Aaron Gordon
@aaronknows.bsky.social
Finance and sports obsessive.
Since 1971, mortgage rates have dipped below 5% only TWICE, thanks to global economic crises and the Fed's purchases of mortgage-backed securities.
The Fed hasn't made such moves since 2022.
So, next time you see a 5%, or even a 6% rate, know it's an incredible opportunity.
The Fed hasn't made such moves since 2022.
So, next time you see a 5%, or even a 6% rate, know it's an incredible opportunity.
February 18, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Since 1971, mortgage rates have dipped below 5% only TWICE, thanks to global economic crises and the Fed's purchases of mortgage-backed securities.
The Fed hasn't made such moves since 2022.
So, next time you see a 5%, or even a 6% rate, know it's an incredible opportunity.
The Fed hasn't made such moves since 2022.
So, next time you see a 5%, or even a 6% rate, know it's an incredible opportunity.
Wells Fargo's latest revised forecast for the 30-year fixed mortgage rate.
Q1 2025 --> 7.10%
Q2 2025 --> 6.90%
Q3 2025 --> 6.65%
Q4 2025 --> 6.50%
Q1 2025 --> 7.10%
Q2 2025 --> 6.90%
Q3 2025 --> 6.65%
Q4 2025 --> 6.50%
February 12, 2025 at 12:48 PM
Wells Fargo's latest revised forecast for the 30-year fixed mortgage rate.
Q1 2025 --> 7.10%
Q2 2025 --> 6.90%
Q3 2025 --> 6.65%
Q4 2025 --> 6.50%
Q1 2025 --> 7.10%
Q2 2025 --> 6.90%
Q3 2025 --> 6.65%
Q4 2025 --> 6.50%
The median age of first-time U.S. homebuyers in 1991: 28 years old.
The median age of first-time U.S. homebuyers in 2024: 38 years old.
The median age of first-time U.S. homebuyers in 2024: 38 years old.
February 11, 2025 at 1:07 PM
The median age of first-time U.S. homebuyers in 1991: 28 years old.
The median age of first-time U.S. homebuyers in 2024: 38 years old.
The median age of first-time U.S. homebuyers in 2024: 38 years old.
Treasury Secretary Bessent:
“If we cut spending and reduce the size of the government, we can make the government more efficient. This will lead to a favorable interest-rate cycle.”
“If we cut spending and reduce the size of the government, we can make the government more efficient. This will lead to a favorable interest-rate cycle.”
February 10, 2025 at 12:25 PM
Treasury Secretary Bessent:
“If we cut spending and reduce the size of the government, we can make the government more efficient. This will lead to a favorable interest-rate cycle.”
“If we cut spending and reduce the size of the government, we can make the government more efficient. This will lead to a favorable interest-rate cycle.”
Homeowners have a net worth that's more than 40 times higher than that of renters, according to the Federal Reserve.
February 8, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Homeowners have a net worth that's more than 40 times higher than that of renters, according to the Federal Reserve.
The homeownership rate remains steady at around 65%, the same as last year. Folks complain about “affordability” but the top 65% earn around $114,000 on average. That’s far more than enough to buy today’s average home.
February 7, 2025 at 3:47 PM
The homeownership rate remains steady at around 65%, the same as last year. Folks complain about “affordability” but the top 65% earn around $114,000 on average. That’s far more than enough to buy today’s average home.
Las Vegas Means Luxury! The Valley ranked as the eighth hottest market for luxury homes. Joining the elite luxury club are great cities like Miami, New York, and Singapore.
February 5, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Las Vegas Means Luxury! The Valley ranked as the eighth hottest market for luxury homes. Joining the elite luxury club are great cities like Miami, New York, and Singapore.
Nearly 48% of mortgaged residential properties in the U.S. are considered "equity-rich." That means almost half of homeowners have a combined loan balance that's no more than half of their home's market value.
February 4, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Nearly 48% of mortgaged residential properties in the U.S. are considered "equity-rich." That means almost half of homeowners have a combined loan balance that's no more than half of their home's market value.
Home sales for houses priced above $1 million rose by 35% compared to last year. Unfortunately, the story was different for homes priced under $250,000, where sales dropped.
February 3, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Home sales for houses priced above $1 million rose by 35% compared to last year. Unfortunately, the story was different for homes priced under $250,000, where sales dropped.
May not feel like it but home sales are up 9% year-over-year. Buyers are getting on board with higher rates.
January 31, 2025 at 3:29 PM
May not feel like it but home sales are up 9% year-over-year. Buyers are getting on board with higher rates.
Where will the fire-stricken go? When Angelinos relocate they go to Las Vegas, Dallas, and Phoenix.
January 30, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Where will the fire-stricken go? When Angelinos relocate they go to Las Vegas, Dallas, and Phoenix.
New-home prices DROPPED to a 3-year low, even as sales improved in ‘24. The median sales price for a new home in ‘24 was $420,100, which was lower than the median of $428,600 in ‘23.
January 29, 2025 at 12:49 PM
New-home prices DROPPED to a 3-year low, even as sales improved in ‘24. The median sales price for a new home in ‘24 was $420,100, which was lower than the median of $428,600 in ‘23.
In 2024, existing home sales fell to 4.06M—the lowest since ‘95, despite the population being nearly 80M smaller then. Something's gotta give. Either prices or rates have to drop, right?
January 28, 2025 at 12:22 PM
In 2024, existing home sales fell to 4.06M—the lowest since ‘95, despite the population being nearly 80M smaller then. Something's gotta give. Either prices or rates have to drop, right?
Redfin says that a household needed an income of at least $116,782 to afford the median-priced home at the end of 2024. However, realistically, to qualify, you might be able to get by with about $83,000.
January 27, 2025 at 12:18 PM
Redfin says that a household needed an income of at least $116,782 to afford the median-priced home at the end of 2024. However, realistically, to qualify, you might be able to get by with about $83,000.
Foreclosure filings in 2024 were down 10% from 2023, down 35% from 2019 before the pandemic, and down 89% from the 2010 peak of nearly 2.9 million. Foreclosure repossessions are near an all-time low.
January 23, 2025 at 2:06 PM
Foreclosure filings in 2024 were down 10% from 2023, down 35% from 2019 before the pandemic, and down 89% from the 2010 peak of nearly 2.9 million. Foreclosure repossessions are near an all-time low.
The LA fires are likely to go down as the costliest climate disaster in US history, and may top $300 billion but the national economic impact is likely to be small.
January 22, 2025 at 2:04 PM
The LA fires are likely to go down as the costliest climate disaster in US history, and may top $300 billion but the national economic impact is likely to be small.
From January 2020 to now, home prices nationwide have increased over 52%.
There’s almost $50 trillion in home equity out there, compared to only about $13 trillion in mortgage debt.
Some sellers may have to start giving some back to sell their homes.
There’s almost $50 trillion in home equity out there, compared to only about $13 trillion in mortgage debt.
Some sellers may have to start giving some back to sell their homes.
January 21, 2025 at 2:29 PM
From January 2020 to now, home prices nationwide have increased over 52%.
There’s almost $50 trillion in home equity out there, compared to only about $13 trillion in mortgage debt.
Some sellers may have to start giving some back to sell their homes.
There’s almost $50 trillion in home equity out there, compared to only about $13 trillion in mortgage debt.
Some sellers may have to start giving some back to sell their homes.
Tens of thousands of people in LA County had to evacuate due to wildfires. They'll need to wait at least another week before they can return home to check for damage, grab essentials, and see what's left of their home. Many believe this will send more Angelenos into other states like NV, AZ and TX.
January 20, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Tens of thousands of people in LA County had to evacuate due to wildfires. They'll need to wait at least another week before they can return home to check for damage, grab essentials, and see what's left of their home. Many believe this will send more Angelenos into other states like NV, AZ and TX.
Mortgage rates are now the LOWEST they've been in two weeks.
January 17, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Mortgage rates are now the LOWEST they've been in two weeks.
Core inflation cooler than expected. Unemployment up. That all usually means lower mortgage rates. Is this the kickstart we need to get rates back towards 6%?
January 16, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Core inflation cooler than expected. Unemployment up. That all usually means lower mortgage rates. Is this the kickstart we need to get rates back towards 6%?
The Fed's Governor Christopher Waller supports more Fed rate cuts and he doesn't believe Trump's proposed tariffs will cause inflation. There’s lots of concern that tariffs will increase inflation and thus create higher interest rates.
January 15, 2025 at 1:44 PM
The Fed's Governor Christopher Waller supports more Fed rate cuts and he doesn't believe Trump's proposed tariffs will cause inflation. There’s lots of concern that tariffs will increase inflation and thus create higher interest rates.
Mortgage rates are highest they’ve been since May. Lots of speculation on social media that they could go to 8%. Possible but no one knows. Like saying rates could drop to 6%. Good arguments for both.
January 14, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Mortgage rates are highest they’ve been since May. Lots of speculation on social media that they could go to 8%. Possible but no one knows. Like saying rates could drop to 6%. Good arguments for both.
After Christmas, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits was the lowest it had been in eight months. For mortgage rates to go down, we need unemployment to go up.
January 13, 2025 at 12:56 PM
After Christmas, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits was the lowest it had been in eight months. For mortgage rates to go down, we need unemployment to go up.
Most who followed the "date the rate" advice are still stuck with those higher rates, but their homes' values have gone up by about 8% on average over the last two years. That’s a $32,000 gain on a $400,000 home. Not bad.
January 10, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Most who followed the "date the rate" advice are still stuck with those higher rates, but their homes' values have gone up by about 8% on average over the last two years. That’s a $32,000 gain on a $400,000 home. Not bad.
California net domestic migration, by year
2019 -> -203K
2020 -> -67K
2021 -> -478K
2022 -> -337K
2023 -> -344K
2024 -> -240K
Source: ResiClub
2019 -> -203K
2020 -> -67K
2021 -> -478K
2022 -> -337K
2023 -> -344K
2024 -> -240K
Source: ResiClub
January 9, 2025 at 2:23 PM
California net domestic migration, by year
2019 -> -203K
2020 -> -67K
2021 -> -478K
2022 -> -337K
2023 -> -344K
2024 -> -240K
Source: ResiClub
2019 -> -203K
2020 -> -67K
2021 -> -478K
2022 -> -337K
2023 -> -344K
2024 -> -240K
Source: ResiClub