And increasing risk for a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean this week Oct 19, 2025 Yesterday saw one of the first organized severe weather events of the 2025-2026 cool season. A few complexes of severe thunderstorms developed ahead of an intensifying storm system and cold front, with a number of severe wind damage reports and a few instances of hail scattered from the lower Great Lakes into the Arklatex region.

A short video tour of Bay St. Louis harbor and discussion of the storm surge event. And updates on severe weather risk Saturday and Caribbean tropical possibilities next week. Oct 17, 2025 Good Friday evening from the Florida Panhandle. I am going to be busy in the morning, so wanted to share a quick post this evening. While on our travels, we trekked along the Mississippi Gulf Coast, and stopped in Bay St.

Stateside, severe weather risk ramps up next 24 hours Oct 17, 2025 Good Friday morning from Louisiana! I want to start off this morning by following up on last weekend’s catastrophic storm surge event in western Alaska that I did a deep dive on in Monday’s post. As Rick Thoman noted in his remarks to me for that piece, with winter coming into this isolated area there is no realistic time for recovery and because of that 

Increasing risk for severe storms across parts of the central US into Saturday Oct 16, 2025 Starting off this morning by sharing a couple of stories and links I think of are interest. First, some shameless self-promotion as I want to share this week’s episode of The Weather Channel’s long running Weather Geeks podcast, which in this week’s episode featured me.

Talking about practical implications for federal weather and climate science Oct 15, 2025 Today marks the 15th day of the federal government shutdown, and there are increasing concerns that this could end up being the longest shutdown on record, eclipsing the 35 day shutdown that started in December 2018. A government shutdown occurs when federal funding lapses due to the lack of appropriations from Congress and the President, and the Antideficiency Act requires all “non-essential” federal government activities to cease.

Weatherwise: More flooding in southwest Colorado, but a trend toward a few quieter days in store Oct 14, 2025 With the federal government shutdown entering its third week, USA Today published an article this morning about stresses on the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Air Traffic Control (ATC) due to the shutdown. This is a topic that has been on my mind a lot since last week when a flight I was on aborted its landing at St.

Thunderstorms and snow in the West, coastal flooding in Alaska and the East, and tropical cyclones forming in unusual places for the time of year Oct 13, 2025 Coming at you with an additional late afternoon Monday weather focused post given all that is happening in the weather world currently and since I focused my usual daily post on the major coastal flooding event in Alaska.

Remnants of Typhoon Halong produce hurricane force winds and push massive storm surge inland in Kuskokwim River Delta, destroying and carrying away homes, leaving devastated communities. Oct 13, 2025 Today is Monday, which usually means a tropical deep dive newsletter, but given the catastrophic event that unfolded in Alaska over the last 36 hours, I am going to defer the tropical update and focus today on what transpired in the 49th state with Typhoon Halong.

In weather, significant coastal impacts peak on the East Coast next 36 hours, while flash flooding continues to impact parts of the Southwest Oct 12, 2025 Following up on my post yesterday about the firing of more than 1,000 scientists and staff at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and potential implications for the broader federal science community, last night…

In weather: significant coastal impacts expected from East Coast storm, while rain and potential flash flooding continues in the Southwest Oct 11, 2025 On Friday, the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announced that it had begun a new reduction-in-force of federal employees. The Trump Administration had been threatening since late September that it would utilize a government shutdown to further reduce federal employment rolls by permanently laying off furloughed employees…

Major coastal impacts for the East with serious flash flooding risks in the Southwest. Also, a deep dive into the state of the NWS upper air network in Alaska. Oct 10, 2025 Happy Friday! It looks like a busy weekend of weather, but before I dive into that, I wanted to follow-up on yesterday’s post in which I discussed the complex upper level flow pattern across the Northern Hemisphere that will be driving our weather for the next several days.

Major coastal low to impact the East Coast for several days while heavy rains likely again in the Southwest from moisture from Tropical Storm Priscilla Oct 09, 2025 I am back from my Northeast travels, and I will have content to share in coming days about that trip, particularly my trip to Mount Washington. I also have perspective I want to share about what is happening with the government shutdown and potential short and longer term impacts to NOAA and federal science.

First tornado rated EF-5 in United States in 12 years. Also talking record warmth and tropical Atlantic risks. Oct 06, 2025 Good evening from rural northern Vermont — I don’t have great internet connectivity here, but I wanted to share some news from earlier today that the National Weather Service has upgraded the tornado that occurred near Enderlin, ND on June 20th from an initial EF-3 rating to an EF-5 tornado with maximum winds greater than 210 mph…

Dr. Neil Jacobs confirmed as NOAA Administrator. Also, a look at the busy tropics. Oct 05, 2025 Good morning! I am still traveling, but am in a stable location for about 24 hours and wanted to provide some updates on a few items. First, even with the federal government shutdown, the Senate was in session on Friday and approved one of their…

A couple of pics from my bucket list visit to Mount Washington Observatory Oct 02, 2025 Good evening! I will have a much longer post about this experience in future day, but today I had the opportunity to tour the Mount Washington Observatory. The Mount Washington Observatory is the location that recorded the highest wind speed observed by a human observer on Earth, 231 mph on April 12, 1934…

Tropics remain busy into early October Oct 01, 2025 Happy first day of October! A quick morning update from my travels, today in Manchester, NH. With the first day of October, we also have a federal government shutdown. The National Weather Service continues to operate as normal with regard to provision of forecasts and warnings, but most of the rest of NOAA and scientific research agencies, including NOAA Research, is mainly shutdown and employees furloughed.

Thoughts and perspectives on their investigation into the crucial EM agency. And the weekly Monday tropical deep dive. Sep 29, 2025 Happy Monday, and Monday means a deep dive into the tropics, which continue to remain busy and look as if they will likely stay so for the foreseeable future. Before I get into that, though, I want to highlight…

Slightly more forecast clarity this morning, but still many potential outcomes; Impressive Humberto a category 4 hurricane with threat to Bermuda. And rain in Phoenix!! Sep 27, 2025 There is SO much weather to talk about today, but before I get into that, I unfortunately feel compelled to again talk about what is going on with the federal government as far as NOAA and a potential government shutdown.

Three of USGS Climate Adaptation Science Centers threatened by lack of funding; threat of tropical impacts to the Southeast continues to grow Sep 26, 2025 Before I get into the busy Atlantic tropics, I want to share some climate related news that was announced yesterday. The South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) which is based at the University of Oklahoma, announced yesterday that it will transition to minimal operations effective October 1st.

And a deep dive into the Atlantic tropics with increasing threats for Bermuda and possibly the Southeast US Sep 25, 2025 So much weather to talk about today, but I want to start off with follow-up about the news last night broken by Politico that the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) is directing federal agencies to develop and pursue plans for large scale permanent reductions-in-force as part of its planning for a federal government shutdown.

Staffing levels and morale still concerning as head into the fall Sep 24, 2025 Earlier today, the Associated Press published a story about the chaos that has occurred due to Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) staffing and budget cuts to the General Services Administration, the federal agency that manages real estate and purchasing for the government. Per the article, GSA is attempting to rehire hundreds of GSA employees who were let go in staffing cuts earlier this year:

Gabrielle expected to impact the Azores as a hurricane, while disturbances in the Atlantic need to be closely watched from Bermuda to the East Coast and Bahamas Sep 24, 2025 The tropics remain very busy this morning, and we will start off with Hurricane Gabrielle. While Gabrielle has weakened a bit as it encounters cooler waters and increasing wind shear, it is still a formidable hurricane as it races east in the north Atlantic.

Major focus on the tropics as Gabrielle threatens Azores, Ragasa targets Hong Kong and southern China, and 2 additional Atlantic systems likely Sep 23, 2025 A lot of weather to talk about today, both in the US today and looking at the tropics both near and longer term. Starting stateside, a slow moving storm system in the middle of the country will bring widespread thunderstorm activity to a large region from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley.

Tropics look to be entering an active period from western Pacific to the Atlantic Sep 19, 2025 Happy Friday! As anticipated, an upper level low and moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Mario brought thunderstorms with heavy rainfall to the Southwest on Thursday. While the rainfall totals shown on this MRMS 24 hour rainfall map from 7 am CT this morning may not seem impressive, for the desert Southwest in September they are, particularly when you consider that much of this rain fell in a short duration from thunderstorms.

Gabrielle devoid of thunderstorms, while Mario moisture brings flash flood risk to the Southwest Sep 18, 2025 Yesterday the primary professional organizations for operational meteorology and emergency management, the National Weather Association (NWA) and International Association of Emergency Managers (IAEM), released a joint statement entitled “United in Safeguarding Communities from Weather-driven Disasters.” I encourage you to read the entire statement, but in summary, the statement is a united push back against recent moves to reduce government funding and support for meteorological research/operations and emergency management.