Colin Angus
@victimofmaths.bsky.social
Professor of Alcohol Policy in the Sheffield Addictions Research Group (@SARG-SCHARR), graph drawer, data botherer, cake eater, incompetent cyclist and intermittent birder.
During the only period in recent history when alcohol duties were increased above inflation for a sustained period - the 2008-2013 duty escalator - Treasury revenue *rose*, both in cash- and real-terms.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
During the only period in recent history when alcohol duties were increased above inflation for a sustained period - the 2008-2013 duty escalator - Treasury revenue *rose*, both in cash- and real-terms.
This graph also rather challenges attempts that the alcohol industry often make invoking the Laffer curve (which says that there is a point at which increasing tax rates leads to a reduction, not an increase, in total tax take) to say that increasing alcohol duties would lose the Treasury money.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
This graph also rather challenges attempts that the alcohol industry often make invoking the Laffer curve (which says that there is a point at which increasing tax rates leads to a reduction, not an increase, in total tax take) to say that increasing alcohol duties would lose the Treasury money.
Recent weeks have seen lots of attempts from the alcohol industry to blame the 2023 duty reforms for falls in government revenue from alcohol duties, but the data just doens't support this.
Looking at total receipts, they were falling well before the reforms came in in August 2023.
Looking at total receipts, they were falling well before the reforms came in in August 2023.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Recent weeks have seen lots of attempts from the alcohol industry to blame the 2023 duty reforms for falls in government revenue from alcohol duties, but the data just doens't support this.
Looking at total receipts, they were falling well before the reforms came in in August 2023.
Looking at total receipts, they were falling well before the reforms came in in August 2023.
Also when thinking about inflation, it's worth noting that although the cost-of-living crisis has seen well above usual levels of inflation, the average prices of alcohol have risen more slowly than almost any other food or drink items.
As a result alcohol is *more* affordable now.
As a result alcohol is *more* affordable now.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Also when thinking about inflation, it's worth noting that although the cost-of-living crisis has seen well above usual levels of inflation, the average prices of alcohol have risen more slowly than almost any other food or drink items.
As a result alcohol is *more* affordable now.
As a result alcohol is *more* affordable now.
This plot also shows the tail end of the duty escalator that increased duty by 2% above inflation until 2013, the coalition and Conservative gov'ts successive duty cuts and freezes and then the duty reforms and inflation-linked duty increases since 2023 keeping things more steady in real terms.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
This plot also shows the tail end of the duty escalator that increased duty by 2% above inflation until 2013, the coalition and Conservative gov'ts successive duty cuts and freezes and then the duty reforms and inflation-linked duty increases since 2023 keeping things more steady in real terms.
Looking at just the last 15 years, after adjusting for inflation, alcohol duty rates are 29.5% lower for beer, 16.1% lower for cider, 8.0% lower for wine and 22.8% lower for spirits than January 2010.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Looking at just the last 15 years, after adjusting for inflation, alcohol duty rates are 29.5% lower for beer, 16.1% lower for cider, 8.0% lower for wine and 22.8% lower for spirits than January 2010.
A few thoughts on alcohol duty ahead of the budget (and an excuse to update some old graphs).
These two show the important of accounting for inflation - in cash terms alcohol duty rates are higher than ever before, but in real terms they are at historically low levels.
These two show the important of accounting for inflation - in cash terms alcohol duty rates are higher than ever before, but in real terms they are at historically low levels.
November 13, 2025 at 12:05 PM
A few thoughts on alcohol duty ahead of the budget (and an excuse to update some old graphs).
These two show the important of accounting for inflation - in cash terms alcohol duty rates are higher than ever before, but in real terms they are at historically low levels.
These two show the important of accounting for inflation - in cash terms alcohol duty rates are higher than ever before, but in real terms they are at historically low levels.
Alcoholic drinks, along with fruit and fish, are the only food and drink category to have got cheaper, in real terms, since the start of the cost-of-living crisis.
Beer has got slightly more expensive in real terms since the end of 2022, but wine and spirits remain at late 2022 prices.
Beer has got slightly more expensive in real terms since the end of 2022, but wine and spirits remain at late 2022 prices.
October 24, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Alcoholic drinks, along with fruit and fish, are the only food and drink category to have got cheaper, in real terms, since the start of the cost-of-living crisis.
Beer has got slightly more expensive in real terms since the end of 2022, but wine and spirits remain at late 2022 prices.
Beer has got slightly more expensive in real terms since the end of 2022, but wine and spirits remain at late 2022 prices.
Alcohol-specific deaths have falling in almost all age groups, with the biggest falls in the age groups with the highest rates and that had seen the biggest increases during the pandemic.
Although, maybe there's a slight concern about the oldest (75+) age groups where the trends look less positive.
Although, maybe there's a slight concern about the oldest (75+) age groups where the trends look less positive.
October 20, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Alcohol-specific deaths have falling in almost all age groups, with the biggest falls in the age groups with the highest rates and that had seen the biggest increases during the pandemic.
Although, maybe there's a slight concern about the oldest (75+) age groups where the trends look less positive.
Although, maybe there's a slight concern about the oldest (75+) age groups where the trends look less positive.
Alcohol-specific deaths fell in both men and women, but the fall was slightly larger in both absolute and relative terms for men (-8.7% vs. -6.2%), but around twice as many men as women die from these causes each year.
October 20, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Alcohol-specific deaths fell in both men and women, but the fall was slightly larger in both absolute and relative terms for men (-8.7% vs. -6.2%), but around twice as many men as women die from these causes each year.
The fall in 2024 was slightly larger in England than in Wales, although this should be considered in the context of Wales' much smaller population making Welsh figures considerably noisier than the English ones.
October 20, 2025 at 10:03 AM
The fall in 2024 was slightly larger in England than in Wales, although this should be considered in the context of Wales' much smaller population making Welsh figures considerably noisier than the English ones.
New data shows that the rate of alcohol-specific deaths in England & Wales *fell* in 2024 by 7.8%, but remain well above pre-pandemic levels.
This is the first fall since 2018, and is certainly good news, but the no. of people who sadly died from these causes in 2024 is still 1/3 higher than 2019
This is the first fall since 2018, and is certainly good news, but the no. of people who sadly died from these causes in 2024 is still 1/3 higher than 2019
October 20, 2025 at 10:03 AM
New data shows that the rate of alcohol-specific deaths in England & Wales *fell* in 2024 by 7.8%, but remain well above pre-pandemic levels.
This is the first fall since 2018, and is certainly good news, but the no. of people who sadly died from these causes in 2024 is still 1/3 higher than 2019
This is the first fall since 2018, and is certainly good news, but the no. of people who sadly died from these causes in 2024 is still 1/3 higher than 2019
It's not impossible, but I'd be surprised if it was artefactual. I'm using a broad definition (anything with an ICD-10 code starting in V) and the GB road traffic deaths data shows a similar pattern, with a sharp drop around 2010: www.gov.uk/government/s...
October 16, 2025 at 8:08 AM
It's not impossible, but I'd be surprised if it was artefactual. I'm using a broad definition (anything with an ICD-10 code starting in V) and the GB road traffic deaths data shows a similar pattern, with a sharp drop around 2010: www.gov.uk/government/s...
I was looking at some Scottish cause of death data yesterday and the extent to which transport accident deaths in young men have all but disappeared is pretty remarkable.
Nice to find a good news story in this data for a change.
Nice to find a good news story in this data for a change.
October 16, 2025 at 7:50 AM
I was looking at some Scottish cause of death data yesterday and the extent to which transport accident deaths in young men have all but disappeared is pretty remarkable.
Nice to find a good news story in this data for a change.
Nice to find a good news story in this data for a change.
Not a bad morning round these parts.
October 12, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Not a bad morning round these parts.
My wife requested a Battenberg birthday cake, so it would have been rude not to oblige. Pretty happy with how this turned out.
October 11, 2025 at 4:18 PM
My wife requested a Battenberg birthday cake, so it would have been rude not to oblige. Pretty happy with how this turned out.
If we want to support the hospitality sector (which may well be a perfectly reasonable goal) then there are many other ways this could be done - e.g. making greater use of the new 'draught relief' in the duty system to narrow the huge price gap between shops and pubs
October 9, 2025 at 9:28 AM
If we want to support the hospitality sector (which may well be a perfectly reasonable goal) then there are many other ways this could be done - e.g. making greater use of the new 'draught relief' in the duty system to narrow the huge price gap between shops and pubs
Pubs have been haemorrhaging their share of the alcohol market to shops for decades. We now buy 70-80% of our alcohol in shops (and ~70% of that in supermarkets).
The logic of how liberalising licensing for both pubs and shops will help pubs is a mystery to me.
The logic of how liberalising licensing for both pubs and shops will help pubs is a mystery to me.
October 9, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Pubs have been haemorrhaging their share of the alcohol market to shops for decades. We now buy 70-80% of our alcohol in shops (and ~70% of that in supermarkets).
The logic of how liberalising licensing for both pubs and shops will help pubs is a mystery to me.
The logic of how liberalising licensing for both pubs and shops will help pubs is a mystery to me.
We estimate that over 2/3 (69.7%) of deaths caused by alcohol in NI are among men, with a particularly strong male bias for alcohol-related injury deaths, and 43.6% are in the over 65s, although alcohol-specific deaths are more common in 45-54 and 55-64 year-olds.
October 1, 2025 at 12:20 PM
We estimate that over 2/3 (69.7%) of deaths caused by alcohol in NI are among men, with a particularly strong male bias for alcohol-related injury deaths, and 43.6% are in the over 65s, although alcohol-specific deaths are more common in 45-54 and 55-64 year-olds.
We estimate that 676 people lose their life each year in Northern Ireland as a direct result of their alcohol consumption. The largest contributor to this are alcohol-specific causes (largely ARLD), but we estimate 127 cancer deaths and 74 CVD deaths each year are caused by alcohol.
October 1, 2025 at 12:20 PM
We estimate that 676 people lose their life each year in Northern Ireland as a direct result of their alcohol consumption. The largest contributor to this are alcohol-specific causes (largely ARLD), but we estimate 127 cancer deaths and 74 CVD deaths each year are caused by alcohol.
We've got a new report out today using new data from Northern Ireland to estimate Alcohol-Attributable Fractions (AAFs) and the number of hospital admissions and deaths each year in NI caused by alcohol. Plus, how these break down by age, sex and condition.
sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
October 1, 2025 at 12:20 PM
We've got a new report out today using new data from Northern Ireland to estimate Alcohol-Attributable Fractions (AAFs) and the number of hospital admissions and deaths each year in NI caused by alcohol. Plus, how these break down by age, sex and condition.
sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/wp-content/u...
Last chart for now - an update to this comparison of age trends in drug and alcohol deaths in Scotland.
As much as the population rates are similar for both causes, the age patterns are *very* different, with drug deaths peaking in the 40s and alcohol deaths in the 60s.
As much as the population rates are similar for both causes, the age patterns are *very* different, with drug deaths peaking in the 40s and alcohol deaths in the 60s.
September 23, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Last chart for now - an update to this comparison of age trends in drug and alcohol deaths in Scotland.
As much as the population rates are similar for both causes, the age patterns are *very* different, with drug deaths peaking in the 40s and alcohol deaths in the 60s.
As much as the population rates are similar for both causes, the age patterns are *very* different, with drug deaths peaking in the 40s and alcohol deaths in the 60s.
A couple of bonus graphs - comparing today's alcohol-specific death figures for Scotland, with drug-related deaths trends published last month. The good news is that both fell in 2024, although drug-related deaths remain *way* above their levels 20 years ago.
September 23, 2025 at 11:33 AM
A couple of bonus graphs - comparing today's alcohol-specific death figures for Scotland, with drug-related deaths trends published last month. The good news is that both fell in 2024, although drug-related deaths remain *way* above their levels 20 years ago.
We don't have 2024 figures for England yet, so we can't compare, but I'd be surprised if they were this positive. Last year we saw the North East of England overtake Scotland's alcohol-specific death rate. I'd be surprised if that wasn't still true in 2024.
September 23, 2025 at 11:28 AM
We don't have 2024 figures for England yet, so we can't compare, but I'd be surprised if they were this positive. Last year we saw the North East of England overtake Scotland's alcohol-specific death rate. I'd be surprised if that wasn't still true in 2024.
Maybe the most positive news in today's data is the sharp fall in alcohol-specific deaths in people in their 60s and 70s (which are now the heaviest drinking age groups).
Deaths have been rising in these groups since the early 2010s, so it's good to see that trend reversed.
Deaths have been rising in these groups since the early 2010s, so it's good to see that trend reversed.
September 23, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Maybe the most positive news in today's data is the sharp fall in alcohol-specific deaths in people in their 60s and 70s (which are now the heaviest drinking age groups).
Deaths have been rising in these groups since the early 2010s, so it's good to see that trend reversed.
Deaths have been rising in these groups since the early 2010s, so it's good to see that trend reversed.