9/ Ungated link to the paper: papers.ssrn.com/abstract=420...

6/ My estimates suggest longer lead times on winter advisories reduce approximately 13.2 crashes per 100,000 people each year, resulting in an annual savings of approximately USD 190 million.

4/ In fact, at the current timescale of forecast horizon, the marginal benefits of additional lead time don't decrease--longer the lead time, fewer the crashes.

3/ Winter advisories with longer lead times DO reduce vehicle crashes, even when they're less accurate than advisories with shorter lead times.