Luke Gromen
@xlukegromen.bsky.social
Founder & President, Forest for the Trees (FFTT). Author
of"The Mr. X Interviews, Volumes I & |1:" | never solicit via
DM's. RT not endorsements.
of"The Mr. X Interviews, Volumes I & |1:" | never solicit via
DM's. RT not endorsements.
Chart rhymes with Catholic private school enrollment.
If you had to convert to Catholicism in order to save your kids from being enrolled in public school during COVID & then after to avoid all of the nonsense associated w/COVID & what came after, would you?
I would.
If you had to convert to Catholicism in order to save your kids from being enrolled in public school during COVID & then after to avoid all of the nonsense associated w/COVID & what came after, would you?
I would.
August 28, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Chart rhymes with Catholic private school enrollment.
If you had to convert to Catholicism in order to save your kids from being enrolled in public school during COVID & then after to avoid all of the nonsense associated w/COVID & what came after, would you?
I would.
If you had to convert to Catholicism in order to save your kids from being enrolled in public school during COVID & then after to avoid all of the nonsense associated w/COVID & what came after, would you?
I would.
“You down with YCC?”
“Yeah you know me!”
“Yeah you know me!”
August 28, 2025 at 12:11 PM
“You down with YCC?”
“Yeah you know me!”
“Yeah you know me!”
Oct-2008: US govt invests $250B into failing US banks…Wall Street cheers
Aug-2025: US govt invests into US defense industrial base that is losing to China & that just got outproduced 4-to-1 in Ukraine by Russia…Wall Street boos
Why the difference in reaction? 🤔
Aug-2025: US govt invests into US defense industrial base that is losing to China & that just got outproduced 4-to-1 in Ukraine by Russia…Wall Street boos
Why the difference in reaction? 🤔
August 28, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Oct-2008: US govt invests $250B into failing US banks…Wall Street cheers
Aug-2025: US govt invests into US defense industrial base that is losing to China & that just got outproduced 4-to-1 in Ukraine by Russia…Wall Street boos
Why the difference in reaction? 🤔
Aug-2025: US govt invests into US defense industrial base that is losing to China & that just got outproduced 4-to-1 in Ukraine by Russia…Wall Street boos
Why the difference in reaction? 🤔
Great point, and IMO that was further proof of multi-currency oil is live....why would oil rise when Israel bombed Iran if the Petrodollar was no longer functioning? Gold/oil ratio should've risen on Israel bombing Iran under dead Petrodollar, and that's what happened👇
August 28, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Great point, and IMO that was further proof of multi-currency oil is live....why would oil rise when Israel bombed Iran if the Petrodollar was no longer functioning? Gold/oil ratio should've risen on Israel bombing Iran under dead Petrodollar, and that's what happened👇
That's just a function of the level of the USD price of oil though. See the chart below - oil at $15-25 from 1990-2010, US oil production down to 5m b/d; USD fell 60-90% v. oil (oil to $75-150), US produces 13m b/d.
US has more oil at the right USD price of oil. @freegolds
US has more oil at the right USD price of oil. @freegolds
August 28, 2025 at 12:08 PM
That's just a function of the level of the USD price of oil though. See the chart below - oil at $15-25 from 1990-2010, US oil production down to 5m b/d; USD fell 60-90% v. oil (oil to $75-150), US produces 13m b/d.
US has more oil at the right USD price of oil. @freegolds
US has more oil at the right USD price of oil. @freegolds
With all the talk in mainstream media denigrating Trump’s tariffs, it is critical to understand that neoliberal free trade of the past 25-40 yrs have left the US begging China (literally) for military grade rare earths.
Any tariff discussion that does not address this fact is 💩
Any tariff discussion that does not address this fact is 💩
August 28, 2025 at 12:07 PM
With all the talk in mainstream media denigrating Trump’s tariffs, it is critical to understand that neoliberal free trade of the past 25-40 yrs have left the US begging China (literally) for military grade rare earths.
Any tariff discussion that does not address this fact is 💩
Any tariff discussion that does not address this fact is 💩
39% tariff rate on Switzerland presently
"upend" might be apt description
"upend" might be apt description
August 28, 2025 at 12:06 PM
39% tariff rate on Switzerland presently
"upend" might be apt description
"upend" might be apt description
0% yielding bonds of infinite duration & finite issuance have been MASSIVELY bid since summer 2020 though👇
Gold is just a 0% yielding-bond of finite issuance, infinite duration, and infinite face value (LT UST duration = negative real yield bonds of infinite issuance, finite duration & face value.
Gold is just a 0% yielding-bond of finite issuance, infinite duration, and infinite face value (LT UST duration = negative real yield bonds of infinite issuance, finite duration & face value.
August 28, 2025 at 12:05 PM
0% yielding bonds of infinite duration & finite issuance have been MASSIVELY bid since summer 2020 though👇
Gold is just a 0% yielding-bond of finite issuance, infinite duration, and infinite face value (LT UST duration = negative real yield bonds of infinite issuance, finite duration & face value.
Gold is just a 0% yielding-bond of finite issuance, infinite duration, and infinite face value (LT UST duration = negative real yield bonds of infinite issuance, finite duration & face value.
Economists miss it because they are paid to miss it, because the solution is letting gold float (which has major implications for USD and USD hegemony).
Settle trade in gold that floats in all currencies. Gold at $6,000 = 4.0 CNY v. USD
Gold at $12,000 = 2.0 CNY v. USD>
Settle trade in gold that floats in all currencies. Gold at $6,000 = 4.0 CNY v. USD
Gold at $12,000 = 2.0 CNY v. USD>
August 28, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Economists miss it because they are paid to miss it, because the solution is letting gold float (which has major implications for USD and USD hegemony).
Settle trade in gold that floats in all currencies. Gold at $6,000 = 4.0 CNY v. USD
Gold at $12,000 = 2.0 CNY v. USD>
Settle trade in gold that floats in all currencies. Gold at $6,000 = 4.0 CNY v. USD
Gold at $12,000 = 2.0 CNY v. USD>
BOTH sides prevent free trade in assets that would balance trade.
If the US let gold settle trade, it would bid up gold.
At $6,000 gold, CNY would trade at 4.0 v. USD.
At $12,000 gold, CNY would trade at 2.0 v. USD.
Have to let gold settle trade to cut the Gordian Knot.
If the US let gold settle trade, it would bid up gold.
At $6,000 gold, CNY would trade at 4.0 v. USD.
At $12,000 gold, CNY would trade at 2.0 v. USD.
Have to let gold settle trade to cut the Gordian Knot.
August 28, 2025 at 12:04 PM
BOTH sides prevent free trade in assets that would balance trade.
If the US let gold settle trade, it would bid up gold.
At $6,000 gold, CNY would trade at 4.0 v. USD.
At $12,000 gold, CNY would trade at 2.0 v. USD.
Have to let gold settle trade to cut the Gordian Knot.
If the US let gold settle trade, it would bid up gold.
At $6,000 gold, CNY would trade at 4.0 v. USD.
At $12,000 gold, CNY would trade at 2.0 v. USD.
Have to let gold settle trade to cut the Gordian Knot.
The US could revalue CNY v. USD for China easily enough: Revalue gold in USD to a more competitive rate v. CNY gold.
IE - $6,000 USD gold with CNY 24,000 gold = CNY of 4.0 v. USD.
China has massively devalued CNY v. gold in last 2, 5, 10 years 👇
@Brad_Setser
IE - $6,000 USD gold with CNY 24,000 gold = CNY of 4.0 v. USD.
China has massively devalued CNY v. gold in last 2, 5, 10 years 👇
@Brad_Setser
August 28, 2025 at 12:04 PM
The US could revalue CNY v. USD for China easily enough: Revalue gold in USD to a more competitive rate v. CNY gold.
IE - $6,000 USD gold with CNY 24,000 gold = CNY of 4.0 v. USD.
China has massively devalued CNY v. gold in last 2, 5, 10 years 👇
@Brad_Setser
IE - $6,000 USD gold with CNY 24,000 gold = CNY of 4.0 v. USD.
China has massively devalued CNY v. gold in last 2, 5, 10 years 👇
@Brad_Setser
Because they ARE illiquid shitcoins (chart below of LT UST futures v. gold since Central Banks stopped supporting UST mkt in late 2014). :)
One way trade down 80% in real terms, & yet most western investors have loved them & hated gold the whole (1-way) ride down
One way trade down 80% in real terms, & yet most western investors have loved them & hated gold the whole (1-way) ride down
August 28, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Because they ARE illiquid shitcoins (chart below of LT UST futures v. gold since Central Banks stopped supporting UST mkt in late 2014). :)
One way trade down 80% in real terms, & yet most western investors have loved them & hated gold the whole (1-way) ride down
One way trade down 80% in real terms, & yet most western investors have loved them & hated gold the whole (1-way) ride down
And US workforce with a disability has gone up 6 million since January 2021 & up 1.6m in the last 5 mths alone, likely adding to wage pressures up
August 28, 2025 at 12:00 PM
And US workforce with a disability has gone up 6 million since January 2021 & up 1.6m in the last 5 mths alone, likely adding to wage pressures up
the USD system as structured the past 54 years has become a threat to US national security so obvious even mainstream financial media is reporting on it now 👇
Wall St. banks will either get with the program or get run over by US DoD:
Wall St. banks will either get with the program or get run over by US DoD:
August 28, 2025 at 11:59 AM
the USD system as structured the past 54 years has become a threat to US national security so obvious even mainstream financial media is reporting on it now 👇
Wall St. banks will either get with the program or get run over by US DoD:
Wall St. banks will either get with the program or get run over by US DoD:
Interesting timing, and an admission the USD has fallen from 1/42 oz to 1/3300 oz of gold in the past 54 yrs, a CAGR of 8.4% (which, since everyone suddenly cares about economic data accuracy, is MUCH higher than the official reported US inflation rate of the past 54 years.)
August 28, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Interesting timing, and an admission the USD has fallen from 1/42 oz to 1/3300 oz of gold in the past 54 yrs, a CAGR of 8.4% (which, since everyone suddenly cares about economic data accuracy, is MUCH higher than the official reported US inflation rate of the past 54 years.)
It's almost as if China has been moving to a gold-based CNY (as PBOC began saying in 2009, then again in 2014, & in 2015, & as the late great Harald Malmgren said in 2019 China was "quietly aiming for gold-based CNY":)
CNY oil = China can control USD gold price. Gold in CNY👇
CNY oil = China can control USD gold price. Gold in CNY👇
August 28, 2025 at 11:58 AM
It's almost as if China has been moving to a gold-based CNY (as PBOC began saying in 2009, then again in 2014, & in 2015, & as the late great Harald Malmgren said in 2019 China was "quietly aiming for gold-based CNY":)
CNY oil = China can control USD gold price. Gold in CNY👇
CNY oil = China can control USD gold price. Gold in CNY👇
US 10y Term Premiums (blue, RS) v. 10y Chinese government bond yields (red, LS), 3q14-present.
Consensus says Chinese 10y CGB yields are declining b/c China is in a deflationary death spiral, but few asking why US 10y TP's stopped following 10y CGB yields lower in 2022.
Consensus says Chinese 10y CGB yields are declining b/c China is in a deflationary death spiral, but few asking why US 10y TP's stopped following 10y CGB yields lower in 2022.
August 28, 2025 at 11:57 AM
US 10y Term Premiums (blue, RS) v. 10y Chinese government bond yields (red, LS), 3q14-present.
Consensus says Chinese 10y CGB yields are declining b/c China is in a deflationary death spiral, but few asking why US 10y TP's stopped following 10y CGB yields lower in 2022.
Consensus says Chinese 10y CGB yields are declining b/c China is in a deflationary death spiral, but few asking why US 10y TP's stopped following 10y CGB yields lower in 2022.
RE: "Recalibrate to the new information" -
US 10y Term Premiums v. 10y CGB yields, 3q14-present.
Why have US 10y TP's stopped declining on China's "deflationary death cycle"?
I'm not the one needing to "recalibrate to the new information" it seems
US 10y Term Premiums v. 10y CGB yields, 3q14-present.
Why have US 10y TP's stopped declining on China's "deflationary death cycle"?
I'm not the one needing to "recalibrate to the new information" it seems
August 28, 2025 at 11:57 AM
RE: "Recalibrate to the new information" -
US 10y Term Premiums v. 10y CGB yields, 3q14-present.
Why have US 10y TP's stopped declining on China's "deflationary death cycle"?
I'm not the one needing to "recalibrate to the new information" it seems
US 10y Term Premiums v. 10y CGB yields, 3q14-present.
Why have US 10y TP's stopped declining on China's "deflationary death cycle"?
I'm not the one needing to "recalibrate to the new information" it seems
Gonna be epic when more market participants figure this out
So far, lefties and righties are both mad about it for their own reasons… but they haven’t realized the above yet.
When they do👇… fun will ensue
So far, lefties and righties are both mad about it for their own reasons… but they haven’t realized the above yet.
When they do👇… fun will ensue
August 28, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Gonna be epic when more market participants figure this out
So far, lefties and righties are both mad about it for their own reasons… but they haven’t realized the above yet.
When they do👇… fun will ensue
So far, lefties and righties are both mad about it for their own reasons… but they haven’t realized the above yet.
When they do👇… fun will ensue
The US military ultimately backs the USD…
…but Chinese rare earths ultimately back the US military. 🤯
US industrial policy cometh…bigly.
…but Chinese rare earths ultimately back the US military. 🤯
US industrial policy cometh…bigly.
August 28, 2025 at 11:55 AM
The US military ultimately backs the USD…
…but Chinese rare earths ultimately back the US military. 🤯
US industrial policy cometh…bigly.
…but Chinese rare earths ultimately back the US military. 🤯
US industrial policy cometh…bigly.
Unless you're Russian, why do you care about whether Russians can protest or not? If you're not Russian, it's none of your business.
In the meantime, per capita Russian GDP is up 10x since Putin has been in office, so perhaps that's why Russians don't seem to mind things
In the meantime, per capita Russian GDP is up 10x since Putin has been in office, so perhaps that's why Russians don't seem to mind things
August 28, 2025 at 11:54 AM
Unless you're Russian, why do you care about whether Russians can protest or not? If you're not Russian, it's none of your business.
In the meantime, per capita Russian GDP is up 10x since Putin has been in office, so perhaps that's why Russians don't seem to mind things
In the meantime, per capita Russian GDP is up 10x since Putin has been in office, so perhaps that's why Russians don't seem to mind things
Thanks for your kind words and support. I sometimes feel like I'm taking crazy pills when I see how people react to the same thing I'm watching.
Fascinating times, & always good to see the "campfires" of other "gentle people" 🙏
Fascinating times, & always good to see the "campfires" of other "gentle people" 🙏
August 28, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Thanks for your kind words and support. I sometimes feel like I'm taking crazy pills when I see how people react to the same thing I'm watching.
Fascinating times, & always good to see the "campfires" of other "gentle people" 🙏
Fascinating times, & always good to see the "campfires" of other "gentle people" 🙏
"China didn't do anything to mfg that wasn't already on trend long before 2001" = ???
Either 20 years (1981-2001) is a "long trend" for you, or your eyes are bad, but IMO, the "long trend" for US mfg employment (flat 1981-2001) abruptly changed trend
Either 20 years (1981-2001) is a "long trend" for you, or your eyes are bad, but IMO, the "long trend" for US mfg employment (flat 1981-2001) abruptly changed trend
August 28, 2025 at 11:53 AM
"China didn't do anything to mfg that wasn't already on trend long before 2001" = ???
Either 20 years (1981-2001) is a "long trend" for you, or your eyes are bad, but IMO, the "long trend" for US mfg employment (flat 1981-2001) abruptly changed trend
Either 20 years (1981-2001) is a "long trend" for you, or your eyes are bad, but IMO, the "long trend" for US mfg employment (flat 1981-2001) abruptly changed trend
Begs the question: If socialism drives shorter life expectancy & capitalism higher life expectancy...why have EU mortality rates fallen sharply while middle-aged US white male mortality rates have spiked directionally similar to 1990s Russia?
August 28, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Begs the question: If socialism drives shorter life expectancy & capitalism higher life expectancy...why have EU mortality rates fallen sharply while middle-aged US white male mortality rates have spiked directionally similar to 1990s Russia?
2/ "Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"
August 28, 2025 at 11:51 AM
2/ "Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"