The team at ChinaFile asked eight of us to assess the state of play in US-China relations and who has the upper hand in the ongoing negotiations. I think it's pretty clear.

Beijing is showing its capabilities and biding its time. And it's working.

www.chinafile.com/conversation...

After 14 years, I think the time has come to acknowledge that the "Rebalance to Asia" has failed.

I've spent the last decade writing and thinking about how to make the rebalance successful, so this is a painful realization.

A thread on my new piece for RSIS...

Is the "Indo-Pacific" dead? 🪦

Today the Pentagon issued a statement labeling the "Asia-Pacific" the priority theater.

Coming ahead of the National Defense Strategy release and amidst heightened tensions with India, this will definitely raise some eyebrows!

Today was a tough day.

Most mornings the last decade my day started with a phone call from Rich Armitage. But not this morning.

Rich was a friend, a mentor, and a business partner. He was my biggest supporter (and sometimes my toughest critic).

He was a giant. What a life.

🍿

I'm particularly thankful for the generous early reviews from some wonderful scholars and advisors

Over the course of this project, I've acquired many debts to supportive friends, mentors, and institutions

I can't thank everyone who made this possible, but am so appreciate of your guidance and encouragement

Today's the day: Tides of Fortune is officially released!

I'm so excited to get to share this book with the world after over a decade of work on this project.

We've got a video explainer coming soon, and a bunch of launch events, but for now, a few words of thanks...

So China will likely continue to invest in power projection, but face increasing costs/risks in doing so.

How should the United States respond? Invest in a three part force mix:
1) Mass (small and cheap systems)
2) Stealth (SSNs and B-21s)
3) Power Projection (CVNs, etc.)

But China's embrace of power projection is terribly timed.

As the war in Ukraine has shown, the balance between control and denial has shifted.

The control-denial balance now favors denial, disadvantaging traditional power projection.

This has been underway for 200 years!

In Tides of Fortune, I argue that China is following the path of a typical rising power.

As Chinese leaders came to view China as strong around 2008, they invested more in power projection.

This was inevitable. It is what strong and rising powers do historically.

One more week until Tides of Fortune is released!

Feels good to finally hold a copy in my hand. So now it is real, but whether it is spectacular will be up to others to judge :)

yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...

I frequently get asked how Donald Trump's personal interactions might shape US relationships in Asia over the next four years.

Here's my take for RSIS:
- Trump prizes "strong" (and conservative) leaders
- Alignment with the US is not a precondition

www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publica...

I give up.

A big thank you to friends in Japan for hosting our group from AEI last week. A great series of visits and conversations.

www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/press/...

I fear that a serious crisis is unfolding at Second Thomas Shoal. China appears determined to prevent resupply efforts by the Philippines, as they did most dangerously in 2014.

Read a short summary of that case here: amti.csis.org/counter-co-2...

Risky days ahead. Buckle up.