doubles q7mo (per METR task trend) & storage q2yrs => AI outpaces storage by ~2041.
BUT if context doubles q~3mo (closer to actual token growth rate) => could be ~2030-31!
Big implications for #AI timelines.
#MooresLaw #ContextWindow @metr.org