Usama_Polani
@usama-polani.bsky.social
In Econ grad school purgatory. When I’m not reading macro and metrics papers I like watching tennis.
Fischers wonderful speech
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Reis and Bahaj(2021)on CB swap lines
academic.oup.com/restud/artic...
Their 2024 paper with Fuchs also worth reading for great empirics on expansion of global network of liquidity lines.See great graphs!
personal.lse.ac.uk/reisr/papers...
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Reis and Bahaj(2021)on CB swap lines
academic.oup.com/restud/artic...
Their 2024 paper with Fuchs also worth reading for great empirics on expansion of global network of liquidity lines.See great graphs!
personal.lse.ac.uk/reisr/papers...
June 1, 2025 at 11:32 AM
Fischers wonderful speech
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Reis and Bahaj(2021)on CB swap lines
academic.oup.com/restud/artic...
Their 2024 paper with Fuchs also worth reading for great empirics on expansion of global network of liquidity lines.See great graphs!
personal.lse.ac.uk/reisr/papers...
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Reis and Bahaj(2021)on CB swap lines
academic.oup.com/restud/artic...
Their 2024 paper with Fuchs also worth reading for great empirics on expansion of global network of liquidity lines.See great graphs!
personal.lse.ac.uk/reisr/papers...
His analysis in that speech was prescient on ways to prevent global contagion, post E.Asian crisis reserve accumulation & need for private sector buy-in.
Reading it 25+ years after publication reveals how forward-thinking and influential his analysis was for all that followed.
Reading it 25+ years after publication reveals how forward-thinking and influential his analysis was for all that followed.
June 1, 2025 at 11:27 AM
His analysis in that speech was prescient on ways to prevent global contagion, post E.Asian crisis reserve accumulation & need for private sector buy-in.
Reading it 25+ years after publication reveals how forward-thinking and influential his analysis was for all that followed.
Reading it 25+ years after publication reveals how forward-thinking and influential his analysis was for all that followed.
Stanley Fischer— so many contributions but I want to highlight.
His speech on need for an international lender of resort which argued for IMF to play that role. Over time as $-funding has become more important, CB swap lines led by the Fed mimic part of that role
His speech on need for an international lender of resort which argued for IMF to play that role. Over time as $-funding has become more important, CB swap lines led by the Fed mimic part of that role
June 1, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Stanley Fischer— so many contributions but I want to highlight.
His speech on need for an international lender of resort which argued for IMF to play that role. Over time as $-funding has become more important, CB swap lines led by the Fed mimic part of that role
His speech on need for an international lender of resort which argued for IMF to play that role. Over time as $-funding has become more important, CB swap lines led by the Fed mimic part of that role
Possibly one dimension of Deepseek/ broader China success tech:
-Large share of STEM grads
-Increasing rates of MSc and Doctoral students
-Growing share of grads in finance as W growth outpaced national but still absolute # of talented STEM grads is large talent reservoir
-Large share of STEM grads
-Increasing rates of MSc and Doctoral students
-Growing share of grads in finance as W growth outpaced national but still absolute # of talented STEM grads is large talent reservoir
January 28, 2025 at 2:00 AM
Possibly one dimension of Deepseek/ broader China success tech:
-Large share of STEM grads
-Increasing rates of MSc and Doctoral students
-Growing share of grads in finance as W growth outpaced national but still absolute # of talented STEM grads is large talent reservoir
-Large share of STEM grads
-Increasing rates of MSc and Doctoral students
-Growing share of grads in finance as W growth outpaced national but still absolute # of talented STEM grads is large talent reservoir
Yes think one child policy really just led a massive structural increase in ratio, helped by the diffusion of ultrasound tech*
kingcenter.stanford.edu/sites/g/file...
(Not sure how much I buy land reform story)
kingcenter.stanford.edu/sites/g/file...
(Not sure how much I buy land reform story)
November 21, 2024 at 2:38 AM
Yes think one child policy really just led a massive structural increase in ratio, helped by the diffusion of ultrasound tech*
kingcenter.stanford.edu/sites/g/file...
(Not sure how much I buy land reform story)
kingcenter.stanford.edu/sites/g/file...
(Not sure how much I buy land reform story)
Yes,seems sig improvement esp given underlying parental /cultural incentives(& may be sign of that gradually shifting)
I like this by Jisoo Hwang which -Shows evolution across Asia & exceptionalism of S.Korea
-role of lower ratio in higher order births
-Decline in stated son preference in surveys
I like this by Jisoo Hwang which -Shows evolution across Asia & exceptionalism of S.Korea
-role of lower ratio in higher order births
-Decline in stated son preference in surveys
November 21, 2024 at 2:23 AM
Yes,seems sig improvement esp given underlying parental /cultural incentives(& may be sign of that gradually shifting)
I like this by Jisoo Hwang which -Shows evolution across Asia & exceptionalism of S.Korea
-role of lower ratio in higher order births
-Decline in stated son preference in surveys
I like this by Jisoo Hwang which -Shows evolution across Asia & exceptionalism of S.Korea
-role of lower ratio in higher order births
-Decline in stated son preference in surveys
India stopping rules pretty strong which leads to relatively strong skew in last birth compared to others
Significant difference on wanting another child when comparing those with only boys vs only girls
Link to paper:
seemajayachandran.com/ten_facts_so...
Significant difference on wanting another child when comparing those with only boys vs only girls
Link to paper:
seemajayachandran.com/ten_facts_so...
November 21, 2024 at 2:07 AM
India stopping rules pretty strong which leads to relatively strong skew in last birth compared to others
Significant difference on wanting another child when comparing those with only boys vs only girls
Link to paper:
seemajayachandran.com/ten_facts_so...
Significant difference on wanting another child when comparing those with only boys vs only girls
Link to paper:
seemajayachandran.com/ten_facts_so...
Jayachandran(2023) great paper on progress and remaining inequities. Although sex ratio data at birth seems more volatile (possibly by trying to be retrospective)
-F/M ratio of infant survival marked improvement
-Eldest son preference pretty strong,when plotting non-eldest/eldest stunting rates
-F/M ratio of infant survival marked improvement
-Eldest son preference pretty strong,when plotting non-eldest/eldest stunting rates
November 21, 2024 at 2:02 AM
Jayachandran(2023) great paper on progress and remaining inequities. Although sex ratio data at birth seems more volatile (possibly by trying to be retrospective)
-F/M ratio of infant survival marked improvement
-Eldest son preference pretty strong,when plotting non-eldest/eldest stunting rates
-F/M ratio of infant survival marked improvement
-Eldest son preference pretty strong,when plotting non-eldest/eldest stunting rates
How Chinese Goods ate the world…
Throwback to Feenstra et al(1998), examining growing US-China trade deficit back then(!) linking to
-Macro forces
-China crowding out East Asian imports
“By 1995, China has displaced South Korea as one of the top 5 suppliers of "apparel and other textile products"
Throwback to Feenstra et al(1998), examining growing US-China trade deficit back then(!) linking to
-Macro forces
-China crowding out East Asian imports
“By 1995, China has displaced South Korea as one of the top 5 suppliers of "apparel and other textile products"
November 20, 2024 at 8:17 PM
How Chinese Goods ate the world…
Throwback to Feenstra et al(1998), examining growing US-China trade deficit back then(!) linking to
-Macro forces
-China crowding out East Asian imports
“By 1995, China has displaced South Korea as one of the top 5 suppliers of "apparel and other textile products"
Throwback to Feenstra et al(1998), examining growing US-China trade deficit back then(!) linking to
-Macro forces
-China crowding out East Asian imports
“By 1995, China has displaced South Korea as one of the top 5 suppliers of "apparel and other textile products"
-Risk of crowding out,but empirically seems banks respond by issuing deposits not cutting lending.
Here is the case of Japan
Here is the case of Japan
November 15, 2024 at 1:22 AM
-Risk of crowding out,but empirically seems banks respond by issuing deposits not cutting lending.
Here is the case of Japan
Here is the case of Japan
-Jeanne(2024) have straightforward model showing bank balance sheet decisions interacting with gov debt issuance
-Some data on threshold of gov debt/GDP, after which greater issuance absorbed by banks
www.imf.org/en/News/Semi...
November 15, 2024 at 1:21 AM
-Jeanne(2024) have straightforward model showing bank balance sheet decisions interacting with gov debt issuance
-Some data on threshold of gov debt/GDP, after which greater issuance absorbed by banks
www.imf.org/en/News/Semi...
So I will try to use this site with an oversupply of screenshots.
This shows how Gov Debt to GDP has evolved for a range of advanced economies, reaching extremely high levels.
An increasing share of that extra issuance absorbed by domestic banks, possibly a source of fin repression.
This shows how Gov Debt to GDP has evolved for a range of advanced economies, reaching extremely high levels.
An increasing share of that extra issuance absorbed by domestic banks, possibly a source of fin repression.
November 15, 2024 at 1:11 AM
So I will try to use this site with an oversupply of screenshots.
This shows how Gov Debt to GDP has evolved for a range of advanced economies, reaching extremely high levels.
An increasing share of that extra issuance absorbed by domestic banks, possibly a source of fin repression.
This shows how Gov Debt to GDP has evolved for a range of advanced economies, reaching extremely high levels.
An increasing share of that extra issuance absorbed by domestic banks, possibly a source of fin repression.
This is what happens when you let a true nerd design central bank communication without any guidance from generalists.
Or you know the BoJ has no idea how to end this um great experiment in monetary policy
Or you know the BoJ has no idea how to end this um great experiment in monetary policy
October 31, 2023 at 2:16 PM
This is what happens when you let a true nerd design central bank communication without any guidance from generalists.
Or you know the BoJ has no idea how to end this um great experiment in monetary policy
Or you know the BoJ has no idea how to end this um great experiment in monetary policy
wrap.warwick.ac.uk/44710/1/WRAP...
Here Craft has a wonderful analysis of Allen and Mokyr competing frameowrks for the 1st IR and role of micro and macro inventions(& overlapping definitions).
Crafts is also very clear on the evidence base required for thier arguments on first IR to be robust
Here Craft has a wonderful analysis of Allen and Mokyr competing frameowrks for the 1st IR and role of micro and macro inventions(& overlapping definitions).
Crafts is also very clear on the evidence base required for thier arguments on first IR to be robust
October 30, 2023 at 5:22 AM
wrap.warwick.ac.uk/44710/1/WRAP...
Here Craft has a wonderful analysis of Allen and Mokyr competing frameowrks for the 1st IR and role of micro and macro inventions(& overlapping definitions).
Crafts is also very clear on the evidence base required for thier arguments on first IR to be robust
Here Craft has a wonderful analysis of Allen and Mokyr competing frameowrks for the 1st IR and role of micro and macro inventions(& overlapping definitions).
Crafts is also very clear on the evidence base required for thier arguments on first IR to be robust
Very few academic papers have an opening paragraph as engaging as this from Allcott et al(2019)
https://web.stanford.edu/~gentzkow/research/facebook.pdf
https://web.stanford.edu/~gentzkow/research/facebook.pdf
July 2, 2023 at 10:27 PM
Very few academic papers have an opening paragraph as engaging as this from Allcott et al(2019)
https://web.stanford.edu/~gentzkow/research/facebook.pdf
https://web.stanford.edu/~gentzkow/research/facebook.pdf
Network effects very strong, until we one day go the url and it basically displays this poem and nothing else, we will always return.
July 2, 2023 at 1:36 AM
Network effects very strong, until we one day go the url and it basically displays this poem and nothing else, we will always return.
First alien communication
(translated after decades of work):
Do you understand the dynamics of this relationship, see attached JPEG??
(translated after decades of work):
Do you understand the dynamics of this relationship, see attached JPEG??
May 10, 2023 at 11:24 PM
First alien communication
(translated after decades of work):
Do you understand the dynamics of this relationship, see attached JPEG??
(translated after decades of work):
Do you understand the dynamics of this relationship, see attached JPEG??
Love sport photographs.
May 9, 2023 at 11:49 PM
Love sport photographs.
Nice little box on CRE exposure in the latest Fed FSR
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20230508.pdf
“Second, CRE property valuations are elevated, and current LTVs could rise considerably if CRE property valuations were to fall .”
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20230508.pdf
“Second, CRE property valuations are elevated, and current LTVs could rise considerably if CRE property valuations were to fall .”
May 9, 2023 at 10:46 PM
Nice little box on CRE exposure in the latest Fed FSR
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20230508.pdf
“Second, CRE property valuations are elevated, and current LTVs could rise considerably if CRE property valuations were to fall .”
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20230508.pdf
“Second, CRE property valuations are elevated, and current LTVs could rise considerably if CRE property valuations were to fall .”
I just learnt on this day of new kings that the original king has finally dropped Micro Foundations II!
And I’m past prelims and am not going to be a micro-theorist but still very tempted to buy this and spend the summer flicking through it
And I’m past prelims and am not going to be a micro-theorist but still very tempted to buy this and spend the summer flicking through it
May 6, 2023 at 4:30 PM
I just learnt on this day of new kings that the original king has finally dropped Micro Foundations II!
And I’m past prelims and am not going to be a micro-theorist but still very tempted to buy this and spend the summer flicking through it
And I’m past prelims and am not going to be a micro-theorist but still very tempted to buy this and spend the summer flicking through it