Will Weaver ⛈️
@willweatherrva.bsky.social
#RVA | #LetsGoVCU | 💍 My Kari Cupcake | #ActuallyAutistic | He/him | Weather enthusiast, not a meteorologist | Account dedicated to weather, main is @WillWeaverRVA.bsky.social
Tropical Cyclone #04B has formed in a very unusual location - in the Strait of Malacca between Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula. According to IBTrACS, this is the first TC on record to form in this area. The system has been causing catastrophic flooding in #Malaysia, #Indonesia, and #Thailand.
November 25, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Tropical Cyclone #04B has formed in a very unusual location - in the Strait of Malacca between Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula. According to IBTrACS, this is the first TC on record to form in this area. The system has been causing catastrophic flooding in #Malaysia, #Indonesia, and #Thailand.
Invest #98W located SE of #Yap is organizing, with an increasingly well defined LLCC present although the convection is still in scattered clusters. This will likely become a tropical depression by tomorrow, and it is definitely something to watch if you're in the #Philippines.
October 30, 2025 at 6:30 PM
Invest #98W located SE of #Yap is organizing, with an increasingly well defined LLCC present although the convection is still in scattered clusters. This will likely become a tropical depression by tomorrow, and it is definitely something to watch if you're in the #Philippines.
#Melissa (#13L) is racing away from the #Bahamas and toward #Bermuda. The #hurricane is beginning to lose tropical characteristics as a frontal boundary approaches from the west, and the convection is shearing off to the north and east. This could still be a hard hit for Bermuda.
October 30, 2025 at 6:25 PM
#Melissa (#13L) is racing away from the #Bahamas and toward #Bermuda. The #hurricane is beginning to lose tropical characteristics as a frontal boundary approaches from the west, and the convection is shearing off to the north and east. This could still be a hard hit for Bermuda.
I love it when a model has a spread of 135 mb among all its members. 06Z Google DeepMind for invest #98W has members ranging from 876 mb to 1001 mb at 102 hours.
October 30, 2025 at 2:22 PM
I love it when a model has a spread of 135 mb among all its members. 06Z Google DeepMind for invest #98W has members ranging from 876 mb to 1001 mb at 102 hours.
#Melissa (#13L) has emerged from the NE coast of #Cuba and is headed for the #Bahamas. Unlike the passage over #Jamaica, Cuba really did a number on its structure. Although it's back over water, it won't have an opportunity to recover as it's about to encounter strong shear.
October 29, 2025 at 12:40 PM
#Melissa is recovering from its passage over #Jamaica quite quickly. The eye is still cloud-filled, but it is warming fast and the eyewall appears to be intact. Another brief spurt of rapid intensification is starting to look very possible before it reaches #Cuba in ~6 hrs.
October 29, 2025 at 12:44 AM
#Melissa (#13L) is back over water off the northern coast of #Jamaica. It has weakened significantly (winds down to 125 kts, probably closer to 110-115 kts by now) but still has a fairly impressive structure. It could regain a bit of strength before reaching #Cuba early tomorrow.
October 28, 2025 at 11:35 PM
#Melissa (#13L) has officially made landfall near New Hope, Jamaica at Category 5 status, with winds of 160 knots (185 mph) and a central pressure of 892 mb.
Melissa is tied with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the most intense landfalling Atlantic #hurricane on record.
Melissa is tied with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the most intense landfalling Atlantic #hurricane on record.
October 28, 2025 at 5:07 PM
#Melissa (#13L) has officially made landfall near New Hope, Jamaica at Category 5 status, with winds of 160 knots (185 mph) and a central pressure of 892 mb.
Melissa is tied with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the most intense landfalling Atlantic #hurricane on record.
Melissa is tied with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the most intense landfalling Atlantic #hurricane on record.
Center of #Melissa's eye is just about to make landfall. I would expect an update from NHC in the next few minutes.
October 28, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Center of #Melissa's eye is just about to make landfall. I would expect an update from NHC in the next few minutes.
Key messages from the latest discussion on #Melissa. For #Jamaica, this is about as close as it gets to a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) #hurricane warning, if it existed. Widespread destruction is very likely, and higher elevations could see even stronger winds.
October 28, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Key messages from the latest discussion on #Melissa. For #Jamaica, this is about as close as it gets to a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) #hurricane warning, if it existed. Widespread destruction is very likely, and higher elevations could see even stronger winds.
#Melissa (#13L) is about to make landfall in #Jamaica. This is a catastrophic situation. It's hard to come up with any more words to describe this.
Position: 17.9°N 77.9°W (40 mi SE of Negril)
Movement: NNE at 7 kts (9 mph)
Intensity: 160 kts (185 mph)
Central pressure: 892 mb
Position: 17.9°N 77.9°W (40 mi SE of Negril)
Movement: NNE at 7 kts (9 mph)
Intensity: 160 kts (185 mph)
Central pressure: 892 mb
October 28, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Eyewall of #Melissa is on the coast - landfall is imminent. Good luck to everyone on the ground there because this is going to be devastating. Tied for the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane on record.
October 28, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Eyewall of #Melissa is on the coast - landfall is imminent. Good luck to everyone on the ground there because this is going to be devastating. Tied for the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane on record.
This dropsonde is absolutely INSANE. The mean wind in the lowest 150 m of #Melissa is 188 kts (216 mph). These are some FIERCE winds and some higher elevations in Jamaica could very well see 175-180 kt winds.
October 28, 2025 at 2:14 PM
This dropsonde is absolutely INSANE. The mean wind in the lowest 150 m of #Melissa is 188 kts (216 mph). These are some FIERCE winds and some higher elevations in Jamaica could very well see 175-180 kt winds.
The latest update shows #Melissa with winds of 160 kts (185 mph) and a pressure of 892 mb - tying the 1935 Labor Day #hurricane as the third most intense on record in the Atlantic.
The headline reads "LAST CHANCE TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE." This is NOT hyperbole. #Jamaica
The headline reads "LAST CHANCE TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE." This is NOT hyperbole. #Jamaica
October 28, 2025 at 2:05 PM
The latest update shows #Melissa with winds of 160 kts (185 mph) and a pressure of 892 mb - tying the 1935 Labor Day #hurricane as the third most intense on record in the Atlantic.
The headline reads "LAST CHANCE TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE." This is NOT hyperbole. #Jamaica
The headline reads "LAST CHANCE TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE." This is NOT hyperbole. #Jamaica
Finally, we get a dropsonde in #Melissa's eye and it indicates a pressure of 893 mb with winds of 13 kts. This reduces to a central pressure of 892 mb, which ties the 1935 Labor Day #hurricane for third most intense on record in the Atlantic basin.
October 28, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Finally, we get a dropsonde in #Melissa's eye and it indicates a pressure of 893 mb with winds of 13 kts. This reduces to a central pressure of 892 mb, which ties the 1935 Labor Day #hurricane for third most intense on record in the Atlantic basin.
The Air Force recon plane is currently circling the eye, most likely trying to confirm the extremely low pressure they just recorded. Given that all the pressure observations on this pass are in the 892 to 897 range, I'd say they've confirmed it. #Melissa
October 28, 2025 at 12:50 PM
The Air Force recon plane is currently circling the eye, most likely trying to confirm the extremely low pressure they just recorded. Given that all the pressure observations on this pass are in the 892 to 897 range, I'd say they've confirmed it. #Melissa
#Melissa starting to show some signs of land interaction (note the convective blowup over central #Jamaica), but the compact inner core is unaffected so far. (satellite loop from @cyclonicwx.bsky.social)
October 28, 2025 at 12:34 PM
#Melissa starting to show some signs of land interaction (note the convective blowup over central #Jamaica), but the compact inner core is unaffected so far. (satellite loop from @cyclonicwx.bsky.social)
#Melissa (#13L) is approaching landfall in western #Jamaica. An Air Force recon mission just arrived in the storm so we should have a good idea of what its actual intensity is very shortly. There's also a NOAA plane en route.
CIMSS ADT is up to 8.5 (it actually goes up to 9).
CIMSS ADT is up to 8.5 (it actually goes up to 9).
October 28, 2025 at 12:24 PM
#Melissa is about to find itself in the most favorable environment it will ever see as it stubbornly refuses to undergo eyewall replacement cycles, is in prime thermodynamic conditions, and will soon have a favorable trough interaction from a frontal system well to the north.
October 28, 2025 at 2:32 AM
#Melissa is about to find itself in the most favorable environment it will ever see as it stubbornly refuses to undergo eyewall replacement cycles, is in prime thermodynamic conditions, and will soon have a favorable trough interaction from a frontal system well to the north.
#Melissa showed some signs that maybe it had peaked earlier, but it clearly isn't done yet. In fact, CIMSS ADT estimates are back up over 8.0 again. This may be overdone since the tropopause is colder later in the season so the convection is colder but this is still insane.
October 28, 2025 at 1:38 AM
#Melissa showed some signs that maybe it had peaked earlier, but it clearly isn't done yet. In fact, CIMSS ADT estimates are back up over 8.0 again. This may be overdone since the tropopause is colder later in the season so the convection is colder but this is still insane.