Achim Zeileis
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Achim Zeileis
@zeileis.org
1.7K followers 240 following 250 posts
statistics, science, software

https://www.zeileis.org/
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zeileis.org
🚨 New CRAN Task View: Anomaly Detection
#rstats #anomalydetection

By Priyanga Dilini Talagala, Rob J. Hyndman @robjhyndman.com, Gaetano Romano

URL: cran.r-project.org/view=Anomaly...
Screenshot of the CRAN Task View "Anomaly Detection" at https://CRAN.R-project.org/view=AnomalyDetection
October 22, 2025 at 10:39 AM
zeileis.org
📢 PSA for colleagues at @uniinnsbruck.bsky.social

📈 New release of #latex and @quarto.org presentation styles in UIBK corporate design

- LaTeX beamer theme with more banners
- Quarto+beamer for PDF
- Quarto+revealjs for HTML
- Code with #rstats and #python

Link: www.uibk.ac.at/de/public-re...
Title page of a slide deck generated with the new Quarto+beamer style files of Universität Innsbruck. The logo of the university is shown in the top left corner. In the center is a banner image that spans the whole width of the slide and shows the view over the Western end of the Inn valley as seen from the Nordkette mountain ridge. Close up on the right-hand side there is a a rocky mountain slope partially covered with white snow. In the distance more mountains with snow-covered tops can be seen. The rest of the slide shows the title and author information (left-aligned) and the CC-BY logo in the bottom-right corner. The information is: PDF Presentations Using the Universität Innsbruck Corporate Design An Implementation via Quarto and beamer Gabriele Mustermann Title page of a slide deck generated with the new Quarto+revealjs style files of Universität Innsbruck. The logo of the university is shown in the top left corner. In the center is a banner image that spans the whole width of the slide and shows students entering the main building of the university. The photo is blurry giving more focus to the seal of the university shown partially on the left-hand side. The rest of the slide shows the title and author information (left-aligned): HTML Presentations Using the Universität Innsbruck Corporate Design An Implementation via Quarto and reveal.js Gabriele Mustermann (Gabriele.Mustermann@uibk.ac.at) https://www.uibk.ac.at/statistics 2025-10-14 The footer line shows the hamburger navigation menu, a small university logo, the footer text "Quarto/reveal.js presentation theme" and the slide number.
October 22, 2025 at 7:52 AM
zeileis.org
If the entire sheet was not scanned correctly, e.g., rotated too much or scanner markings were damaged:

nops_fix() can open an interactive form in the browser to enter all results.
Screenshot of a sheet that could not be scanned due to rotation and damaged scanner markers. The sheet is shown in a browser next to an interactive web form where all details from the exam sheet can be entered manually. The entered information includes the student registration number, the exam ID, the 3-digit type code, and check-boxes for all answers.
September 16, 2025 at 7:25 AM
zeileis.org
Typical problems in multiple-choice NOPS exams:

Check-boxes are not marked correctly (with an X in the center) or not filled fully (to cancel the results).

nops_fix() can go through these and prompt interactively for corrections.
September 16, 2025 at 7:24 AM
zeileis.org
🚨 Relaunch of CRAN Task View: Clinical Trial Design, Monitoring, and Analysis
#rstats

Complete rewrite by an int'l team of experts in #clinicaltrials

Ya Wang, Thomas Jaki @thomasjaki.bsky.social, Laura Pascasio Harris, Orla Doyle, Elias Laurin Meyer, Wilmar Igl

cran.r-project.org/view=Clinica...
Screenshot of the CRAN Task View "Clinical Trial Design, Monitoring, and Analysis" at https://CRAN.R-project.org/view=ClinicalTrials
September 5, 2025 at 9:10 AM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for the #WEURO2025 finale using our machine learning ensemble. #ENGESP #ENG #ESP
Probability to win 51.2% vs. 48.8%

🥅 In normal time:
Mean goals: 1.1-1.1
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 36.4%
Draw 29.3%
🇪🇸 34.3%

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match in normal time:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-1 with a probability of 13.4%.
July 27, 2025 at 3:14 PM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's match at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Semifinal: #GERESP #GER #ESP
Probability to advance: 49.7% vs. 50.3%

🥅 In normal time:
Mean goals: 1.2-1.2
🇩🇪 36.0%
Draw 27.4%
🇪🇸 36.6%

Probability heatmap for the possible scores in normal time:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-1 with a probability of 13%.
July 23, 2025 at 2:53 PM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's match at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Semifinal: #ENGITA #ENG #ITA
Probability to advance: 76.3% vs. 23.7%

🥅 In normal time:
Mean goals: 1.6-0.6
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 61.2%
Draw 24.4%
🇮🇹 14.4%

Probability heatmap for the possible scores in normal time:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-0 with a probability of 17%.
July 22, 2025 at 7:09 PM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's match at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Quarterfinal: #FRAGER #FRA #GER
Probability to advance: 48.7% vs. 51.3%

🥅 In normal time:
Mean goals: 1.1-1.1
🇫🇷 34.4%
Draw 28.8%
🇩🇪 36.8%

Probability heatmap for the possible scores in normal time:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-1 with a probability of 13.3%.
July 19, 2025 at 5:05 PM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Quarterfinal: #ESPSUI #ESP #SUI
Probability to advance: 76.4% vs. 23.6%

🥅 In normal time:
Mean goals: 2.4-1.2
🇪🇸 64.9%
Draw 18.3%
🇨🇭 16.8%

Probability heatmap for the possible scores in normal time:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 2-1 with a probability of 9.5%.
July 18, 2025 at 11:46 AM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Quarterfinal: #SWEENG #SWE #ENG
Probability to advance: 26.6% vs. 73.4%

🥅 In normal time:
Mean goals: 0.7-1.6
🇸🇪 16.6%
Draw 25.4%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 58.0%

Probability heatmap for the possible scores in normal time:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 0-1 with a probability of 16.4%.
July 17, 2025 at 5:52 PM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's match at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Quarterfinal: #NORITA #NOR #ITA
Probability to advance: 43.0% vs. 57.0%

🥅 In normal time:
Mean goals: 1.0-1.2
🇳🇴 29.6%
Draw 28.5%
🇮🇹 41.9%

Probability heatmap for the possible scores in normal time:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 0-1 with a probability of 13.2%.
July 16, 2025 at 5:51 PM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Group D: #ENGWAL #ENG #WAL
🥅 Mean goals: 2.6-0.5

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 82.0%
Draw 12.8%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 5.1%

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 2-0 with a probability of 15.4%.
July 13, 2025 at 6:40 PM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Group D: #NEDFRA #NED #FRA
🥅 Mean goals: 0.9-1.3

🇳🇱 25.9%
Draw 28.2%
🇫🇷 45.9%

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 0-1 with a probability of 14.3%.
July 13, 2025 at 6:39 PM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Group C: #POLDEN #POL #DEN
🥅 Mean goals: 0.9-1.5

🇵🇱 21.5%
Draw 25.7%
🇩🇰 52.8%

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 0-1 with a probability of 13.7%.
July 12, 2025 at 4:52 PM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Group C: #SWEGER #SWE #GER
🥅 Mean goals: 0.8-1.6

🇸🇪 18.2%
Draw 25.3%
🇩🇪 56.4%

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 0-1 with a probability of 15.2%.
July 12, 2025 at 4:51 PM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Group B: #PORBEL #POR #BEL
🥅 Mean goals: 1.0-1.4

🇵🇹 27.0%
Draw 26.9%
🇧🇪 46.1%

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-1 with a probability of 12.7%.
July 11, 2025 at 3:50 PM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Group B: #ITAESP #ITA #ESP
🥅 Mean goals: 0.8-1.7

🇮🇹 16.8%
Draw 23.2%
🇪🇸 60.0%

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 0-1 with a probability of 13.7%.
July 11, 2025 at 3:49 PM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Group A: #NORISL #NOR #ISL
🥅 Mean goals: 1.4-0.8

🇳🇴 49.7%
Draw 27.5%
🇮🇸 22.8%

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-0 with a probability of 14.9%.
July 10, 2025 at 12:22 PM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Group A: #FINSUI #FIN #SUI
🥅 Mean goals: 0.7-1.9

🇫🇮 13.8%
Draw 21.3%
🇨🇭 64.9%

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 0-1 with a probability of 13.6%.
July 10, 2025 at 12:21 PM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Group D: #FRAWAL #FRA #WAL
🥅 Mean goals: 2.6-0.5

🇫🇷 81.9%
Draw 12.9%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 5.2%

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 2-0 with a probability of 15.4%.
July 9, 2025 at 9:14 AM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Group D: #ENGNED #ENG #NED
🥅 Mean goals: 1.5-0.8

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 54.8%
Draw 26.3%
🇳🇱 18.9%

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-0 with a probability of 15.8%.
July 9, 2025 at 9:12 AM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Group C: #POLSWE #POL #SWE
🥅 Mean goals: 0.9-2.2

🇵🇱 13.0%
Draw 18.5%
🇸🇪 68.6%

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 0-2 with a probability of 11.4%.
July 8, 2025 at 2:35 PM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Group C: #GERDEN #GER #DEN
🥅 Mean goals: 1.8-0.5

🇩🇪 68.8%
Draw 21.6%
🇩🇰 9.6%

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-0 with a probability of 18.4%.
July 8, 2025 at 2:34 PM
zeileis.org
⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #WEURO2025 using our machine learning ensemble.

In Group B: #PORITA #POR #ITA
🥅 Mean goals: 0.8-1.4

🇵🇹 22.0%
Draw 27.4%
🇮🇹 50.6%

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match:
Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 0-1 with a probability of 15.2%.
July 7, 2025 at 3:30 PM