Aaron Percival
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ampercival.bsky.social
Aaron Percival
@ampercival.bsky.social
aaronpercival.substack.com

Director / @SSC_SPC / Public Sector Transformation Leader – Driving Change for Real Impact | Obsessed with Value, Cares Deeply, Gets Things Done #PublicSector #DigitalGovernment #ServiceDelivery #Transformation #GCDigital
"Fall seven times, stand up eight."

When I first came across it, the math in this Japanese proverb bothered me: you cannot stand up more times than you fall!... or can you?

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January 22, 2026 at 3:07 PM
Ever look at a project proposal and think, "There is no way we can deliver this for $15M and in 6 months"?

This is "strategic misrepresentation."

It happens when business cases drift from forecasting into selling.

I unpack this in this week's Beyond the Status Quo.

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Strategic Misrepresentation
How Unrealistic Promises Get Approved
aaronpercival.substack.com
January 21, 2026 at 4:02 PM
"The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained." Daniel Kahneman describes this as the Narrative Fallacy.

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January 9, 2026 at 5:07 PM
Today I learned that the GC maintains a register of AI systems across government. I spent some time looking through it last night. It lists over 400 active or planned systems across 42 federal institutions.

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Government of Canada AI Register (Minimum Viable Product) - Open Government Portal
The Government of Canada (GC) Artificial Intelligence (AI) Register collects information about the Government of Canada's AI systems. Its publication fulfils a commitment made in the AI Strategy...
open.canada.ca
January 8, 2026 at 3:08 PM
Archive pull: a lot of “delivery problems” start as forecast problems. Optimism bias + strategic misrepresentation can harden a best-case baseline into an approved expectation. How do you counter that in government?

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Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation: The Overly Optimistic Picture
How we can counter these to empower change through informed decision-making and realistic forecasts
aaronpercival.substack.com
January 7, 2026 at 5:02 PM
The 2025 retrospective is live. I looked back at 15 posts to find the common thread. It is the danger of mistaking motion for value. We often rush to show progress, but that usually guarantees a painful finish. Here is what we learned this year.

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2025 Year in Review
Why Government Needs Value Discipline Now
aaronpercival.substack.com
December 30, 2025 at 3:07 PM
We’re about to see significant leadership movement in the federal public sector over the next 12 months. When that happens, we often see significant shifts to priorities and strategies as new people like to put their stamp on things.

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NewCa.com Documents
As leadership transitions reshape Canada's public sector, CIOs face increasing pressure to sustain IT performance, ensure continuity, and align with new mandates. Info-Tech Research Group's latest blueprint, Navigate IT Priorities Through Leadership Shifts, offers a structured approach to help government technology leaders manage change with clarity and confidence. The research provides practical tools and frameworks to anticipate priorities, strengthen governance, and build organizational resilience during transition.As public sector organizations across Canada experience increasing leadership transitions and policy shifts, government CIOs are being called upon to adapt IT strategies that align with evolving mandates, fiscal realities, and citizen expectations. To support this transition, Info-Tech Research Group, a global IT research and advisory firm, has published a new blueprint titled Navigate IT Priorities Through Leadership Shifts, offering Canadian government IT leaders a practical roadmap to manage change while maintaining operational stability and strategic focus.The firm's research insights reveal that leadership transitions, whether triggered by elections, departmental restructuring, or shifts in policy direction, can disrupt IT alignment, introduce security and compliance risks, and delay modernization initiatives. Info-Tech's recent findings emphasize that proactive preparation, strategic foresight, and structured incremental action can enable CIOs to turn these periods of uncertainty into opportunities to strengthen governance, rebuild trust, and realign technology priorities with emerging leadership goals."Government IT leaders operate in environments where leadership changes are frequent and politically driven," says Andy Best, research director at Info-Tech Research Group. "These changes can also result in major strategic shifts like the recent Canadian move towards strongly emphasizing digital sovereignty, impacting IT strategies across the enterprise. Rather than treating leadership turnover as a disruption, CIOs can use these moments to reaffirm the value of IT as a strategic enabler of public service delivery, resilience, and transparency." Key Challenges for Government CIOs During Leadership TransitionsLeadership changes can create significant instability across Canadian public sector IT environments. Info-Tech's blueprint highlights several recurring challenges that CIOs must address:• Misaligned priorities as new mandates shift focus away from existing IT strategies and investments.• Budget and workforce uncertainty complicates long-term planning and undermines service continuity.• Heightened security and compliance risks as strained resources and outdated controls create vulnerabilities.These challenges underscore the need for CIOs to anticipate change early, strengthen operational resilience, and maintain clarity of purpose throughout the transition cycle.Info-Tech Research Group Outlines Core Priorities CIOs Need During Leadership ChangeLeadership transitions can serve as a catalyst for strategic renewal when CIOs apply the right capabilities to anticipate change and maintain stability. Info-Tech's newly published blueprint explains that, in addition to following the structured pre-transition, transition, and post-transition phases, government CIOs must draw on the following six essential capabilities to navigate uncertainty, strengthen alignment, and position IT as a trusted partner across the public sector:1. Strategic foresightIdentifies trends, weak signals, and shifts in policy, technology, and citizen expectations to strengthen the CIO's ability to anticipate change, reduce surprises, and position IT to lead rather than react.2. Exponential ITDefines a forward-looking approach to modernization by moving beyond incremental upgrades to transformative platforms such as cloud infrastructure, automation, and artificial intelligence that accelerate innovation and improve service delivery.3. CIO PlaybookServes as the foundational guide for long-term IT leadership, providing structure for portfolio management, governance, innovation scaling, and enterprise-wide alignment with departmental and citizen outcomes.4. CIO Transition PlaybookOutlines the essential steps for the first 100 days of a new mandate or leadership change, helping CIOs stabilize teams, realign strategic priorities, and deliver early wins that build credibility and momentum under new direction.5. Logical incrementalismSupports deliberate, steady progress by balancing risk and pace to maintain progress without overextending teams and by building stakeholder confidence through consistent, measurable execution.6. Special teamsDelivers high-impact, situational responses through pilot projects, proofs of concept, and early automation or AI initiatives that create quick wins, validate innovation potential, and build resilience during transition.By applying this strategic approach, Info-Tech advises that Canadian government CIOs can transform leadership transitions into catalysts for alignment, modernization, and accountable public service delivery. The firm emphasizes that clarity of vision, strong governance, and effective cross-departmental collaboration are key to ensuring IT remains resilient and strategically relevant during periods of change.SOURCE: Info-Tech Research Group
newca.com
December 29, 2025 at 3:07 PM
"A Common Sense Revolution" was the piece that got me back into the swing of writing this year.

The message? The purpose of the public sector should be obvious, but we often let inertia get in the way.

Here is the framework that anchored my year. 🧵👇
A Common Sense Revolution
Three Simple Public Sector Principles That Should Guide Everything We Do
aaronpercival.substack.com
December 23, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Look what I found while hunting for a human-centred AI framework.

Canada just published a “Compendium of best practices” during its 2025 G7 Presidency—focused on making workplace AI safer and more trustworthy. 🧵👇
Compendium of best practices for a human-centered development and use of Artificial Intelligence in the world of work - Canada.ca
Large print, braille, MP3 (audio), e-text and DAISY formats are available on demand by ordering online or calling 1 800 O-Canada (1-800-622-6232). If you use a teletypewriter (TTY), call 1-800-926-9105.
www.canada.ca
December 22, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Your Sunday Long Read: Why We Double Down on Failure but Fear Innovation

Prospect Theory explains why this pattern is common and predictable.

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media.longnow.org
December 21, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Nothing like a good crisis to move things forward quickly…

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www.canada.ca/en/revenue-a...
December 20, 2025 at 8:00 PM
The Treasury Board Secretariat quietly dropped its response to the Working Group on Public Service Productivity.

It is a major signal for the future of the federal public service.

Here is the breakdown of what they said yes to and what they rejected. 🧵👇
Working Group on Public Service Productivity: Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat response to the recommendations of the Working Group - Canada.ca
The Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat’s response to the recommendations of the Working Group on Public Service Productivity.
www.canada.ca
December 19, 2025 at 5:07 PM
“Losses loom larger than gains.”
— Daniel Kahneman

This one line explains a surprising amount about why large projects struggle, even when the business case is sound.

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December 18, 2025 at 3:44 PM
We talk a lot about innovation in government. But often, real innovation isn’t about shiny objects. It’s more like a plumber fixing the pipes—real work that requires us to get our hands dirty and GSD.

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‘Let’s push forward together to address public service challenges’: Canada CIO sets out how to make most of tech at AccelerateGOV conference - Global Government Forum
Dominic Rochon, the deputy minister and chief information officer of the Government of Canada has urged public servants to use technology to address the challenges facing the public service as he opened this year’s AccelerateGOV conference.
www.globalgovernmentforum.com
December 17, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Measuring "value" in government is tough. 🏛️

In business, success is profit. In the public sector, it is societal impact.

But how do we measure intangible things like trust, equity, or well-being?

A deep dive into Public Value. 🧵👇
Maximizing Public Value
How Governments Can Make Smarter Decisions
open.substack.com
December 16, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Every time a new LLM drops, we get a flood of charts showing how "safe" it is.

However, for leaders deploying AI (especially in the public sector), those charts may create a false sense of security.

Here’s why we need to change how we measure safety. 🧵👇

arxiv.org/html/2507.09...
Measuring What Matters: A Framework for Evaluating Safety Risks in Real-World LLM Applications
Most safety testing efforts for large language models (LLMs) today focus on evaluating foundation models. However, there is a growing need to evaluate safety at the application level, as components such as system prompts, retrieval pipelines, and guardrails introduce additional factors that significantly influence the overall safety of LLM applications. In this paper, we introduce a practical framework for evaluating application-level safety in LLM systems, validated through real-world deployment across multiple use cases within our organization. The framework consists of two parts: (1) principles for developing customized safety risk taxonomies, and (2) practices for evaluating safety risks in LLM applications. We illustrate how the proposed framework was applied in our internal pilot, providing a reference point for organizations seeking to scale their safety testing efforts. This work aims to bridge the gap between theoretical concepts in AI safety and the operational realities of safeguarding LLM applications in practice, offering actionable guidance for safe and scalable deployment.
arxiv.org
December 14, 2025 at 3:07 PM
"Nothing in life is as important as you think it is, while you are thinking about it." — Daniel Kahneman

If you are feeling uneasy about the future right now, stop scrolling.

Take a moment and read that again. 🧵
December 12, 2025 at 5:07 PM
AI as Artificial Ignorance.

While everyone is panic-scrolling about AI becoming super-intelligent and taking over the world, Bent Flyvbjerg just fired a shot across AI's bow.

His diagnosis? We aren't dealing with Artificial Intelligence. We are dealing with Artificial Ignorance.

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December 11, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Why do so many major initiatives start by declaring themselves unique, yet end with the same predictable challenges? This week’s Beyond the Status Quo explores a different path for public sector leaders grounded in evidence, not optimism.

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Why Your Project Isn’t Unique And How to Deliver It Better
Happy Tuesday, Transformation Friends.
open.substack.com
December 9, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Why do initiatives start strong but lose direction? Too often, teams jump into tasks before defining the purpose. Right-to-left thinking helps leaders anchor delivery in outcomes that citizens truly value. 🧵👇
Think Right to Left: Defining the Why for Better Public Sector Results
Happy Tuesday, Transformation Friends.
open.substack.com
November 18, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Successful projects: What if the secret to finishing faster is starting slower? 🧵👇

#BeyondTheStatusQuo #PublicSectorLeadership #Transformation #ProjectDelivery #ThinkSlowActFast
Think Slow, Act Fast: The Science of Delivering Public Projects on Time and on Budget
Happy Tuesday, Transformation Friends.
open.substack.com
October 28, 2025 at 5:14 PM
“Resilience isn’t a single skill. It’s a variety of skills and coping mechanisms.” – Jean Chatzky

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October 22, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Why do IT projects go off the rails... fast?

This week on Beyond the Status Quo, I unpack Flyvbjerg’s analysis of 11,011 projects. IT looks steady—until it doesn’t. Once costs pass 50% over, the average blowout is 453%. That’s wild risk where the “tail” drives the story.

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When IT Projects Go Wild: What We Need to Know
Happy Tuesday, Transformation Friends.
open.substack.com
October 7, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Public service quality isn’t just about speed or efficiency. Citizens judge it by the gaps between what they expect and what they actually experience.

Those gaps can make or break trust.

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Decoding the Gaps and Determinants of Service Quality
Unveiling the Secret to Service Excellence
aaronpercival.substack.com
September 23, 2025 at 2:07 PM
“Project managers who think their project is unique are therefore a liability.”

Bent Flyvbjerg’s research shows why. 🧵👇
September 19, 2025 at 3:17 PM