Michael Clarke
mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social
Michael Clarke
@mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social

Defence and Security Analyst. Former Director General, Royal United Services Institute. Former Professor of Defence Studies, King's College London. Now Visiting Professor at KCL and University of Exeter and holds Fellowships at a number of institutions. .. more

Michael Clarke is a British academic who specialises in defence studies. He was Director of the Royal United Services Institute from 2007 to 2015. Since the start of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, he has served as Sky News' security and defence analyst. .. more

Political science 78%
Sociology 14%

This may not be it, but I sense that Ukr has been preparing for one or more 'spectaculars' if only to help reverse the Putin/US narrative that Ukr is militarily close to defeat. The Russian ground offensive has run out of steam & now Ukr wants to hit hard to show them - & the world - that they can.
❗️🇷🇺Russian monitoring channels write that a number of their regions are under combined attack by cruise missiles "Flamingo", "Storm Shadow/Scalp", "Neptune" and "Peklo" missile drones, as well as Himars missiles, and there is a threat even to the Moscow region.

Reposted by Michael Clarke

❗️🇷🇺Russian monitoring channels write that a number of their regions are under combined attack by cruise missiles "Flamingo", "Storm Shadow/Scalp", "Neptune" and "Peklo" missile drones, as well as Himars missiles, and there is a threat even to the Moscow region.

This is part of a good 2023 Russian joke during the Sweden / Finland accession issue. When God heard that all Russians automatically go to heaven, heaven applied to join NATO. (Brits & Russians do share a certain sense of humour).
More nuclear threats from the Russian propagandists should Ukraine get Tomahawks.

Solovyev has said that "they [the West] will die but we'll go to heaven" at least three times in the past couple of weeks.

Reposted by Michael Clarke

More nuclear threats from the Russian propagandists should Ukraine get Tomahawks.

Solovyev has said that "they [the West] will die but we'll go to heaven" at least three times in the past couple of weeks.

As I said last week - there will be a lot of veto activity before anything is possible on EU membership, so it will be up to bilateral relations with Ukraine and Moldova to help wherever other supportive states can. But it will be difficult.
🇳🇱❗️🇺🇦🇲🇩 The Netherlands is against proposal, which would allow Ukraine and Moldova to open the first chapter of the negotiations on accession to the EU, bypassing the Hungarian veto, — Dutch PM

The Netherlands refuses to change the principle of unanimity for the opening of the negotiating blocs.

Reposted by Michael Clarke

🇳🇱❗️🇺🇦🇲🇩 The Netherlands is against proposal, which would allow Ukraine and Moldova to open the first chapter of the negotiations on accession to the EU, bypassing the Hungarian veto, — Dutch PM

The Netherlands refuses to change the principle of unanimity for the opening of the negotiating blocs.

The idea that everyone in the military must meet 'the highest male standards' echos the approach of Montgomery taking over 8th Army and Slim with 14th Army in 2WW. But that was when the military was a much simpler animal. There is only room for so much Bruce Willis now.
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I can't imagine this speech has gone down well with hundreds of experienced senior officers - patronising & insulting by turns. It stressed all the most obvious military points that they will have conveyed to their novice officers and cadets dozens of times. So ill-judged.
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❗️🇺🇸Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth: We have the strongest, deadliest, and most well-prepared military on the planet.

I can't imagine this speech has gone down well with hundreds of experienced senior officers - patronising & insulting by turns. It stressed all the most obvious military points that they will have conveyed to their novice officers and cadets dozens of times. So ill-judged.
bsky.app/profile/mili...
❗️🇺🇸Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth: We have the strongest, deadliest, and most well-prepared military on the planet.

It will be a long road to EU membership and Budapest and Bratislava will both try to veto any progress on behalf of Putin. But Romania has a natural inerest in helping Moldova develop and a lot can be done bilaterally by many European states.
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Reposted by Michael Clarke

The pro-European party won Moldova’s election but obstacles to join the EU remain
The pro-European party won Moldova’s election but obstacles to join the EU remain
Russia’s campaign to amplify societal distrust continues as membership talks have stalled
www.theguardian.com

Congratulations to the brave Maia Sandu and the PAS in Moldova on their convincing election win, despite a really big Kremlin campaign to get their clients back into government in Chisinau. A small piece of good news in the big picture of liberal democracy under terminal threat during our lifetime.

All over the world, governments have taken to branding everything they don't like as 'terrorist' because most of the legal restraints come off in the pursuit of 'counter-terrorism'. It's the sad, long term consequence of US stupidity after 9/11 in 2001 in creating a 'war on terror'. They all do it.
Illegitimate Speaker of the Parliament Shalva Papuashvili called the daily peaceful protesters a "terrorist group."

Reposted by Michael Clarke

Illegitimate Speaker of the Parliament Shalva Papuashvili called the daily peaceful protesters a "terrorist group."

Most Russian refineries produce a range of oil products, including both gasoline and diesel, so in theory the Russians could run short of diesel, BUT the gasoline domestic market is much greater and more complex so is affected first. And even if diesel were short, the military will still get it.
@mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social
Professor noted you said on Sky news that Ukraine strikes on refinery's won't really effect Russian army as they run on diesel. Is there a way for Ukraine to hit diesel production.

Reposted by Michael Clarke

@mikeclarke2020s.bsky.social
Professor noted you said on Sky news that Ukraine strikes on refinery's won't really effect Russian army as they run on diesel. Is there a way for Ukraine to hit diesel production.

Yes. 30 a month at present, but hoping to move to 200 a month by the end of the year and then many more after that. BUT, they still need more western components, more cash for expansion, and need to disperse the production centres to protect them from Russian attacks.
🦾 Flamingo missile with a range of 3,000 km is already in mass production in Ukraine, — The Economist

‼️ The publication writes that one missile will be produced per day.

Reposted by Michael Clarke

🦾 Flamingo missile with a range of 3,000 km is already in mass production in Ukraine, — The Economist

‼️ The publication writes that one missile will be produced per day.

If only.......
☕️If you’d like to support me, I’d be truly grateful. Every coffee you buy helps us keep going.

You can contribute any amount here: buymeacoffee.com/24HoursUkraine

Thank you for your kindness and generosity!

Reposted by Michael Clarke

☕️If you’d like to support me, I’d be truly grateful. Every coffee you buy helps us keep going.

You can contribute any amount here: buymeacoffee.com/24HoursUkraine

Thank you for your kindness and generosity!

At least one aspect of Russian barbarity - and this is open and shut genocidal policy - seems to be getting through to the US mainstream. Though I doubt it will make any difference to White House thinking.

All discussions about a Ukraine peace deal and western 'reassurance forces' etc are gesture politics ahead of Trump's failure to close a deal. The European intention is to stay close to US while it zig-zags out of the war, because it matters to future fighting who Trump will blame for his failure.

Interesting that this man was a 100% MAGA sceptic about Ukraine a few months ago. But to his credit, he has investigated the reality of the war and had the honesty to change his opinion on it. Whether it influences Trump is, of course, another matter.
❗️Trump's spiritual pastor, Mark Burns, gave a restrained critique of him after his meeting with Putin:

"This is not a time for empty gestures. This is a time for bold leadership. Peace is not achieved by silencing victims or rewarding the aggressor. It is achieved by standing firm on principles."

Reposted by Michael Clarke

❗️Trump's spiritual pastor, Mark Burns, gave a restrained critique of him after his meeting with Putin:

"This is not a time for empty gestures. This is a time for bold leadership. Peace is not achieved by silencing victims or rewarding the aggressor. It is achieved by standing firm on principles."

Reposted by Michael Clarke

Day 261 of #GeorgiaProtests

Today, protesters are having a Ukrainian march in support of Ukraine at the Alaska talks.

Georgian, Ukrainian, and American flags are seen.

"Victory to Ukraine! Victory to Georgia! Down with Russia's rotten Empire!"

Reposted by Michael Clarke

1/ 6 civil society organisations say they received another letter from Anti-Corruption Bureau on August 11 accusing them of violating Georgian Dream’s ‘FARA’.

That's the general idea. Another Trump 'deadline' passes with his fierce threats replaced yet again by another huge diplomatic win, presented on a plate, to Putin. The Russians can hardly believe their luck having such a massive man-child in the White House just now.
❗️Putin is likely deliberately offering an unacceptable offer to Ukraine in order to delay sanctions as well as meaningful ceasefire talks and to blame Ukraine for the failure of the talks, — Institute for the Study of War
❗️Putin is likely deliberately offering an unacceptable offer to Ukraine in order to delay sanctions as well as meaningful ceasefire talks and to blame Ukraine for the failure of the talks, — Institute for the Study of War

If I were a more cynical person I might have thought that Trump's nonsensical nuclear submarine announcement served to distract attention from something else - like labour statistics, or Epstein files. Here is the non-event explained.
www.thetimes.com/article/69bc...
Why did Trump move his best nuclear deterrent? Not for strategic gain
The US president says he has deployed submarines closer to Russia — but this would only make the boats more vulnerable to attack
www.thetimes.com

GAZA And if you are also wondering about 'collective punishment' - that is also illegal under Art 33 of the 4th Geneva Convention (1949) and its Additional Protocol I (1977) Art 75(2)(d) & Additional Protocol II (1977) Art 4(2)(b). Also in Hague Regulation (1907), Art 50. Also in ICC Articles 7 & 8.