Philippe J. Fournier
@338canada.bsky.social
Editor-in-Chief 338Canada丨Rédacteur en chef Qc125丨Chroniqueur @ L'actualité, The Walrus & Politico Canada丨Co-host The Numbers podcast丨Prof astronomy & astrophysics丨Occasional cat pictures🤍丨📍Montréal
🗳️Élections générales au Québec dans 269 jours !
🔮 Faisons un peu de politique-fiction. Ma chronique pour @lactualite.com ↓
lactualite.com/politique/4-...
🔮 Faisons un peu de politique-fiction. Ma chronique pour @lactualite.com ↓
lactualite.com/politique/4-...
4 scénarios de fou pour les prochaines élections québécoises !
Attachez vos tuques : l'année électorale qui s'amorce au Québec s'annonce palpitante, et aucun scénario ne peut être écarté. En voici quatre qui pourraient faire exploser votre cerveau, élaborés à par...
lactualite.com
January 9, 2026 at 5:47 PM
🗳️Élections générales au Québec dans 269 jours !
🔮 Faisons un peu de politique-fiction. Ma chronique pour @lactualite.com ↓
lactualite.com/politique/4-...
🔮 Faisons un peu de politique-fiction. Ma chronique pour @lactualite.com ↓
lactualite.com/politique/4-...
📊Preferred PM, Nanos Research tracker (Dec.12-Jan.2):
🔴49% Mark Carney (-1)
🔵26% Pierre Poilievre (-2)
(Comparison with previous 4-week wave)
338canada.com/20260102-nan...
🔴49% Mark Carney (-1)
🔵26% Pierre Poilievre (-2)
(Comparison with previous 4-week wave)
338canada.com/20260102-nan...
338Canada | Nanos Research federal poll, January 2026
338canada.com
January 6, 2026 at 2:41 PM
📊Preferred PM, Nanos Research tracker (Dec.12-Jan.2):
🔴49% Mark Carney (-1)
🔵26% Pierre Poilievre (-2)
(Comparison with previous 4-week wave)
338canada.com/20260102-nan...
🔴49% Mark Carney (-1)
🔵26% Pierre Poilievre (-2)
(Comparison with previous 4-week wave)
338canada.com/20260102-nan...
📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Nanos Research:
🔴LPC 38%
🔵CPC 36%
🟠NDP 12%
⚜️BQ 8%
🟢GPC 4%
🟣PPC 2%
→ 338canada.com/20260102-nan...
[Nanos Research, Dec.12-Jan. 2, 2026, n=1,054]
🔴LPC 38%
🔵CPC 36%
🟠NDP 12%
⚜️BQ 8%
🟢GPC 4%
🟣PPC 2%
→ 338canada.com/20260102-nan...
[Nanos Research, Dec.12-Jan. 2, 2026, n=1,054]
338Canada | Nanos Research federal poll, January 2026
338canada.com
January 6, 2026 at 2:34 PM
📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Nanos Research:
🔴LPC 38%
🔵CPC 36%
🟠NDP 12%
⚜️BQ 8%
🟢GPC 4%
🟣PPC 2%
→ 338canada.com/20260102-nan...
[Nanos Research, Dec.12-Jan. 2, 2026, n=1,054]
🔴LPC 38%
🔵CPC 36%
🟠NDP 12%
⚜️BQ 8%
🟢GPC 4%
🟣PPC 2%
→ 338canada.com/20260102-nan...
[Nanos Research, Dec.12-Jan. 2, 2026, n=1,054]
📊L’écart entre le Bloc québécois et le Parti libéral du Canada se resserre à six points dans la moyenne des sondages au Québec.
⚜️Le Bloc a terminé l'année en force, ma chronique pour l'infolettre Qc125 ↓ www.qc125.ca/p/le-bloc-a-...
⚜️Le Bloc a terminé l'année en force, ma chronique pour l'infolettre Qc125 ↓ www.qc125.ca/p/le-bloc-a-...
Le Bloc a terminé l'année en force
L’écart entre le Bloc québécois et le Parti libéral du Canada se resserre à six points dans la moyenne des sondages au Québec.
www.qc125.ca
January 5, 2026 at 4:48 PM
📊L’écart entre le Bloc québécois et le Parti libéral du Canada se resserre à six points dans la moyenne des sondages au Québec.
⚜️Le Bloc a terminé l'année en force, ma chronique pour l'infolettre Qc125 ↓ www.qc125.ca/p/le-bloc-a-...
⚜️Le Bloc a terminé l'année en force, ma chronique pour l'infolettre Qc125 ↓ www.qc125.ca/p/le-bloc-a-...
Liaison: "Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mark
Carney is doing as Prime Minister of Canada?"
🟢55% Approve
🔴39% Disapprove
338canada.com/20251230-lia...
Carney is doing as Prime Minister of Canada?"
🟢55% Approve
🔴39% Disapprove
338canada.com/20251230-lia...
338Canada | Liaison Strategies federal poll, December 2025
338canada.com
January 5, 2026 at 12:50 PM
Liaison: "Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mark
Carney is doing as Prime Minister of Canada?"
🟢55% Approve
🔴39% Disapprove
338canada.com/20251230-lia...
Carney is doing as Prime Minister of Canada?"
🟢55% Approve
🔴39% Disapprove
338canada.com/20251230-lia...
📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Liaison Strategies:
🔴LPC 38%
🔵CPC 37%
🟠NDP 12%
⚜️BQ 7% (31% in QC)
🟢GPC 3%
🟣PPC 1%
→ 338canada.com/20251230-lia...
[Liaison Strategies, Dec. 26-Jan.3, 2025, n=1,000]
#canpoli
🔴LPC 38%
🔵CPC 37%
🟠NDP 12%
⚜️BQ 7% (31% in QC)
🟢GPC 3%
🟣PPC 1%
→ 338canada.com/20251230-lia...
[Liaison Strategies, Dec. 26-Jan.3, 2025, n=1,000]
#canpoli
338Canada | Liaison Strategies federal poll, December 2025
338canada.com
January 5, 2026 at 12:29 PM
📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Liaison Strategies:
🔴LPC 38%
🔵CPC 37%
🟠NDP 12%
⚜️BQ 7% (31% in QC)
🟢GPC 3%
🟣PPC 1%
→ 338canada.com/20251230-lia...
[Liaison Strategies, Dec. 26-Jan.3, 2025, n=1,000]
#canpoli
🔴LPC 38%
🔵CPC 37%
🟠NDP 12%
⚜️BQ 7% (31% in QC)
🟢GPC 3%
🟣PPC 1%
→ 338canada.com/20251230-lia...
[Liaison Strategies, Dec. 26-Jan.3, 2025, n=1,000]
#canpoli
🍾338 Year-End Note: Thank You
www.338canada.ca/p/338-year-e...
www.338canada.ca/p/338-year-e...
338 Year-End Note: Thank You
As we wrap 2025, a warm thank-you to readers and subscribers — and a look ahead to a packed 2026 in Canadian politics.
www.338canada.ca
December 31, 2025 at 5:41 PM
🍾338 Year-End Note: Thank You
www.338canada.ca/p/338-year-e...
www.338canada.ca/p/338-year-e...
Thank you so much for these kind words! Happy 2026 to you and to your mom ♥
December 31, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Thank you so much for these kind words! Happy 2026 to you and to your mom ♥
📊The Numbers: Predicting 2026 in provincial politics
🎧Here is the second half of our Over/Under contest for 2026! ↓ www.338canada.ca/p/the-number...
🎧Here is the second half of our Over/Under contest for 2026! ↓ www.338canada.ca/p/the-number...
The Numbers: Predicting 2026 in provincial politics
Will there be more than one provincial election in 2026? (Probably!) Here is the second part of our year's end Over/Under contest.
www.338canada.ca
December 30, 2025 at 9:58 PM
📊The Numbers: Predicting 2026 in provincial politics
🎧Here is the second half of our Over/Under contest for 2026! ↓ www.338canada.ca/p/the-number...
🎧Here is the second half of our Over/Under contest for 2026! ↓ www.338canada.ca/p/the-number...
📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Nanos Research:
🔴LPC 38%
🔵CPC 35%
🟠NDP 11%
⚜️BQ 7%
🟢GPC 4%
🟣PPC 2%
→ 338canada.com/20251226-nan...
[Nanos Research, December 5-26, 2025, n=1,057]
#canpoli
🔴LPC 38%
🔵CPC 35%
🟠NDP 11%
⚜️BQ 7%
🟢GPC 4%
🟣PPC 2%
→ 338canada.com/20251226-nan...
[Nanos Research, December 5-26, 2025, n=1,057]
#canpoli
338Canada | Nanos Research federal poll, December 2025
338canada.com
December 30, 2025 at 2:42 PM
📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Nanos Research:
🔴LPC 38%
🔵CPC 35%
🟠NDP 11%
⚜️BQ 7%
🟢GPC 4%
🟣PPC 2%
→ 338canada.com/20251226-nan...
[Nanos Research, December 5-26, 2025, n=1,057]
#canpoli
🔴LPC 38%
🔵CPC 35%
🟠NDP 11%
⚜️BQ 7%
🟢GPC 4%
🟣PPC 2%
→ 338canada.com/20251226-nan...
[Nanos Research, December 5-26, 2025, n=1,057]
#canpoli
📊Final 2025 episode of The Numbers!
🎧After tackling the federal scene last week, Eric and I have a little fun predicting 2026 in provincial politics: www.patreon.com/posts/video-...
🎧After tackling the federal scene last week, Eric and I have a little fun predicting 2026 in provincial politics: www.patreon.com/posts/video-...
(VIDEO) Predicting 2026 in provincial politics | The Numbers / Les chiffres
Get more from The Numbers / Les chiffres on Patreon
www.patreon.com
December 30, 2025 at 2:39 PM
📊Final 2025 episode of The Numbers!
🎧After tackling the federal scene last week, Eric and I have a little fun predicting 2026 in provincial politics: www.patreon.com/posts/video-...
🎧After tackling the federal scene last week, Eric and I have a little fun predicting 2026 in provincial politics: www.patreon.com/posts/video-...
338Canada🍁federal update | December 28, 2025
----------------majority: 172 seats
🔴LPC 156 (lowest since election)
🔵CPC 142
⚜️BQ 31 (highest since election)
🟠NDP 12 (highest since Aug.'25)
🟢GPC 2
338 Sunday Update: Cracks in Liberal Support? www.338canada.ca/p/338-sunday...
----------------majority: 172 seats
🔴LPC 156 (lowest since election)
🔵CPC 142
⚜️BQ 31 (highest since election)
🟠NDP 12 (highest since Aug.'25)
🟢GPC 2
338 Sunday Update: Cracks in Liberal Support? www.338canada.ca/p/338-sunday...
338 Sunday Update: Final 2025 Polls Show Cracks in Liberal Support
A statistical tie to end 2025, falling government approval, and warning signs in Quebec and B.C.
www.338canada.ca
December 29, 2025 at 1:08 PM
338Canada🍁federal update | December 28, 2025
----------------majority: 172 seats
🔴LPC 156 (lowest since election)
🔵CPC 142
⚜️BQ 31 (highest since election)
🟠NDP 12 (highest since Aug.'25)
🟢GPC 2
338 Sunday Update: Cracks in Liberal Support? www.338canada.ca/p/338-sunday...
----------------majority: 172 seats
🔴LPC 156 (lowest since election)
🔵CPC 142
⚜️BQ 31 (highest since election)
🟠NDP 12 (highest since Aug.'25)
🟢GPC 2
338 Sunday Update: Cracks in Liberal Support? www.338canada.ca/p/338-sunday...
📊338 Sunday Update: Final 2025 Polls Show Cracks in Liberal Support
🚨A statistical tie to end 2025, falling government approval, and warning signs in Quebec and B.C. My latest ↓ www.338canada.ca/p/338-sunday...
🚨A statistical tie to end 2025, falling government approval, and warning signs in Quebec and B.C. My latest ↓ www.338canada.ca/p/338-sunday...
338 Sunday Update: Final 2025 Polls Show Cracks in Liberal Support
A statistical tie to end 2025, falling government approval, and warning signs in Quebec and B.C.
www.338canada.ca
December 28, 2025 at 10:56 PM
📊338 Sunday Update: Final 2025 Polls Show Cracks in Liberal Support
🚨A statistical tie to end 2025, falling government approval, and warning signs in Quebec and B.C. My latest ↓ www.338canada.ca/p/338-sunday...
🚨A statistical tie to end 2025, falling government approval, and warning signs in Quebec and B.C. My latest ↓ www.338canada.ca/p/338-sunday...
December 28, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Les Douze Travaux. 🐐
December 27, 2025 at 12:09 AM
Les Douze Travaux. 🐐
Thanks to the many new subscribers to the newsletter!
I very much appreciate your support! www.338canada.ca/subscribe?co...
I very much appreciate your support! www.338canada.ca/subscribe?co...
Subscribe to 338Canada.ca
Canadian politics by the numbers. 🍁
Subscribe to 338Canada for in-depth analysis of polling data, electoral maps, and Canada's ever-changing political landscape. Click to read 338Canada.ca, a Substac...
www.338canada.ca
December 24, 2025 at 12:11 AM
Thanks to the many new subscribers to the newsletter!
I very much appreciate your support! www.338canada.ca/subscribe?co...
I very much appreciate your support! www.338canada.ca/subscribe?co...
📊New episode of The Numbers: Predicting 2026 in Federal Politics
🎄Jingle Bell Curves, Deck the Sigmas, it's that time of year again!
www.338canada.ca/p/the-number...
🎄Jingle Bell Curves, Deck the Sigmas, it's that time of year again!
www.338canada.ca/p/the-number...
The Numbers: Predicting 2026 in Federal Politics
We took a beating for our 2025 predictions, so it's redemption time for Eric and Philippe.
www.338canada.ca
December 23, 2025 at 9:22 PM
📊New episode of The Numbers: Predicting 2026 in Federal Politics
🎄Jingle Bell Curves, Deck the Sigmas, it's that time of year again!
www.338canada.ca/p/the-number...
🎄Jingle Bell Curves, Deck the Sigmas, it's that time of year again!
www.338canada.ca/p/the-number...
I update the seat projections every Sunday.
December 23, 2025 at 6:28 PM
I update the seat projections every Sunday.
📊The final federal polls of 2025 have tightened up.
🔢See complete list here → 338canada.com/polls.htm
🔢See complete list here → 338canada.com/polls.htm
December 23, 2025 at 6:17 PM
📊The final federal polls of 2025 have tightened up.
🔢See complete list here → 338canada.com/polls.htm
🔢See complete list here → 338canada.com/polls.htm
📊Preferred PM tracker, Nanos Research (Nov.28-Dec.19, 2025):
🔴46% Mark Carney (-7)
🔵29% Pierre Poilievre (+3)
(Compared with previous 4-week wave)
338canada.com/20251219-nan...
🔴46% Mark Carney (-7)
🔵29% Pierre Poilievre (+3)
(Compared with previous 4-week wave)
338canada.com/20251219-nan...
338Canada | Nanos Research federal poll, December 2025
338canada.com
December 23, 2025 at 5:35 PM
📊Preferred PM tracker, Nanos Research (Nov.28-Dec.19, 2025):
🔴46% Mark Carney (-7)
🔵29% Pierre Poilievre (+3)
(Compared with previous 4-week wave)
338canada.com/20251219-nan...
🔴46% Mark Carney (-7)
🔵29% Pierre Poilievre (+3)
(Compared with previous 4-week wave)
338canada.com/20251219-nan...
La « montée hyperglycémique » du PLQ en 2025, ma chronique pour @lactualite.com → lactualite.com/politique/le...
December 19, 2025 at 10:00 PM
La « montée hyperglycémique » du PLQ en 2025, ma chronique pour @lactualite.com → lactualite.com/politique/le...
Mise à jour Qc125 | 19 décembre 2025
⚜️PQ 77
--------------majorité : 63 sièges
🔴PLQ 35
⚫️PCQ 7
🟠QS 4
🔵CAQ 2
www.qc125.ca/p/mise-a-jou...
⚜️PQ 77
--------------majorité : 63 sièges
🔴PLQ 35
⚫️PCQ 7
🟠QS 4
🔵CAQ 2
www.qc125.ca/p/mise-a-jou...
Mise à jour Qc125 : Ça promet pour 2026
Une année remplie de soubresauts se termine avec le Parti québécois toujours en territoire majoritaire, alors que s'amorce une année électorale sans précédent au Québec.
www.qc125.ca
December 19, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Mise à jour Qc125 | 19 décembre 2025
⚜️PQ 77
--------------majorité : 63 sièges
🔴PLQ 35
⚫️PCQ 7
🟠QS 4
🔵CAQ 2
www.qc125.ca/p/mise-a-jou...
⚜️PQ 77
--------------majorité : 63 sièges
🔴PLQ 35
⚫️PCQ 7
🟠QS 4
🔵CAQ 2
www.qc125.ca/p/mise-a-jou...
📊Une année remplie de soubresauts se termine avec le Parti québécois toujours en territoire majoritaire, alors que s'amorce une année électorale sans précédent au Québec.
⚜️Mise à jour Qc125 : Ça promet pour 2026 www.qc125.ca/p/mise-a-jou...
⚜️Mise à jour Qc125 : Ça promet pour 2026 www.qc125.ca/p/mise-a-jou...
Mise à jour Qc125 : Ça promet pour 2026
Une année remplie de soubresauts se termine avec le Parti québécois toujours en territoire majoritaire, alors que s'amorce une année électorale sans précédent au Québec.
www.qc125.ca
December 19, 2025 at 4:47 PM
📊Une année remplie de soubresauts se termine avec le Parti québécois toujours en territoire majoritaire, alors que s'amorce une année électorale sans précédent au Québec.
⚜️Mise à jour Qc125 : Ça promet pour 2026 www.qc125.ca/p/mise-a-jou...
⚜️Mise à jour Qc125 : Ça promet pour 2026 www.qc125.ca/p/mise-a-jou...
📊Léger: le PLQ au plancher, mais qui en profitera?
⚜️Malgré un mois chaotique pour les libéraux, le dernier sondage Léger montre que la CAQ peine toujours à dépasser le PLQ. Ma chronique → www.qc125.ca/p/leger-le-p...
⚜️Malgré un mois chaotique pour les libéraux, le dernier sondage Léger montre que la CAQ peine toujours à dépasser le PLQ. Ma chronique → www.qc125.ca/p/leger-le-p...
Léger: le PLQ au plancher, mais qui en profitera?
Malgré un mois chaotique pour les libéraux, le dernier sondage Léger montre que la CAQ peine toujours à dépasser le PLQ.
www.qc125.ca
December 18, 2025 at 4:33 PM
📊Léger: le PLQ au plancher, mais qui en profitera?
⚜️Malgré un mois chaotique pour les libéraux, le dernier sondage Léger montre que la CAQ peine toujours à dépasser le PLQ. Ma chronique → www.qc125.ca/p/leger-le-p...
⚜️Malgré un mois chaotique pour les libéraux, le dernier sondage Léger montre que la CAQ peine toujours à dépasser le PLQ. Ma chronique → www.qc125.ca/p/leger-le-p...