Astral Codex Ten
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P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.
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This is an automated Substack Account of https://www.astralcodexten.com
Discover more/Create at: @skystack.xyz
Open Thread 413 • ...
Open Thread 413
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December 22, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Open Thread 413 • ...
Against Against Boomers • ...
Against Against Boomers
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December 19, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Against Against Boomers • ...
The Pledge • Content warning: attempting to guilt you into donating money
The Pledge
Content warning: attempting to guilt you into donating money
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December 17, 2025 at 6:43 PM
The Pledge • Content warning: attempting to guilt you into donating money
Open Thread 412 • ...
Open Thread 412
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December 15, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Open Thread 412 • ...
Hidden Open Thread 411.5 • ...
Hidden Open Thread 411.5
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December 11, 2025 at 12:43 AM
Hidden Open Thread 411.5 • ...
Links For December 2025 • ...
Links For December 2025
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December 10, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Links For December 2025 • ...
Vibecession: Much More Than You Wanted To Know • ...
Vibecession: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
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December 4, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Vibecession: Much More Than You Wanted To Know • ...
Hidden Open Thread 410.5 • ...
Hidden Open Thread 410.5
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December 4, 2025 at 9:44 AM
Hidden Open Thread 410.5 • ...
The Good News Is That One Side Has Definitively Won The Missing Heritability Debate • ...
The Good News Is That One Side Has Definitively Won The Missing Heritability Debate
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December 3, 2025 at 6:45 PM
The Good News Is That One Side Has Definitively Won The Missing Heritability Debate • ...
Open Thread 410 • ...
Open Thread 410
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December 1, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Open Thread 410 • ...
Hidden Open Thread 409.5 • ...
Hidden Open Thread 409.5
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November 28, 2025 at 6:45 AM
Hidden Open Thread 409.5 • ...
Against The Omnipresent Advantage Argument For Trans Sports • ...
Against The Omnipresent Advantage Argument For Trans Sports
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November 27, 2025 at 3:43 AM
Against The Omnipresent Advantage Argument For Trans Sports • ...
Why AI Safety Won't Make America Lose The Race With China • ...
Why AI Safety Won't Make America Lose The Race With China
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November 26, 2025 at 3:43 AM
Why AI Safety Won't Make America Lose The Race With China • ...
Open Thread 409 • ...
Open Thread 409
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November 24, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Open Thread 409 • ...
God Help Us, Let's Try To Have An Opinion On The War In Gaza • ...
God Help Us, Let's Try To Have An Opinion On The War In Gaza
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November 20, 2025 at 9:45 AM
God Help Us, Let's Try To Have An Opinion On The War In Gaza • ...
Open Thread 408 • ...
Open Thread 408
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November 20, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Open Thread 408 • ...
Suggest Questions For Metaculus/ACX Forecasting Contest • ...
Suggest Questions For Metaculus/ACX Forecasting Contest
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November 20, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Suggest Questions For Metaculus/ACX Forecasting Contest • ...
What Happened To SF Homelessness? • ...
What Happened To SF Homelessness?
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November 20, 2025 at 9:45 AM
What Happened To SF Homelessness? • ...
In What Sense Is Life Suffering? • ...
In What Sense Is Life Suffering?
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November 20, 2025 at 9:45 AM
In What Sense Is Life Suffering? • ...
Hidden Open Thread 406.5 • ...
Hidden Open Thread 406.5
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November 20, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Hidden Open Thread 406.5 • ...
The Bloomer's Paradox • ...
The Bloomer's Paradox
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November 20, 2025 at 9:45 AM
The Bloomer's Paradox • ...
Writing For The AIs • ...
Writing For The AIs
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November 20, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Writing For The AIs • ...
Open Thread 406 • ...
Open Thread 406
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November 20, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Open Thread 406 • ...
Links For October 2025 • ...
Links For October 2025
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November 20, 2025 at 9:45 AM
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Model City Monday 10/27/25 • ...
Model City Monday 10/27/25
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November 20, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Model City Monday 10/27/25 • ...