Wen-Ti Sung
@wentisung.bsky.social
Politics of the China, Taiwan, and US triangle. Tea leaf reader and bubble tea drinker. @ANU, @AtlanticCouncil.
https://reporter.anu.edu.au/people/wen-ti-sung
https://reporter.anu.edu.au/people/wen-ti-sung
China's ongoing military purge is devastating its Navy and South China Sea forces, and fueling more grayzone coercion across South & Southeast Asias.
Last week China's 3rd aircraft carrier the 'Fujian' officially entered service in Hainan Province, the closest province to maritime SE Asia. /1🧵
Last week China's 3rd aircraft carrier the 'Fujian' officially entered service in Hainan Province, the closest province to maritime SE Asia. /1🧵
November 10, 2025 at 5:05 AM
China's ongoing military purge is devastating its Navy and South China Sea forces, and fueling more grayzone coercion across South & Southeast Asias.
Last week China's 3rd aircraft carrier the 'Fujian' officially entered service in Hainan Province, the closest province to maritime SE Asia. /1🧵
Last week China's 3rd aircraft carrier the 'Fujian' officially entered service in Hainan Province, the closest province to maritime SE Asia. /1🧵
Big news re Shangri-La Dialogue 2025: For the first time since 2019, Chinese Defense Minister will not be attending.
China is allowing SLD25 to become US DefSec Pete Hegeseth’s one-man show, and it'll be a missed opportunity for US-China to stabilize ties amid uncertainty.
Why? /1
China is allowing SLD25 to become US DefSec Pete Hegeseth’s one-man show, and it'll be a missed opportunity for US-China to stabilize ties amid uncertainty.
Why? /1
May 29, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Big news re Shangri-La Dialogue 2025: For the first time since 2019, Chinese Defense Minister will not be attending.
China is allowing SLD25 to become US DefSec Pete Hegeseth’s one-man show, and it'll be a missed opportunity for US-China to stabilize ties amid uncertainty.
Why? /1
China is allowing SLD25 to become US DefSec Pete Hegeseth’s one-man show, and it'll be a missed opportunity for US-China to stabilize ties amid uncertainty.
Why? /1
I gave some comments to @BBC on how Trump and Xi Jinping can find ways to re-engage and rein in the trade war.
Neither side is going to get 100% of what they want. So finding an off-ramp while preserving face requires both sides to be willing to show some degree of constructive ambiguity. 🧵 /1
Neither side is going to get 100% of what they want. So finding an off-ramp while preserving face requires both sides to be willing to show some degree of constructive ambiguity. 🧵 /1
May 2, 2025 at 4:44 AM
I gave some comments to @BBC on how Trump and Xi Jinping can find ways to re-engage and rein in the trade war.
Neither side is going to get 100% of what they want. So finding an off-ramp while preserving face requires both sides to be willing to show some degree of constructive ambiguity. 🧵 /1
Neither side is going to get 100% of what they want. So finding an off-ramp while preserving face requires both sides to be willing to show some degree of constructive ambiguity. 🧵 /1
How to circumvent Trump's tariffs against Chinese goods that are "Made in China":
April 24, 2025 at 10:19 AM
How to circumvent Trump's tariffs against Chinese goods that are "Made in China":
The irony.
#China holds top-level "Periphery Working Conference" today to build economic ties with its neighbors (mainly Central & SE Asian) to consolidate its backyard.
Meanwhile US is alienating its own backyard, by antagonizing Canada & Mexico in ways not seen in over 100 yrs.
#China holds top-level "Periphery Working Conference" today to build economic ties with its neighbors (mainly Central & SE Asian) to consolidate its backyard.
Meanwhile US is alienating its own backyard, by antagonizing Canada & Mexico in ways not seen in over 100 yrs.
April 9, 2025 at 7:10 AM
The irony.
#China holds top-level "Periphery Working Conference" today to build economic ties with its neighbors (mainly Central & SE Asian) to consolidate its backyard.
Meanwhile US is alienating its own backyard, by antagonizing Canada & Mexico in ways not seen in over 100 yrs.
#China holds top-level "Periphery Working Conference" today to build economic ties with its neighbors (mainly Central & SE Asian) to consolidate its backyard.
Meanwhile US is alienating its own backyard, by antagonizing Canada & Mexico in ways not seen in over 100 yrs.
i.e. whether Trump's appetite will not be like Pringles: "Once you pop, you can't stop".
Without such assurance, China's main option is to respond with proportional retaliatory trade sanctions against the US, but keep off-ramps, and still negotiate with Trump at the same time. /9
Without such assurance, China's main option is to respond with proportional retaliatory trade sanctions against the US, but keep off-ramps, and still negotiate with Trump at the same time. /9
April 8, 2025 at 5:06 AM
i.e. whether Trump's appetite will not be like Pringles: "Once you pop, you can't stop".
Without such assurance, China's main option is to respond with proportional retaliatory trade sanctions against the US, but keep off-ramps, and still negotiate with Trump at the same time. /9
Without such assurance, China's main option is to respond with proportional retaliatory trade sanctions against the US, but keep off-ramps, and still negotiate with Trump at the same time. /9
Trump has threatened #China with an extra 50% tariff.
US and China are locked in a game of chicken, like 2 race cars driving directly toward each other, whoever swerves first will stand to lose prestige and profit.
What is China thinking at the moment? /1 🧵
US and China are locked in a game of chicken, like 2 race cars driving directly toward each other, whoever swerves first will stand to lose prestige and profit.
What is China thinking at the moment? /1 🧵
April 8, 2025 at 5:04 AM
Trump has threatened #China with an extra 50% tariff.
US and China are locked in a game of chicken, like 2 race cars driving directly toward each other, whoever swerves first will stand to lose prestige and profit.
What is China thinking at the moment? /1 🧵
US and China are locked in a game of chicken, like 2 race cars driving directly toward each other, whoever swerves first will stand to lose prestige and profit.
What is China thinking at the moment? /1 🧵
I am quoted in @nytimes.com, re China holding live-fire military drills near Taiwan, code-named "Strait Thunder 2025-A".
China is trying to test US support for Taiwan. If US defaults back to a transactionalist noncommittal posture, it will instill US-skepticism among US friends.../1
China is trying to test US support for Taiwan. If US defaults back to a transactionalist noncommittal posture, it will instill US-skepticism among US friends.../1
April 2, 2025 at 5:53 AM
I am quoted in @nytimes.com, re China holding live-fire military drills near Taiwan, code-named "Strait Thunder 2025-A".
China is trying to test US support for Taiwan. If US defaults back to a transactionalist noncommittal posture, it will instill US-skepticism among US friends.../1
China is trying to test US support for Taiwan. If US defaults back to a transactionalist noncommittal posture, it will instill US-skepticism among US friends.../1
China's MFA being #SchrodingersCat?
3/4
"If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re #ready to fight till the end”
3/6
"Whatever kind of war it is, a tariff war or a trade war, a cold war or a hot war, they should #not be fought and cannot be won"
3/4
"If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re #ready to fight till the end”
3/6
"Whatever kind of war it is, a tariff war or a trade war, a cold war or a hot war, they should #not be fought and cannot be won"
March 9, 2025 at 6:51 AM
China's MFA being #SchrodingersCat?
3/4
"If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re #ready to fight till the end”
3/6
"Whatever kind of war it is, a tariff war or a trade war, a cold war or a hot war, they should #not be fought and cannot be won"
3/4
"If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re #ready to fight till the end”
3/6
"Whatever kind of war it is, a tariff war or a trade war, a cold war or a hot war, they should #not be fought and cannot be won"
"What's the point anymore of questioning whether China is partial towards Russia?
If that is a problem for people, they should first go criticize America. Because now America is not only partial to, but actively supports, Russia. Am I right?"
- China's special envoy for Europe, #LuShaye
If that is a problem for people, they should first go criticize America. Because now America is not only partial to, but actively supports, Russia. Am I right?"
- China's special envoy for Europe, #LuShaye
March 8, 2025 at 5:03 AM
"What's the point anymore of questioning whether China is partial towards Russia?
If that is a problem for people, they should first go criticize America. Because now America is not only partial to, but actively supports, Russia. Am I right?"
- China's special envoy for Europe, #LuShaye
If that is a problem for people, they should first go criticize America. Because now America is not only partial to, but actively supports, Russia. Am I right?"
- China's special envoy for Europe, #LuShaye
Positive story-telling from Beijing Business Times columnist:
"Decrease in number of Chinese stocks hitting limit up is a good sign that Chinese investors are becoming more rational & less opportunistic, and that the market overall is becoming more healthy". /2
www.bbtnews.com.cn/2024/1224/54...
"Decrease in number of Chinese stocks hitting limit up is a good sign that Chinese investors are becoming more rational & less opportunistic, and that the market overall is becoming more healthy". /2
www.bbtnews.com.cn/2024/1224/54...
December 25, 2024 at 7:46 AM
Positive story-telling from Beijing Business Times columnist:
"Decrease in number of Chinese stocks hitting limit up is a good sign that Chinese investors are becoming more rational & less opportunistic, and that the market overall is becoming more healthy". /2
www.bbtnews.com.cn/2024/1224/54...
"Decrease in number of Chinese stocks hitting limit up is a good sign that Chinese investors are becoming more rational & less opportunistic, and that the market overall is becoming more healthy". /2
www.bbtnews.com.cn/2024/1224/54...
China's Finance Ministry had just issued Christmas presents for everybody.
On 12/24's National Finance Work Conference, China's Minister of Finance Lan called for:
- "increase fiscal deficit rate & issue ever greater govt bonds"
- to "stimulate consumption and optimize expenditure structure".
On 12/24's National Finance Work Conference, China's Minister of Finance Lan called for:
- "increase fiscal deficit rate & issue ever greater govt bonds"
- to "stimulate consumption and optimize expenditure structure".
December 25, 2024 at 4:37 AM
China's Finance Ministry had just issued Christmas presents for everybody.
On 12/24's National Finance Work Conference, China's Minister of Finance Lan called for:
- "increase fiscal deficit rate & issue ever greater govt bonds"
- to "stimulate consumption and optimize expenditure structure".
On 12/24's National Finance Work Conference, China's Minister of Finance Lan called for:
- "increase fiscal deficit rate & issue ever greater govt bonds"
- to "stimulate consumption and optimize expenditure structure".
“I think there is a broad, 80% consensus among experts, that Xi Jinping does seek a more hegemonic position in Asia…to dictate terms.
I don’t get a lot of pushback (when I say this, but) I do in Australia -the China community in AUS is a bit different from US, Europe, certainly Japan.” - Mike Green
I don’t get a lot of pushback (when I say this, but) I do in Australia -the China community in AUS is a bit different from US, Europe, certainly Japan.” - Mike Green
December 2, 2024 at 1:35 PM
“I think there is a broad, 80% consensus among experts, that Xi Jinping does seek a more hegemonic position in Asia…to dictate terms.
I don’t get a lot of pushback (when I say this, but) I do in Australia -the China community in AUS is a bit different from US, Europe, certainly Japan.” - Mike Green
I don’t get a lot of pushback (when I say this, but) I do in Australia -the China community in AUS is a bit different from US, Europe, certainly Japan.” - Mike Green
I shared some comments with the Strait Times on the rumors surrounding the dismissal of China's generals, particularly Defense Minister Dong Jun and Head of PLA's Political Work department Miao Hua.
A short thread. /1 🧵
A short thread. /1 🧵
November 28, 2024 at 3:36 PM
I shared some comments with the Strait Times on the rumors surrounding the dismissal of China's generals, particularly Defense Minister Dong Jun and Head of PLA's Political Work department Miao Hua.
A short thread. /1 🧵
A short thread. /1 🧵
Chinese military’s political work boss #MiaoHua goes down.
With two consecutive heads of political work suffering bad endings, working in the PLA’s political work has become a high risk career track, especially in this era of insatiable thirst for ever greater party control.
With two consecutive heads of political work suffering bad endings, working in the PLA’s political work has become a high risk career track, especially in this era of insatiable thirst for ever greater party control.
November 28, 2024 at 8:57 AM
Chinese military’s political work boss #MiaoHua goes down.
With two consecutive heads of political work suffering bad endings, working in the PLA’s political work has become a high risk career track, especially in this era of insatiable thirst for ever greater party control.
With two consecutive heads of political work suffering bad endings, working in the PLA’s political work has become a high risk career track, especially in this era of insatiable thirst for ever greater party control.
"China’s defence minister placed under investigation for corruption"
Is it true that China is investigating its 3rd Chinese defense minister in a row?
While nothing should surprise anybody by this point, but for now I do have my reservations. Here are a few quick thoughts re #DongJun: /1 🧵
Is it true that China is investigating its 3rd Chinese defense minister in a row?
While nothing should surprise anybody by this point, but for now I do have my reservations. Here are a few quick thoughts re #DongJun: /1 🧵
November 27, 2024 at 5:42 AM
"China’s defence minister placed under investigation for corruption"
Is it true that China is investigating its 3rd Chinese defense minister in a row?
While nothing should surprise anybody by this point, but for now I do have my reservations. Here are a few quick thoughts re #DongJun: /1 🧵
Is it true that China is investigating its 3rd Chinese defense minister in a row?
While nothing should surprise anybody by this point, but for now I do have my reservations. Here are a few quick thoughts re #DongJun: /1 🧵
Even more Chinese charm offensive to come as Trumpian uncertainty kicks in.
To repair ties with Japan, China has allegedly agreed to remove a buoy (floating marker of China's sovereignty claim) near the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, where China and Japan have an ongoing territorial dispute
To repair ties with Japan, China has allegedly agreed to remove a buoy (floating marker of China's sovereignty claim) near the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, where China and Japan have an ongoing territorial dispute
November 25, 2024 at 9:43 AM
Even more Chinese charm offensive to come as Trumpian uncertainty kicks in.
To repair ties with Japan, China has allegedly agreed to remove a buoy (floating marker of China's sovereignty claim) near the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, where China and Japan have an ongoing territorial dispute
To repair ties with Japan, China has allegedly agreed to remove a buoy (floating marker of China's sovereignty claim) near the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, where China and Japan have an ongoing territorial dispute
In Taiwan,
we don't say "husband".
We say "陳傑憲",
and I think that's beautiful.
we don't say "husband".
We say "陳傑憲",
and I think that's beautiful.
November 25, 2024 at 8:30 AM
In Taiwan,
we don't say "husband".
We say "陳傑憲",
and I think that's beautiful.
we don't say "husband".
We say "陳傑憲",
and I think that's beautiful.
Taiwan's baseball team captain said so many Taiwanese flied over to Japan to cheer them on that Tokyo Dome almost felt like Taipei Dome.
I can already see a tagline:
"A Whole-of-Society Victory for Taiwan Baseball" ⚾️
I can already see a tagline:
"A Whole-of-Society Victory for Taiwan Baseball" ⚾️
November 24, 2024 at 5:00 PM
Taiwan's baseball team captain said so many Taiwanese flied over to Japan to cheer them on that Tokyo Dome almost felt like Taipei Dome.
I can already see a tagline:
"A Whole-of-Society Victory for Taiwan Baseball" ⚾️
I can already see a tagline:
"A Whole-of-Society Victory for Taiwan Baseball" ⚾️
On Xi's "Four Red-lines" remark during the Xi-Biden summit in Peru:
The four red lines is an encapsulation of China's consistent discourse on its 'core interests' in domestic security and regime security.
What's interesting is the remarkable omission of another core interest... /1 short 🧵
The four red lines is an encapsulation of China's consistent discourse on its 'core interests' in domestic security and regime security.
What's interesting is the remarkable omission of another core interest... /1 short 🧵
November 18, 2024 at 7:15 AM
On Xi's "Four Red-lines" remark during the Xi-Biden summit in Peru:
The four red lines is an encapsulation of China's consistent discourse on its 'core interests' in domestic security and regime security.
What's interesting is the remarkable omission of another core interest... /1 short 🧵
The four red lines is an encapsulation of China's consistent discourse on its 'core interests' in domestic security and regime security.
What's interesting is the remarkable omission of another core interest... /1 short 🧵
My humble new commentary previews cross-strait dynamics between China and Taiwan's new Lai Ching-te administration:
"Taiwan’s new president has a nationalist reputation. It could be an asset when dealing with Beijing."
Link: www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
"Taiwan’s new president has a nationalist reputation. It could be an asset when dealing with Beijing."
Link: www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
May 17, 2024 at 5:37 PM
My humble new commentary previews cross-strait dynamics between China and Taiwan's new Lai Ching-te administration:
"Taiwan’s new president has a nationalist reputation. It could be an asset when dealing with Beijing."
Link: www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
"Taiwan’s new president has a nationalist reputation. It could be an asset when dealing with Beijing."
Link: www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
I touched on these in an interview with CNN last week, about Ma-Xi summit’s likely effects of:
a) Highlight shared cross-strait bonds,
b) Exert pressure on Lai administration,
c) Open the way for more winning hearts & minds-oriented exchanges, etc. /6
a) Highlight shared cross-strait bonds,
b) Exert pressure on Lai administration,
c) Open the way for more winning hearts & minds-oriented exchanges, etc. /6
April 15, 2024 at 2:39 PM
I touched on these in an interview with CNN last week, about Ma-Xi summit’s likely effects of:
a) Highlight shared cross-strait bonds,
b) Exert pressure on Lai administration,
c) Open the way for more winning hearts & minds-oriented exchanges, etc. /6
a) Highlight shared cross-strait bonds,
b) Exert pressure on Lai administration,
c) Open the way for more winning hearts & minds-oriented exchanges, etc. /6
I touched on this in an interview with CNN last week, about Ma-Xi summit’s likely effects of: a) Highlight shared cross-strait bonds, b) Exert pressure on Lai administration, c) Open the way for more winning hearts & minds-oriented exchanges, etc. /3
April 15, 2024 at 2:38 PM
I touched on this in an interview with CNN last week, about Ma-Xi summit’s likely effects of: a) Highlight shared cross-strait bonds, b) Exert pressure on Lai administration, c) Open the way for more winning hearts & minds-oriented exchanges, etc. /3
Here it comes. Taiwan's ex-President Ma Ying-jeou this morning calls on Taiwan's president-elect Lai Ching-te to:
1. observe the ROC constitution & "One China framework"
2. reaffirm 2 sides of TW Strait are not two countries
3. ditch Taiwan independence
4. return to 92 'Consensus'. /1
1. observe the ROC constitution & "One China framework"
2. reaffirm 2 sides of TW Strait are not two countries
3. ditch Taiwan independence
4. return to 92 'Consensus'. /1
April 15, 2024 at 2:37 PM
Here it comes. Taiwan's ex-President Ma Ying-jeou this morning calls on Taiwan's president-elect Lai Ching-te to:
1. observe the ROC constitution & "One China framework"
2. reaffirm 2 sides of TW Strait are not two countries
3. ditch Taiwan independence
4. return to 92 'Consensus'. /1
1. observe the ROC constitution & "One China framework"
2. reaffirm 2 sides of TW Strait are not two countries
3. ditch Taiwan independence
4. return to 92 'Consensus'. /1
China's President Xi Jinping appoints 2 new generals on Christmas day.
The 2 generals are likely up for career fast-track. Last year Qin Gang was also appointed as Foreign Minister at end of December (Dec 30) - to give him 1 more year as FM on paper for his resume. /1
The 2 generals are likely up for career fast-track. Last year Qin Gang was also appointed as Foreign Minister at end of December (Dec 30) - to give him 1 more year as FM on paper for his resume. /1
December 28, 2023 at 3:11 AM
China's President Xi Jinping appoints 2 new generals on Christmas day.
The 2 generals are likely up for career fast-track. Last year Qin Gang was also appointed as Foreign Minister at end of December (Dec 30) - to give him 1 more year as FM on paper for his resume. /1
The 2 generals are likely up for career fast-track. Last year Qin Gang was also appointed as Foreign Minister at end of December (Dec 30) - to give him 1 more year as FM on paper for his resume. /1