T.S. Kelso
@tskelso.bsky.social
Operator of CelesTrak, the world's first source for orbital element sets and related software and educational materials.
Elevated conditions continue. Perhaps a good time to look for enhanced Northern & Southern Lights.
November 12, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Elevated conditions continue. Perhaps a good time to look for enhanced Northern & Southern Lights.
NOAA is reporting and predicting elevated geomagnetic activity: celestrak.org/SpaceData/. Expect to see increased prediction errors in all LEO orbital data.
November 12, 2025 at 3:57 AM
NOAA is reporting and predicting elevated geomagnetic activity: celestrak.org/SpaceData/. Expect to see increased prediction errors in all LEO orbital data.
18 SDS has cataloged 10 objects from the launch (2025-258) of Guowang Group 13 atop a Long March-12 rocket from Wenchang Space Launch Site on Nov 10 at 0241 UTC: www.china-in-space.com/p/guowang-re.... SATCAT data can be found at: celestrak.org/satcat/table....
November 12, 2025 at 2:28 AM
18 SDS has cataloged 10 objects from the launch (2025-258) of Guowang Group 13 atop a Long March-12 rocket from Wenchang Space Launch Site on Nov 10 at 0241 UTC: www.china-in-space.com/p/guowang-re.... SATCAT data can be found at: celestrak.org/satcat/table....
18 SDS has cataloged 3 objects from the launch (2025-256) of Chutian-2 01 & 02 atop a Lijian-1 rocket from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on Nov 9 at 0332 UTC: www.china-in-space.com/p/cas-space-.... SATCAT data can be found at: celestrak.org/satcat/table....
November 12, 2025 at 1:57 AM
18 SDS has cataloged 3 objects from the launch (2025-256) of Chutian-2 01 & 02 atop a Lijian-1 rocket from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on Nov 9 at 0332 UTC: www.china-in-space.com/p/cas-space-.... SATCAT data can be found at: celestrak.org/satcat/table....
No GP data yet available, when it is see: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
Note: For some reason, 18 SDS incorrectly shows the first 3 objects launched from JSC instead of YSLA, like the rocket body.
Note: For some reason, 18 SDS incorrectly shows the first 3 objects launched from JSC instead of YSLA, like the rocket body.
November 12, 2025 at 1:37 AM
No GP data yet available, when it is see: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
Note: For some reason, 18 SDS incorrectly shows the first 3 objects launched from JSC instead of YSLA, like the rocket body.
Note: For some reason, 18 SDS incorrectly shows the first 3 objects launched from JSC instead of YSLA, like the rocket body.
18 SDS has cataloged 4 objects from the launch (2025-255) of Shiyan-32 01-03 atop a Long March-11 rocket from waters off Shandong Province on Nov 8 at 2101 UTC: www.china-in-space.com/p/anonymous-.... SATCAT data can be found at: celestrak.org/satcat/table....
November 12, 2025 at 1:32 AM
18 SDS has cataloged 4 objects from the launch (2025-255) of Shiyan-32 01-03 atop a Long March-11 rocket from waters off Shandong Province on Nov 8 at 2101 UTC: www.china-in-space.com/p/anonymous-.... SATCAT data can be found at: celestrak.org/satcat/table....
CelesTrak has ephemeris-based SupGP data for all 29 satellites from the Starlink G6-87 launch (2025-259) atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral on 2025-11-11 at 03:21:30 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2025/11/10/l.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
November 12, 2025 at 12:28 AM
CelesTrak has ephemeris-based SupGP data for all 29 satellites from the Starlink G6-87 launch (2025-259) atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral on 2025-11-11 at 03:21:30 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2025/11/10/l.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
That means we have no GP data from USSF for the last SIX launches--except for the SupGP produced by CelesTrak for the last 3 Starlink launches. And there are 5 more launches--3 of them Starlink--scheduled before the end of the week: new.nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=....
November 11, 2025 at 1:00 AM
That means we have no GP data from USSF for the last SIX launches--except for the SupGP produced by CelesTrak for the last 3 Starlink launches. And there are 5 more launches--3 of them Starlink--scheduled before the end of the week: new.nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=....
The latest 18 SDS GP data meltdown continues. Almost all of the data is over 2 days old and the mean age is at 3.07 days old. And 4,437 of the 10,087 RSOs we have SupGP data for have an 18 SDS RMS of over 25 km. No doubt the other 18,872 RSOs have data just as bad. Why is this even condoned?
November 11, 2025 at 12:27 AM
The latest 18 SDS GP data meltdown continues. Almost all of the data is over 2 days old and the mean age is at 3.07 days old. And 4,437 of the 10,087 RSOs we have SupGP data for have an 18 SDS RMS of over 25 km. No doubt the other 18,872 RSOs have data just as bad. Why is this even condoned?
With the latest dropout of 18 SDS GP data, the mean age of the data is now over 2.4 days old and almost nothing has been updated in the past day. The result is that 3,782 objects with SupGP data have an 18 SDS GP RMS difference of over 25 km--7 more than 10,000 km RMS.
November 10, 2025 at 8:23 AM
With the latest dropout of 18 SDS GP data, the mean age of the data is now over 2.4 days old and almost nothing has been updated in the past day. The result is that 3,782 objects with SupGP data have an 18 SDS GP RMS difference of over 25 km--7 more than 10,000 km RMS.
CelesTrak has ephemeris-based SupGP data for 28 of 29 satellites from the Starlink G10-51 launch (2025-257) atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral on 2025-11-09 at 08:10:10 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2025/11/07/l.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
November 9, 2025 at 7:31 PM
CelesTrak has ephemeris-based SupGP data for 28 of 29 satellites from the Starlink G10-51 launch (2025-257) atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral on 2025-11-09 at 08:10:10 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2025/11/07/l.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
CelesTrak has ephemeris-based SupGP data for all 28 satellites from the Starlink G11-14 launch (2025-254) atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg SFB on 2025-11-06 at 21:13:50 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2025/11/06/l.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
November 7, 2025 at 3:26 PM
CelesTrak has ephemeris-based SupGP data for all 28 satellites from the Starlink G11-14 launch (2025-254) atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg SFB on 2025-11-06 at 21:13:50 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2025/11/06/l.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
I'll end this thread with this: When you--and especially USSF leadership--dismiss these 'little' errors, you are enabling complacency. There are serious issues with the GP, SP, and CDM data being ignored, as well, as shown at: celestrak.org/publications.... This won't end well for space safety...
November 6, 2025 at 11:18 PM
I'll end this thread with this: When you--and especially USSF leadership--dismiss these 'little' errors, you are enabling complacency. There are serious issues with the GP, SP, and CDM data being ignored, as well, as shown at: celestrak.org/publications.... This won't end well for space safety...
And then 18 SDS effectively changed the catalog numbers for the cross-tag. Once SpaceX changes to use those, the data STILL won't match. SpaceX knows which object is which and 18 SDS needs to match their IDs.
This stuff makes my head hurt. And it happens almost every day. Now you know, too...
This stuff makes my head hurt. And it happens almost every day. Now you know, too...
November 6, 2025 at 11:10 PM
And then 18 SDS effectively changed the catalog numbers for the cross-tag. Once SpaceX changes to use those, the data STILL won't match. SpaceX knows which object is which and 18 SDS needs to match their IDs.
This stuff makes my head hurt. And it happens almost every day. Now you know, too...
This stuff makes my head hurt. And it happens almost every day. Now you know, too...
Today's other errors include "STATLINK" for SSC 66146 and assigning the wrong launch site for all of 2025-240 and adding an extra "9" in the name for SSC 66193 (manual editing rather than M2M).
November 6, 2025 at 11:01 PM
Today's other errors include "STATLINK" for SSC 66146 and assigning the wrong launch site for all of 2025-240 and adding an extra "9" in the name for SSC 66193 (manual editing rather than M2M).
18 SDS 'fixed' this problem by changing SSC 66177 to STARLINK-35352. But they didn't change 2025-242C to 2025-243A, the Owner to US, or the launch site to AFETR.
In our update process, yellow shows changes, which is how we catch most errors. The non-changes almost slipped through...
In our update process, yellow shows changes, which is how we catch most errors. The non-changes almost slipped through...
November 6, 2025 at 10:45 PM
18 SDS 'fixed' this problem by changing SSC 66177 to STARLINK-35352. But they didn't change 2025-242C to 2025-243A, the Owner to US, or the launch site to AFETR.
In our update process, yellow shows changes, which is how we catch most errors. The non-changes almost slipped through...
In our update process, yellow shows changes, which is how we catch most errors. The non-changes almost slipped through...
CelesTrak has ephemeris-based SupGP data for all 29 satellites from the Starlink G6-81 launch (2025-253) atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral on 2025-11-06 at 01:31:10 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2025/11/05/l.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
November 6, 2025 at 10:30 PM
CelesTrak has ephemeris-based SupGP data for all 29 satellites from the Starlink G6-81 launch (2025-253) atop a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral on 2025-11-06 at 01:31:10 UTC: spaceflightnow.com/2025/11/05/l.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
18 SDS has cataloged 3 objects from the launch (2025-252) of QPS-SAR-14 (YACHIHOKO-I) atop an Electron rocket from Māhia Peninsula, NZ on Nov 5 at 1951 UTC: spacenews.com/rocket-lab-l.... SATCAT data can be found at: celestrak.org/satcat/table... (GP data at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen...).
November 6, 2025 at 10:29 PM
18 SDS has cataloged 3 objects from the launch (2025-252) of QPS-SAR-14 (YACHIHOKO-I) atop an Electron rocket from Māhia Peninsula, NZ on Nov 5 at 1951 UTC: spacenews.com/rocket-lab-l.... SATCAT data can be found at: celestrak.org/satcat/table... (GP data at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen...).
18 SDS has cataloged 1 object from the launch (2025-251) of Sentinel-1D atop an Ariane 6 rocket from Europe’s Spaceport, French Guiana on Nov 4 at 2102 UTC: newsroom.arianespace.com/with-ariane-.... SATCAT data at: celestrak.org/satcat/table... (GP data at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen...).
November 6, 2025 at 10:23 PM
18 SDS has cataloged 1 object from the launch (2025-251) of Sentinel-1D atop an Ariane 6 rocket from Europe’s Spaceport, French Guiana on Nov 4 at 2102 UTC: newsroom.arianespace.com/with-ariane-.... SATCAT data at: celestrak.org/satcat/table... (GP data at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen...).
The errors continue. Today, when 18 SDS finally released Starlink data for 2025-243 (Oct 26) & -244 (Oct 28), there is no data for STARLINK-35352--and no slot for it in the SATCAT (66177 already assigned 2025-242C). And 2 of the objects are cross-tagged (ones with names in red).
November 6, 2025 at 4:49 AM
The errors continue. Today, when 18 SDS finally released Starlink data for 2025-243 (Oct 26) & -244 (Oct 28), there is no data for STARLINK-35352--and no slot for it in the SATCAT (66177 already assigned 2025-242C). And 2 of the objects are cross-tagged (ones with names in red).
CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2025-250) of Yaogan-46 atop a Long March-7A rocket from Wenchang Space Launch Site on Nov 3 at UTC: www.china-in-space.com/p/third-beyo.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
November 4, 2025 at 3:15 PM
CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2025-250) of Yaogan-46 atop a Long March-7A rocket from Wenchang Space Launch Site on Nov 3 at UTC: www.china-in-space.com/p/third-beyo.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2025-249) of CMS-03 (GSAT-7R) atop a LVM-3 rocket from Satish Dhawan Space Centre on Nov 2 at 1156 UTC: www.indiatoday.in/science/stor.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
November 4, 2025 at 4:31 AM
CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2025-249) of CMS-03 (GSAT-7R) atop a LVM-3 rocket from Satish Dhawan Space Centre on Nov 2 at 1156 UTC: www.indiatoday.in/science/stor.... Data for the launch can be found at: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....
7/ Of course, a quick visualization check shows both objects converge at about the time of the CMS-03 (GSAT-7R) launch (2025-11-02 at 1156 UTC) and in the vicinity of Satish Dhawan, contradicting my earlier deductions. So, it seems SSC 66310 & 66311 are actually 2025-249A & B.
November 4, 2025 at 3:48 AM
7/ Of course, a quick visualization check shows both objects converge at about the time of the CMS-03 (GSAT-7R) launch (2025-11-02 at 1156 UTC) and in the vicinity of Satish Dhawan, contradicting my earlier deductions. So, it seems SSC 66310 & 66311 are actually 2025-249A & B.
2/ Today we have 2 missing launches (2025-249 & 2025-250) with no SATCAT data and 18 SDS GP data showing the same orbit but 2 conflicting launches. GSAT-7R (2025-249) is replacing GSAT-7 in GEO and it seems unlikely ISRO would launch from 13° N into a higher inclination (21°).
November 4, 2025 at 2:15 AM
2/ Today we have 2 missing launches (2025-249 & 2025-250) with no SATCAT data and 18 SDS GP data showing the same orbit but 2 conflicting launches. GSAT-7R (2025-249) is replacing GSAT-7 in GEO and it seems unlikely ISRO would launch from 13° N into a higher inclination (21°).
1/ It is difficult getting updates out with constant errors in 18 SDS data. Take this example for the Shenzhou-21 launch on Oct 31. The launch date isn't close & the objects show as from different launches (2025-246 vs. 2025-248) with same unique inclination.
November 4, 2025 at 1:50 AM
1/ It is difficult getting updates out with constant errors in 18 SDS data. Take this example for the Shenzhou-21 launch on Oct 31. The launch date isn't close & the objects show as from different launches (2025-246 vs. 2025-248) with same unique inclination.