Using 5 or 10 year inflation breakevens and a range of 1-1.5% for neutral gets you to a range of ~3.2-3.8%. Given the inherent uncertainty in all of those parameters and signs of labor market weakness, a cut seems reasonable.

Bought this mostly as a joke when they first released it in 2019 and never looked back. It's wonderful.

Sandy Springs mayor

I would wager that it's a vanishingly small percentage of people pretending to be outraged by this who actually know the proper term for a parent's cousin without looking it up.