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US Renewable Energy Projects Face Ongoing Interconnection Challenges Amid Grid Capacity Pressures #ISONE #RenewableEnergy #InterconnectionQueue #USGridCapacity #EnergyProjects #GridChallenges
US Renewable Energy Projects Face Ongoing Interconnection Challenges Amid Grid Capacity Pressures
Enverus has released its 2025 Interconnection Queue Outlook, detailing power generation and transmission projects seeking connection to the U.S. grid. Utilizing a proprietary machine-learning model, Enverus assigns success probabilities to queued projects, allowing for analysis of trends and insights related to portfolio valuation and queue dynamics. Interconnection queue challenges remain a significant obstacle for energy projects, and this outlook provides a data-driven perspective crucial for developers, investors, and policymakers navigating the evolving energy landscape. Ryan Luther, research director for Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), emphasizes that ISO activity will be a key focus for developers and investors. Generous tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act and updated EPA regulations mandating coal-fired power plant retirements have spurred substantial demand for renewable energy projects, overwhelming interconnection queues and exceeding grid operator capacity. Recent EIR analysis indicates approximately 90% of renewable generation projects don't advance beyond the interconnection queue. Markets including NYISO, SPP, PJM, and ISO-NE experience notably higher suspension rates, ranging from 46% to 79%, compared to 20% in ERCOT, CAISO, and MISO. Projects in these regions don’t show significant improvement in completion probability until construction begins. Silvia Alborghetti of zhero highlights congestion, competition, aging infrastructure, and interconnection bottlenecks as primary obstacles to project siting and renewable energy delivery. Enverus’ interconnection queue data provides a comprehensive view of variables like asset economics, power demand growth, transmission lines, and substation capacity. The recent acquisition of Pearl Street Technologies strengthens Enverus' capabilities, allowing them to serve transmission providers, developers, and policy advisors. Andrea Braccialarghe of zhero notes the value of Enverus' data for leadership decision-making regarding investments. Significant challenges revealed in the 2025 Outlook include prolonged delays – particularly in CAISO, with project timelines averaging nearly eight years – and higher suspension rates in specific markets. Enverus' machine learning model predicts that only approximately 10% of projects currently in queues are likely to successfully come online within the next three years.
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May 7, 2025 at 9:42 AM